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NCAA Tournament Seems Set on 96 Teams

Apr
01
2010
By
Category: Featured News, NCAA News

ncaa NCAA Tournament Seems Set on 96 Teams

Based on NCAA Greg Shaheen’s outline of a proposed expansion, it seems that the big move is ready to be made. Rarely do you see so much detail being made public, unless you plan on implementing it.

The vitals:
* 65 teams to 96 teams
* Top 32 seeds get 1st round byes
* Tournament would start on Thursday and Friday for the bottom 64
* The winners would play the Top 32 seeds in the next round on Saturday and Sunday
* The next round would take place on Tuesday and Wednesday
* Next round would take place on Thursday and Friday
* No decision on locations for the early round (if they will be the same as the top 32 teams)
* NIT will likely be eliminated
* More specifics will come out about revenue sharing

What we don’t know is what teams will get in.

It would seem that the conference tournament champions will retain their auto-bids with the remainder of the bids coming from an at-large pool.

In other words, those 5 bubble teams that are left out each year…they are now in…along with 26 other schools.

But others are urging for all conference champions and conference tournament champions to get a bid. Don’t expect to see this happening since a conference champion from a lower conference like the Atlantic Sun, could just rest their players, lose a game, and all of a sudden your’ got USC-Upstate and Kennesaw St. in the tournament. Both teams would likely be ranked in the 250-300 range and not in the top 96. If the tournament is about getting the best teams in (after the 31 autobids), then you can scrap the Coach K plan of (2) autobids per conference.

Oddly, while expanding to 96 teams might seem like a way to water down the pool, you might actually see more upsets.

Take UNC this year. They were left out of the NCAA tournament, and were a 4 seed in the 32 team NIT.

If the NCAA field were at 96 teams, that means UNC would have fit into a 16 seed and played in the opening round. Had they won, they could then have been #16 playing against #1 Kentucky. There has never been an upset of a #1 seed. But that’s because they are usually games of strong power conference teams against the weakest teams in the tournament. UNC had a down year, but they would have had a better chance of beating Kentucky this year than #16 seed East Tennessee St. did.

Another casualty of a 96 team field is the NIT tournament. Sure, it’s not the NCAA tournament, but it still carries much tradition and will be sad to see go. Those players who advance to the Final Four get a trip to New York as a reward for their hard work. Now, they’ll get a 1st round NCAA tournament game  in a 1st round location. Perhaps Dayton will be the trivia answer to “Who was the last NIT champion?”.

The big winner in all this could be ESPN. They’ll make a hard push to secure the TV rights since they’ll have multiple broadcast options such as ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2. Say good bye to the Women’s Tournament on ESPN if they can take the mens away from CBS.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716145501337728000 Matt Peloquin

    Michael, one point about the A10, is that while it might seem "top heavy", it was just a few years ago that GW made, what, 3 straight NCAA appearances. Not that long ago that St. Joes was a #2 seed. St. Bonaventure got in this decade as well as an at-large. Umass plenty in the 90's. Of the 14 teams, only Fordham and Duquesne haven't made it the past 12 years.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13611145289683288344 michael

    Matt, thank you for responding so quickly. That was a heck of a game, huh? So close to a championship for the hometown heroes.

    Personally, I'd like to see Butler in the Mo. Valley. The travel budget would be so much more manageable than the A-10 but would still give Butler much more TV exposure than it's getting as a Horizon League program.

    I see no reason why Saint Louis would be need to be paired with Butler if the MVC wanted to expand. Eleven isn't an ideal number for a conference, but the Big Ten has managed at that number for almost 20 years without too much trouble.

    The MVC seems as though it would provide Butler the ideal situation: a league challenging enough to yield multiple NCAA bids, a comparable travel schedule to its current one, a group of teams who would help ensure more Hinkle Fieldhouse sellouts (considering the opponents would often be in the Top 25), and more built-in TV opportunities such as the Mountain West-Mo Valley Challenge.

    Butler might not win the Mo. Valley annually like it does in the Horizon, but it could help ensure Butler more long-term stability. With Butler, a national runner-up and probable new national power, the Missouri Valley could exert itself as a "high major," placing themselves alongside the likes of the A-10, Mountain West, and WAC and ahead of the WCC.

    As for the A-10, you summed it up well: the league is too expensive for Butler. Plus, the A-10 is awfully big as it is. And when you get right down to it, how much better is the A-10 than the MVC, anyway? For a 14-team league, it's extremely top-heavy: Dayton, Richmond, Temple, Xavier, then tons of dead weight.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/03716145501337728000 Matt Peloquin

    Michael.

    It's a good question. But it's one with no easy answer.

