The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

The move gives the SEC exactly what it needs: a new region with new markets to help improve it’s already massive television package. With Texas A&M joining and the SEC already a dominant force in it’s current footprint, there were few schools that could give the SEC some of the financial benefits they wanted…despite Missouri being just a so-so sports product compared to some more powerful programs like say, Florida St. In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a strong toehold in Big 12 country to go with Texas A&M with the SEC now expanding as far west as the market of Kansas City.

But the real benefit might be in regards to the creeping up on the Big Ten.

In adding Missouri, the SEC now has a school right in the Big Ten backyard…and sharing what had been very much a Big Ten city in St. Louis, thanks to all the nearby Illinois graduates as well as all the Big Ten alumni living in St. Louis.

The SEC can now go forward with an SEC Network, knowing that they will have instant success in new markets like Houston, Kansas City and St. Louis.

Missouri is expected to join the SEC next season.

But that might be a problem for the Big 12.

The Big 12 added West Virginia to replace Missouri. But due to a 27 month waiting period by the Big East, WVU will not be expected to join the Big 12 next season. A lawsuit by WVU vs. the Big East was greeted with a loawsuit by the Big East vs. WVU. So the Big 12 will likely be forced to participate at 9 members next season.

WVU to SEC Rumors:

If reports were confirmed, it appears that the new SEC membership of 13 could be adding it’s 14th member earlier than expected. If debunked, we’ll still be playing the waiting game as based on comments from the SEC last night with the TAMU addition, the conference seems content at 13.

Missouri had been the primary target by the SEC for the #14 spot. However, with the Big 12 rediscovery of “unity” (seems to be an annual event), Missouri has had more pressure to remain in the Big 12. Additional legal threats by Big 12 schools towards the SEC have caused Missouri to be a difficult expansion target for the SEC since the onset.

With the SEC seeming to have a “gentleman’s agreement” in which it would not add a 14th school coming from an existing SEC state…and with the ACC’s unity via expansion and an increased exit fee…the SEC candidate pool became much smaller. Powers like Florida St. and Virginia Tech were off the radar, as were Clemson. Oklahoma was a top target last year, but their requirement of Oklahoma St. coming with them makes them a less attractive option as it means expanding to 15 or 16. And Big 12 schools in general remained longshots due to the threat of lawsuits. That left on schools like WVU, Rutgers, Cincinnati in the candidate pool…with WVU seemingly the pick.

The addition of WVU to the SEC would leave the Big East with 6 members.

Additional rumors today claim that Louisville has an invitation to the Big 12, which they would likely accept.

If the Big East were to lose both schools, the conference would be down to 5 members, with Uconn lobbying hard to join the ACC.

The ACC meanwhile, has been working on adding Notre Dame with Uconn likely in tow. There is still a chance though that if Notre Dame officially declines the ACC, that Rutgers and Uconn could be brought in instead.

Such a worst-case-scenario would leave the Big East with only 3 members: USF, Cincinnati and TCU.

TCU is expected to remain in the Mountain West in the event that the Big East lost any of the 7 current members.

The most likely path in this event would be the Big East working with CUSA for that conference to add Cincinnati and USF.

And with the proposed CUSA/MWC football merger in the works, the 14 school CUSA and then 11 school MWC would work as a single football entity.

The ACC could as soon as today be announcing the additions of Syracuse and Pitt as the 13th and 14th members. (UPDATE: they did an hour after writing this)

But what happens next for the ACC is still a mystery.

The ACC is poised to also add UConn and Rutgers to expand to 16. This is the move that always seemed the most logical from a business perspective. The ACC sits in the backyard of the SEC for football…and the SEC has been a rich and powerful neighbor. The only way for the ACC to keep up is to claim new territory as exclusively theirs. The addition of Boston College did give them some access into New England. But a single school doesn’t do much. This was still Big East country were were talking about, with Boston College just an outsider in their yard.

