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State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

Apr
29
2012
By
Category: Editorial, Featured News, WAC Expansion & Realignment

wac life support ed State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0The Autumn of 2010 was a dark period for the WAC. They attempted a power play to take out the Mountain West and work their way up the FBS ladder. But instead,  they saw their own members break off (Fresno St., Nevada and Hawaii), leaving the WAC left to regroup.

In November of 2010, we covered the State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support. After receiving some donations from the FCS subdivision, the WAC took some time to rest and see if the new additions would take. To help ease the pain, the WAC even adding some support outside of football, by adding Texas-Arlington to help it’s eastern football wing of UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech…and even added Denver and Seattle to give it’s northern members, Idaho and Utah St. a hand.

But unfortunately for the WAC, it’s time as a football conference has come to an end.

First to leave, or at least to become just about official, is UTSA. The school plans on leaving the WAC to join the newest version of Conference USA. It’s quite a feat for UTSA, a new football program that was able to go from non-existent to CUSA in just a couple years thanks to the departure of 4 CUSA schools.

Next up for the WAC exodus are the team of Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. has for some time been a logical MWC addition, as a way to attempt to replace the lost market of Utah with the departures of BYU and Utah. Salt Lake City had been the epicenter of the MWC, and Utah St. has a chance to help the conference reclaim some of that lost market. San Jose St. brings very little on field success. But it’s presence in the Bay Area make it an appealing option for the MWC as they seek a better television deal.

Next up for the farewell tour of the WAC will likely be Louisiana Tech. The school is expected to be the selection for the #12 spot in CUSA, with UTSA, North Texas, and Florida International joining as well. There is still a chance that Charlotte or even Appalachian St. could sneak past Louisiana Tech. But even if that happens, Louisiana Tech is likely gone anyways. With the WAC now over for football, LA Tech will at worst leave the WAC for the Sun Belt in the event that they are passed over by CUSA at the last minute.

The next likely WAC member to waive goodbye? None other than the Fighting Armadillos, I mean Bobcats, from Texas St. While the San Marcos school has less clout than North Texas in the conference realignment pecking order, and doesn’t offer the market penetration that UTSA does, Texas St. does have something to offer: a school in Texas. It might not seem like much, but Texas St. appears to be in a position where they could benefit from all the Big East and now CUSA movement. With the Sun Belt expected to lose North Texas and Florida International, even with incoming Georgia St., the Sun Belt will be looking for members. With LA Tech likely in CUSA, it means the Sun Belt candidates will be Charlotte and Texas State. Others such as Appalachian St., Georgia Southern and ODU have yet to fully commit to upgrading to FBS football. Once the Sun Belt loses 2 schools, they will be back at 9 members with Georgia State. Charlotte might be the pick here. But the conference might also opt for another FCS upgrade along with Texas St. for a 12 school football conference. Even another lonely WAC member could slip in along with Charlotte and Texas St.

And that lonely WAC member? That would be New Mexico State.

The chances that New Mexico St. join the Sun Belt are slim to none, but a bit closer to “slim”. Under a few scenarios, the Sun Belt might see a benefit in adding NMSU as it’s 12th football member. This would likely only happen if LA Tech does join CUSA, as well as North Texas and FIU. The Sun Belt, at 9 football members, could always add Texas St. and NMSU along with Charlotte for a 12 school football conference.

And then there is Idaho.

The poor Vandals have to sit back and watch all the other conferences come in and loot their conference, only to be left with no other football schools. Pride will likely keep Idaho in FBS football for many years, despite having no conference home. Idaho doesn’t have the clout of a BYU, Notre Dame or Army in being an independent, but they will have no choice. The only shot, and it’s a long one, would be if Idaho were to seek football only membership in the Sun Belt. If things worked out for them, perhaps NMSU is also left outside, and the tandem could attempt the get the Sun Belt to accept them as low revenue gaining football-only members in a 14 school conference. Idaho could also try to get the MAC to offer a similar spot, not that much different than when UCF was a MAC football member. But Florida certainly offers better incentives to the MAC than Idaho.

 

As for a life preserver, similar to what kept the WAC alive once before? It just doesn’t exist this time around. Schools like Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Sacramento St., Lamar and SHSU passed on upgrading last time when the WAC still had a core group with Utah St., San Jose St., LA Tech and others. With them all gone and only 2-3 schools remaining, there is no chance that a group of regional FCS schools would upgrade.