    There are certainly Butler fans who have been vocal about wanting to be in a conference like the A10. It would allow them to compete with similar regional schools like Xavier, Dayton, and St. Louis. The A10 had 6 teams tourney worthy until 3 weeks to-go in the season, with a 7th, SLU, making a push.

    And then you have the MVC. Butler and St. Louis would seem like idea fits in what would be a 12 team conference.

    And then there is the Horizon. Butler is in a great spot in the Horizon, much like Gonzaga is in the WCC. The difference is that Butler has sustained a good program while only having to spend $1.8 million per year. Gonzaga has to fly to all it's games for all sports…Butler can take buses to all the Horizon schools.

    So the problems could be economic.

    The A10 would mean Butler would have to travel as far south as Charlotte, northeast as Amherst for all it's sports.

    Travel in the MVC would be better than the A10, but still worse than the Horizon. And is the MVC THAT MUCH of a step up from the Horizon? It's an improvement, that's for sure.

    Then you have the issues of competition. Would Butler sustain if they were all of a sudden NOT the best in their league? You've got some strong A10 programs like Xavier, Dayton and Temple. Charlotte can rebound with a good hire and others like Richmond and SLU are strong.

    And then you have the other conferences pros and cons:

    Would the public MVC schools want to give up power to the private schools by adding (2) private schools like Butler and SLU (if SLU really did want to leave the A10)? The MVC could add NDSU and SDSU and have an all-sports league with only 4 private basketball affiliate members.

    In the A10, the fans aren't that big on the idea of Butler.

    If it means expanding to 15 or 16, the choice is "no". Oddly enough, if a team left, the fans seem to favor NOT replacing that team and going smaller. Many in the A10 would prefer a more compact 10-12 team conference over the 14 teams. But they wouldn't want that at the expense of the top programs like Xavier, Dayton, SLU, Temple, Charlotte, Richmond, etc. If you recall, the A10 was content at 12. But added SLU and charlotte as a way to protect themselves from a raid if there were a future Big East split.

    My personal opinion is that I'd like to see Butler in the A10. I think they'd stabilize the midwest region of the league with Xavier, Dayton and SLU.

    But it would be a chore. Butler's basketball budget is $1.8 million…that's HALF of St. Bonaventures. So Butler would have a way to go to get on par with the top A10 programs. and they'd risk the stable winning they'd had in the process.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13611145289683288344 michael

    Matt,

    I would love to get your opinion on whether Butler's rise, regardless of the outcome of tonight's game, could prompt other leagues to invite the Bulldogs to join them in the near future.

    Realistically, there are only two leagues out of the other 30 that could be potential new homes for the Bulldogs: the A-10 and the Missouri Valley. All others would be either a downgrade from the Horizon or unrealistic due to geography or other hangups like a requirement for FBS football, for which Butler has zero plans.

    So Matt, do you think Butler would consider leaving for the A-10 or MVC if given the opportunity? What would Butler's motives be: more exposure on television, more challenging schedules, more exposure in more regions? What might be Butler's drawbacks? (As a personal thought, I think games against Temple and Xavier or Northern Iowa and Creighton could help fill Hinkle Fieldhouse much better than the Horizon League.)

    Likewise, is Butler's run to this game, especially if it wins, enough to make the MVC or A-10 willing to invite them? Why or why not? Which league would be more likely to extend an invitation? Would Butler help either league leverage a better TV deal? Do you think both leagues might conclude an expansion to the odd numbers of 11 (for the MVC) and 15 (for the A-10) would make inviting Butler undesirable?

    No matter what, I do not see Butler's run this year as a flash-in-the-pan. They're a lot more like a Xavier or Gonzaga program than they are to a Davidson or George Mason. They may not get back to the Final Four any time soon; then again, even Kentucky hasn't been since '98, and IU has only been once since '87. Butler should be a Top 20 program for years to come. Shouldn't the A-10 and MVC at least consider?

    Thanks,
    Michael B
    Tried-and-true Florida State fan
    Proud Appalachian State alum
    Very impressed resident of Indianapolis

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/15051593395176491684 jimBG84

    Reward regular season conf champs who also win their tourny with a home game in their first round unless they are already seeded in the top 32. If you givem a monetary incentive you won't havew to worry about teams laying down.

    I'm not against 96 given we 320+ teams in D1a. However, I think they could have increased revenue by simply extending the length of the dance and really televising all 64 games. Today, we really do not see all the early round games. There are just too many played at similar ties. For each 4 games, we get glimpses of 3 while watching most of 1 game.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/08141427447547237948 Michael

    "Say good bye to the Women's Tournament on ESPN if they can take the mens away from CBS."

    And that's why I think the men's tournament will stay on CBS. The NCAA does not want to give up the publicity for the women's tournament. No over the air network will carry it.

    CBS will use the expanded men's tourney to get clearance for CBS College. Look for NBCU, which is owned by Comcast, to get into the act.

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