We’re at a time when nearly all ACC schools are considered potential options for other conferences. The Big Ten could look further south by adding a pair from the pool of Virginia, Duke, North Carolina and Georgia Tech, or to the north with Syracuse or Boston College. The SEC could always revisit expansion into new areas with schools such as Virginia Tech and NC State. The Big 12 could push further east with schools such as Florida St., Georgia Tech, Clemson and Virginia Tech.

Louisville is rumored to be the top replacement option in the ACC should Maryland leave, but many would look at Uconn as a better option. In Uconn, the ACC would match the Big Ten additions of Rutgers in the northeast by locking up Boston College, UConn, Syracuse and Pittsburgh for the ACC television contract. Louisville is still appealing, but would have less market penetration into the New York City DMA than UConn would. For the Big East, a departure by Maryland would certainly mean a loss for the Big East. With a Rutgers departure along with Uconn or Louisville, the Big East would be in serious trouble with their new television contract. Potential candidates would likely come from the Mountain West, with the Big East trying to create a western division with Boise St., San Diego St., SMU and Houston. Targets such as Fresno St., UNLV, and New Mexico (Army, Air Force and BYU have rejected previous Big East overtures) would need to find non-football conference homes from a smaller pool of options such as the Big West. But with Boise St., Hawaii and San Diego St. in the Big West, the conference would likely show flexibility in adding 2 of those schools if need be. For the ACC, a loss of Maryland might make Florida St. to reconsider any interest from the Big 12. Whether they joined with Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson or another school, the Big 12 would need to show they could generate an increased television contract to pay off the $50 million exit fee. Such a situation, where the Big Ten expanded to 14 and if the Big 12 expanded to 12 with 1-2 ACC schools, still means the ACC would be in a comfortable spot as the #5 overall conference. But the loss of 3 members, only to be replaced by 3 Big East schools, would be a blow to the ACC. If Maryland were to leave for the Big Ten, the ACC just hopes that the bleeding stops there.      

The one caveat: they will not be joining for football.

With the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East, following last decades’ expansion with Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech, Notre Dame will join with 5 former Big East members.

While Notre Dame football will not be joining the ACC, the move of it’s other sports does open the door for future membership should the changes in the college football postseason hinder Notre

Dame as an independent. That said, the Big East for years thought Notre Dame would eventually join, only to be rebuffed over the past 2 decades they were a member. But Notre Dame is clearly aligning itself with a conference with some of the top academic institutions such as Duke, UNC and Wake Forest. If the school ever does opt to join for football, they will have the benefit of participating against schools in a talent rich recruiting region.

The loss of Notre Dame brings the Big East non-football membership to 7. While non-football schools like Xavier, St. Louis, Richmond, Butler and others might be considered as replacements for Notre Dame in the Big East, it would not be shocking to see the conference wait at 17 members until they see how things play out with their new football side of the conference.

For Uconn and Rutgers, two schools hoping to join the ACC, the addition of Notre Dame for non-football sports will darken their hopes even more. It would seem unlikely that the ACC would expand to 15 football schools, 16 for non-football sports with Notre Dame in the fold.

The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

So here’s where we stand:

Big 12 Stability:

* Yes, the Big 12 seems to be doing what they did just last year…pledge unity with each other, with Texas and Oklahoma being the primary torch carriers for the conference. This year, the recommended changes weren’t to help the top ranking members like last years decisions were. This time around, unity was defined as spreading the wealth. So what is on the table is equal revenue sharing for Tier 1 and Tier 2 television rights. But the kicker…

* The 6 year conference grants rights: on the table is where all Big 12 members would forfeit their TV rights to the Big 12 for a 6 year period…and the current TV deal runs for 5 years. So if a school left the Big 12, they would not even have their own TV rights for that year. The result would be a revenue loss greater than a simple “exit fee” would be. But…

* Missouri seems to be holding things up. There are reports from the SEC that they are not expecting to expand beyond 14. But it seems to be a semantics game at this point. We know the SEC has some level of interest in Missouri. We know this because all the Big 12 members, including their acting commissioner, have made reference to Missouri and the school waiting to decide if they will remain in the Big 12. As we know they are not considering an offer from another conference, it would seem that Missouri is still considering the SEC.

* The SEC semantics game is likely legal posturing. They have made it clear that a school must reach out the the SEC and apply to the SEC in order to ever be considered. Legally, the SEC is positioning themselves so that IF they added Missouri, it would be Missouri reaching out to them.

* Missouri will have a meeting on Tuesday to discuss their conference situation. If they opt to pursue the SEC, they would follow the same path as Texas A&M in negotiations. If they opt to remain in the Big 12, it is a 6 year commitment. Missouri would need to join the other Big 12 members and everyone sign the 6 year grants waiver. Result would mean Missouri would be off the table for the SEC or any other conference (Big Ten) for 6 years.

* If Missouri does have the SEC as an option, it would be tough to pass on after the past 2 years in the Big 12. Especially since passing means that if the SEC finds 13 schools to be too difficult and needs a 14th, they would be left out of that mix in favor of a school like WVU or if the SEC could obtain an ACC school.