 

Breakdown of a Broken Down WAC – Options for it’s Members:

 

utsa State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

 

Status: SAFE
UTSA will be leaving the WAC for CUSA

 

 

Utah State University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

Status: SAFE
Utah St. will be leaving the WAC for the Mountain West

 

 

 

San Jose State University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0Status: SAFE
San Jose St. will be leaving the WAC for the Mountain West

 

 

 

Louisana Tech University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0Status: SAFE
Louisiana Tech Options: will either be moving to CUSA as member #12 (with UTSA, North Texas and FIU) or joining the Sun Belt if LA Tech is passed over by CUSA for Charlotte or Appalachian St.

 

Texas State University San Marcos State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

 

Status: CHANCE OF BEING LEFT BEHIND
Texas St. could be left out of the FBS football conference mix. Their primary hope is that the Sun Belt loses 2-3 schools with their membership dropping to 8-9. Either Charlotte or LA Tech would be the top replacement, whichever one is not invited to CUSA. Texas St. expects that it will slip into the next spot for school #11 under the scenario in which the Sun Belt loses North Texas and FIU to CUSA, adds Georgia St. for #9, adds Charlotte or LA Tech for #10, and Texas St. for #11. If the Sun Belt were lose lose out on Charlotte, it might be a blessing in disguise for other schools, as the conference might than take Appalachian St. (similar region as Charlotte) and Texas St. for #12.
Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while returning to the Southland for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Southland reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and re-join the Southland Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

 

New Mexico State University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

 

Status: GOOD CHANCE OF BEING LEFT BEHIND
New Mexico St. is in a worse situation that Texas St. Their only hope is that the Sun Belt opts to expand to 12 schools, adding Charlotte or LA Tech along with Texas St. to get to 11 following the departures of North Texas and FIU. NMSU would have to beat out FCS schools like Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern for that final spot.

Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Southland for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Southland reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and join Southland Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

 

University of Idaho State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0


Status: POOR

Idaho is in the worst possible spot. They regionally are not an ideal fit for all-sports membership in the Sun Belt, the only conference that might have space for them (since the MWC does not have any desire for them at this time). Idaho’s only shot of not being am FBS football independent will be if they are able to join the Sun Belt in some capacity.

Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Big Sky for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Big Sky reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and join Big Sky Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

 

WAC Survival Once Football is Gone:

Lost in the realignment news is that beyond being just about football, there are also non-football members with a stake in the action. The hope here is that the WAC can keep enough members such as Idaho and NMSU, and perhaps Texas St., and that they can pick up a few other members from conferences like the Summit League or Southland.

* Utah Valley will be expected to join the WAC.

* CSU-Bakersfield is another option that the WAC to consider.

* UTPA will be expected to join if the WAC can keep any Texas members such as Texas St. and UT-Arlington and the Southland does not offer them membership

* They will also have to look at potential Division 2 upgrades in the region.

* If times are desperate, New Orleans is another option, as the school will rejoin Division 1 and is without a home

 

Looking at the math, the WAC would appear to be safe as a conference without football. Likely membership:

CSU-Bakersfield
Seattle
Idaho
Denver
Utah Valley
NMSU
Texas-Arlington
UTPA
New Orleans

 

WAC Non-Football members:

Boise State University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0

 

The newest WAC member, as a result of Boise St. moving it’s football program to the Big East. Should the WAC fold, Boise St. will have a few options.

Options if the WAC folds:
- seek membership in the Big Sky for non-football sports
- join the Summit League for non-football sports
- Try again to get the Big West to accept them for non-football sports
Seattle University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0 Seattle has few options. They only joined the WAC because the WCC and Big West had no interest. Seattle would have one option: hope the WCC changes their stance and brings them in with a 12th school after Pacific joins for 12 member.

 

Denver University State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0 Denver has a few options as well. They can always join the Summit League. The could also ask the Big West to change their football requirement rules ans apply. And Denver always has the hope that thanks to the WCC additions of BYU and Pacific, that the WCC would invite them as a travel partner for the Utah based school, becoming member #12 with Seattle.

 

University of Texas Arlington State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support 2.0 Texas-Arlington will always likely have a home back in the Southland if they want it. The fact that the Southland is flirting with schools like UTPA says much about their conference stability. Even more telling is that UTPA has yet to be invited, likely a case of the Southland holding out to see how the WAC membership shakes out. If the WAC folds, UTA will have a home again. If the Southland felt too jilted, UTA could always join the Summit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Over the next few weeks, the WAC will undergo some more changes. But what you see above should cover just about every scenario…even some real longshots.

To keep up with all the scenarios and news, be sure to follow the Conference Realignment Grid .

