The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

The move gives the SEC exactly what it needs: a new region with new markets to help improve it’s already massive television package. With Texas A&M joining and the SEC already a dominant force in it’s current footprint, there were few schools that could give the SEC some of the financial benefits they wanted…despite Missouri being just a so-so sports product compared to some more powerful programs like say, Florida St. In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a strong toehold in Big 12 country to go with Texas A&M with the SEC now expanding as far west as the market of Kansas City.

But the real benefit might be in regards to the creeping up on the Big Ten.

In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a school right in the Big Ten backyard…and sharing what had been very much a Big Ten city in St. Louis, thanks to all the nearby Illinois graduates as well as all the Big Ten alumni living in St. Louis.

The SEC can now go forward with an SEC Network, knowing that they will have instant success in new markets like Houston, Kansas City and St. Louis.

Missouri is expected to join the SEC next season.

But that might be a problem for the Big 12.

The Big 12 added West Virginia to replace Missouri. But due to a 27 month waiting period by the Big East, WVU will not be expected to join the Big 12 next season. A lawsuit by WVU vs. the Big East was greeted with a loawsuit by the Big East vs. WVU. So the Big 12 will likely be forced to participate at 9 members next season.

* But now, various outlets including Pete Thamel of the New York Times are reporting that Louisville has gotten some political pressure placed on the Big 12 to invite Louisville instead of WVU. Thamel’s sources are saying it’s now 50/50 between Louisville and WVU for the post-Missouri #10 spot. Both schools need to hope now that the Big 12 opts for 12 schools, inviting both of them along with a 12th like BYU.

* While all eyes are on the Big 12 and Big East, the WAC put out some interesting news as well, saying they plan to add 2 more schools by the the 2013-2014 season.

Much of what the WAC does will depend on how things play out with other conferences. But it seems safe to say that no CUSA, WAC or Sunbelt schools will be included.

That leaves FCS upgrades as the only options.

Lamar likely tops the list since they have made the most strides to join over the past year. The other schools the WAC was interested in have showed less interest. Montana remains at the top of the wishlist, but has so far declined the upgrade invitation. Montana St. is a school that many assume would need to upgrade as well for Montana to make a move. Portland St., Sacramento St., Cal – Poly, and UC-Davis are the other schools the WAC had shown some level of interest in from the west. In Texas, in addition to Lamar, Sam Houston St. has been on the radar.

WVU will replace Missouri who is expected to leave for the SEC. WVU will pay a $5 exit fee since the $10 fee hike only kicks in once Air Force or Navy join the Big East…and neither has done so.

The plan is for WVU to join next year, the same time Missouri is expected to leave. If somehow Missouri opted to remain (which is not going to happen), the Big 12 would likely bring in Louisville to expand to 12. The Big 12 is still however, uncertain if they plan to remain at 10 with WVU or expand to 12 and qualify for a championship game.

If the Big 12 lost Missouri and expanded to 12, Louisville would be the #11 school added after WVU. The issue at hand is finding a #12 option. BYU remains a candidate, however there have been some issues with their inclusion. There is also the chance that if the Big East continues to lose members, that Notre Dame might flee for the Big 12 as well, since the conference has shown some willingness to invite Notre Dame as a non-football member. Such a move would also permit BYU to remain in the WCC for non-football sports and join as a football only member.

As for TCU, a Big 12 invitation would be a dream cone true. Left out of the Big 12 when the Big 8 and SWC merged two decades ago, TCU has had more movement than any school in Division 1:

Southwest Conference > WAC > CUSA > MWC > agreed to move to Big East (BCS conference) > Big 12 (as they never participated in the Big East, the school would be free to move without the 27 month waiting period that current Big East members must face).

Many had thought the Big 12 would avoid adding another Texas school, due to the ill-will perceived coming out of University of Texas, as well as the Texas A&M departure.

However, TCU does bring a more successful football program than Texas A&M at this time, a program better than most of the available candidates.

While many feel that adding TCU does little for adding new TV markets to the conference, since Texas dominates most of the cities in the state, there is another factor to consider: alumni. With TCU in the Big 12, it gives all the alumni from Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Kansas and Kansas St. that live in Dallas (one of the cities with the most Big 12 school alumni) more opportunities to support Big 12 athletics.

