Brent,

Every fan is entitled to an opinion of what they would LIKE to see happen. It's what defines being a fan.

But the data we have does not make your opinion a fact. Put aside all the criteria the conferences use to make the decisions that unfortunately for Butler, do not support them as a Big East fit. Instead, we simply need to look at the fact that the Big East non-football schools came up with a list of schools…just a few months ago…and Butler was not on that list. You might not like that Butler was not on their radar, and other Butler fans might not either. That is their right as a fan…to not like something. But not liking something doesn't make anything less of a fact. I tried to provide you with some of the rationale the Big East decision makers we're discussing might have used. But that is merely an attempt to provide some indight. All that matters is that the Big East non-basketball schools, the ones who would be making the decisions, have excluded Butler from their view of the future…and that was just a few months ago. There is no argument to be had when our personal opinions dont' mean a thing here…only the Big East non-football news that we do have matters.

And as a fan, it might be an interesting exercise to look into why the NCAA, which is located in Indianapolis, has Dayton as it's location for the play-in games. You're findings will show many of the reasons the Dayton program is so strong financially despite the lack of on-court success.

I also encourage you to check out the various opinions of the Big East and A10 fanbases when it comes to Butler. You'll find some threads, including ones I posted on to support the inclusion of Butler, in which the vast majority of those conference fans opposed the inclusion of Butler.

All this said. Things change. Something could happen that changes the opinions of many of the schools making the decisions. And Butler could all of a sudden find themselves in the position you hope they will be in, despite the information we have right now that states otherwise.

I'm with you that Notre Dame is the key factor. We already know they want nothing to do with remaining with the basketball-only schools. But if the football schools left the Big East (via Big Ten or ACC expansion…with the leftovers going to CUSA) or formed a new conference, that is the move that would likely push Notre Dame into the Big Ten. And that could cause some seismic shifts to all the other conferences.

Yes, Brent. Things have changed over the past 3 years, which is why i place less emphasis on the argument you made about Butler over the past 15 years.

But what we have to work with are the facts. and the fact is that the Big East non-football schools had a list created only a few months ago. And Butler was not on that list. So it's a safe assumption to use that data, which is more important than any of the qualifying data, to say that if Xavier and Dayton are on the list, and Butler is not, that it's a much higher number than 0% chance that Xavier and Dayton would be courted by the Big East before Butler.

Comment Part 2:

We already know Butler has an athletic budget that would rank them at or near the bottom of the Atlantic 10. You might not know this, but Butler's athletic budget is less than schools like Long Island, Quinnipiac, LaSalle, Drexel, Cal-Irvine and many others.

Conference like the Big East factor these budgets into their projections. A budget serves as a gauge for commitment at a desired level for a conference. This is why even a conference like the A10, an admitted step down from the Big East, has not made a huge push for Butler over the 15 period you mentioned. Yet, they've added a number of schools over that period.

And then there is television revenue. Despite Butler's success on the court, it has not translated into more revenue outside of the NCAA tournament shares that are distributed to all the Horizon members. Sure, it's not like the Horizon has a TV deal like the other conferences where the schools make a large profit. So TV revenue falls outside of Butlers control right now. But the magic word again is "market penetration". Is Butler going to give the Big East a large number of TV sets in Indianapolis? Likely not. But Xavier and Dayton do deliver the significant market penetration into the Cincy and Dayton markets. St. Louis does a fair share for their DMA as well.

You need look no further than the Big East itself to see the importance on an array of factors involved on their decision making process. Just look at the last basketball school brought in: DePaul. Butler has obviously done more in the past 15 years than DePaul, right? Yet the conference was ecstatic about adding the Chicago market. But DePaul wasn't a strong program, so how did they get in? Again, it comes back to the Big East projections that DePaul could deliver a portion of the Chicago market to the league.

The days when conferences make leap of faith moves is far in our past now. Sure, all the current methodology could be thrown out the window this year…we've seen changes before. But if a school is not being targeted by a conference below the Big East…it's a safe assumption to say that for now, unless there is a colossal change in the landscape of conference realignment decision making by the conferences, that such school is not going to be targeted by conferences "above" them. And that's the case with Butler right now. They need to take this on court success from the past 15 years that you mentioned, and find a way to filter that into their athletic budget (as well as the facility upgrades you brought up). Look what Xavier, Dayton and St. Louis have done with their various levels of success over that period. they aren't in the Big East, but they all have great facilities. And more importantly, Xavier and Dayton are extremely profitable programs EVEN with such a high athletic budget. Butlers profit numbers can look real good when they are spending so little money…and that's not going to cut it if the Big East is ever to one day be a goal for them.

All this said, it doesn't take me out of the "fan" group that would love to see a Midwest non-football conference with schools like Butler, Xavier, Dayton, SLU, Notre Dame, DePaul, Marquette, etc.

"it will take more than a single championship final appearance"

Honestly?

Over the last 15 years, Butler has not only averaged 23 wins per year, but also has only missed the post season 2 times during the stretch (9 NCAAs/4 NITs), advancing past the 1st Rnd every time but once since 2000 (Mike Miller game). (2 Sweet 16s and a NCAA runner-up)

Over the last decade, they sit 24th for most weeks in the Top 25 and 14th over the last 5 years.

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Put aside the two A10 schools for a second, because they're not even in that sort of conversation. How many BIG EAST programs have that profile? There are some, there aren't many.

I will concede that Xavier is a very attractive fit, coming with a winning profile and a program to match. But, and I say this with the utmost respect because I really appreciate your board and use it all of the time, there is 0% chance that Dayton and/or St Louis would gain entrance before Butler. If this is primarily a basketball league that we are talking about (and it is), there is just no comparison between the programs.

Butler would have no interest in joining the A-10, it is an ill-conceived conference that is only moderately more stable in its configuration as the Big East.

Simply, barring possibly Xavier, Butler is just superior to all of the A-10 programs.

With access to the Indianapolis market that is completely unserved at the moment by the conference, Butler presents (outside of the athletics side of this) some intriguing selling points for the league.

BTW, Butler is undergoing major increases in budget and facilities currently. Brad Stevens contract that extends to 21/22 is in excess of 1mm per and there are plans for a 10mm dollar project on Hinkle Fieldhouse.

With no disrespect to Dayton or St Louis (or anyone else for that matter), there's not much comparison

You can take it to the bank that Butler would seek membership in that Big East configuration (and would be selected)

Who knows what will really happen. That is just one scenario that COULD happen.

Here we go again, maybe. If the Big Ten wants to expand, it would likely go to 16 teams. Some people may wonder how this will happen. Well, here is an idea. Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pittsburgh go to this new conference, whatever you want to call it. This forces the hand of the SEC first. The SEC then adds South Florida, Louisville, West Virginia, and perhaps Memphis. The ACC then adds UConn, leaving the Big East DOA. The ACC also adds Temple, East Carolina, and Marshall. This leaves us with three 16 team conferences. The Texas-Oklahoma conference adds Houston, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, UTEP, and SMU. That makes four superconferences. The new Pac-12 then adds Nevada, Fresno State, UNLV, and Boise State. That makes five superconferences. Every other team is left scrambling. Will any of this happen? I would doubt it. This is just one scenario that COULD happen. The moves made this year were not the end of this. It was not even the beginning of the end. It was, however, perhaps the end of the beginning.