Things have settled from the movement last year with the Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West and WAC. But there are still some aftershocks. The Big East is expected to add a 10th football school (Villanova tops the list, a CUSA school are the likely 2nd option). The MAC is considering adding FCS upgrade UMass as it’s 14th member. And now news that the Sun Belt is considering adding an 11th football school (and 12th overall member as UALR does not sponsor football).

Per a source speaking with the Miami Herald, the Sun Belt is only considering established FBS football schools, and schools from within the current footprint. You can read between the lines what that means:

This would exclude the newest FBS upgrades UTSA and Texas St., which as slated to join the WAC. It would also exclude Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia St., ODU and JMU, schools that are considering upgrading to FBS at some level, or JMU, which has been less public about upgrading but has the best infrastructure to upgrade.

If “warm weather” meaning the current Sun Belt footprint is the desired location, then we can exclude a school like Temple which has been rumored to be considering leaving the MAC football-only alliance is a better opportunity arose.

We can rule out any CUSA schools at this time as that conference is light years ahead of the Sun Belt. And while there has been some tension between the few eastern schools (ECU, UCF, Marshall) about being in a predominantly western conference, it’s doubtful that any of those schools would downgrade their revenue by joining the Sun Belt.

So that leaves only schools in the WAC.

And only one fits what the Sun Belt is considering: LA Tech.

The Sun Belt has long wanted LA Tech, as the conference already hosts Louisiana schools ULL and ULM. But LA Tech has been hesitant to join as the WAC was a superior conference and grossing BCS revenue thanks to Boise St. But with Fresno St., Nevada, Boise St. and Hawaii all leaving, the WAC has been in trouble. They’d brought in UTSA and Texas St. for football, had their eyes on Lamar, and brought in Denver for non-football sports.

So perhaps it’s time for LA Tech to consider the Sun Belt as a CUSA invite does not seem to be on the horizon.

The only other school that fits into the Sun Belt expansion wishlist would be New Mexico St. A bit west of the current footprint, NMSU would fit in nicely with North Texas already a member. But it would seem that LA Tech would be the primary target.

If the Sun Belt has ideas other than LA Tech, it would mean they would have to either consider an FCS upgrade such as Charlotte, Georgia St. or Appalachian St. Or perhaps they would think outside the current footprint and look north at a football-only option like Temple. Marshall in CUSA would be a nice fit with WKU and MTSU, but leaving CUSA would be unlikely. The MAC has a number of schools the Sun Belt might like, but it would be difficult for a MAC team to justify leaving the comfy confines of their tight knit regional conference.