But if Syracuse, Pitt, Uconn and Rutgers were all to join the ACC, there is no argument: the ACC would be the eastern seaboard conference in regards to influence and cache.

The addition alone of Pitt and Syracuse will be a big help in this goal. Adding Uconn and Rutgers would lock it up. With all four schools included, there would be no debate: the northeast would be ACC country, fitting for a conference named the “Atlantic Coast Conference”. You’d see a conference with the best D1 FBS programs from MA, CT, NY, NJ, MD, VA and NC in a conference together. The other states and markets? You’d have Pittsburgh, a school in the heart of Big Ten country due to the Penn St. proximity. In South Carolina and Georgia, you have your 2 school, ACC/SEC split. And in Florida, the ACC celebrates having both Florida St. and Miami while the SEC has a single representative, powerhouse Florida.

The basketball benefits of adding all 4 Big East schools are easy to see. Syracuse ad Uconn are national championship winners, Pitt a national power, and Rutgers considered by some to be a sleeping giant.

But football is what drives expansion and in that regard, it’s hard to look at the two likely newest additions or potential future additions like UConn and Rutgers and think “home run”. With football powers like Nebraska on the move last year, and brands like Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma on the brink as well, the ACC moves on the surface might seem lackluster. But it’s the long term stability of the conference that benefits. What started with last weeks ACC exit fee boost, a move to keep the ACC schools together, expansion is the next logical step.

And now, at the time of this article, it appear that Syracuse and Pitt are all but officially the ACC’s next members.

But for now, it’s only those two schools.

Expansion to 16 with Rutgers and Uconn isn’t entirely in the plans yet.

And that is because the ACC is likely to wait for Notre Dame and Texas to officially notify the conference they are not interested in joining as all-sports members.

Those two schools would make the ACC an even bigger power. And there is an argument that even adding them for non-football sports would be a benefit.

Should they pass, the ACC would likely wait to see what happens with the other conferences, such as the Pac-12 and SEC, before deciding on a path to 16 with Rutgers and UConn.

What’s Next?

Meanwhile, the Big 12 situation hasn’t gone away.

Oklahoma still seems poised to pursue the Pac-12, a move that would seem to bring along Oklahoma St.

If adding Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., the Pac-12 would also want to add Texas (a move that would bring Texas Tech along).

But Texas has other plans:
* Consider the ACC in some capacity
* Rebuild the Big 12 (would be down to 7 members without OU/OSU) by likely targeting Big East schools such as Louisville and WVU).
* Move to the Pac-16

But it’s the ACC moves combined with the potential Big 12 openings that are making things the most interesting:

The Big East is about to drop to 7 members. The Big 12 to 7 members if Oklahoma/OSU leave and Texas stays. Wouldn’t the easiest solution be to just merge the two under the Big 12 banner? Perhaps.

The proposed lineup could look like…

Big 12 – East: Uconn, Rutgers, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Missouri, USF
Big 12 – West: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St.,  Iowa St

Seems easy, right?

No.

It would require true LHN greed for Texas to want to be associated with this group over a more prestigious Pac-16 of ACC.

It would require WVU, Missouri, Louisville, etc to pass on an SEC #14 invitations.

And as we have seem, it’s every man for themselves. Expecting a school to pass on stability for a strange union is asking a lot.

So one potential path we could see in the coming weeks:

* SEC to 14 with Texas A&M and a 14th school (WVU or Missouri)
* ACC to 14 or 16 with Pitt & Syracuse (perhaps UConn and Rutgers)
* Pac-16 with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.
* Big East remnants (4 or 5 schools) leave to join the Big 12 remaining schools (4 or 5 schools) in some capacity.

The last option there is a result of the ACC developments.

