Big 12 Expansion Candidates
A quick recap of the Big 12 expansion situation:
* The Big 12 has reinstated the expansion committee, which was shelved when Oklahoma first threatened to leave.
* It is understood that if the Big 12 expands to 10 with a single replacement for Texas A&M, and that #10 school is either BYU or TCU, that the revenue figures for the television contract will remain as they are now.
* BYU is considered the top choice, with TCU now working it’s way into the #2 position as backup. But BYU is reportedly less interested in the Big 12 due to stability questions…as well as being forced to move it’s non-football sports out of the WCC.
* Missouri is in no way, at this time, fully committed to the Big 12. The SEC remains an option until all the agreements are formalized and signed by all Big 12 schools. This will require regents meetings by each Big 12 school, so it will take time. Meanwhile, with the instability 2 years in a row, Missouri would be wise to take the SEC opportunity now given the stable and lucrative nature of SEC conference membership.
* In the search for a 10th school, the process is not expected to need to go beyond BYU or TCU. If BYU were offered first and rejected, TCU would accept. If TCU offered first, TCU would accept.
* The “lower” Big 12 schools are stronger in support of expansion to 12. This would bring more stability in the event of a future departure. Oklahoma and OSU are proven flight risks to the Pac-12 or SEC. Missouri to the SEC or Big Ten (should Big Ten ever opt to expand again). Texas is a risk for not only Pac-12 and potentially the Big Ten, but also as a football independent via the LHN revenue. In adding 3 schools such as TCU, BYU and Louisville, or TCU, Louisville and WVU, the Big 12 would be safe if even 4 schools left the conference.
* Texas is less interested in expanding beyond 10 schools, which is why 10 seems to be the magic number.
* It is unknown if the networks would increase the annual value of the television contracts (average payout per school) if the Big 12 were to expand to 12. But one can assume that if BYU or TCU were viewed as equal to Texas A&M, then adding both and a more northeast school like Louisville would be an option. However, loss of Texas power via more members is certainly a concern by Texas as some conscious level.
* Because there is less of a push to go to 12, some seemingly lucrative 12 school scenarios so not seem to have as much support such as: Boise St/BYU/TCU, Boise St/Air Force/TCU, TCU/BYU/Louisville, Louisville/TCU/WVU
* Assuming something strange and drastic happened and both BYU and TCU were not available, the Big 12 would look at other candidates for #10 out of the Boise St., Louisville, Houston, SMU, Air Force pool.