* The Big 12 has replaced expansion committee chair, Missouri chancellor Deaton, with Kansas St. president Kirk Shultz. The assumption is the potential conflict of interest if Missouri is considering the SEC. Other sources claim Shultz has been the chair all along.

* Big 12 Commissioner Chuck Neinas says he expects Missouri to remain in the Big 12.

Big 12 Expansion:

* The Big 12 expansion plans have been all over the map. Journalists who regularly have excellent sources and information have conflicting reports on a day to day basis.

* At first, it appeared that the Big 12 would be “aggressive” and likely expand to 12.

* Then, due to feedback from the TV partners, it appeared 10 would be the number with BYU or TCU topping the list. The rationale was that the networks would value either school as much as Texas A&M, so the annual revenue would remain the same.

* It appeared that the lesser Big 12 programs favored expansion to 12 because it would promote security. That way, if 4 or 5 schools left in the future, the Big 12 would have 7-8 members and a controlling stake in their future. At even 7 schools, the Big 12 would be in a position to cherry pick schools from lower conferences. This time around, it appeared only 4-5 schools would have remained, removing much of the leverage and forcing the Big 12 “left overs” to do what other conferences, like the Big East, wanted.

* Texas was less interested in expanding beyond 10 due to potential revenue split by 12 schools and the chance it would lower the annual payouts per school…and loss of control by having 12 schools instead of just 9 others.

* Expansion in Texas was not desired by Texas. Other schools outside Texas like Kansas opposed expanding in Texas as well.

* As of today, it appears that the Big 12 is still undecided on 10 or 12 members.

* BYU still appears to top the list. The school would need to work their own ESPN/BYUtv situations into the Big 12 TV partnerships. They would also need to move their sports from the WCC to the Big 12.

* Reports yesterday claim that the Big 12, due to recommendations from their commissioner, are less hesitant on adding a Texas school (TCU). It is unknown if this decrease in reluctance is for TCU as the #10 member and sole expansion school…or if it is in the event that the Big 12 opted to expand eastward to get to 12 with TCU, Louisville, and WVU.

* If the Big 12 expands to 12, there seem to be a few paths they will consider:
A) Adding BYU, Louisville and WVU
B) Adding BYU, Louisville and TCU
C) Adding BYU, Boise St. and Louisville
D) If BYU passes, just Louisville
E) If BYU passes, just TCU
F) If BYU passes, add Louisville, TCU and WVU
G) If BYU passes, add Louisville, WVU and Rutgers
H) other 3 school scenarios less likely such as Boise St., Louisville and WVU

Big East & ACC Expansion:

* School presidents will meet in Washington D.C. this Sunday to discuss all options.

* Uconn has been posturing for an ACC invite. The ACC seems willing to add UConn but is waiting on Notre Dame at this point.

* Notre Dame is waiting to see what happens to the Big East before deciding on their future (ACC of Big Ten). More on that in a second.

* ACC looks like they might likely expand to 16 in the next year or two, perhaps sooner. If Notre Dame applies (due to Big East issues), Uconn will be invited for #16. If Notre Dame passes, the ACC might very well still add UConn and add Rutgers for #16.

* The  ACC took more control over the northeast markets with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Syracuse will likely play an ACC game in NY (Yankee Stadium, Meadowlands in NJ) each year too.

* ACC now has Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh in the region. The Big Ten still has the blue chip in Penn St. And the Big 12  is considering their own push with WVU and Louisville. This leaves the Big East with the lesser programs in the region (Uconn, Rutgers, WVU) for their share. So it is easy to see how the ACC expanding to 16 with Notre Dame and Uconn (or even Uconn and Rutgers) would be a final blow to the Big East. The ACC would then have the top 5 programs in the region after Penn St. and the TV revenue that the Big East expected to be for their conference would likely be shifted by ESPN to the ACC.

* WVU is still and will always be considered a candidate for the SEC #14 spot until the SEC fills that spot…even if the conference says 13 is fine. Because the media and fans will always focus on the symmetry of 14 and never embrace the idea of 13.

* The Big East is primarily looking at football-only members. Topping the list are Navy and Air Force.

* Air Force is a less likely option, contrary to reports, because by NCAA rules, Air Force could not remain in the geographically sound MWC for it’s other sports. MWC commissioner Thompson has clearly stated that if Air Force leaves for football, they leave for everything. Air Force would be forced to seek membership for non-football sports in conferences like the WCC, Big Sky or Summit. The WCC is less likely an option due to the conferences primary religious make-up. Both the Big Sky and Summit would be a drastic drop in quality.

* ECU and Temple are also attractive Big East options since both schools would accept football-only membership.

* UCF was considered a top option for #11 or #12 spots prior to Syracuse and Pitt leaving, as the football schools then held the power. The basketball schools were more willing to listen to adding a school like UCF then, as the Big East was stable. The basketball schools have less interest now in adding all-sports members when they are just a few schools lost away from dropping football sponsorship: translation, we don’t want to be stuck with all-sports schools we don’t want if you (football schools like UConn) leave.

* UCF is reportedly being blocked by USF anyways. So much for everyone supporting the good of the league.

* Houston is no longer an option, despite being one just a month ago for #11 or #12. See UCF two mentions above for the reason.

