As has been expected since Boise St. opted to remain in the Mountain West, San Diego St. will do the same. Once Boise St. left, the Big East plan for a western expansion was put to rest. The Mountain West will now have 12 football members with 11 as all-sports members. The conference is expected to sponsor a conference championship game as well.

For the Big East, the membership is now down to 10 football members once Louisville, Rutgers, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are all officially out. Navy is expected to join in 2015 as the 11th member. The conference has been rumored to have possible interest in expanding with further football or all-sports schools (once the Catholic 7 leave) such as Tulsa and UMass.

The Big West is also out a member as the conference was expected to add Boise St. and San Diego St.

The move back to the Mountain West for Boise St. has been aided by the recent conference television renegotiations due to the folding of the conferences own network.

The Mountain West is currently considering other expansion ideas, considering with San Diego St. and UTEP as well as SMU, Houston and BYU. With the Big East falling apart, Houston and SMU might find the Mountain West as a comfortable option.

Boise St. hasn’t been one of those programs that seems overly focused on making big bucks as their sole motivation. That’s not exactly the case for some of the other schools in conferences above the Mountain West. But for Boise St., it’s always been about showing that they belong. When they sneak into a BCS bowl, they put on a show and stress that same message through player and coach interviews. Even better, they believe what they are saying.

The move to the Big East was about getting that opportunity every year just by winning their conference. It was a good move with the Big East BCS AQ in play…a great move. Because it meant if they win the conference, which they expect to do each year, they would get into the BCS. And due to location, it makes them more appealing to other bowls, so they aren’t just a school to plug into the Orange bowl each year like the usual Big East winner is. The Fiesta might actually WANT Boise St some years!

But for Boise St., the future seems to hinge on the SPECIFICS of the proposed BCS +1 setup.

If Boise St. is a  top 4 “ranked” schools using some system AND even if  to be eligible, a school HAS to be a conference champion, Boise St. will likely, in 8 out of 10 years of going undefeated, make the “playoffs”. They know how it works: if you are not in the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 or Pac-12 or even ACC to an extent, if you lose 1 game, you are OUT of the BCS at-large running right now. But with a 4 school playoff, they don’t have to compete to be in the #1 or #2 spot for a title shot, they just need to win their conference and be ranked in the Top 4 to have a chance. Go undefeated, and that will happen most years.

But if Boise St. remains in the MWC…

If they win most years, they are in the playoffs…with a chance to win the championship by winning two games. A Boise St. program in the Big East (if they still had the 5 BCS games), would almost never be in a position to play for a title…since the Big East is so weakened now, it’s not likely that they would be in the 1 or 2 spot, even if undefeated, over (2) 1 loss schools like the SEC and Big Ten champions.

But in the MWC, they can win the conference, make the playoffs, play regional schools, cut their overall travel budget for athletics, keep the profits rather than having to invest them into travel for their non-football sports (Big Sky is only conference that would cut travel costs more than MWC would).
Join the Big East, and the school will get more TV money. Period. The MWC is not the caliber of  conference it was with Boise St., TCU BYU and Utah now gone. Nevada has been a strong program of late and a nice addition. But them, teamed with Hawaii, Fresno St., Utah St. and SanJose St. just isn’t a power conference that will generate the type of television revenue that the Big East can, even with the additions of the Bay Area market, and bringing back the Salt Lake City market..The kicker is TV money.

But does that matter to Boise St. as much as a chance to winning a title?

Maybe not, which goes against so much of the current trends.

But that might just be the case with Boise St., hence them even considering the MWC at a time when they know the Big East TV contract will be better than the MWC.

Because in the end, Boise St. might be able to generate more revenue by making it to the playoffs or even winning title(s) over the years.

And if that happens, Boise St. could parlay that success (if they can achieve it) into their own Tier 3 TV contract. If they could negotiate 1-2 games a year on their own with say, ESPN, that would be a huge get for them. Just look at the BYU money as an independent. Imagine a National Champion Boise St. team….think they could work out a good TV deal for 1-2 games a year? I do, if the MWC permits it.

But it’s worth it to the MWC, since all the other Boise St. games would be under the MWC package, increasing the television contract value. That’s just how it works. Look at the Pac-10. Even years when USC was the only dominant force, the Pac-10 still had a large TV presence and value. The MWC might never be at the same level as the Pac-12, but they can improve their annual revenue.