For the past few weeks, it appeared that the Big East was poised to benefit if the Big 12 folded. The conference of 9 football schools could have had the power to add 3-5 remaining schools, left out of the SEC and Pac-12. Instead, due to the expected Pitt and Syracuse defections, it means the Big East is weakened with only  7 schools. If Uconn and Rutgers leave, it’s only 5 members. If WVU joined the SEC, it’s only 4 members. At some point, the Big East will need to decide if it is best to just encourage the football schools (USF, Cincinnati, TCU, Louisville, WVU) to leave or bring in all the Big 12 schools. But the Big East schools might find more solace in joining a non-hybrid conference like the Big 12 .

So what could the Big 12 look like?
Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor, TCU, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF

It’s going to be an interesting day, and interesting week.

As part of the Texas A&M exit and proposed SEC entrance, the SEC required a number of legal steps that we are not used to seeing so publicly in conference realignment. The SEC, both legally and from a PR standpoint has not wanted to be the reason for the destruction of another conference. And that makes sense. So they requested written notification that once Texas A&M was no longer in the Big 12, that is the SEC invited them, the conference would be free from any litigation. The Big 12′s response: no problem. So not only did the Big 12 give consent, it’s written, signed and available for everyone to read.

The Baylor situation in a nutshell:

* All Big 12 schools signed off on freeing the SEC of any liability to the Big 12

* Balls started rolling and all of a sudden, the concept of adding a new 10th school like BYU, or adding (3) Big East schools to get to 12 (Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers) was suddenly replaced with the primary option that Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. would leave for the Pac-12…with Texas and Texas Tech likely following. Kansas, Kansas St., and Iowa St. would likely join the Big East with Missouri, assuming Missouri wasn’t also invited to the SEC.

* Baylor realizes they are the lone school left out of a BCS conference

But due to the  signed letters and timeline in place, it seems that the potential Baylor lawsuit would be tough to win. The legal threat would be against the SEC, as it is a private organization, and not Texas A&M. The “cause” of the potential lawsuit would be that Texas A&M joining the SEC would cause great harm to Baylor…not the Big 12, since all the other schools signed off…but specifically to Baylor alone.

But in the loss of a single school, the Big 12 would still be in a position of strength, compared to saw the WAC last summer who lost all but 5 football schools, falling below the NCAA membership minimums. The Big East was in a similar situation in 2003 when they lost 3 members to the ACC, bringing their totals to 5 members (they replaced them with Louisville, Cincinnati, and USF).

But there lies the problem with the Baylor mentality.

Texas A&M first left the Big 12, then were invited to the SEC as a to-be independent. But that move alone is a single school. The Big 12 remains at 9 members and has multiple options. The Big 12, at 9 members, can bring in a school such as BYU as a Texas A&M replacement to remain at 10. They could chose some other school for #10. And they also discussed the idea of bringing in (3) schools such as Louisville, Rutgers, and Pitt to grow back to 12. So the idea that the lone departure of Texas A&M would cost Baylor money is a stretch. But then you read between the lines…and the headlines coming out of Oklahoma.

* Oklahoma has made it public that they are focused on joining the Pac-12, leaving the Big 12, rather than pursuing a single TAMU replacement or a Big East raid to get to 12 members.

* And as Oklahoma goes, so does Oklahoma St.

* If those two schools leave, Texas would likely feel the pressure to remain on pace economically, and follow the two Oklahoma schools.

* And as Texas goes, so does Texas Tech

So now all of a sudden, instead of needing a single school, the Big 12 would be down to 5 total members.

It’s at THIS time that a Baylor lawsuit MIGHT have some merit. Because at this point, 4 more schools would have left and truly harmed the Big 12.

BUT…it STILL wouldn’t be a lock for a “winnable” lawsuit.

Not, when there is precedent set by conferences such as the Big East in the BCS that simply needed to add 3 members to be back in business. The Big East is still a BCS member today, even with the replacement schools they brought in all coming from non-BCS conferences (CUSA) and from FCS (UConn).

But then we come to the next round of developments: the Big East.