* Louisville coach Rick Pitino wants UL to remain in the Big East. He even promoted Memphis as an option for all-sports if they committed to football. He’s since gone dark on Memphis, instead feeling the Big East should add Navy, Army and Air Force to get to 10 members, then bring in Temple for all-sports for #11 and have Villanova upgrade to FBS for #12. Total would be 12 football/16 all-sports. Problem is that Army is not interest, Villanova does not want Temple, and Air Force and Navy would need stability (and Air Force a home for other sports).

Big East House of Cards:

* The Big East is in trouble. It could take just a single school leaving for everything to fall apart. For instance…

* If the Big 12 expanded with even a single Big East school (Louisville), then the Big East is down to 6 members.

* TCU will indeed consider remaining in the Mountain West if the Big East membership numbers drop further. Especially as the MWC is poised to apply for a BCS AQ with it’s current membership. TCU would secure a BCS AQ  bid for the MWC regardless of the BCS vote on the current MWC membership.

* If the Big East were down to 5 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati and USF…they are in trouble. The basketball schools do not what any all-sports members from the available pool (UCF, Houston, Memphis, ECU, etc). So to get back to even 9 schools without any all-sports schools, it would mean having to add football-only members Navy, Air Force, Army, ECU or Temple. Not all would be willing to join. And these schools do not scream “BCS AUTOBID”. This would be a conference ranked lower than the MWC and on par with CUSA. So there is a real threat of losing the BCS AQ.

* On top of that, you have other conferences still making moves:
A) ACC: if they add two schools, even Notre Dame and Uconn, then TCU stays in the MWC. Big East down to 5
B) ACC: still an option that UConn and Rutgers join, TCU stays in MWC. Big East down to 4.
C) Big 12: you have not just Louisville, but also WVU on the radar. If both left regardless of the ACC, TCU leaves and you’re down to 4 schools.
D) Big 12: a longshot, but 3 Big East schools could be in the mix, TCU leaves too and Big East is down to 3 schools.

* So there stands a chance that if a single school leaves the Big East, the house crumbles. So what happens?

* Big East could be forced to drop football sponsorship. The result would likely be CUSA adding the 4 remaining Big East schools for football only (say UConn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, USF). Those 4 schools would remain in the Big East for other sports.

* Can’t rule out a scenario in which Cincinnati and UCF joined CUSA for all-sports with Uconn and Rutgers for football-only (remaining in the northeast based Big East).

* The simple point:  Big East could be in serious trouble if the Big 12 adds even a single Big East school.

Timeline for Tuesday, 9/20/11 through Wednesday, 9/21/11

11AM: Multiple Big East sources said they have been told by WVU officials that WVU rejected by ACC & SEC. This news led most to believe that Missouri would be the front-runner for the SEC #14 spot.

11AM: A reminder of some Monday news that didn’t get as much press…that JMU AD Jeff Bourne said he expects JMU to upgrade to FBS within 1-2 years.

1PM: A report by @chuckolivernews seemed to imply that the SEC had interest in Louisville for the SEC #14 spot.

2pm: A report out of Kansas City claimed that the SEC had decided on Missouri for #14 and had an offer for them. This would completely contradict the SEC process, where the conference requires a school to apply to the conference before they would extend an offer.

2:30pm: Some rumors surfaces that if Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. left the Big 12, that the proposed Big East merger would happen but that BYU, Boise St., Air Force and Houston would be included as well.

3pm: T. Boone Pickens explains that the Big 12 could be saved. This was the first sign that the Pac-16 was losing steam, something we’d later see as the Pac-12 opted not to expand.

3:30pm: Uconn continues to make it’s point in wanting to join the ACC.

4pm: Texas A&M makes it clear (likely in response to Pickens comments) that TAMU is joining the SEC, regardless of what happens in the Big 12.

4:30pm: As expected, the SEC disputes claims that they invited Missouri.

5pm: Big East planned meeting detailed for the evening. Uconn was not expected to attend and Villanova asked if they could attend. Uconn president would pass on meeting, but school would have representative.

6pm: Oklahoma remaining in the Big 12 gains more traction.  Based on comments out of Oklahoma, it was clear that Oklahoma at least had a strong sense that the Pac-12 would not be willing to expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

6pm: Penn St. president goes on the record saying Big Ten, nor Big Ten schools are planning anything in regards to expansion.

6pm: Missouri announces public meeting for Thursday in Columbia, presumably to discuss the SEC, Big 12, etc.

6:10pm: As part of Oklahoma’s demands for remaining in the Big 12, they demand that commissioner Dan Beebe be fired.

7pm: Ground shaking, I know…LA Tech communicates with CUSA and Sun Belt

7pm: News of previous Big East plans comes out, includes Navy as football-only and Air Force as well joining.

8pm: It took a while, but WVU officials call the ACC and SEC rejections an “outright lie”.

8pm: Big East and Big 12 cancel any meeting between both parties under fear of legal issues. This was first step in dissolving of the entire merger concept.

8pm: Hold your hats folks, ECU formally applied to the Big East. The twitter universe is still laughing at this one with various hashtags.