So that’s where we are at. The MWC sits at 10 schools with spots waiting for Boise St. and San Diego St. If Boise St. opts to return, it seems safe to assume San Diego St. would follow.

For the Mountain West, it’s a given: if Boise St. and San Diego St. need help from the Mountain West to pay the exit fees from the Big East, do it. It’s $15 million dollars in one year ($5 million for Boise St., $10 million for SDSU) that will help make them hundreds of millions in the future. Dont’ want to spend the money to bail out SDSU? Fine, try to get CUSA to permit UTEP to swing over to the MWC as #12, freeing up another spot in CUSA for an MTSU, FAU, ODU, App St., UMass pair to get to 14.

The MWC is a nice conference and bounced back from the defections. But Wyoming, Colorado St., Fresno St., Nevada, etc aren’t going to drive future MWC TV contracts. Boise St. will. So whatever the MWC needs to do to convince Boise St. to change their mind, just do it.

The move will bring the Mountain West total membership to 9 all-sports members and 10 for football. While warm bodies for the MWC has been a priority, they have the luxury of also adding the Salt Lake City market and the Bay Area to help boost it’s television contract value. The Mountain West and CUSA are still expected to partner up, despite a full merger being shelved. The plan will likely involve the two conferences forming a football alliance where they negotiate a united television deal and arrange for some sort of championship game.

If the Mountain West were to add 2 more schools and grow to 12, combined with the expected growth of CUSA to 12, the alliance could hold two championship games with the winners meeting in a bowl game.

CUSA will be adding UTSA as well as likely North Texas and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech will likely be the 12th CUSA member unless Charlotte can get more support for it’s inclusion. Old Dominion is also keeping an eye on things in the event that they opt to upgrade to FBS.

The losses of Utah St. and San Jose St. from the WAC will put the final nail in them as a football conference.

With Utah St., San Jose St., UTSA and potentially Louisiana Tech leaving, the WAC will be left with only New Mexico St., Idaho and Texas St.

Texas St. will be pushing the Sun Belt hard for inclusion to replace the losses of North Texas and UTSA.

New Mexico St. will also likely petition the Sun Belt so that they are not left out. But the Sun Belt might have more appealing options such as Appalachian St., Charlotte and Georgia Southern. Even ODU might make itself available if they feel desperate enough. And maybe that would be the right call, since CUSA and the Sun Belt will be fairly locked into their new memberships and the MAC, already at 13 would remain the only FBS option.

For Idaho, it’s a tough a time as ever. Texas St. has the advantage of being in a close proximity to the other Sun Belt members, in comparison. Idaho and even NMSU remain far away with little value to the Sun Belt. It would not be shocking to see NMSU and Idaho seek even football-only Sun Belt membership with limited revenue in return to both schools as a means to secure a football home.

And they did.

Conference USA will add UTSA in 2013 as their first replacement following the departure of Memphis, UCF, Houston and SMU, per reports. The move makes sense as it gives CUSA even more presence in Texas, where with the departures of Houston and SMU, only Rice and UTEP remain.

While UTSA might be the first school we know will be joining CUSA, they likely won’t be the last.

North Texas is also expected to join CUSA in 2013. North Texas is the logical replacement for SMU, which was the lone Dallas market CUSA member.  In adding North Texas, CUSA hopes to remain relevant in Dallas.

Next up, Florida International.

Florida International has long been considered a top candidate with North Texas for CUSA. With the departure of UCF, CUSA no longer has a Florida presence. FIU will now serve as the lone  Florida representative.

And CUSA might not be done. Louisiana Tech as well as Charlotte are still being considered for CUSA expansion.

And now it gets tricky.

What does CUSA expansion means to any Mountain West/CUSA football alliance?

CUSA lost 4 members but was considering a full merger or alliance with the Mountain West. Most designs of an alliance called for expansion by 4 total schools, 2 in CUSA and 2 in the Mountain West. This would then give CUSA (10) members and the Mountain West (10) members. The 10 school conferences would then play a 9 came schedule to determine their champion. Via an expected waiver exception, the MWC and CUSA would likely have proposed that they be permitted to have their 10 school conference champions play each other in an Inter-Conference championship. Since almost all the other FBS conferences get to benefit with an extra game for themselves, the two conferences hoped to share in that benefit by having 1 of their conference members advance for a single extra game.