Another important note is that if TCU joins for #10, it is expected that the Big 12 will remain at 10. This would exclude schools like BYU, Louisville and WVU. However, with Missouri remaining, the Big 12 would be wise to consider expansion to 12 with Louisville and WVU, as Missouri would be a natural bridge to both states. An eastern expansion would give the conference enough members for a championship game, but also increase the conferences exposure in the eastern markets, with some residual penetration into the now weakened northeast media markets now split between the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (WVU, Uconn, Rutgers).

As for the Big East, despite any spin, the loss of TCU would be a serious blow. TCU was added as a means to boost the football performance. For the majority of the BCS bids that the Big East has had, the Big East had the lowest BCS ranking of the AQ bids. At times, the Big East BCS representative reanked in the 25-32 spot and many question why the Big East had an AQ while schools like TCU, Boise St., Utah and others were at times left out of the BCS despite a top 10 ranking.

The Big East would then be down to 6 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. The conference planned to regroup from 7 with the addition of 2-3 schools. Now they will be looking to add 3-4. The candidate pool is far from attractive in regards to a BCS bid. Air Force will likely pass at this point, as would Navy for football only…unless the Big East comes up with a solid plan and all remaining schools remain. Uconn has it’s eyes set on the ACC, hoping the conference can get Notre Dame to join and Uconn for #16. Uconn and Rutgers remain options for the ACC should they expand to 16.

If the big 12 stops at 10, it means that the Big East 6 will likely remain and there is enough political cache to retain the BCS bid. But if Louisville and WVU were to leave (Big 12/SEC), that might change. All of a sudden, schools like SMU, Houston, Memphis, ECU, Temple, Villanova, UMass, etc aren’t going to be enough to add to football prestige.

On paper, it would seem like an easy decision. The SEC IS college football, the best in the nation. The conference is stable with large per-school revenue payouts. For the SEC, Missouri offers even more penetration into Big 12 country (in addition to Texas A&M) and into Kansas City and helps the SEC make it’s way into Big Ten territory via the statewide appeal of the program and into St. Louis. These markets would help the overall viewership of the SEC and be a huge boost to a potential SEC Network.

For Missouri in the Big 12, the benefits are less tangible. It would be less money. It would mean remaining in a conference that two years in a row has nearly fallen apart. And if the Big 12 fell apart and Missouri passed on the SEC, it is doubtful that opportunity would present itself again, nor a coveted Big Ten invitation. What Missouri would get would be to maintain rivalries with nearby Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., and the connection to Oklahoma and Texas.

Yet, based on comments this weekend, it appears Missouri is leaning towards remaining in the Big 12.

So within a few hours, we should know the fate of a number of conferences.

Various reports claim that if Missouri remains in the Big 12, that the Big 12 might be adding BYU, TCU and Louisville.

The result would be the Big East down to 5 members: WVU, Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati and USF. So even as the Big East has lined up talks with UCF, SMU, Air Force for all-sports, Temple for either football-only or all-sports, and Navy for football-only, the Big East would need to look at adding all of these schools or others currently not on the list (such as ECU, Memphis, Houston).

If spurned by Missouri, the SEC might then very likely invite WVU to be the #14 school, another blow to the Big East.

And if Missouri were to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, there remains a strong chance that the Big 12 could invite BYU, TCU, Louisville and WVU. This would result in the Big East being down to Uconn, Rutgers, Cincinnati and USF. And at this point, one has to wonder if the Big East would even both with expansion since it would require the conference to invite 5-6 schools to get back to 9 or reach the number 10 they had set out for late in 2010.

If you’re the Big East basketball schools, how thrilled would you be having to add SMU, Houston, UCF, Temple, Air Force for all-sports and Navy or ECU for football-only? It would seem that if the Big East were down to 4 members, you’ll start hearing talks of UCF and perhaps even Cincinnati joining CUSA for all-sports and Uconn and Rutgers for football-only. Or course at this point, CUSA might have more cache than the Big East and require all-sports membership. Uconn and Rutgers would then be forced with the choice: join CUSA for all-sports or approach the MAC or Sunbelt for football-only…or participate as independents.

Which brings us to Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has passed on full membership as the Big East has served their needs for non-football sports while allowing them to preserve independence in football.

But if the Big East falls apart, all the large football schools, is Notre Dame going to remain with the 7 small private/catholic schools? Likely not.