The Big East last summer, had discussions with some of the remaining Big 12 schools (Kansas, Kansas St., Missouri, Iowa St) and was set to invite them if the 2010 version of the Pac-16 had happened. Those same conversations are being had now as all Big 12 schools consider sailing smoothly through the chaos. The Big East would again welcome Kansas, Kansas St., and Missouri becoming a 12 school football conference, 20 for all sports. Divisions proposed include four pods of 5 schools based on geography for basketball, 2 divisions for football.

Missouri is considered to be an option for the SEC #14 spot as well.

So if Missouri were part of the SEC, then the Big East would likely include Iowa St. as there #12 school for the same division/divisional pod that Missouri would have been in.

And now back to Baylor.

If Texas A&M leaves, it’s a minor hiccup.

If Oklahoma/Oklahoma St./Texas/Texas Tech leave is a large problem.

If Kansas/Kansas St./Missouri and Iowa St. leave, that is the destruction of the Big 12. And THAT is the move that would give Baylor more rights in regards to a lawsuit.

So reading between the lines:

A few assumptions we can make:

1) If the Big 12 schools all signed off on Texas A&M joining the SEC, then we can assume that Texas A&M and the Big 12 have come to some resolution in regards to exit fees. The figure that Nebraska and Colorado were expected to pay was close to $30 million. Both schools negotiated the price to $9.25 million.

2) But if the Texas A&M exit fee is favorable to Texas A&M, then the reason could very well be the expected departure of other Big 12 schools. Those schools would not want to be too rash in their demands if in the coming weeks they too opted to leave.

3) Iowa St. is a school that seemingly has almost as few options as Baylor. Kansas and Missouri have more options. Kansas St. to an extent has drawn interest from the Big East with those two schools. But only if Missouri joins the SEC and frees up a 12th spot for Iowa St. is Iowa St. likely to be a Big East option. So what does Baylor know that is 99-100% accurate that Baylor feels the need to threaten legal action while Iowa St. doesn’t?

And as for the Conference Realignment Dominoes…

* Next step will be that Texas A&M formally accepts the SEC invitation…and the SEC will hold off on #14.

* Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. will even more actively pursue the Pac-12 and likely be invited.

* Once Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. make it known to Texas that they will be leaving, Texas will likely step back from their LHN demands and show a willingness to fold their network into the Pac-12 TV model.

There had been rumors of Texas pursuing the ACC that were debunked by ACC commissioner John Swofford.

The other option for Texas, one with no public supporters, would be if Texas joined the Big East as a non-football member and went independent in football. The move would allow the Big East to potentially split from the basketball schools and include the Big 12 remnants:

West: * Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Missouri, Louisville
East: * Notre Dame, Uconn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati,  USF

* Should Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas and Texas Tech opt for the Pac-12, marking the potential end to the Big 12, the SEC would be more likely to invite Missouri as their #14 school.

* The Big East would then invite Kansas, Kansas St., and Iowa St. to form a 12 football / 20 all-sports conference.

* Baylor would join the Mountain West conference or CUSA

* Pac-16 a possibility with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St.

* Big 12 survival plans: If no Pac-16 defection, Big East raid of 2-3 schools a possibility

* Missouri as SEC #14 candidate would add 4th Big East team to Big 12 sights

* Pac-16 defections from Big 12 likely means end to Big 12 with Big East absorbing “leftovers”

* Can Big 12 “survive” by just absorbing all Big East football members (Big East split scenario)

When Texas A&M first made it public that they were interested in pursuing the SEC, the college sports world realized that what had been avoided last summer (utter chaos) could once again be within reach. In an article a few weeks ago titled “Potential SEC Expansion and the Conference Realignment Dominoes“, I addressed some of the possible scenarios that could play out.

As time progressed, it appeared that even if Texas A&M were to leave for the SEC (they have since announced they are planning to in fact leave the Big 12), that the Big 12 would keep their union of merry men together, a team of 9, that would simply “consider” adding a 10th school as a replacement. Seems fairly simple: you lose a school, and you replace that school and everyone lives happily ever after. Schools like BYU and TCU were considered high on the list, as was Houston (to replace the lost Texas A&M market), as well as schools outside the current footprint such as Pitt, Air Force, etc. Of course the “big get” options were Notre Dame and Arkansas, but neither school is expected to give the Big 12 much thought.

