State of the WAC – Part 2:
What Else Could Possibly Go Wrong?

The quick answer: EVERYTHING. 

As we’ve seen in every other instance of conference realignment, there is always the impending “trickle down”. When one conference at the top of the pecking order makes a move, the next conference below follows and so on. For the WAC, they are clearly at the very bottom of the pecking order now. 

What started with the Fresno St. and Nevada departures, and perhaps continuing with Hawaii, loyalty and unity are no longer factors. We’ve reached the boiling point where schools will now consider all their options. Schools like LA Tech who have passed on the very idea of joining the Sunbelt as they wait for a CUSA invite, might have to make a move. Other schools like Idaho and SJSU are crossing their fingers as they have less options.

So what else could happen?

Here’s a look at a few direct scenarios in which other conference invite current WAC schools as well as the “trickle down” effect in which subsequent conferences seek WAC schools as replacements:

Multiple sources have confirmed that TCU and the Big East have had discussions about the Ft. Worth school joining as that conferences 9th football and likely 17th all sports member. Sources have reported this week that the talks might have escalated and an announcement pending the completion of the football season. If TCU leaves the MWC and Hawaii joins, the conference will have 10 football members and 9 for other sports. The MWC could always bring in Denver, right in the heart of their footprint, to be the 10th non-football member. However, reports today are pointing to the MWC expanding to 12 football schools.

Mountain West: If TCU leaves the MWC, the conference could expand by (2) to get to 12 from a pool including Utah St., Houston, UTEP, SMU, New Mexico St.
CUSA: seeks 1-2 replacements from Sunbelt & WAC
Sunbelt: seeks 1-2 replacements from WAC

If TCU leaves, the MWC could remain at 10 for football with Hawaii and 9 for all other sports. But then again, they could expand to 12 with two more schools and stage a conference championship game, as sources today are claiming. Fox recently agreed to a $25 million a year deal with the Big Ten to televise their championship game. If the MWC could get even $2 million from FOX, it might justify further expansion.

If the Mountain West expands, they have a number of options. Utah St. remains high on the list to replace some of the market loss of the BYU and Utah departures. Houston seemed like a top option and remains it as long as TCU is still a member. But without TCU in the conference, there might be less of a desire to expand east. Then again, the MWC could replace TCU with both Houston and SMU, maintaining some access to the Dallas market via SMU and gaining some exposure in the Houston market. And if CUSA loses 1-2 schools, the trickle down starts again. CUSA would again consider Temple, as well as schools like North Texas and LA Tech. And if CUSA brought in North Texas, the Sunbelt might then bring in LA Tech and or New Mexico St. Even UTSA and Texas St. could be on the radar for the Sunbelt or even CUSA at that point.

Mountain West: If TCU remains in the MWC, the conference would have 11 schools and could bring in Utah St., UTEP, or Houston as the 12th member;
CUSA: seeks 1 replacement from Sunbelt of WAC
Sunbelt: seeks 1 replacement from WAC

If TCU opts to remain in the MWC (as unlikely as that seems), they would likely seek a 12th member so they could stage a conference championship game. And it makes sense as 12 for football and 11 for basketball would be manageable and generate extra revenue. Houston would be the top option, to partner in Texas with TCU. Utah St., another option, could be brought in to replace the lost markets due to the BYU and Utah departures. UTEP could serve as a bridge from New Mexico to TCU as well. And if either Houston or UTEP left CUSA, that conference might look at Temple and North Texas, but also would highly consider WAC members as repalcements.

LA Tech and/or NMSU say “enough is enough” to the WAC, leave for Sunbelt.

For years, LA Tech has scoffed at the idea of joining what they considered a bottom feeder Sunbelt conference. But overnight, things changed. All of a sudden, even with UTSA and Texas St. joining, the Sunbelt might be more appealing than the WAC. So if Hawaii leaves, perhaps LA Tech reaches out to the Sunbelt and applies for membership. NMSU, seeing the writing on the wall now that Hawaii is leaving, could do the same.

LA Tech & NMSU say enough is enough and head to Sunbelt; Sunbelt supplies lifeline to UTSA and Texas St.


It might not be so much of a stretch. The Sunbelt is currently set to be 10 football members with the addition of South Alabama’s football program. 14 is not the ideal number, but in adding the (4) WAC schools, the conference would be positioned well for a future CUSA raid. They would also be able to divide into (2) regional divisions:
East: FAU, FIU, USA, Troy, MTSU, WKU, Arkansas St, *UALR (if they aren’t in the Southland or Summit by then)
West: NMSU, North Texas, UTSA, Texas St., LA Tech, ULL, ULM

Big East Expansion: Adds UCF or Houston and TCU
CUSA replaces UCF with 1 school from pool of North Texas, NMSU or LA Tech
MWC replaces TCU with Utah St. or Houston from CUSA
Sunbelt: replaces departing school with 1 WAC replacement

In addition to TCU joining the Big East, an upgrade by Villanova as the 10th Big East football member is on the plate. But if Villanova passes on the upgrade option due to the obvious economic concerns, UCF is expected to be targeted as well as Houston. If UCF leaves CUSA, reports 3 months ago said Temple was a likely candidate in either a football-only or all-sports capacity if any members left. This would certainly make CUSA members ECU and Marshall happy. But it’s also likely that CUSA could bring in North Texas from the Sunbelt. If that happens, the Sunbelt might look at bringing in 1-3 from the pool of LA Tech, NMSU, UTSA and Texas St. CUSA might also directly invite LA Tech or UTSA. And of course, the MWC would replace TCU as well as adding 2 new schools to reach the 12 school number reported today.

Big East Split & Expansion: if Big East expanded to 12 after a split from the basketball schools, that might include up to 3 CUSA schools such as UCF, Houston, Memphis and ECU.
CUSA: replaces 3 departing schools with 3 from WAC and Sunbelt
Sunbelt: replaces and departing schools with WAC schools


TCU and Villanova appear to remain at the top of the Big East wishlist in their planned expansion to 10 football schools. But if Villanova passes on an upgrade, the Big East will look at Houston (regional partner for TCU) or UCF. And if the Big East was real bold and expanded to 12 schools, you could see Memphis in the mix as well as perhaps ECU. It would seem that if the Big East expanded to 12, CUSA would have at least 3 openings. And the candidates are all the same names: North Texas, LA Tech, UTSA, Texas St., NMSU, Arkansas St., etc. The WAC would likely lose schools directly to CUSA and indirectly as others flee for the Sunbelt.

There are a number of different scenarios that could play out…too many different permutations to include in one spot. But one thing is clear: there are WAC schools, that even during these dark times, are poised to have future options.

The foundation is being built right now for what seems to be a minor consolidation of schools in various regions with the MWC movement these past few months and the Big East looking to expand from 8 to 10. The new schools added to these conferences might not come directly from the WAC, but the WAC’s placement at the bottom of the trickle down order means they are likely destined to have future membership changes. For schools like Idaho, they’ll just have to hope that the consolidation sticks to the regional trends.

Read More:
An now on to the winners and losers in the WAC shuffle…