 

 

 

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  • Willey

    Utah Valley is the largest institution in Utah, larger the than the University of Utah or BYU, they are simply younger. The Athletic program is a sleeping giant that is just starting to catch fire. Their baseball team beat BYU, UTAH, ASU and Arizona this year, Arizona went on to win it all. The basketball team has improved every year and had it first post season invite last year. The WAC is no longer going to be a football conference they should be all over the Wolverines, Jeff Herd needs to do what it takes to add UVU.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1683393806 David Stroud

    There is now talks that several FCS schools are working together to join the WAC. Looks like many of the strong football schools that wanted to move up. I know or heard of these schools talking together and working a plan for a WAC East.
    Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, Delaware, Jacksonville State and Liberty

    Now, that would bring the WAC up to 7. What are the other schools that have not been mentioned that have a football tradition or strong programs or been mentioned about looking to move up? 

    Youngstown State
    Stony Brook
    Fordham (could play in the same stadium that they played the Pinstripe Bowl for home games against big name schools)
    Delaware State?
    Furman?
    Alabama State? (rumor that they have been talking to the Sun Belt)
    Florida A&M?
    North Alabama?
    West Florida?
    Lamar
    Sam Houston State
    Stephen F. Austin
    Centrral Arkansas?
    Missouri State
    North Dakota State
    Montana
    Montana State
    Eastern Washington
    Utah Valley
    Grand Canyon U.
    Cal. State Bakersfield
    Texas Pan America
    Cal. Poly
    Cal.-Davis
    Sacramento State
    Portland State

    Now, if the FCS schools of Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Delaware, James Madison, Liberty and Jacksonville State could do something that Karl Benson could not do? They could get the Big Sky schools to make the jump.

    East
    Delaware
    James Madison
    Georgia Southern
    James Madison
    Liberty
    Appalachian State
    West Florida (basketball and other sports to offset the western schools without football)*
    VCU/Dayton?
    Youngstown State
    Fordham/Stony Brook?

    West
    Idaho
    New Mexico State
    Lamar
    Sam Houston State 
    Montana
    Montana State
    North Dakota State
    Eastern Washington
    Seattle* 
    Denver*

    If you would look at all the FCS schools that I listed? Many of them have won championships or made the playoffs. WAC would become a very strong football conference of schools who have upset some aq schools in the past (James Madison, Appalachian State, Jacksonville State, Cal.-Davis and North Dakota State), schools that beaten FBS schools (Delaware and Liberty) and schools that almost upset FBS schools (Eastern Washington, Sam Houston State and Stony Brook).

    There are many options with the new stuff coming out that sounds like might become true. WAC could become the new BEAST.

  • Ryanworbs

    Well as of May 3rd the WAC is down to:
    Seattle–waiting for WCC
    Denver–has some options other than WAC
    Idaho–desperately needs to go to Big Sky
    Boise–
    New Mexico St–can they sneak into S’land or do they have to consider FCS?
    UT Arlington–SBC bound?, S’land has a slot open for them

    The candidates out there are:
    Utah Valley
    Cal St Bakersfield–would rather be Big West
    UT Pan Am– yuck
    New Orleans–could get a slot in S’land

    If this conference drops to 4 members its dead in the water

  • foodsherpas

    Not a chance. To upgrade form FCS to FBS, it costs a lot of money. And the reason to upgrade and spend that money is as an investment to make more money. But this group, the Big Sky plus NMSU and Idaho, is not an FBS caliber conference. It would mean each school needs to go from 63 to 85 scholarships…which means each school would need to add 22 more womens scholarships to comply with Title IX. So just to upgrade, it means 44 more scholarships. So we’re talking costs in the millions for a school to upgrade. If you are able to slip into a good conference, it’s worth it. Even ODU to CUSA is great because they will have nearby ECU, Charlotte and Marshall plus the proposed MWC alliance for TV for a likely 24 school conference with some strong markets. The Big Sky won’t have that. They will have a TV contract equal to the one they have now…which is not much. So as a business, why bother upgrading  if it just means losing money?

    The other factor is that there are strict rules: FCS conferences cannot upgrade to FBS, only schools can, and need an invite from an existing FBS conference. Rule was proposed by non-FBS conferences to help stop their members from leaving without even having a home (UTSA an example).

    That said, you are right that the WAC could just invite Big Sky schools to replenish.

    Problem is, they already tried that last year and everyone said no…and that was when the WAC had 7 members. With only 2 members and less stability, Big Sky schools aren’t going to join since only some of the schools (Montana, Sac St., Portland St come to mind) could pull off an upgrade with some level of optimism.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1683393806 David Stroud

    How about a merger with an existing FBS conference? Big Sky and WAC. It would give all schools equal saying on what to do.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1683393806 David Stroud

    How about an agreement on some type of merger with the WAC and Big Sky for football purposes? I read somewhere that there are some talks going on. It would be with a new name, but Big Sky will still have their own schools in the other sports under the Big Sky banner, and WAC schools for other sports.