So if the Big 12 opts to take 3 Big East schools, Notre Dame might be forced to make the all-sports move to the ACC…and option they would likely prefer over the Big Ten due to northeast market exposure (Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh) as well as southern recruiting benefits of ACC membership.

And it is believed that once the ACC has a final decision from Notre Dame, that Uconn would be in the mix. So if Notre Dame joins for #15, Uconn would be brought in for #16. And if Notre Dame officially passes on the ACC, the Uconn and Rutgers would likely be brought in for the 15 and 16 spots.

The result again: Big East destruction.

In the perfect world, Missouri will announce they are remaining in the Big 12 and that the Big 12 opts to remain at 9. And if they were to expand, adding now independent BYU for #10 would keep the conference shifts minimal. But even this would require the SEC to pass on a #14 school and for the Big East current 7 football schools to remain together.

So here’s where we stand:

Big 12 Stability:

* Yes, the Big 12 seems to be doing what they did just last year…pledge unity with each other, with Texas and Oklahoma being the primary torch carriers for the conference. This year, the recommended changes weren’t to help the top ranking members like last years decisions were. This time around, unity was defined as spreading the wealth. So what is on the table is equal revenue sharing for Tier 1 and Tier 2 television rights. But the kicker…

* The 6 year conference grants rights: on the table is where all Big 12 members would forfeit their TV rights to the Big 12 for a 6 year period…and the current TV deal runs for 5 years. So if a school left the Big 12, they would not even have their own TV rights for that year. The result would be a revenue loss greater than a simple “exit fee” would be. But…

* Missouri seems to be holding things up. There are reports from the SEC that they are not expecting to expand beyond 14. But it seems to be a semantics game at this point. We know the SEC has some level of interest in Missouri. We know this because all the Big 12 members, including their acting commissioner, have made reference to Missouri and the school waiting to decide if they will remain in the Big 12. As we know they are not considering an offer from another conference, it would seem that Missouri is still considering the SEC.

* The SEC semantics game is likely legal posturing. They have made it clear that a school must reach out the the SEC and apply to the SEC in order to ever be considered. Legally, the SEC is positioning themselves so that IF they added Missouri, it would be Missouri reaching out to them.

* Missouri will have a meeting on Tuesday to discuss their conference situation. If they opt to pursue the SEC, they would follow the same path as Texas A&M in negotiations. If they opt to remain in the Big 12, it is a 6 year commitment. Missouri would need to join the other Big 12 members and everyone sign the 6 year grants waiver. Result would mean Missouri would be off the table for the SEC or any other conference (Big Ten) for 6 years.

* If Missouri does have the SEC as an option, it would be tough to pass on after the past 2 years in the Big 12. Especially since passing means that if the SEC finds 13 schools to be too difficult and needs a 14th, they would be left out of that mix in favor of a school like WVU or if the SEC could obtain an ACC school.

* The Big 12 has replaced expansion committee chair, Missouri chancellor Deaton, with Kansas St. president Kirk Shultz. The assumption is the potential conflict of interest if Missouri is considering the SEC. Other sources claim Shultz has been the chair all along.

* Big 12 Commissioner Chuck Neinas says he expects Missouri to remain in the Big 12.

Big 12 Expansion:

* The Big 12 expansion plans have been all over the map. Journalists who regularly have excellent sources and information have conflicting reports on a day to day basis.

* At first, it appeared that the Big 12 would be “aggressive” and likely expand to 12.

* Then, due to feedback from the TV partners, it appeared 10 would be the number with BYU or TCU topping the list. The rationale was that the networks would value either school as much as Texas A&M, so the annual revenue would remain the same.

* It appeared that the lesser Big 12 programs favored expansion to 12 because it would promote security. That way, if 4 or 5 schools left in the future, the Big 12 would have 7-8 members and a controlling stake in their future. At even 7 schools, the Big 12 would be in a position to cherry pick schools from lower conferences. This time around, it appeared only 4-5 schools would have remained, removing much of the leverage and forcing the Big 12 “left overs” to do what other conferences, like the Big East, wanted.

* Texas was less interested in expanding beyond 10 due to potential revenue split by 12 schools and the chance it would lower the annual payouts per school…and loss of control by having 12 schools instead of just 9 others.

* Expansion in Texas was not desired by Texas. Other schools outside Texas like Kansas opposed expanding in Texas as well.

* As of today, it appears that the Big 12 is still undecided on 10 or 12 members.