But if CUSA is at 12 schools, then it means that CUSA would have enough members for it’s own championship game, and too many for any championship type game with the Mountain West (for a conference to have a championship game, it’s members must have played all schools in it’s division…so if CUSA were a division and MWC another, there just simply aren’t enough games in a year for all CUSA members to play each other).

And then there is the UTEP issue.

Just this week, UTEP coach Mike Price stated on SiriusXM, that UTEP was moving to the MWC to play their old traditional WAC rivals that now encompass the MWC. What Price was referring to was a long thought theory that if there were a CUSA/MWC alliance or even full-merger, that it would make the most sense to have currently isolated UTEP move to the Mountain West, where it would be closer to it’s regional rivals like New Mexico.

The Mountain West would then add Utah St. as it’s #10 to join UTEP, while CUSA would free up a spot to add (3) total schools to get to (10) on their side and enable a more flexible football alliance. CUSA was expected to bring in North Texas, FIU and UTSA, but originally it seemed that for all 3 to join, UTEP would need to make the move west.

And now that doesn’t seem to the the case.

CUSA seems now set on a path to expand to 11 schools with UTSA, North Texas and Florida International. A final spot will likely go to Louisiana Tech, who have long sought CUSA membership. But that spot likely only goes to LA Tech because neither Charlotte nor Appalachian St. are prepared at this time to upgrade to FBS football.

As for the Mountain West, even if an alliance exists, it appears they will be at 10 members with only Utah St. and San Jose St. expected to join. Both a solid additions from the television negotiations standpoint, as the conference will now be able to add Salt Lake City and the Bay Area as part of their conference home.

As we’ve seen thus far with Conference USA and the Mountain West, nothing in final until the papers are signed. So there could be even more radical changes as soon as next week. Until then…

At first, there was a bold statement about the two conferences formally deciding to work together to form some sort of conference alliance or merger. And the idea made sense: since both conferences have and are losing members (CUSA losing UCF, Houston, SMU and Memphis, while the MWC is losing TCU, Boise St. and Dan Diego State. The MWC also just lost Utah and BYU this past season), they were opting to work together.

In combining the 8 remaining CUSA members and the 7 MWC all-sports members along with an 8th football only member, Hawaii, the goal was for the 2 conferences to broaden their national appeal by creating some form of coast to coast conference, to maximize their television revenue potential.

This first step was simply an agreement to work together to explore the best possible options. And there were many options on the table right away.

At the top of the list, was to form a football-only alliance. This alliance would be formed to fulfill the most basic goal: to create a single entity to negotiate a better television deal for the total of 16 members. As part of that simple alliance plan, there were additional options whereby the two separate conferences would expand to add members to replace their departing ones within their general regional footprint, creating an even larger football alliance. The most likely scenario from day one was for CUSA to add FIU to replace the lost Florida market and to add North Texas to replace the loss of SMU in the Dallas market. The Mountain West conference would then likely add two members they have given long looks at over the past two years: Utah St., to replace the lost Salt Lake City and Utah market, once the nucleus of the MWC with Utah and BYU, and to add San Jose St., to bring the Bay Area TV market into the MWC mix.

The then 20 schools, split 10 and 10 between CUSA and MWC, would operate as two separate conferences for all sports except football. For football, the conferences would likely have 9 game schedules, whereby all CUSA members would play football against each other, same as each MWC member. The football alliance would then petition the NCAA to allow each of these winners to participate in a Football Alliance extra game, similar to a traditional conference championship game, where the two division winners face off each year in conferences such as Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC.

And this leads to the key aspect of what is going on with the CUSA/MWC alliance or merger discussions: operating within the current NCAA guidelines.

As with any proposed business merger or alliance, both parties work together to explore every option to best serve it’s members, in this case the individual schools.

So in addition to an alliance, CUSA and MWC have indeed explored a full merger.

Their goal of a full merger would be to gain all the same advantages for new television negotiations, but they also hoped that at 16 to 24 members, specifically if expanding to 20-24 schools, that they would be able to keep their current system of having the 2 NCAA basketball tournament bids. They also hoped that in merging both conferences into something new or dissolving one to be absorbed into the other, that they would be permitted to retain all the NCAA basketball tournament shares both conferences have earned, and to fully collect all the exit fee money the two conferences will be getting with the departures of the 7 total schools (4 from CUSA, 3 from MWC).

