Big Ten:
$310 million ($40 from Bowls)

Pac-12:
$303 million ($39 from Bowls)

ACC:
$293 million ($35 from Bowls)

SEC:
$270 million ($50 from Bowls)

Big 12:
$262 million ($42 from Bowls)

Big East:
$94 million ($30 from Bowls)

Conference USA:
$26.5 million ($6.5 from Bowls)

MAC:
$22 million ($18 million from Bowls)

Mountain West:
$21.5 million ($7 million from Bowls)

WAC:
$10 million ($6 million from Bowls)

And that’s why the new FBS “Playoff” is little more than a minor tweak to the old system with a sticker on it that says “Playoff”. But it’s a big first step and it won’t be too many years before the fans (and excluded schools from the Top 4) will be clamoring for expansion to 8 schools.

There are still many questions to be answered. What we know thus far:

The Playoff Skinny:
You have (2) semi-final games to be played each year at one of (6) bowl games in rotation, with the winners playing in a championship. As it is now, there is simply a #1 vs #2 game in the championship, so it is a huge change that (4) teams will get to decide on the field who is the champion, rather than just (2) teams.

Participant Selection:
A committee will decide who the 4 schools to participate are. There is a list of criteria that was announced last night, but with no weighing system, no specifics given, it is still a blind process. What we can expect to see though is that the committee will at some point omit a Coaches/AP poll school ranked #3 or #4 from a non-power conference (Big East, Mountain West, CUSA, Sun Belt, MAC) claiming that strength of schedule was a top criteria. Based on overall membership, that means that the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 will have an advantage. The ACC is right there with that group, with the others left behind. So if you are a school in the Big East, Mountain West, CUSA, Sun Belt or MAC, you will likely need to go undefeated in order to be considered for even spot #4.

Championship Game Location:
The championship game will be sold to the highest bidder, and outside of the current bowl system. That’s not to say that a single city would be excluded from having a semi-final game and the championship, since in the end, it will come down to the semi-final rotation and the championship game bidding. But it is probable that the powers-that-be will try to work things out so that if there were a year that say, Los Angeles were to win a bid for the championship, that the Rose Bowl would not be a semi-final game that year.

Semi-Final Bowl Rotation:
For the bowl rotation, there will be (6) bowls in the mix for the (2) semi-final games. The Rose Bowl (currently #1 Pac-12 vs #1 Big Ten) and the new Champions Bowl (#1 SEC vs #1 Big 12) are in. The Fiesta, Sugar, Orange are all likely in the rotation as well. The Champions Bowl still doesn’t have a location, so that will throw a wrench to some of the plans. The Cotton Bowl would be expected to be the likely #6 bowl in the rotation. However, if the Champions Bowl were to be player at Dallas Cowboys Stadium, it would likely just replace the Cotton Bowl. The same could be said about the Sugar Bowl, if the SEC and Big 12 opted to have the game in New Orleans.

In other words, it’s unlikely that a single city would have (2) Bowls in the rotation. This might open it up for some other options like Chic-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, Outback Bowl in Tampa, Holiday Bowl in San Diego, etc to enter the mix.

Bowl Relevance:
Just when you were starting to get used to seeing oddities like TCU in the Rose Bowl and Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, there will be a return to some of the tradition that had existed for decades. For instance, in a year when the Rose Bowl is not a semi-final game, the game will feature the Pac-12 #1 vs. the Big Ten #1. When either or both conferences send teams to the semi-finals, the conferences will still control the bowl participants. This means that if #1 USC and #2 Ohio St. are in the “playoffs”, then Pac-12 runner-up Oregon would likely play Big Ten runner-up Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. The same system would be in place for the Champions Bowl, where you could see the #2 SEC school play the #2 Big 12 school if both conferences send members to the playoff.