* BYU still appears to top the list. The school would need to work their own ESPN/BYUtv situations into the Big 12 TV partnerships. They would also need to move their sports from the WCC to the Big 12.

* Reports yesterday claim that the Big 12, due to recommendations from their commissioner, are less hesitant on adding a Texas school (TCU). It is unknown if this decrease in reluctance is for TCU as the #10 member and sole expansion school…or if it is in the event that the Big 12 opted to expand eastward to get to 12 with TCU, Louisville, and WVU.

* If the Big 12 expands to 12, there seem to be a few paths they will consider:
A) Adding BYU, Louisville and WVU
B) Adding BYU, Louisville and TCU
C) Adding BYU, Boise St. and Louisville
D) If BYU passes, just Louisville
E) If BYU passes, just TCU
F) If BYU passes, add Louisville, TCU and WVU
G) If BYU passes, add Louisville, WVU and Rutgers
H) other 3 school scenarios less likely such as Boise St., Louisville and WVU

Big East & ACC Expansion:

* School presidents will meet in Washington D.C. this Sunday to discuss all options.

* Uconn has been posturing for an ACC invite. The ACC seems willing to add UConn but is waiting on Notre Dame at this point.

* Notre Dame is waiting to see what happens to the Big East before deciding on their future (ACC of Big Ten). More on that in a second.

* ACC looks like they might likely expand to 16 in the next year or two, perhaps sooner. If Notre Dame applies (due to Big East issues), Uconn will be invited for #16. If Notre Dame passes, the ACC might very well still add UConn and add Rutgers for #16.

* The  ACC took more control over the northeast markets with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Syracuse will likely play an ACC game in NY (Yankee Stadium, Meadowlands in NJ) each year too.

* ACC now has Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh in the region. The Big Ten still has the blue chip in Penn St. And the Big 12  is considering their own push with WVU and Louisville. This leaves the Big East with the lesser programs in the region (Uconn, Rutgers, WVU) for their share. So it is easy to see how the ACC expanding to 16 with Notre Dame and Uconn (or even Uconn and Rutgers) would be a final blow to the Big East. The ACC would then have the top 5 programs in the region after Penn St. and the TV revenue that the Big East expected to be for their conference would likely be shifted by ESPN to the ACC.

* WVU is still and will always be considered a candidate for the SEC #14 spot until the SEC fills that spot…even if the conference says 13 is fine. Because the media and fans will always focus on the symmetry of 14 and never embrace the idea of 13.

* The Big East is primarily looking at football-only members. Topping the list are Navy and Air Force.

* Air Force is a less likely option, contrary to reports, because by NCAA rules, Air Force could not remain in the geographically sound MWC for it’s other sports. MWC commissioner Thompson has clearly stated that if Air Force leaves for football, they leave for everything. Air Force would be forced to seek membership for non-football sports in conferences like the WCC, Big Sky or Summit. The WCC is less likely an option due to the conferences primary religious make-up. Both the Big Sky and Summit would be a drastic drop in quality.

* ECU and Temple are also attractive Big East options since both schools would accept football-only membership.

* UCF was considered a top option for #11 or #12 spots prior to Syracuse and Pitt leaving, as the football schools then held the power. The basketball schools were more willing to listen to adding a school like UCF then, as the Big East was stable. The basketball schools have less interest now in adding all-sports members when they are just a few schools lost away from dropping football sponsorship: translation, we don’t want to be stuck with all-sports schools we don’t want if you (football schools like UConn) leave.

* UCF is reportedly being blocked by USF anyways. So much for everyone supporting the good of the league.

* Houston is no longer an option, despite being one just a month ago for #11 or #12. See UCF two mentions above for the reason.

* Louisville coach Rick Pitino wants UL to remain in the Big East. He even promoted Memphis as an option for all-sports if they committed to football. He’s since gone dark on Memphis, instead feeling the Big East should add Navy, Army and Air Force to get to 10 members, then bring in Temple for all-sports for #11 and have Villanova upgrade to FBS for #12. Total would be 12 football/16 all-sports. Problem is that Army is not interest, Villanova does not want Temple, and Air Force and Navy would need stability (and Air Force a home for other sports).

Big East House of Cards:

* The Big East is in trouble. It could take just a single school leaving for everything to fall apart. For instance…

* If the Big 12 expanded with even a single Big East school (Louisville), then the Big East is down to 6 members.