On the SEC side, it did appear that eventually, a 14th school might be an option. Various sources claim though that if the SEC were to add a 14th school, said school would likely have to come from a state NOT currently represented in the SEC. So ACC schools such as Florida St., Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami were CONSIDERED to be “off the list”. And with ACC solidarity by the 4 North Carolina schools, they seemed as if they were not options. And with some very public comments out of Virginia Tech, it appeared that school too would be taking itself off the SEC list.

Then you have schools like Missouri who also claimed little interest in the SEC (although we all assume that is not the case and instead it’s an effort by the school to avoid the embarrassment they suffered last year when publicly courting the Big Ten only to be passed over).

Seemingly, all of a sudden, it appeared the SEC was down to only a few options such as WVU, Louisville (seemingly a school in an SEC state that had less resistance from SEC members). Not exactly homeruns for the nations superior football conference.

Regardless, it still appeared that all would be well. The SEC would expand to 13 and maybe 14 at some point. The ACC would remain as is. The Big 12 would add a single replacement. Not exactly anything drastic.

But now that might all be changing.

Now, it appears that the seismic, drastic changes could actually still happen. And the result might be that mythical beast we’ve spoken about many times here before: the birth of the Super Conferences.

So here’s where we are now:

SEC:

* The SEC appears to be set on adding Texas A&M as it’s 13th member.
* The #14 options are still all out there. If things remain as they are now, then Missouri or WVU could be the options.
* Depending on what happens with the Big 12, that could change the SEC strategy.

In other words, the “gentlemen’s agreement” of not adding schools in current SEC states might be scrapped if there were seismic changes. So the move to 14 might actually become a move to 16 if other conferences make a push to 16 before the SEC does.

The SEC might be the conference that starts the mass movement, but they might actually be reactionary in growing beyond 13 if other conferences like the Pac-12 make bold moves.

Big 12:

All seemed well. BYU, TCU, Houston, Louisville, Pitt, Air Force and even perhaps SMU (they want in the Big 12…no, really?) were notable candidates for the #10 spot.

One has to feel for Virginia Tech presidential spokesman Larry Hincker. the school was initially mentioned as a potential candidate for the 14th SEC position almost a month ago. The schools response: No…No…did we mention No. In fact, unlike other schools who use the common “we’re happy in the XYZ Conference and plan to be here for years to come”, Hincker and VA Tech went even further by saying that they would “politely decline an SEC invitation”. That alone is going above and beyond many other schools potentially putting VA Tech in a hole. I mean really, how could  a school accept an invitation after such a strong stance.

The result, over the past few days there have been multiple articles stating that Virginia Tech is indeed a candidate for the SEC.

So what’s a fella to do?

Well, Larry Hincker decided it was time to drop the bomb, the “P” bomb.

His response to the recent articles:

“Total poppycock. How many times do we have to say it? If one of these rumor mongers, would be willing to cite their ‘multiple sources,’ it might lend some credence. Frankly, we’re tired of other people telling us what our future is.

“We are not interested. Nothing has changed. My president will not dignify wild speculation. Our last statement [from Aug. 12] still stands. Bottom line: this is not on our radar screen.”

Statement from Dr. Bernie Machen, Chair, Southeastern Conference Presidents and Chancellors:

“The SEC Presidents and Chancellors met today and reaffirmed our satisfaction with the present 12 institutional alignment. We recognize, however, that future conditions may make it advantageous to expand the number of institutions in the league. We discussed criteria and process associated with expansion. No action was taken with respect to any institution including Texas A&M.”

Think it’s going to awkward at the next Big 12 party when Texas A&M shows up?

What this means is simply that the SEC needs more time.