You will also likely see the current BCS bowls align with conferences, just as the non-BCS bowls have. For instance, the Orange Bowl will lock up the ACC, taking their champion in years when the ACC does not send a playoff team. The Sugar Bowl could even go as far as locking up the SEC runner up in their own bowl deal, if the SEC decided to do so. What is left to determine will be what happens to some of the other bowls like the Fiesta, which would be wise to try to line-up a good game such as the Pac-12 and Big 12 runner-up schools. They could always aim for the #1 Mountain West or Big East school. At this point, there is much work to do by the conferences and the bowls to determine their alignments.

For the lesser bowls, things will remain the same. You’ll still see the MAC champion headed to a bowl you’ve possibly never hear of. But the student athletes from all the bowl schools will still get the full bowl experience. And at the end, the winners of the two semi-final games will play for a championship.

What is yet to be known will be just how the bowls select all their participants. We can hypothesize that the Sugar Bowl would try to lock-up the SEC #2 school. But there could always be a free-for-all with the bowls leaving spots open to chose schools to fill the spots. So in a year when Hawaii finishes with a single loss, they could be rewarded with a higher profile bowl, rather than having to be slotted into whatever bowl the Mountain West partners with for their #1 school.

Playoffs on Television:
One of the big reasons for this change to a playoff is the opportunity to make more money. First you have the championship site being awarded to the highest bidder. But the same can happen with the television rights. You could have the semi-final games on one network with the championship on another. Think of the NFL model where Fox might have the Super Bowl while CBS still have an AFC championship game. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the future, where (1) semi-final game could be sold to CBS, (1) semi-final game sold to Fox, and the championship game sold to ABC/ESPN. The prices will jump even further if NBC enters the mix.

Revenue Distribution:
It’s still a secret, or unknown. As of last night, there was no set plan as to who makes what, if higher seeded schools get a bigger revenue cut, etc.

Saying Goodbye to the BCS and Automatic Qualifiers:
With the creation of the (3) playoff games and the return of the rest of the bowls to the traditional system, it means the end of the conference AQ. So no more years when a #32 BCS ranked Uconn school from the Big East takes a spot in a big-money BCS bowl over a #6 or #7 school.

Instinct is to think this would be a benefit for what are now “non-BCS” conferences: if you win your conference, have strong numbers, you will be considered…unlike how it is now, where a Mountain West school must have a perfect season just to sneak into an at-large spot in a BCS bowl.

But the selection committee will ultimately decide who gets in. And there will be many years where the committee will make strong arguments that a second (1) loss SEC school would deserve to be included over an undefeated Mountain West, Big East, CUSA, Sun Belt of MAC school. So unless you have a killer OOC schedule, if you are in one of these current non-BCS conferences, you better go undefeated to be considered. Because a single loss and you’re done…since the committee would almost certainly take a 2-loss SEC school like Florida over a 1 loss Florida International from CUSA.

Sorry, Mountain West, No Can Do:
With the big announcement of a playoff yesterday, there was another piece of news slipped into the mix. The Mountain West received final word that it’s BCS exemption had been denied, meaning that the Mountain West will no get an AQ for the final (2) years of the BCS contract. With the Big East television contract expected to be much higher than the Mountain West deal, it means that Boise St. will likely officially announce their departure from the MWC to join the Big East for football only. It means BCS access for Boise St. in the Big East next year and more TV revenue in future years with the only negatives being their membership in the WAC, an unstable conference, for non-football sports…and of course the increased football travel costs.

Playoff Effect on Conference Realignment:
The quick answer: nobody knows.  It would seem that with all access being equal, that stability would be on the horizon. But with such access for all, it also puts a premium on the individual conference television contracts. So if the SEC can make millions more per school by adding a Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, NC State or other school from the ACC or Big 12, what’s to stop them. In the case of the Oklahoma and OSU, it’s the Big 12 TV rights waiver that would be a deterrent, as those schools would love many millions in joining the SEC now, versus the ease that Texas A&M and Missouri had. You also have the Big 12 now at 10, losing out on millions on dollars in revenue from now having a championship game. So perhaps the Big 12 makes a larger push to expand with schools like Louisville or BYU. Or maybe the look to the ACC with schools like Florida St., Clemson, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh or others.