8pm: The best in all covering things Pac-12, @jonwilner, reports that the the Pac-12 would have the votes for Pac-16 expansion. And he fully explains how: if Scott were to bring a formal vote on member schools, it would be only if all schools had agree to all Pac-12 demands. This was code that if Texas did not get on board with the Pac-12 TV network, there would be no vote.

8pm: Reports that the SEC had a plan that if Missouri joined with Texas A&M, that Auburn would move to the east division.

8pm: One of the best in realignment news, Pete Thamel, says Missouri is likely the only SEC #14 candidate and that the school would be in a tough spot…keep the Big 12 together after it almost fell apart 2 years in a row or preserve the schools future with a move to the SEC.

8pm: Pete Thamel also reports that no SEC divisional plans had been set, contrary to earlier reports.

8pm: with the Big East meetings occurring at this time, many in the Twitter universe recall how earlier in the day, Penn St. coach Joe Paterno referenced Rutgers as a Big Ten candidate if the conference ever did opt to expand.

9pm: More schools on the outside get some press. Wyoming tells the world what we already knew, that they are not in the position where other conferences are calling them about membership.

9pm: Mountain West confirms that they have had early discussions with Iowa St. The assumption is that the MWC was making a play for Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St. if the Big 12 imploded. TCU would likely have been brought back as well for a 14 school conference (with Baylor being left out).

9pm: Memories of what could have been…the Paterno proposed eastern football conference that would have have been comprised of the original Big East football members, likely ACC schools like GA Tech and Florida St., as well as possibly Notre Dame.

10pm: As mentioned above, the Pac-12 opted to remain at 12 members. The rationale is quite simple: the Pac-12 was open to adding Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech as the move would bring in 2 programs that would improve the football profile of the conference and improve the per-school revenue. But from the beginning, any expansion would need to involve fully equal revenue sharing. Texas was unwilling to modify it’s LHN network, so the Pac-12 passed.

10pm: With the Pac-12 off the table, Oklahoma will likely reach out to the SEC unless all it’s demands are met in the Big 12. This includes nearly full revenue sharing of the LHN and the removal of Dan Beebe. If the SEC were to include Oklahoma as #14, the state of Oklahoma might require Oklahoma St. as well. So if the SEC wanted OU, it might mean having to expand to 16. Missouri could always still be #16, but again, only if the Big 12 still implodes with an Oklahoma departure…which seems unlikely without the Pac-12 leverage.

Since Midnight: Big East schools have vowed to remain together following their meeting. ESPN reports that the conference will look at UCF, Navy, Air Force, and East Carolina. I’m not sure why Houston is not on ESPN’s list when Houston was high on the Big East radar for the #10 spot just weeks ago. Note that the same ESPN writer here claims ECU has the Raleigh market, despite ECU being on the other side of the state. Obvious issue with this unity pledge: it’s garbage. Uconn and Rutgers are not turning down the ACC if invited.

Since Midnight: Confirmation that the LHN was the deal-breaker in the Pac-12 decision to remain at 12 and pass on the Pac-16.

Since Midnight: report that Big East will be aggressive in expansion. Navy and Air Force at the top of the list and the conference will consider increasing the exit fee from $5 million.

Since Midnight: BYU is expected to be the #10 school added to the Big 12, assuming that Oklahoma does not pursue SEC membership.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011:

You’ll find most of the info from yesterday still holds but with a few additions.

* In addition to the Big East non-football schools discussing a split, the potential Big 12 remnants (should Pac-16 occur) and the remaining Big East football schools are considering a merger. There are multiple scenarios on the table:
1) Big East hybrid brings in all remaining Big 12 schools wich is expected to be a maximum of 5…would give Big East 12 for football and 20 for all-sports.
2) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big East umbrella without basketball-only schools
3) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big 12 banner (assuming the better Big 12 bowls for the time being)

* As mentioned on this site earlier, Villanova did officially apply to the ACC. Mentality is they don’t want to be left behind. Nova would upgrade to FBS football if need be, but would also love to join as a non-football member should a 15th school like Notre Dame join for non-football sports.

* The Big East has claimed that they will hold Pitt and Syracuse to the conference contract, meaning both schools will need to wait 27 months before leaving for the ACC. That’s 3 lame duck seasons and a $5 million exit fee. You can bet that the Big East and ACC lawyers will be negotiating, trying to find a way to get both schools out early for a set fee. ACC schools would likely contribute to the cause since the sooner they get those schools in, the sooner they can renegotiate their TV contracts by adding the Pitt and Syracuse value.

* Note that the Big East TV contract is up for renewal soon. It’s unlikely that networks will be willing to pay as much knowing that both schools and perhaps others will be leaving soon. So it would be wise for the Big East to try to milk the ACC for extra money via exit fees in return to letting the schools out early.

* If the Big East is planning to hold exiting schools to the 27 months, then one shouldn’t be shocked if the ACC invited Uconn and Rutgers sooner than later as they would need to plan 3 years in advance due to exit dates. Adding those 2 schools, 4 total, would give the ACC the majority of the markets/schools that the proposed new Big East TV contract would include.

* As expected, the Big East basketball school coaches want the hybrid to remain as for now, it means they compete against Uconn, Louisville, etc.

