Louisville is rumored to be the top replacement option in the ACC should Maryland leave, but many would look at Uconn as a better option. In Uconn, the ACC would match the Big Ten additions of Rutgers in the northeast by locking up Boston College, UConn, Syracuse and Pittsburgh for the ACC television contract. Louisville is still appealing, but would have less market penetration into the New York City DMA than UConn would. For the Big East, a departure by Maryland would certainly mean a loss for the Big East. With a Rutgers departure along with Uconn or Louisville, the Big East would be in serious trouble with their new television contract. Potential candidates would likely come from the Mountain West, with the Big East trying to create a western division with Boise St., San Diego St., SMU and Houston. Targets such as Fresno St., UNLV, and New Mexico (Army, Air Force and BYU have rejected previous Big East overtures) would need to find non-football conference homes from a smaller pool of options such as the Big West. But with Boise St., Hawaii and San Diego St. in the Big West, the conference would likely show flexibility in adding 2 of those schools if need be. For the ACC, a loss of Maryland might make Florida St. to reconsider any interest from the Big 12. Whether they joined with Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson or another school, the Big 12 would need to show they could generate an increased television contract to pay off the $50 million exit fee. Such a situation, where the Big Ten expanded to 14 and if the Big 12 expanded to 12 with 1-2 ACC schools, still means the ACC would be in a comfortable spot as the #5 overall conference. But the loss of 3 members, only to be replaced by 3 Big East schools, would be a blow to the ACC. If Maryland were to leave for the Big Ten, the ACC just hopes that the bleeding stops there.      

The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

The Big Ten meetings had plenty of hype going into them as many thought the world would get their first glimpse into the Big Ten expansion plans. And a glimpse is what we got. What we got from Jim Delany today was a reaffirmation that the Big Ten will continue with their study and won’t have any invitations extended until after November.

Based on what we’ve already seen from the Big Ten, the plan makes plenty of sense as there is no need to rush a decision on how to progress.

After listening to Delaney address the media, there are some other points we might be able to walk away with.

Notre Dame:
Based on the language Delaney used in regards to Notre Dame and their independence, it seems very unlikely that Notre Dame will be a Big Ten member. Delany seemed very much content that the Big Ten will not explore that path unless Notre Dame were to approach the Big Ten. and to clarify, Delany had nothing but positive things to say about Notre Dame.

Advanced Conference Realignment Graduate Course by Professor Delany:
Delany mentioned that the Big Ten has always studied expansion. But one of the more interesting parts (boring to some) was his breakdown of the conference realignment moves over the past 20 years, citing that there have been 71 changes in FBS football and 252 changes in all of Division 1 over the past two decades. Delaney seemed to reference a great number of conference changes over the time-frame, such as South Carolina leaving the ACC, GA Tech joining the ACC, the various VA Tech moves, and Boston College. Delany also gave us the answer to a trivia question: What are the only 3 conferences to have the same membership over the past 20 years? Answer: Pac-10, Ivy and 1 more. Can you name it? If you can you’ll get a “Pass” grade for the Conference Realignment Graduate Course. Answer is below for you cheaters.

Big Ten Expansion or a Bruce Springsteen Song?
Perhaps the one area of knowledge that nobody planned on hearing about in regards to Big Ten expansion and the conference meetings this week was the role of demographics in the expansion criteria. Both Delany and Iowa AD Gary Barta have made reference to some of the demographic info they’ve looked into. The point both have made was that much of the once population dense region that encompass the Big Ten footprint, have migrated to the south and the Sunbelt states. While the alumni base is still huge in the Big Ten markets, the point was that these population trends continue. You’d think you were listening to the lyrics from a Bruce Springsteen song as they’d described how jobs and people were leaving the Rust Belt for the Sun Belt.