* TCU will indeed consider remaining in the Mountain West if the Big East membership numbers drop further. Especially as the MWC is poised to apply for a BCS AQ with it’s current membership. TCU would secure a BCS AQ  bid for the MWC regardless of the BCS vote on the current MWC membership.

* If the Big East were down to 5 members: UConn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati and USF…they are in trouble. The basketball schools do not what any all-sports members from the available pool (UCF, Houston, Memphis, ECU, etc). So to get back to even 9 schools without any all-sports schools, it would mean having to add football-only members Navy, Air Force, Army, ECU or Temple. Not all would be willing to join. And these schools do not scream “BCS AUTOBID”. This would be a conference ranked lower than the MWC and on par with CUSA. So there is a real threat of losing the BCS AQ.

* On top of that, you have other conferences still making moves:
A) ACC: if they add two schools, even Notre Dame and Uconn, then TCU stays in the MWC. Big East down to 5
B) ACC: still an option that UConn and Rutgers join, TCU stays in MWC. Big East down to 4.
C) Big 12: you have not just Louisville, but also WVU on the radar. If both left regardless of the ACC, TCU leaves and you’re down to 4 schools.
D) Big 12: a longshot, but 3 Big East schools could be in the mix, TCU leaves too and Big East is down to 3 schools.

* So there stands a chance that if a single school leaves the Big East, the house crumbles. So what happens?

* Big East could be forced to drop football sponsorship. The result would likely be CUSA adding the 4 remaining Big East schools for football only (say UConn, Rutgers, Cincinnati, USF). Those 4 schools would remain in the Big East for other sports.

* Can’t rule out a scenario in which Cincinnati and UCF joined CUSA for all-sports with Uconn and Rutgers for football-only (remaining in the northeast based Big East).

* The simple point:  Big East could be in serious trouble if the Big 12 adds even a single Big East school.

* The Big 12 has reinstated the expansion committee, which was shelved when Oklahoma first threatened to leave.

* It is understood that if the Big 12 expands to 10 with a single replacement for Texas A&M, and that #10 school is either BYU or TCU, that the revenue figures for the television contract will remain as they are now.

* BYU is considered the top choice, with TCU now working it’s way into the #2 position as backup. But BYU is reportedly less interested in the Big 12 due to stability questions…as well as being forced to move it’s non-football sports out of the WCC.

* Missouri is in no way, at this time, fully committed to the Big 12. The SEC remains an option until all the agreements are formalized and signed by all Big 12 schools. This will require regents meetings by each Big 12 school, so it will take time. Meanwhile, with the instability 2 years in a row, Missouri would be wise to take the SEC opportunity now given the stable and lucrative nature of SEC conference membership.

* In the search for a 10th school, the process is not expected to need to go beyond BYU or TCU. If BYU were offered first and rejected, TCU would accept. If TCU offered first, TCU would accept.

* The “lower” Big 12 schools are stronger in support of expansion to 12. This would bring more stability in the event of a future departure. Oklahoma and OSU are proven flight risks to the Pac-12 or SEC. Missouri to the SEC or Big Ten (should Big Ten ever opt to expand again). Texas is a risk for not only Pac-12 and potentially the Big Ten, but also as a football independent via the LHN revenue. In adding 3 schools such as TCU, BYU and Louisville, or TCU, Louisville and WVU, the Big 12 would be safe if even 4 schools left the conference.

* Texas is less interested in expanding beyond 10 schools, which is why 10 seems to be the magic number.

* It is unknown if the networks would increase the annual value of the television contracts (average payout per school) if the Big 12 were to expand to 12. But one can assume that if BYU or TCU were viewed as equal to Texas A&M, then adding both and a more northeast school like Louisville would be an option. However, loss of Texas power via more members is certainly a concern by Texas as some conscious level.

* Because there is less of a push to go to 12, some seemingly lucrative 12 school scenarios so not seem to have as much support such as: Boise St/BYU/TCU, Boise St/Air Force/TCU, TCU/BYU/Louisville, Louisville/TCU/WVU

* Assuming something strange and drastic happened and both BYU and TCU were not available, the Big 12 would look at other candidates for #10 out of the Boise St., Louisville, Houston, SMU, Air Force pool.