* The Mountain West has had preliminary discussions internally (and feeling out the school) about asking TCU if they’d like to remain in the Mountain West. If the Big East were to lose Uconn and Rutgers to the ACC and say Missouri was not part of the Big East/Big 12 merger, TCU might be wise to consider remaining in the MWC. Key will be if the MWC can get a BCS autobid, something the Big East/B12 merger will likely have. But if the group is: TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, USF and 1-3 CUSA schools, TCU might still find this group to be more appealing than remain/returning to the MWC.

* The Mountain West and CUSA are again discussing a football-only merger. The idea would be for the 2 separate conferences to combine their TV contracts for football, possibly staging some sort of championship game of champions. Note that the primary motive of the merger will be to gain a BCS automatic berth by claiming that it’s 1 spot for 24 schools, taking political heat off the BCS as it would give BCS access to those 24 schools.

* MWC might try to get BYU back if the conference had a BCS AQ.

* ECU, a school expected to once again be left out of the conference realignment shuffle by the BCS conferences, released a statement you’d expect from the former Iraqi Minister of Propaganda, proclaiming ECU is actively involved in what is happening now. That is not true if by “involved” they mean they have BCS options on their own.

* Both Oklahoma and Texas have granted authority to their school presidents to pursue Pac-12 membership. For Texas though, the regents would need to be back involved if a formal move to the Pac-12 were recommended by their president.

* Oklahoma made it clear that they are less interested in rebuilding the Big 12 due to the threat of litigation by Big 12 members, claim such threats should not be the basis of goodwill if trying to keep a conference member from leaving.

* The ACC has had discussions with Texas regarding all-sports membership, but one of the reported issues is that if Texas joined for all-sports (which is what the ACC seems to be demanding), the ACC would prefer Texas and Kansas, NOT Texas and Texas Tech.

* Uconn feels it has a better than average chance of joining the ACC.

* SEC is rumored to have less interest in WVU as previously thought.

Monday, September 19, 2011:

* As we know from yesterday, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will be joining the ACC

* Per sources, the ACC move came as a shock to the Big 12 schools, notably Texas, and has put the primary focus by Texas to be to join the Pac-12 (with Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech) or to rebuild the Big 12.

* Per reports, the Texas and ACC discussions HAD been solely about Texas joining for non-football sports and going independent in football.

* Notre Dame has been another ACC option for non-football sports. The idea was to expand to 14 for football with Syracuse and Pitt, and to bring in Texas AND Notre Dame for non-football sports. The addition of Texas without Notre Dame for non-football sports is not high on the ACC wishlist.

* Per sources, the ACC is showing some flexibility with Texas joining with Texas Tech for all-sports.

* Per sources, the ACC is not willing to be flexible in regards to the Texas LHN, meaning the network revenues would need to be distributed evenly to all ACC members (making membership in the ACC less appealing to Texas).

* Texas had similar interest in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has no flexibility in regards to the Texas LHN.

* Per sources, the Pac-12 will almost certainly expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* Pac-12 expansion to 16 would be likely approved by the Pac-12 presidents if Texas agrees to the Pac-12 TV demands in regards to the LHN.

* Texas is willing to roll-up the LHN into the Pac-12 TV regional model, but the holdup is in the distribution of revenue. The Pac-12 is holding to it’s demands that a school like Texas will not be permitted to keep more revenue and would need to put that into the “Pac-12 kitty” to be shared by all members. The rationale is that there are Pac-12 TV regional networks in places like Los Angeles that will generate more revenue that say, “Mountain” (Colorado/Utah) yet USC and UCLA have agreed to split the revenue evenly…so Texas would be required to as well if a power like USC is.

* According to Pac-12 writer Jon Wilner, Missouri IS indeed a target for the Pac-12.

* Kansas is a Pac-12 target to a lesser extent.

* Kansas and Missouri would only be considered for the Pac-12 IF Texas passes on the Pac-12 TV demands.

* The Pac-12 is considering a 4 school “Pod” system for alignment so that schools aren’t grouped into hard 8 and 8 divisions. The pods being the preference because each school wants access to California and schools like Arizona and ASU fear being cut off forever if grouped with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, Colorado and Utah.

* Missouri and Kansas would be part of a pod with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* The very mention and consideration of Missouri and Kansas as potential Pac-16 options are to put MORE pressure on Texas to take it or leave it (regarding Pac-12 offer). Because if Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Missouri and Kansas leave the Big 12, and Texas has then the ONLY option to rebuild the Big 12, Texas would be forced to be in a rebuilt Big 12 conference with a core membership of: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. Even if they pulled a coup and brought in Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, TCU…it would be a vastly inferior TV product…especially with the risk that Rutgers and Uconn could still head to the ACC, WVU to SEC.

* The Big East basketball schools are considering a split from the Big East. The fear being that with the Big East down to 7 members, they will need to expand and the likely candidates would be less desirable basketball schools (since the Big East might need to bring in Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. to get Missouri and Kansas without lawsuits from the other 3 mentioned schools.

* The Big East basketball schools are also positioning themselves so that if the core football schools leave for the Big 12, the non-football schools would not be forced to remain with less desirable basketball programs like USF and TCU.

* If the Big East non-football schools did split, they would likely target expansion candidates to 9 or 10 total members. Schools considered at the top of the list would include Xavier, Richmond, St. Louis, Butler, Dayton.