The NCAA alerted the joint CUSA/MWC group that:

1) if they folded both conferences to form a new conference, both conferences would forfeit their NCAA basketball tournament shares
2) if they folded both conferences to form a new conference, both conferences would forfeit their incoming exit fees back to the departing schools
3) if they folded both conferences to form a new conference, the new conference would only get 1 NCAA basketball tournament bid
4) if they folded ONE conference into the other, the new conference would only get 1 NCAA basketball tournament bid
5) if they folded ONE conference into the other, ONE of the conferences would forfeit  their NCAA basketball tournament share revenue
6) if they folded ONE conference into the other, ONE of the conferences would forfeit their incoming exit fees to the departing schools

So once the NCAA made their stance clear with just these issues, the idea of a merger was pushed very far down the list of options.

Why? The large loss of revenue.

Even if CUSA and MWC went with the most conservative of the merger ideas, it would still mean that one conference would lose a large amount of money. Let’s assume it was the MWC folding into CUSA: the MWC would lose their tournament shares, including any earned by BYU and Utah that haven’t been paid out yet, as well as San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado St. who have all made the tourney in recent years. The MWC would also have to forfeit the exit fee money they are getting from TCU, San Diego St., and Boise St.

But even with the financial loss cut in half, it’s still a sizable revenue drop.

So at that point, yes, CUSA and the MWC continued to explore all merger options, looking to see if the long term benefit of a merger would outweigh the initial financial loss.

But the idea of a football-only alliance was still the top option.

So when CBSSports Brett McMurphy reported that the CUSA/MWC merger was dead, or “unlikely“, we was relaying the same sentiment that we’ve known since late March when the NCAA ruled on the issues pointed out above.

What this means, today, April 18th, is that nothing has changed.

CUSA and MWC are still exploring all options, trying to maximize their profitability.

And there are still a number of different options on the table:

1) A simple 16 team football alliance, where CUSA remains at 8, while MWC adds an 8th member for all non-football sports to offset Hawaii as a football-only.
2) An 18-20 school alliance, where CUSA adds new members such as FIU and North Texas while the MWC adds Utah St. and San Jose St.

#2 is the most likely scenario

3) There are other options where CUSA could add FIU, North Texas and UTSA, where UTEP leaves for the MWC to be joined with Utah St.

In any of the 3 scenarios, the key is still for the NCAA to permit the 8-10 school conference winners to compete in a game similar to the traditional conference championship games.

4) CUSA could expand to 12, with two (6) school divisions (candidates for the 4 spots would include FIU, FAU, Charlotte, Appalachian St., MTSU, LA Tech, UTSA and North Texas),
while the MWC expands to 12 with the additions of schools such as Utah St., San Jose St., UTEP, North Texas, UTSA, New Mexico St., and perhaps even Idaho.

For #4, CUSA and MWC would establish a joint television deal for all 24 members as a single business entity, while operating as 2 separate conferences by NCAA statues.

As a result, they would sponsor the first even “Championship Semi-Finals” by their business entity standards, while these games would actually only be traditional conference championship games by the NCAA standards. The winners of both “semi-final” games would then face off in a traditional bowl game, featuring CUSA #1 vs MWC #1. This would be similar to the old Liberty Bowl which featured CUSA #1 vs MWC #1 in the only bowl featuring two conference winners.

The key here is that what the CUSA/MWC group decides to do is dependent on what they can do WITHIN the NCAA guidelines, while operating as a separate entity from solely a business perspective.

So no matter what you read elsewhere, remember, this is a semantics game. Yes, a merger is unlikely…it has been for over a month. But an alliance for football is still very much on the table. CUSA and MWC members will be meeting at the end of April to further discuss their plans, with a June announcement expected. Other additions are also expected to be announced in June as well, to ensure that any incoming schools have the time needed to join before the July deadline to be eligible for July 2013.

That said, it seems quite probable that FIU and North Texas will be joining CUSA, with Utah St. and San Jose St. joining the MWC, with an announcement before July 1st.

As it stands, the original plan (to dissolve both conferences and form something new) is off the table. What remains are two options:

1) Remain as 2 separate conferences with a football scheduling alliance
2) To eliminate one conference via a merger

Reasons for the change in plans?