    It might look like this with what you posted minus Texas State.
    Big Sky/WAC
    Idaho
    New Mexico State
    Texas-Arlington? Still questions if they are adding football.
    Eastern Washington
    Weber State
    Southern Utah
    Portland State
    sacramento State
    Cal-Poly
    Cal-Davis
    NorthernArizona
    Monatana
    Montana State
    Northern Colorado
    Lamar
    Sam Houston State
    Stephen F. Austin
    Central Arkansas
    Maybe add the other three Dakota schools to fill the spots.
    New Orleans
    Idaho State

    Now the new WAC for other sports.
    Boise State
    Denver
    Idaho
    New Mexico State
    UTA
    Seattle U.
    Utah Valley
    Western Washington (from D-2)
    Grand Canyon U. (D-2)
    Texas-Pan America
    Cal. State-Bakersfield
    New Mexico Highlands(D2)
    Adams State(D-2)
    Central Washington(D2)
    West Texas A&M (D-2)

    Now, if some Big Sky schools that could not upgrade, the football side could be for football only.
    Northern Colorado
    North Dakota
    Northern Arizona
    Central Washington (football only)
    Idaho State
    Southern Utah(football only)
    New Mexico Highlands (football only)
    Adams State (football only)
    Grand Canyon(football only if they add the sport)
    Utah Valley (football only if they add)
    West Texas A&M (football only)

    Once the schools that wanted to start football and get better in the Big Sky down the road? The two conferences can split up again, and then you will have WAC football and Big Sky football as an FBS conferences. That would get some D-2 up there as well to bring more schools in areas that are not covered. It is too bad they can not get Simon Fraser or British Columbia U. in there. That would bring in more viewers from Vancouver, BC in Canada.

    The other plan that may never work is to accept all FCS schools that want to upgrade.
    New Orleans
    Sam Houston State
    Lamar
    Stephen F. Austin
    Appalachian State
    Georgia Southern
    Jacksonville State
    Delaware
    James Madison
    Liberty
    Stony Brook
    Fordham

    Add schools that are looking for homes for all sports.
    North Alabama
    West Florida
    Utah Valley
    Grand Canyon U.
    Cal-State-Bakersfield

    There are a lot of options to choose from, and many teams would jump at the chance to have a home including ones from D-2. I would not be choosy on which teams. WAC could become the home for upgrading schools to join until they find a home that suits them better.

  • Kyle

    If I were the MAC, I’d just invite Delaware. Sun Belt could take App State, Liberty, JMU and Georgia Southern to get to 14. WAC could become: Montana, Montana State, Idaho, New mexico state, SHSU, SFAU, Lamar, Houston Baptist and ND State as a football conference. Eventually Montana and State might wind up in MWC. 

  • Mizzou

    There is talk San Diego State and Boise State may go back to the Mountain West now for football.  I think there is a chance the “new big east” fails and this whole thing blows up.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Bradley-R-Koenig/1379560922 Bradley R. Koenig

    I think that the nickname issue is a big sticking point. Geographically and rivalry wise, UND should be with NDSU- but I don’t think that they ever got the invitation. 

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    Good question, with an easy answer: they can’t. The rules were set in stone, agreed to (actually proposed by) the FCS conferences. In their eyes, they were making it harder for schools to leave their conferences by upgrading to FBS independent status. So the rule was passed that the only way a school can upgrade is if it gets an invite from an EXISTING FBS conference, limited to the current conferences. 

    It’s a bit moot since there are no conferences with the necessary membership to upgrade. Many CAA fans feel they should, but lets be real: after Delaware and JMU…and maybe (yes, they are still a big maybe as a newcomer) ODU have even some of what is needed to upgrade to FBS. Towson? W&M? Not a chance. Besides, the CAA is still short 1 school to even qualify as a FCS conference due to the losses of NU, Hofstra and Georgia St….they need 6 all-sports members. If Stony Brook going to make this group FBS ready? No…and Towson and W&M are not FBS caliber programs.

  • Kro

    Out of curiosity, what are the stipulations for if a conference wants to move itself and all its constituent schools from FCS to FBS? I was just thinking that in a very hypothetical situation, if the Southland and/or Big Sky wanted to move up, that could be an option for Idaho/NMSU/Texas State. Probably a moot point, though.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    UND isn’t in the Summit because the MVFC doesn’t have room for them. Perhaps had UNO not dropped football, UND could have made it in. But since the MVFC doesn’t want 11 members, they stopped with USD as #10. If a MVFC school left, then sure, UND could join. But who knows if they even want to…if you buy their spin, they always wanted to be in the Big Sky, not the Summit/MVFC with the other 3 Dakota schools.