* There have been no developments with the SEC. TAMU has not officially joined until the Big 12 determines it’s own future and there are no threats of member lawsuits. If the Big 12 falls due to a Pac-16 creation, then the SEC would formally bring in Texas A&M for #13. There would be no rush for a #14, but if the Big 12 fell, Missouri would likely apply for the 14th spot, potentially even if the Pac-12 invited them, despite Missouri preferring Big Ten membership. WVU is also considered by many to be a candidate, but has much less to offer financially compared to Missouri in regards to TV market penetration.

* Over the next week of two, we could possible see:

Pac 14: Oklahoma & OSU joining
Pac 16: Oklahoma, OSU, Texas & Texas Tech joining
Pac-16: OU, OSU, Kansas and Missouri joining
ACC 14/16: Texas and Notre Dame joining for non-football sports
ACC 14/16: Notre Dame and Villanova joining for non-football sports
ACC 16: Texas and Texas Tech joining
ACC 16: Uconn and Rutgers joining
SEC 13: Texas A&M joining (confirmed)
SEC 14: TAMU and Missouri joining
SEC 14: TAMU and WVU joining
Big 12 Rebuilt: Texas, TTech, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor and Iowa St. adding 4 new members such as Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, BYU, TCU, Houston
Big East Reboot: 7 remaining schools bring in 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 football/20 school basketball conference
Big East Split: 7 remaining football schools bring in all 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 school all-sports conference
Big 12 Reboot: 5 remaining Big 12 schools bring in 7 remaining (or less is some leave) for reboot of Big 12 conference (would allow football schools to all leave Big East, causing a split from basketball schools)
Big East as Basketball-Only: 7 remaining Big East schools, all basketball members, bring in 3 other non-football schools, keeping the Big East brand.

That’s it so far…but it’s only 12:00ET today.

The ACC could as soon as today be announcing the additions of Syracuse and Pitt as the 13th and 14th members. (UPDATE: they did an hour after writing this)

But what happens next for the ACC is still a mystery.

The ACC is poised to also add UConn and Rutgers to expand to 16. This is the move that always seemed the most logical from a business perspective. The ACC sits in the backyard of the SEC for football…and the SEC has been a rich and powerful neighbor. The only way for the ACC to keep up is to claim new territory as exclusively theirs. The addition of Boston College did give them some access into New England. But a single school doesn’t do much. This was still Big East country were were talking about, with Boston College just an outsider in their yard.

But if Syracuse, Pitt, Uconn and Rutgers were all to join the ACC, there is no argument: the ACC would be the eastern seaboard conference in regards to influence and cache.

The addition alone of Pitt and Syracuse will be a big help in this goal. Adding Uconn and Rutgers would lock it up. With all four schools included, there would be no debate: the northeast would be ACC country, fitting for a conference named the “Atlantic Coast Conference”. You’d see a conference with the best D1 FBS programs from MA, CT, NY, NJ, MD, VA and NC in a conference together. The other states and markets? You’d have Pittsburgh, a school in the heart of Big Ten country due to the Penn St. proximity. In South Carolina and Georgia, you have your 2 school, ACC/SEC split. And in Florida, the ACC celebrates having both Florida St. and Miami while the SEC has a single representative, powerhouse Florida.

The basketball benefits of adding all 4 Big East schools are easy to see. Syracuse ad Uconn are national championship winners, Pitt a national power, and Rutgers considered by some to be a sleeping giant.

But football is what drives expansion and in that regard, it’s hard to look at the two likely newest additions or potential future additions like UConn and Rutgers and think “home run”. With football powers like Nebraska on the move last year, and brands like Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma on the brink as well, the ACC moves on the surface might seem lackluster. But it’s the long term stability of the conference that benefits. What started with last weeks ACC exit fee boost, a move to keep the ACC schools together, expansion is the next logical step.

And now, at the time of this article, it appear that Syracuse and Pitt are all but officially the ACC’s next members.

But for now, it’s only those two schools.

Expansion to 16 with Rutgers and Uconn isn’t entirely in the plans yet.

And that is because the ACC is likely to wait for Notre Dame and Texas to officially notify the conference they are not interested in joining as all-sports members.

Those two schools would make the ACC an even bigger power. And there is an argument that even adding them for non-football sports would be a benefit.

Should they pass, the ACC would likely wait to see what happens with the other conferences, such as the Pac-12 and SEC, before deciding on a path to 16 with Rutgers and UConn.

What’s Next?

Meanwhile, the Big 12 situation hasn’t gone away.

Oklahoma still seems poised to pursue the Pac-12, a move that would seem to bring along Oklahoma St.

If adding Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., the Pac-12 would also want to add Texas (a move that would bring Texas Tech along).

But Texas has other plans:
* Consider the ACC in some capacity
* Rebuild the Big 12 (would be down to 7 members without OU/OSU) by likely targeting Big East schools such as Louisville and WVU).
* Move to the Pac-16

But it’s the ACC moves combined with the potential Big 12 openings that are making things the most interesting:

The Big East is about to drop to 7 members. The Big 12 to 7 members if Oklahoma/OSU leave and Texas stays. Wouldn’t the easiest solution be to just merge the two under the Big 12 banner? Perhaps.