Such a topic can lead us to believe that the Big Ten is considering this factor and could potentially expand to the South. Texas and Texas A&M; remain the crown jewel, but have not lead anyone to believe that they’d be interested in leaving the Big 12 for the Big Ten. Texas has it’s eyes set on launching their own Longhorn Network at some point, a scenario in which they would not need to split the revenue pot with every conference member.

So walking away from the meetings, the safest assumptions thus far are that the Big Ten will wait until November to make any moves. At that time, we can expect Notre Dame to be out of the equation and the same names that were on the initial candidate list will be the primary targets.

And the answer to the Conference Realignment History question? It’s the WCC.

Interesting developments, that’s for sure. But how reliable? WHB-AM in Kansas city is reporting that the Big Ten has extended invitations to Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri and Rutgers. ESPN ran with the story as well, but has since removed it from their website. So is it true?

Nebraska Chancellor Harvey Perlman responded by saying there was no truth, “none whatsoever” to the report in regards to Nebraska.

What is being rumored is that Nebraska, Missouri and Rutgers are the expected new members. If Notre Dame were to accept, then the Big Ten would then invite another school. Presumed targets for that final spot would be Syracuse, Pitt and even once-longshot UConn.

In other words, expansion would be to 14. If Notre Dame accepts as #15, then the conference would invite a 16th.

All this could happen.

But the timing is odd.

If the Big Ten were to expand, it’s been accepted as fact that the conference would first ask various schools to submit applications to join. In other words, the Big Ten would reach out to a group of schools, ask them to apply, and then chose from the applicants. This way, the Big Ten could prevent any embarrassment should they get rejected.

My personal opinion is that these schools might have been contacted to gauge interest and ask to formally apply…but not that the Big Ten has sent official invitations. Time will tell.

One thing is for sure…if this happens, the Big East is in trouble. While the financials might not seem to make as much sense right now, you’ll see the ACC express interest in some current Big East schools. You’d likely see the ACC explore adding Syracuse or Pitt (whichever was not invited to the Big Ten) along with Uconn.

All five schools have been mentioned in the past as candidates, along with Connecticut. Many seem to think that if it came down to 5 total schools, the Uconn and Pitt would be battling it out for the last spot. Regardless, there has been no update and we should still expect to wait until December for the Big Ten to make it’s intentions public.

Leading up to this months AAU Meeting and then BCS conference in Arizona, the buzz was all about conference expansion. Numerous “leaks” claimed that the Big Ten had pushed it’s timetable for expansion from the 12-18 months commissioner Jim Delaney originally stated, to a more recent timeframe like this upcoming fall or winter. The rationale was that if Big East schools such as Rutgers, Syracuse or Pitt were to leave, the sooner they could announce the better (Big East schools must give the conference a 2 year notice that they will be leaving…on top of an exit fee).

With this rumored push of the timetable to a nearer future, conferences like the Big East, ACC, Pac-10 were more quickly preparing for various outcomes.

So first we had the AAU meetings in which all 11 Big Ten schools met…and then the BCS meetings in Arizona…and the result was: nothing. With all the smoke surrounding Big Ten expansion and their intent to add 1-5 new members and fast-forwarding the timetable, many assumed there would be fire. Instead, there was nothing but hot air.

In the end, the Big Ten again came out and said that the timetable has not changed. And based on this, we should be inclined to believe it. There is no reason to rush what will be a huge decision by the conference that will indeed effect every other BCS conference.

If any Big East schools do leave for the Big Ten, they will be increasing their revenue from roughly $7-$8 million per year to $23-$25 million. So regardless of what fees these schools have to pay, they’d be able to cover it. Meanwhile, the Big Ten knows that expansion, especially to 16 schools, will lock them in to a membership group that will likely remain for quite a long time. Other conferences have grown to 16 teams, such as the WAC, and it failed. But the WAC did not have it’s own TV network and an overall near $250 million dollar TV revenue stream. When it comes to expansion, all sales are final, and the Big Ten needs to get it right and be sure it’s adding members that will guarantee that each of the current 11 members increases their overall revenue. Let’s be clear here: the only reason expansion is being considered is to make more TV money, not to help out a few of the Big East schools.