They need time to determine is Texas A&M is a worthwhile addition. If you recall from last summer, it was the Pac-10 that was to be perceived as the “bad guy”, changing the landscape with the proposed Pac-16. So adding TAMU and a 14th school would have been reactionary. If the SEC is going to change the game, they need to be smart about it.

The SEC ADS are planning to meet this week and the topic will be discussed as well.

The other large hold-up in a Texas A&M invite was the last of a defined (and worthy quality) 14th school. With the hesitations that some current SEC schools have over adding in-state rivals, it’s not as easy as cherry picking the top school available. It could mean settling for Missouri…a school passed over by the Big Ten last year, or Big East schools WVU or Louisville.

And as many have pointed out, the “no decision” today could be a tactic in which TAMU leaves the Big 12 first and the SEC invites them as an independent rather than as a member of the Big 12.

So here’s where we stand from the initial SEC talks:

This thing is moving pretty fast.

* TAMU will indeed get the invite and will accept with Monday as the expected announcement date.

* Contrary to reports that it might be a slower timeline for #14, it COULD be decided as soon as tonight with a school that the SEC publicly stated they were not interested in last year (more on that).

* There seems to be only a single source right now that is being used for virtually all of the “SEC to expand to 16″ talk…and the schools mentioned are TAMU followed by Florida St., Missouri and Clemson.

* BUT…the vote to permit TAMU MIGHT, and I stress MIGHT, be contingent on the SEC AGREEING BEFOREHAND that if certtain schools vote YES for TAMU, then NO OTHER schools from the current SEC member states will be considered for #14 (or 15 or 16 if indeed 16 school happened).

* The only in-state options that are not being met with resistance are Clemson and Louisville (South Carolina and Kentucky already in the SEC). Both would remain top options presumably with an expansion to 16. One school would be the #14 option assuming all top options passed (Florida St., VA Tech, Miami).

So…

* TAMU will be #13.

* As of this morning, the SEC and Missouri had not had any talks with Missouri officials adamant about that, including references to “egg on their face from last year” (lobbying the Big Ten for an invite).

* Florida St. does appear to be the desired #14 school and formal talks could be initiated. BUT, there is a potential problem as the informal straw vote in the SEC COULD be leaning towards a situation where the SEC schools vote “yes” for TAMU but ONLY, again, if it means NO new SEC schools from CURRENT SEC states.

* There is nothing to confirm about Oklahoma other than that they appear content remaining with Texas and the rest of the Big 12.

* The SEC MIGHT have an invitation for Missouri by the end of the day in which case Missouri would need to accept PRIOR to TAMU being officially invited/accepted. The rationale is that Missouri would push the footprint into Big Ten territory while giving what the SEC schools are rumored to want: no new SEC schools from current SEC states.

* If the SEC schools hold strong on the “No current SEC state members” stance, then it makes expansion to 16 unlikely unless a hail-mary happened like Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* Virginia Tech was/is a top target but it is assumed at this point, through various channels, that VA Tech would say NO.

* Despite the Florida St. rumors created by ESPN Dallas last week as the final member of SEC expansion to 14, it appears that even if extended an invite today, that Florida St. also MIGHT say no. Recent reports by FSU admins have been direct in saying there has been no contact, which is true. But they have also, like VA Tech, gone further with extended praise for the ACC.

So that’s where we’re at:

TAMU in for #13, still finalizing plans today for next step (14 or 16 members), if it’s 14 members total, Missouri is likely the school to beat.

As for the Big 12…

They have been working on scenarios of remaining at 9 or replacing TAMU with a new 10th school (Houston, BYU, Louisville, Air Force). If Missouri were to leave as well, then that likely changes from 0-1 new schools to 1-2 new schools. There would be more support for a BYU and Air Force combo in that case, but the media negotiations might force the Big 12 to go with a more spread approach like Houston and BYU.

With the Texas A&M to the SEC talks heating up there was enough to think about. But with the potential that the SEC would expand again a year later, to 14 schools by adding Florida St., well that turns a small wave into a tsunami.