  • Brad Koenig

    The Dakota schools won’t leave the Summit. For the life of me I don’t know why UND is in the Big Sky instead of reuniting with NDSU, USD and SDSU. Those schools are on the Minnesota border- they won’t give up the Summit to travel much further.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    It’s a great plan if it worked. But SDSU is in the Big West. And if the WAC folded, I’m sure that Boise St. could convince the Big Sky to take them for non-football sports to offset the odd number of all-sports members they have thanks to North Dakota. And then there is the Summit. They need schools for stability…not that they have a big risk of many schools leaving. The Summit could take Boise St. and Denver tomorrow. Point is, even if the WAC folds, Boise St. will have a home for it’s other sports. So the MWC can’t assume they’d ever come back.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    It’s a great plan if it worked. But SDSU is in the Big West. And if the WAC folded, I’m sure that Boise St. could convince the Big Sky to take them for non-football sports to offset the odd number of all-sports members they have thanks to North Dakota. And then there is the Summit. They need schools for stability…not that they have a big risk of many schools leaving. The Summit could take Boise St. and Denver tomorrow. Point is, even if the WAC folds, Boise St. will have a home for it’s other sports. So the MWC can’t assume they’d ever come back.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    They could…if you really think that JMU, Delaware, ODU…throw in App St. and GA Southern would even have interest. If they were all set on FBS, would it make more sense to try to get the MAC to allow them to join? Yet they haven’t approached the MAC yet. At this point, little will help the WAC. When you need to rely on 5 or more FCS schools upgrading from the east coast to join the Western Athletic Conference just to remain an FBS conference, you are in trouble.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    They could…if you really think that JMU, Delaware, ODU…throw in App St. and GA Southern would even have interest. If they were all set on FBS, would it make more sense to try to get the MAC to allow them to join? Yet they haven’t approached the MAC yet. At this point, little will help the WAC. When you need to rely on 5 or more FCS schools upgrading from the east coast to join the Western Athletic Conference just to remain an FBS conference, you are in trouble.

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    They could, if those schools felt the instability of the WAC would be better than the Summit. But why would the Dakota schools want to be in a conference that would increase their travel budget hundreds of times over? To play basketball against Boise St., Seattle, Denver, UT Arlington, New Mexico St. and Idaho? It’s not a big carrot now is it?

  • http://collegesportsinfo.com CollegeSportsInfo.com

    Texas St. has done nothing to prove itself in FBS…and neither has Charlotte. What Charlotte has proven itself at though, is being a valued member of CUSA…since they only left because the conference required FBS football and Charlotte didn’t have it. CUSA expansion now is about improving their TV contract and adding Charlotte,a  market they previously had and did well in, would be a new addition. Texas St. offers no TV market, none at all. Especially when you already have Rice (Houston access), North Texas (Dallas access) and UTSA (San Antonio access). 

  • Dinocrescioni

    The WAC could go after the 4 Dakota schools, Nebraska – Omaha, and also add Utah Valley. The conference could consist of current members Idaho (FBS INDY), New Mexico St. (FBS Indy or Football only Sunbelt), Boise St., Seattle, and Denver. The WAC convinces Missouri Valley (the current football home for the other Dakota schools) to take North Dakota football. 

  • gocats

    I don’t see how Charlotte would be considered a candidate above Texas State. They won’t even have football until 2013. I think the Sun Belt would rather take a somewhat established program with a solid recruiting base over a startup program when it comes down to brass tacks. 

  • Southernliberty

    Why couldn’t the WAC invite teams in the CAA, among others to save the football conference for a few years while the WAC gets back on its feet. Then once that happens, the CAA can become the FBS conference that it wants by inviting back its FBS members.

  • Ryanworbs

    Ultimately I think the MWC/C-USA’s plan is to kill the WAC and force Boise and San Diego St into their mega conference as the 23rd and 24th members.  The plan is contingent upon the SBC taking enough WAC schools to cripple the league: LA Tech (if available), Texas St, and New Mexico St would be a must.  The SBC might even have an interest in UT-A too to balance divisions but I think they land Charlotte for fb only and pass on UT-A.  I think going back to S’land is probable for UT-A simply for travel reasons.  The MWC also needs to think hard about taking Denver to further expedite the WAC’s death.  If the WAC drops to just Idaho, Seattle, and Boise its dead.

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