Even at 16 schools, the conference would only get 1 post-season bid. This shouldn’t come as a shocker, since there have been 16 school conferences in the past, (2) 14 school BCS conferences, and only 1 bid for these conferences.

Tournament shares (basketball) are a bigger issue. If one or more conferences folded to form something new, all that tournament money would go to the schools…including departing ones like Boise St., SDSU, SMU, UCF, Memphis, Houston, rather than into the conference “pool”.

So how will things likely play out?

* CUSA and MWC will likely plan a scheduling alliance for football, rather than a full merger

* The scheduling alliance might still work to find a means to benefit both schools in the form of a cross-conference championship game. But with the BCS seemingly coming to an end in 2014, it’s unlikely there would be a real benefit.

* Mountain West expansion:
The MWC is down to 7 all-sport members, with Hawaii as the 8th football only. It is likely that Utah St. and San Jose St. are added to the MWC for a total of 9 all-sport members with 10 for football. Air Force is still a flight risk to join the Big East now that Navy will be joining (2015), which could bring the numbers to 8/9…which would still work. The MWC will likely remain at 9/10 to ensure they have room for Boise St. and San Diego St. should the Big East move fail to work long term.

* CUSA expansion:
CUSA, at 8 all-sports members, has more flexibility. They could opt to remain at 8 for all-sports, with the security of the MWC football scheduling alliance. At 8 members, it’s less mouths to feed of the split television and tournament revenue. Should CUSA expand, likely candidates would be North Texas (to replace the lost Dallas market), LA Tech (an established if not flashy option), UTSA (recent football addition and San Antonio market), FIU or FAU (to replace the loss of the lone Florida school, UCF), Appalachian St. (FCS upgrade candidate), and Charlotte (who plans on upgrading to FBS football).

As for UTEP, it had appeared that under a merger, UTEP would move to the MWC division, as it’s members reside closer to the school. It’s unlikely to happen now unless CUSA feels that the spot would be better used for another program in the immediate footprint and only if UTEP wanted to make the move.

The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

With Memphis no longer in the mix as they head for the Big East, Conference USA and the Mountain West can now progress with their merger plans. As there appear to be no more pending departures, the two conferences, hoping to find some stability in the form of an alliance or merger, can finally do so without the threat of another school leaving. That is of course assuming that Air Force does indeed opt to remain in the Mountain West and does not join Navy (as well as SDSU and Boise St.) in the Big East for football.

Later this week, the CUSA Board of Directors have planned to meet to discuss all aspects of a Mountain West merger.

On the table include what is the front-runner idea at this point: an all-sports merger. The merger would combine 15 schools for all-sports with Hawaii for football only.

Likely divisions would include:
West: Hawaii*, Fresno St., Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St., Wyoming
East: UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Tulane, USM, UAB, ECU, Marshall

Another option remains to merge for a football alliance, but that would mean that CUSA would need to remain at 8 with no new invites and the Mountain West conference would likely need to add Hawaii as an all-sports member or invite Utah St. as the 8th all-sports member to remain a stable Division 1 conference. Such a situation would leave (2) 8 school conferences for non-football sports and 17 schools for football. This is a less likely scenario to happen versus a full, all-sports merge.

Many will look at the distance between schools and the schools comprising the merged conference and question the move. But it’s the strength in numbers that remain the primary driver behind the merge. A single voice will do more to keep the member schools in the conversations with the current BCS conferences, while as two separate entities, the political power will be minimal. With 16 schools from 13 states, the conference will at least have political power behind it, since it will not have the best media markets to help boost the television revenue.

For a glimpse as to what this conference would look like, here’s a map:

View CollegeSportsInfo.com CUSA / Mountain West Conference in a larger map
 

The Mountain West was set to bring in Utah St. and San Jose St. to replace the lost two schools, but has shelved that plan while it discusses it’s options with CUSA. On the table is an all-sports merger of the 16 all-sports schools, with MWC commissioner Thompson taking over as the commissioner, with CUSA commissioner Banowsky stepping down. The move would include a 17th football school, Hawaii, as a football-only member.

A proposed divisional alignment would look like:

West:
Fresno St.
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
Air Force
Colorado St.
Wyoming
* Hawaii
UTEP

East:
Rice
Tulsa
Memphis
Tulane
USM
UAB
Marshall
ECU