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The Skinny on the Pac-10 Expansion Candidates

Feb
19
2010
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Category: Featured News

pac12logo The Skinny on the Pac 10 Expansion Candidates

Earlier in the week we learned that the Pac-10 might consider expansion as part of their quest to start a TV network or get a better deal. A report out of Salt Lake city says that Utah will be invited to the Pac-10 sooner than later.

This might happen.

I’ve read and gotten my own tips about how there could be a Colorado & Utah to the Pac-10 scenario.

And that could happen.

But that means that the best option turned down the Pac-10: Texas. Only IF (ok, WHEN) Texas is out of the picture do you need to look at other candidates.

You see, Pac-10 expansion is actually a very simple process compared to the Big Ten or other conferences. The reality is that there are only a few options:

1) Texas:
Texas is the only homerun candidate. Granted, they did not join when originally approached in the 1990s (lack of interest by Texas and wasn’t a lock to get all 10 “yes” votes by the Pac-10 schools). And chances are they’d reject an offer. But a new TV network would give Texas a huge payout and include every Texas TV market along with those in Arizona, California, Oregon and Washington.

If Texas says “yes, but only if Texas A&M; joins too”, then offer them the #12 spot. Texas and ANYBODY is a better combination than Utah and Colorado.

2) Colorado:
Another school that rejected the Pac-10 in the 90′s. Perhaps this time they’d bite. Then again, the Big 12 has sent more BCS at-large teams than the Pac-10. But a new network would give each team more money than a 2nd BCS bid would.

3) Utah:
The easy choice. Offers the Utah market in Salt Lake City. As a Mountain West member, they’d jump in a second.

That’s it for realistic candidates.

You can cross-out Cal State schools like Fresno and San Diego St, as well as Boise St. Those schools just don’t fit the mold of what the Pac-10 will be looking for in academics. The rest of the WAC is out of the pool as well.

And while some writers might mention BYU as a candidate, it’s highly unlikely that they’d get the 10 necessary votes. And their ex-AD thinks BYU is out as well.

So really you have 4 options:


1) Texas & Colorado: if they both accepted, it’s a perfect world
2) Texas & Texas A&M;: If Texas gives an ultimatum and forces the Pac-10 to invite Texas A&M;, do it.
3) Colorado & Utah: it makes the most sense and seems within reach. If Colorado accepts, you add Denver and Salt Lake City.
4) No expansion: if Colorado declines and the only option is Utah, then stay at 10. Utah would make a fine #11 but there would be no quality #12 candidate left to select.

The hopeful and most likely option…Colorado and Utah as the #11 and #12 Pac-10 schools.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13611145289683288344 michael

    One thing is crystal clear: the Mountain West would be wise to go ahead and invite Boise State into the fold. That would obviously help their chances at a BCS autobid, but it would soften the blow should Utah, BYU, or TCU be plucked away.

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  • Anonymous

    Agreed on the academic side of the equation. That's why it may be unlikely that the B10 or Pac-10 expand at all. Any Pac-10 expansion requires unanimous approval of all 10 members, and Stanford has been known to throw a monkey wrench in the works before.

    We sports fans can speculate and propose new conference alignments all we want, but in the end the decisions will be made by a bunch of academicians, not sports guys.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13611145289683288344 michael

    I completely get it that these expansions are all about money for sports, but I think people are greatly underestimating the role that the CIC (Big Ten's academic counterpart, plus the U. of Chicago) will play.

    The CIC is every bit a financial giant in academics as the Big Ten is in athletics. The schools team up to obtain hundreds of millions of dollars A YEAR in research grants, and their collaboration is extremely effective. The Big Ten went 40 years between adding Michigan State and adding Penn State, and PSU would never have been invited if it couldn't make the CIC stronger than it was without them. Even with the opportunity for a rounded-out 12–and a conference championship game–the Big Ten still hasn't expanded since inviting PSU in 1990, and I believe the CIC is a huge reason for that.