Meanwhile, an ESPN radio host has claimed that he has sources that the Pac-10 has a deal in place with both Utah and Colorado to join as it’s next 2 members. Perhaps that’s the case, as both schools have been at the top of the list for sometime…after Texas and Texas A&M; who have not expressed interest. But as of right now, despite the claims that the Pac-10 has Utah and Colorado ready for their stable, no announcement has been made and the Pac-10 remains at 10 schools. ESPN provided the smoke, but again it’s just hot air for now. Because until there is more transparent information available regarding the Pac-10 TV contract negotiations, and the Pac-10 can justify adding any members that aren’t Texas (or Texas A&M;), the Pac-10 won’t be making any expansion plans. Because as it is now, they make less money than the Big Ten, SEC or Big 12…so luring a Big 12 team would be a pay-cut at this time.

Also this week, we’ve seen SEC commissioner Mike Slive state that the SEC is preparing in the event that there are monumental conference changes and they too need to expand. Of course, the SEC is in a different spot than the Big Ten, as the SEC relies on it’s TV partnerships with networks as opposed to owning their own network. While the Big Ten has the most money, the SEC has the most recent success. If they were able to renegotiate their ESPN and CBS deals, they could justify bringing in 2-4 new members. A Boston Globe writer proposed the the SEC might make a move to add ACC members such as Georgia Tech, Clemson, Miami and Florida St. All would be fine additions. But just like the Pac-10 and Big Ten, the best option remains Texas along with Texas A&M.; There is an argument to be made that adding Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would do more for the SEC than adding Clemson and GA Tech, two schools in an already SEC dominated footprint.

The ACC remains in a more interesting position. They are unlikely to lose any members to the Big Ten if they do indeed expand by 1-5 schools. Only Boston College sits as a possibility, but only a strong fit if included with other northeast members Syracuse and Rutgers (as well as Notre Dame, UConn and Pitt as options). But if the Big East were to be raided, and became unstable, the ACC might be able to use the addition of northeast schools such as UConn and Pitt to increase their own TV contract which is soon up for renewal.

Of course, through all of this, the conferences in the most defensive positions are the Big East and Big 12. The Big East has 5 members on the Big Ten radar, when you include Notre Dame. The Big 12 seems to only have to worry about the potential losses of Missouri, Colorado (to Pac-10) and Nebraska. Finding three replacements would not be much of a problem with schools like BYU, Utah, UNLV, TCU, New Mexico, TCU, UTEP and even Louisville as options. The Big East on the other hand would have some much larger issues to deal with if there were to lose over 1/3 of it’s members. Many Big East fans wish that the conference would do something proactive and expand to 12 now to prepare for any departures, by adding schools such as UCF, Memphis and ECU.

But thus far, despite months of speculation, it’s all been hot air, without much more smoke then the announcements that the Big Ten and Pac-10 are considering expansion. The time-frames remain the same until we get some real smoke. And when the first announcements are made regarding extended invitations, it will be the real fire that starts the next round of massive conference realignment, similar to what we had in 2003.

Big Ten schools will be meeting in DC Sunday-Tuesday for the AAU meetings and are expected to push the expansion issue. Reports indicate that the conference will aim to add 3-5 new schools. Notre Dame remains the top option. But the Big Ten is poised to include 2-4 other schools. East coast schools Rutgers and Syracuse remain top options after Notre Dame, along with Missouri and Pitt. Nebraska remains a potential target candidate as well, but likely only if Notre Dame is out of the mix.

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick says the possible expansion of the Big Ten could create changes in major college football that force the Fighting Irish to give up their football independence.

The Big Ten and Pac-10 have both said they are exploring the possibility of adding schools.