Let’s start with the immediate effects of SEC expansion under the assumption that they were to add Texas A&M from the Big 12 and Florida St. from the ACC:

Big 12:

Sources have said that if Texas A&M does indeed leave for the 2012 season, that they will likely remain at 9 members for that year and consider their options afterwards. Yet other sources say that an A&M loss would be enough for the Big 12 to seek an immediate replacement. And yet others say that in addition to a replacement, there is the outside chance that they would bring in 3 schools to regain the ability to have a championship game.

The reality is that while losing a strong program like Texas A&M would be impacting, it’s Texas that runs the Big 12 show. And they’d still have their #2, Oklahoma, there as well. The financial hit would seemingly be limited with the loss of TAMU as long as those two schools remained and were happy. In essence, the Big 12, with the loss of TAMU, would be not much different that Notre Dame independence for football. Texas remains the clear big fish, gets it’s own network, but has the luxury of being in an all-sports conference. Just they are in a conference that they reap the largest proportion of the revenue.

Should Texas A&M leave and the Big 12 remain at 9 members, it would seem things wouldn’t need to change much. However, there is the opportunity to expand back to 10 members if they see fit.

Potential Expansion Candidates:

Houston: not the sexiest of picks for sure. But Houston would allow the Big 12 to have some presence in the Houston market, which is presently controlled by Texas A&M and even LSU…both of whom would be in the SEC. It is a safe assumption though that membership in the Big 12 would be an immediate boost to the Houston programs.

Louisville: would push the footprint further east, something that would make members such as Iowa St. and Missouri happy about, add a school with a committed athletics department (funding), a strong basketball program that Kansas would appreciate seeing in conference).

BYU: the school made a splash when the left the MWC for football independence. But the Big 12 would be likely a bigger financial gain for BYU if they joined. Basketball would get another boost, leaving the WCC for the Big 12. The Big 12 would gain some of the mountain region that was lost when Colorado left and gain the national support of the nation-large BYU fanbase.

Air Force: not a sexy pick, but a national following and would help replace the loss of the Colorado market. In the event of a 2 school expansion, would be a perfect bridge for BYU.

Others: TCU, SMU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise St., UTEP

All these others would seem very unlikely in the case of the Big 12 expanding by only 1 school

ACC:

Not exactly what the ACC brass expected to see happen.

When the initial “TAMU to SEC” talk happened a year ago, Virginia Tech was considered the top target for #14. It would give the SEC a push up north in their footprint in the process. But with the political pressure to get Virginia Tech into the ACC in the first place, it became clear that it would take a major coup to get the state of Virginia to allow them to leave UVA behind.

But if TAMU does join the SEC as #13, it is likely that a 14th school could be added. And with reports that Florida St. would be such a school, it leaves the ACC in a spot where they would need a 12th school in order to maintain their conference championship game.

Make no mistake: the Big 12, at ten members, is actually in less of a rush to expand than the ACC would be at 11. While the new ACC television contract is strong, the revenue generated from the championship game is necessary for them.

So if you’re the ACC, you likely look back to the region that can provide you with the most revenue: the northeast.

Sure, if a more attractive option existed in the south, it would be worth it. But even with the potential instability in the Big 12, it might be a stretch for the ACC, potentially losing a single school, to look all the way west to say, Kansas for a replacement. It makes much more immediate sense to look at the Big East pool of available schools.

Potential Expansion Candidates:

UConn: many felt that had UConn upgraded in football earlier, they would have been a target of the 2003 ACC expansion. Fast forward less than a decade and UConn continues to win national championships in basketball and just got off their first BCS appearance this past year for football. UConn would provide Boston College with a much need rival and provide the ACC even more access into New England…and their toes in the New York market via the UConn influence.

Syracuse: the upstate New York school was already approached by the ACC in 2003 and was set to join before Virginia legislators threatened to block any ACC expansion votes if Virginia Tech wasn’t involved. The political pressure lead to Miami joining and then followed by Virginia Tech. Boston College was ultimately selected over Syracuse for the final spot. But if looking to fill a single spot, Syracuse would get the nod over UConn due to their potential to deliver the New York market.