    The CIC has every right to say, "No, we don't want this school or that school to join us," if they have any inclination that a certain school would be a wink link.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716145501337728000 Matt Peloquin

    sorry, meant West & East

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716145501337728000 Matt Peloquin

    I hear ya on Texas Tech. While I don't think they are as attractive in a 12 or 14 team expansion over Texas, Texas A&M;, Colorado and Utah, I do think they would make plenty of sense if indeed there were ever a push to 16 team conferences.

    A Pac-16 would be a strong league with:

    West: WSU, UW, Oregon, OSU, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC
    West: Texas, Texas A&M;, Texas Tech, New Mexico, Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

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  • Anonymous

    A lot of people outside Texas seem to severely underestimate the fan base and television appeal of Texas Tech. True, UT and A&M; are the unquestioned leaders, but Tech is a strong No. 3, in a state with 25 million people.

    Tech has a huge fan base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, as well as in Lubbock and West Texas. Its fan base in the DFW area is larger than that of TCU and SMU combined.

    In 2008, Tech was involved in three of the top 10 rated college football games. Tech had more TV viewers IN DALLAS than UT did in Austin and Florida did in Tampa/St. Pete. Source: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/sports-wrap-ncaa-football-season-review-heisman-preview/

    Its recent bowl game against Michigan State attracted ESPN's highest ratings ever for a bowl game. More than 5.5 million households tuned in. Assuming a "household" comprises 2.5 people, that's 14 million viewers, and somehow I don't think most of them were tuning in to watch a 6-6 Michigan State team.

    Assuming Tech appeals to only 15 to 20 percent of the Texas viewing audience, that's 3.75 to 5 million people, comparable to an entire state the size of Colorado, Oklahoma, Louisiana or Oregon.

    Bottom line: I don't think UT and A&M; are going to the Big 10 or anywhere else. But if they do, Texas Tech would be a very attractive option for, say, the Pac-10.

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  • Anonymous

    Whatever Brice! I don't think you are anymore of an authority than anyone else at this point.

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  • http://live.com Nathan Brice

    Well, Colorado State might be the team that would replace Colorado in the Big XII. If it gets into a BCS conference, the rest will take care of itself, believe me.

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  • Anonymous

    Utah is an easy addition to the PAC-10. Colorado will be tougher to convince. Although not ideal, if the PAC-10 still wanted the Colorado market they could go for Colorado State. Utah and Colorado State are former rivals from the WAC days for the Arizona schools. A Colorado State vs USC game could be played in Denver. Possibly other games could be palyed in Denver as well. Obviously Texas and Colorado would be the home run. Barring that, Utah is the most likely candidate and pairing them with Colorado State could be a viable option. Colorado State would have to beef up its athletic program but both Arizona schools had to do the same when they joined in the late 70's. Colorado State could be a bigger athletic program than Colorado if they were to join the PAC-10, it would be a huge boost recruiting wise.

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  • Anonymous

    If anyone is going anywhere it will be Utah and BYU going to the PAC 10. It was just a few years back that Presidents of both Utah and BYU complained that the Mountain West Network, and CBS Sports coverage of the Mountain West Conference wasn't getting in enough households, and wasn't growing either on cable or satellite.

    The last time the PAC 10 wanted to expand, Stanford stepped in and pushed the expansion plan off the table with their veto power. If, and I said if, the PAC 10 wanted to expand, they need to persuade Stanford, otherwise, no deal.

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  • http://live.com Nathan Brice

    None of that will happen.

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  • Anonymous

    Let's say the Big 12 had the worst nightmare possible come true and Texas and Colorado both left for the Pac 10, while Missouri left for the Big Ten. It's not likely but not outside the realm of possibility, either.

    In that case, Iowa State, Kansas, K-State, Nebraska, OU, OSU, Tech, Baylor, and A&M; would be the Big 12 leftovers. A whole lot of TV viewers would be lost. With their league greatly weakened, I don't see why the remaining B12 schools wouldn't try to just fend for themselves and create/join the best league they could regardless of what happens to each other.

    I don't know what the name of the league would be, but here's what could be an interesting 14-team conference could be: West–SD State, BYU, Utah, Colorado State, Air Force, Texas Tech, TCU. East–Nebraska, Kansas, K-State, Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas A&M;, Houston.