The proposed lineup could look like…

Big 12 – East: Uconn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Missouri, USF
Big 12 – West: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St.,  Iowa St

Seems easy, right?

No.

It would require true LHN greed for Texas to want to be associated with this group over a more prestigious Pac-16 of ACC.

It would require WVU, Missouri, Louisville, etc to pass on an SEC #14 invitations.

And as we have seem, it’s every man for themselves. Expecting a school to pass on stability for a strange union is asking a lot.

So one potential path we could see in the coming weeks:

* SEC to 14 with Texas A&M and a 14th school (WVU or Missouri)
* ACC to 14 or 16 with Pitt & Syracuse (perhaps UConn and Rutgers)
* Pac-16 with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.
* Big East remnants (4 or 5 schools) leave to join the Big 12 remaining schools (4 or 5 schools) in some capacity.

The last option there is a result of the ACC developments.

For the past few weeks, it appeared that the Big East was poised to benefit if the Big 12 folded. The conference of 9 football schools could have had the power to add 3-5 remaining schools, left out of the SEC and Pac-12. Instead, due to the expected Pitt and Syracuse defections, it means the Big East is weakened with only  7 schools. If Uconn and Rutgers leave, it’s only 5 members. If WVU joined the SEC, it’s only 4 members. At some point, the Big East will need to decide if it is best to just encourage the football schools (USF, Cincinnati, TCU, Louisville, WVU) to leave or bring in all the Big 12 schools. But the Big East schools might find more solace in joining a non-hybrid conference like the Big 12 .

So what could the Big 12 look like?
Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor, TCU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF

It’s going to be an interesting day, and interesting week.

And now, the ACC looks like it might take an even more proactive stance: by expanding to 14 or beyond.

The latest developments are that at least 10 schools have applied to the ACC. Notable schools include Pitt and Syracuse. The inclusion of Pitt over Rutgers or Uconn might come as a bit of a surprise, given the New York City market access those programs could provide the ACC along with Syracuse. But if Pitt were to be included in any ACC expansion, it could be due to the involvement of a nearby Pitt opponent: Notre Dame.

In addition to the latest on Syracuse and Pitt, it is also believed that Notre Dame might be considering joining the ACC for it’s non-football sports. The schools and the ACC have had discussions over the past decade, including a similar scenario in which Notre Dame was to have joined as the 13th member following the addition of Boston College.

The discussions within the ACC come directly as a result of the soon to be 13 school SEC, with the addition of Texas A&M, being right in the ACC’s backyard.

As the Big 12 schools have been considering their own options, it appears that Texas would be in a position in which they would either have to remain in an Oklahoma-less Big 12 and rebuild or leave with Texas Tech to form a new Pac-16. But over the past week, Texas and the ACC have discussed various membership opportunities. The ACC became a target by Texas as it was the only conference that had not officially rejected the idea of Texas retaining it’s own LHN network.

As it stands now, there seem to be 5 potential paths with some additional variable such as the specific schools added:

1) The ACC expands to 14 for all sports with Syracuse and Pitt the top candidates.

2) The ACC expands to 16 for all sports with Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers and UConn. This is a scenario that has always seems the most logical as it would lock up the population rich northeast markets as ACC territory and bridging Boston College to other ACC member Maryland. Of course, that is only a 16 team scenario should Notre Dame and Texas pass as members.

3) Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Texas join for all-sports

4) Pitt and Syracuse join for all-sports, Texas and Notre Dame would join for non-football sports. Texas would also opt to participate as a football independent, part of  small group comprised of Notre Dame, BYU, Army and Navy.

5) The ACC expands to 16 total schools for all-sports with 2 likely Big East schools (Syracuse and Pitt), and joined by Texas and Texas Tech

The ACC is officially commenting that there have been discussions, but no final decisions.

The identities of the 10 formal ACC applicants is also unknown at this time. As the applications could include non-football membership, one potential list of 10 could include:

Pittsburgh (confirmed)
Syracuse (confirmed)
Texas
Texas Tech
Notre Dame
Rutgers
UConn
Villanova (confirmed discussions)
WVU
Louisville

So it seems that Florida St., one of the stronger programs in the ACC, is putting aside it’s “ACC solidarity” stance for a minute to consider all it’s options.

With the future of the Big 12 seemingly sitting in the hands of Oklahoma, who is considering an official pursuit of Pac-12 membership (along with Oklahoma St.), and the SEC set to expand to 13 with Texas A&M (and presumably an eventual 14), it is the general understanding that these movements would put the NCAA on the brink of the super conference structure.

ACC schools are considered to be the top targets for the SEC #14 spot as well as potentially 15 and 16. But thus far, schools such as Florida St. and Virginia Tech have taken a passive approach. Thus far, the stance has been: if you (SEC) is interested in us, you need to contact us first and extend an invitation. But the SEC, filled with fears from the onset of the Texas A&M flirtation, has held it’s stance that a school must contact the conference with interest…a move the SEC feels frees itself from any legal obligations to the schools other conference members.