With last nights bevy of press conferences, we were supposed to accept on the surface that “everything is swell”. We were to walk away with the general perception that a minor roadbump had occurred in the marriage of the member schools and that the schools, one that would be forgotten 50 years from now when the Big 12 is still in existence in it’s present form.

For the past year, we’ve looked at the Big 12 as a family our of a present day Americana tragady:

* Texas the patriarch and primary breadwinner of the family.

* Oklahoma the powerful matriarch who generates her own income

* Texas A&M the oldest son who resents father Texas

* Missouri the attractive daughter who is always winking to the smart & financially set (and diversified) neighbor to the north Big Ten and the rich proper southern gentleman, the SEC.

* Oklahoma St., the son from Oklahoma’s first marriage to the Big 8, connected to mother Oklahoma regardless of the marriage between Oklahoma and Texas

* Texas Tech, the lesser son of Texas’ first marriage with the SWC, who due to promises to Texas’ forefathers, would almost certainly be tied to Texas no matter what happens in the family.

* And a bevy of unplanned children in Baylor, Iowa St. Kansas and Kansas St. who on their own offer little, unable to contribute to the family as much as the other 6 schools.

And based on the press conferences and statements out of Oklahoma and Missouri last night, we are supposed to think that this American story is one we can all relate with: a family in turmoil who overcomes all the obstacles to make things work and secure a happy future.

Just like something we’d see on on Lifetime Network.

It’s a nice story, but it’s an incorrect interpretation by us all.

The story of the Big 12 isn’t one made for Lifetime, it’s one that is more appropriate for Animal Planet.

This isn’t the story of a happy human family in turmoil, it’s the story of an angry wolfpack, with pack members fighting for dominance, challenging the status of the Alpha, and not caring what happens to the ecosystem around them in the process.

Texas is clearly the Alpha. It was Texas who held all the cards last year when the Pac-16 almost happened with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas A&M.

Texas A&M is the nearby subordinate to Texas, knowing that there is very little they could do to ever gain the level of respect as the Alpha and opting to leave the pack to get out of the Texas shadow. It does not matter that they are leaving so much history behind. Leaving is the only way to find their own identity.

Oklahoma isn’t the matriarch, they are the angry #2 in the pack. And since alone they do not have the ability to take out the alpha, Texas, to take over leadership, the only thing they can do is knock Texas down a bit in the eyes of the rest of the pack.

It is these 3 schools that laid the foundation for what has happened over the past month. Texas greed via the LHN network, inferiority complex by Texas A&M and Oklahoma contributing to the problem with threats of leaving.

And when you’re conference leadership, those 3 powerful schools, act that way…it transforms this pack of animals into the closest thing we have in our own present day American society: jealous and petty businessmen, as we saw with the proposed Baylor legal threats on the SEC/TAMU.

So now on 9/23/11, we are to believe all has been resolved and unity is not just on the horizon, but is on fact in place.

But not so fast.

One thing is for sure. No matter how you look at it, no matter the intent, there are again clear winners: Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas and Kansas St. These 4 schools had no options but to step backwards if they were left out of the Pac-16 or SEC14, as joining with Big East schools would not come close to generating the revenue of these core Big 12 schools.

As for the future of the Big 12 membership, at least in the near future, here’s what we can expect to see:

* Big 12 members are interested in expanding to 12 to secure stability in the event that any members do leave (the same flight risks of Texas, Oklahoma with OSU, and Missouri).

* Texas is less interested in expanding to 12 because it would mean splitting the Tier 1 and Tier 2 TV revenue by 12 mouths instead of 10.

* Networks have let the Big 12 know that if the conference replaces Texas A&M with either BYU or TCU, that the value of the contract will remain as is and not take a drop.

* If the Big 12 were to add 3 schools to get to 12, it is unknown if the networks would improve their revenue payouts in a manner that would create equal per-school revenue as it is now.

* If the networks are willing to give the Big 12 the same amount by replacing Texas A&M with BYU or TCU for #10, one could hypothesize that if the Big 12 added BYU, TCU and say Louisville for 12, that there could be flexibility in increasing the total value of the contract so that the per-school revenue would remain the same as it is now. Plus, this would generate the ability for a revenue rich conference championship game.

* Again, Texas seems less interested in 12 than other Big 12 members, so it is unlikely to happen unless the per-school payout to Texas were to improve (meaning status-quo is not favorable to Texas)