    Heck, the former Mountain West members could even try to figure out a way to retain their network for this new league, only with wider distribution.

    UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming: Welcome back to the WAC! It won't be that bad; you'll only get stomped by one team a year (Boise) instead of three (Utah, BYU, and TCU). The WAC would be a 12-member league.

    Baylor, you get to replace Houston in C-USA. At least you get to play Rice & SMU.

    Iowa State, try to figure out a way to get into the Big East.

    And no matter what, is there someone out there who can figure out how to get La. Tech out of the WAC? The Sun Belt would better for them than that far-flung league.

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  • Anonymous

    In terms of putting itself in a good position for TV contract negotiations, I think the Big 12 would be in big, big trouble if it lost Texas, and espeically if A&M; left, too.

    I think if anyone leaves, they'd be worse off no matter who they get as a replacement. That said, the Big 12 could survive without Colorado or Missouri because while their markets and fanbases are large, they're not life-or-death. If CU left, maybe they'd try to cut their losses of Rocky Mountain viewers by inviting Air Force or Colorado State. Maybe they'd go for Utah or BYU. They could also take a chance inviting a team to their east like Louisville or Memphis in hopes of gaining a following in a region where, like Texas, football is unquestionably king.

    I simply don't see TCU being invited because TCU adds very few new viewers; they wouldn't begin to replace the lost market share from Missouri and/or Coloradoo. I also don't see Arkansas leaving. That school is getting fat and happy on the cash the SEC TV contract is bringing it.

    But losing Texas to the Big Ten, and ESPECIALLY losing both UT AND A&M; to the Pac 10, would be devastating. The Big 12 could not count on Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, SMU, Rice, UTEP, and Houston COMBINED to deliver even close the number of viewers it gets because of UT and A&M;.

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  • http://live.com Nathan Brice

    Texas is not going anywhere. Let's just make that clear. Utah will jump in a heartbeat. The problem comes in finding a dancing partner. Colorado may be the only choice. Colorado has traditionally recruited well in some Pac-10 areas. They would likely be in the "Pac-12 North" with Utah, Washington, Washington, Oregon, and Oregon State. The "Pac-12 South" would be Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State. It would make travel a bit easier for both schools if they joined. What would happen after that is anyone's guess. I could talk more about it, but the post would be WAAAY too long.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716145501337728000 Matt Peloquin

    I wish Bevo! But you and Nathan are the biggest contributors here but aren't on the forums, so what does that tell you ;)

    The forums are where it all started and I would on occasion post an article (hard coded HTML back then). Some ideas just need to be put out to a broader public that the niche forums don't cover.

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  • bevo

    I have noted this comment here and elsewhere: who is driving the expansion bus? If it is presidents, then, yes, the decision comes down to Utah, Colorado, and Texas.

    I heard a story that Stanford scuttled the original Texas bid.

    I am not sure why Texas and Texas A&M; are paired. Remember, Texas A&M; was supposed to join the SEC with Arkansas. Hence, the delay between the Arkansas announcement and the South Carolina announcement.

    The Big XII is the Ottoman Empire at this point. All sides want to nibble at its frontier. If Texas were smart, then they would jump to the Pac 10.

    If the Big 11 takes 1 to 3 members of the Big XII, then the Big XII title game is done. They simply do not have an expansion bid. Unless….

    The Big XII could persuade BYU and Utah to join the Bg XII, while swapping out Baylor for TCU.

    Different scenario now. CU and Texas stay. Short of that scenario, Texas has got to go because it will be a mad rush to the Big XII exit.

    NU and Mizzou leave for the Big 11. The SEC grabs Louisville or Florida State along with Texas A&M.; Texas and CU jump to the Pac 10.

    The Big XII – now gasping – grabs Utah, BYU, New Mexico, and CSU. TCU still gets swapped out for Baylor.

    The lifeless husk of the MWC cobbles together the good teams (Nevada, Boise State, Fresno State, and Hawaii) from the WAC.

    Matt, do you post these stories just to drive traffic to the forums? ;)

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