Rutgers: another NYC area school, Rutgers was on the Big Ten radar when the conference was considering all it’s options. Rutgers could have the potential to deliver all thouse NY/NJ TV sets, and serve as a geographic/market bridge to Boston College.

Pittsburgh: an urban school in a larger market. But it would be difficult to consider Pittsburgh when you have more potential for TV revenue in the above three schools.

WVU: a logical fit with nearby Virginia Tech and Maryland, strong historical football program, but little else in the sense of present day economics. A sad reality in the conference realignment landscape, for sure.

Louisville: a dedicated athletics program but perhaps a stretch when discussing a single ACC spot.

Big East:

With the addition of TCU as the 9th member, all of the talk of late has been about who the 10th member would be: Villanova, UCF, Houston, Memphis or even a stretch like BYU. The other focus has been on the “will they, won’t they” split talk in regards to the football and non-football schools. First it appeared Villanova would join for #10, then nothing happened. Then Houston seemed to gain some support over UCF, adn then Army and Navy were brought up again…as they are every few years. Then the split talk happened again with the potential to leave the non-football schools behind and add 3 new all-sports members (such as Houston, UCF, Temple).

And now this.

It seems like destiny for the Big East…and not a good one. You shuffle your feet long enough, something bad happens. And if the ACC were to lose Florida St. to the SEC, then the Big East would almost certainly lose a school to the ACC.

How they would proceed under this hypothetical situation is as big a mystery as what their leadership is ever thinking about.

Would the loss of a school like Syracuse, Uconn or Rutgers put a final halt to any “split agenda”? Or would it be the final straw to push forward a split?

Regardless, the Big East would have to add at least one school to get back to 9. A move to 10 would seem likely as it’s been their plan thus far. We must remember that while losing a school would hurt, there are no “Miami” type of football programs in the Big East that would seem like a near fatal blow…as the Miami and Virginia Tech defections seemed to be.

Potential Expansion Candidates:

There isn’t much need for detail with each of these as the Big East has already looked at or is presently considering each for the 10th spot. So even if it were for the 9th and 10th spot, we know only the top two “move on” to the BCS:

Villanova: one day they are moving up, the next they aren’t. But until they are passed over officially, they remain on the list.

UCF: considered by many as the logical for for #10, UCF would provide further access into Florida and offer the Orlando market. If Florida St. were to join the SEC, there might be even more incentive for the Big East to add them as they would then have (2) Florida schools while the ACC only had 1.

Houston: with the addition of TCU and the Dallas/Ft. Worth market potential, Houston became much more attractive. While Houston might not currently offer the level of market penetration the Big East would want, that could change with an “upgrade” to the Big East, a BCS conference.

Memphis: still considered a longshot according to Big East admins. Would only be an option if 12 schools were the goal.

Temple: if Villanova is not the Philadelphia option, perhaps Temple would be since they would be willing to join for football-only, something UCF and Houston have publicly stated they would not do.

At this point in the falling of the dominoes, we find ourselves already where we would be if the Big East were to expand to 10 and if there weren’t any expansion in conferences above them. So CUSA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC and WAC can wait for now.

Of course, the bigger issue to consider is again with the top conferences:

If the SEC is expanding to 14, will they set the tone for other conferences to follow?

Would the Big Ten reconsider expansion to 14 or 16 with the likes of Missouri, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn, Kansas, Oklahoma, etc?

Would the ACC look to keep up with the SEC after potentially losing their top football program by doing something bold, like absorbing the top Big East programs and expanding to 14 or 16 as well…from the pool of UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU?

Would the Pac-12 revisit their 16 school plan, albeit without Texas A&M and seemingly without Texas (due to the LHN)?

If the SEC does indeed expand to 14, it could start a new trend and lead to the birth of that mythical beast: the Super Conference.