Florida St. has been considered by most to be, along with Virginia Tech, the top SEC options. But there was also believed to be a “gentleman’s agreement” that the SEC would only add schools from new states not represented already by the SEC. This removed schools like FSU, Clemson, GA Tech and with the VA Tech decree of “not interested”, seemed to limit the pool to schools such as WVU and Missouri.

But even the schools claiming no immediate interest know that super conferences would be a game changer.

If the SEC expands to 13, the Pac-12 is likely to invite Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Their additions would likely pressure Texas into making a move (with a Pac-16 an option with Texas and Texas Tech). The SEC would then have 13 with TAMU and consider schools like Missouri, WVU and the ACC schools for #14. But if the SEC went to 16, following a Pac-16, the ACC schools might need to make a move.

The ACC is in a comfortable position in the conference realignment future, but seemingly well behind the SEC, Pac-12 and Big Ten. The Big East and Big 12 remain lower. But in a move to 16 school conferences, it would likely mean the end to the Big East and Big 12…putting the ACC as the lowest on the totem pole.

And the ACC schools realize that.

As does the ACC commissioners office.

Because there is now a scenario being discussed in which Texas could join the ACC if Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. leave. Furthermore, Texas is considering a scenario in which they become a football independent and join the ACC for it’s other sports.

But for the ACC, they now realize they need to consider all their options, just as FSU is.

The ACC could be proactive by expanding to 16 first with three schools such as Uconn, Syracuse and Rutgers, and lock up the entire east coast from Boston College, into Hartford, into the NY/NJ area with Syracuse and Rutgers, then into Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

While those moves would lock up better television money with the new markets, it would only work if all the ACC schools remain.

And the SEC would have an appealing option if they expanded to 16 with Florida St., locking up the rich football recruit state of Florida with it’s two top programs. In adding Virginia Tech, the SEC would add a more northern market (and great football program) with access in the Richmond and DC markets. Missouri would still be an excellent SEC option for #16 by providing a new state and the Kansas City and St. Louis markets…right in the Big Ten’s footprint.

* Pac-16 a possibility with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St.

* Big 12 survival plans: If no Pac-16 defection, Big East raid of 2-3 schools a possibility

* Missouri as SEC #14 candidate would add 4th Big East team to Big 12 sights

* Pac-16 defections from Big 12 likely means end to Big 12 with Big East absorbing “leftovers”

* Can Big 12 “survive” by just absorbing all Big East football members (Big East split scenario)

When Texas A&M first made it public that they were interested in pursuing the SEC, the college sports world realized that what had been avoided last summer (utter chaos) could once again be within reach. In an article a few weeks ago titled “Potential SEC Expansion and the Conference Realignment Dominoes“, I addressed some of the possible scenarios that could play out.

As time progressed, it appeared that even if Texas A&M were to leave for the SEC (they have since announced they are planning to in fact leave the Big 12), that the Big 12 would keep their union of merry men together, a team of 9, that would simply “consider” adding a 10th school as a replacement. Seems fairly simple: you lose a school, and you replace that school and everyone lives happily ever after. Schools like BYU and TCU were considered high on the list, as was Houston (to replace the lost Texas A&M market), as well as schools outside the current footprint such as Pitt, Air Force, etc. Of course the “big get” options were Notre Dame and Arkansas, but neither school is expected to give the Big 12 much thought.

On the SEC side, it did appear that eventually, a 14th school might be an option. Various sources claim though that if the SEC were to add a 14th school, said school would likely have to come from a state NOT currently represented in the SEC. So ACC schools such as Florida St., Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami were CONSIDERED to be “off the list”. And with ACC solidarity by the 4 North Carolina schools, they seemed as if they were not options. And with some very public comments out of Virginia Tech, it appeared that school too would be taking itself off the SEC list.

Then you have schools like Missouri who also claimed little interest in the SEC (although we all assume that is not the case and instead it’s an effort by the school to avoid the embarrassment they suffered last year when publicly courting the Big Ten only to be passed over).

Seemingly, all of a sudden, it appeared the SEC was down to only a few options such as WVU, Louisville (seemingly a school in an SEC state that had less resistance from SEC members). Not exactly homeruns for the nations superior football conference.

Regardless, it still appeared that all would be well. The SEC would expand to 13 and maybe 14 at some point. The ACC would remain as is. The Big 12 would add a single replacement. Not exactly anything drastic.

But now that might all be changing.

Now, it appears that the seismic, drastic changes could actually still happen. And the result might be that mythical beast we’ve spoken about many times here before: the birth of the Super Conferences.

So here’s where we are now:

SEC:

* The SEC appears to be set on adding Texas A&M as it’s 13th member.
* The #14 options are still all out there. If things remain as they are now, then Missouri or WVU could be the options.
* Depending on what happens with the Big 12, that could change the SEC strategy.

In other words, the “gentlemen’s agreement” of not adding schools in current SEC states might be scrapped if there were seismic changes. So the move to 14 might actually become a move to 16 if other conferences make a push to 16 before the SEC does.

The SEC might be the conference that starts the mass movement, but they might actually be reactionary in growing beyond 13 if other conferences like the Pac-12 make bold moves.

Big 12:

All seemed well. BYU, TCU, Houston, Louisville, Pitt, Air Force and even perhaps SMU (they want in the Big 12…no, really?) were notable candidates for the #10 spot.