Swarbrick says that looming realignment changes could be “relatively small … or they could be seismic.”

While Notre Dame prefers to remain independent in football, Swarbrick says, he and university president Rev. John Jenkins will evaluate whatever changes occur and assess how they effect the Fighting Irish.

Swarbrick told reporters Tuesday morning: “You can each come up with a scenario that would force our hand.”

The obvious move would be for Notre Dame to join the Big Ten, which would boost the conferences coverage of the BTN in markets such as New York. It is believed that Notre Dame would prefer joining the Big Ten if there were other Big East schools involved, such as Syracuse and Rutgers from the northeast. It does seem unlikely that Notre Dame would join the Big East for football, especially if they were to lose a Rutgers and/or Syracuse. But the school could probably negotiate their own deal with the Big East and maintain their current NBC TV contract.

Big Ten officials have hired a research firm to assist in targeting expansion candidates. Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez says the number on the list is approximately 15 and that Texas is not included as a recommendation. That’s good news for admins and fans of schools hoping to be in the mix as Texas would seem like tough competition for that 12th spot in the Big Ten. However, Alvarez also states that “I think it could be one (school) or I think it could be multiple”. This comes a day after Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe made some comments to help keep the Big 12 members positive and unified.

Some key points by Alvarez:
1) The Big Ten could expand by 1 school or more (likely a total of 12, 14 or 16 teams)
2) Texas was not on the initial recommendation list
3) He expects Notre Dame to be out of the mix as they hope to remain independent.

Should the Big Ten chose to expand to 14 or 16, it could be a crushing blow to both the Big East and Big 12. Both conferences have schools that are considered to be potential candidates for the Big Ten. The Big East candidates could include Rutgers, Syracuse or Pitt, which seem to top most peoples lists in the 12 team scenario. Even UConn has to be included if indeed expansion ever did grow to 16 with 5 new schools. Missouri is the Big 12 school most likely to lobby for a spot in the Big Ten. But others such as Nebraska or Kansas could be targets in virtually any of the 13 to 16 team scenarios. Big 12 members Colorado is thought to be the top target by the Pac-10 should they decide to extend an invite.

As expected, the Big Ten reportedly has had preliminary talks with Texas about joining, as per the Lawrence Journal World & News. We’ve long known they would at least reach out to Texas and see if both parties are a mutual fit. With a TV network already generating over $20 million dollars per school, adding Texas would just increase that figure. Notre Dame is the only other “homerun” option for the Big Ten, followed by adding a NY area school such as Rutgers or Syracuse to add that lucrative television market.

The report of Big Ten/Texas talks comes just days after the Pac-10 announced it would consider expansion as part of it’s own TV negotiations next year. While Colorado & Utah seem like the most logical fits for the Pac-10+2, it’s also Texas that would be the only true expansion smash. In a radio interview on KJR-AM Seattle, I did mention that if you’re the Pac-10 and expanding, you at least need to ask the prettiest girl to goto the prom first and then ask others once she turns you down. And I should be shot for making such a metaphor.

In all likelihood, Texas is now in a very interesting position where one thing is clear: they will improve their TV revenue. There could exist a future invite from the Big Ten and access to the Big Ten Network revenue. Texas could also consider joining the Pac-10 and spur the launch of a Pac-10 TV network that would include all the Texas, California, Arizona, Washington and Oregon markets, along with those in other nearby markets. The question is would the Pac-10 revenue be able to equal that of the Big Ten?

But the best position for Texas might simply to do nothing. This interest from 2 other conferences could assist them in creating their own Texas-based television network in which they would receive virtually all the revenue. While it might not come close to the BTN or a Pac-10 Network, they’d be able to keep the revenue to themselves and not split it with 11 other conference members. In the end, you’d think that if Texas could make the same (or more) money and stay with the more regional Big 12 members, it would be their top choice.

Update from Big Ten AD Delaney: no talks have happened