In the lower conferences, with that same access existing, it would seem that it would open the doors for some regional stability. The Mountain West appears poised to hold two spots open for Boise St. and San Diego St. to return one day rather than adding New Mexico St. and Idaho to get to 12. And until the Boise St./SDSU to Big East experiment has some recorded data, there’s no reason to think either school would change their plans. Mountain West fans hope that is an incorrect assessment.

We’ll have to wait an see how the playoff works itself out. Because right now, it would appear that the only ways for a conference to generate more revenue (a primary driver) would be:

1) To expand into new markets to increase their television contract value
2) To expand to 12 (MWC, Sun Belt, Big 12) to have a championship game
3) To bring in schools that will improve a conferences chances of getting a school selected to the playoff.

We can cross of #3 for the Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and likely the Big 12 unless Notre Dame joined. When you look at the available candidates, there seem to be no options for the Big East to improve after adding Boise St. So that leaves the Mountain West, CUSA, Sun Belt and MAC. If a school goes on a run of finishing with a strong record in one of those conferences, they might gain enough appeal to be invited to another conference. For instance, if UTSA becomes an FBS power, the Mountain West and CUSA would likely come calling. But it would appear that movement at the FBS level will be minimal for now when the motive if to improve the chances or getting a playoff bid.

For reason #2, you have a few players:
The Big 12 could decide that the championship game money and new markets to improve their TV contract are reason enough to expand. If they cannot get Notre Dame or an ACC school to budge, that leaves the Big East and Mountain West, where you could see programs like Louisville as well as even Houston and Memphis become candidates if they prove to be successful in the Big East. BYU is also an option, currently an independent.

The Mountain West could eventually give up on a Boise St. or SDSU return, and opt to expand to 12. You have New Mexico St. and Idaho already pleading to join. In time, you could see Sun Belt schools like Texas St. make a push if they are successful. Even CUSA schools like North Texas and UTSA could become options if the Mountain West does prove to be the more successful conference. The Sun Belt could expand to 12 with FCS options like Appalachian St., Georgia Southern or even perhaps Jacksonville St. or JMU. They also always have Idaho and New Mexico St. as football-only options.

For Reason #1, there are endless options. The SEC could expand to 16 or 18 with ACC schools. The ACC could expand to 16 with Big East members like UConn and Rutgers. The Big East could expand again in the west or even look east with schools like ECU or UMass for football only. The Pac-12 would appear locked in at 12, since Texas/Texas Tech/Oklahoma/OSU were the only candidates that brought real revenue projections to the conference. The Big Ten seems set at 12 after years of sitting at 11. But what if they decide to tinker with a southern push with schools like Maryland and Virginia? It’s highly doubtful now though to even consider that.

But for now, it does seem that the strategy will be for the conferences to sit and wait, to see what happens with the new playoff system. If   conferences are being left out for different reasons (like, say, Big 12 being punished for not having a championship game), it will take time to recognize the trends. But as long as the lure of big television money is out there, the lower conferences should always be on guard.

As we’ve done in 2011 and  previous years, here’s an updated list for the 2012 NCAA television revenue by conference for the BCS conferences. Note that there will be additional changes once league specific networks (like Pac-12 Network) are generating more money. Other contracts are expected to be altered to reflect new membership additions such as ACC, SEC and Big 12. The Big East contract is next up for renewal. The value is expected to be much lower with the losses of Syracuse, Pittsburgh and WVU but will still increase due to inflated value within the industry for conference television contracts. The per school increase for the Big East will likely rise as well, even with the membership growing to 13 members.

ACC

Big Ten

Big 12

Pac-12

SEC

OTHERS:

CUSA
5 years, $35 million, CBS College Sports (through 2016)
5 years, $35 million, Fox (through 2016)
Annual: $14 million
Average Annual per School: $1.17 million
Notes: CUSA and the MWC are expected to form a football alliance in order to negotiate a single TV contract for that sport.

Mountain West
10 years, $120 million, CBS College Sports (through 2016)
Annual: $12 million
Average Annual per School: $1.33 million
Notes: losses and additions now have the MWC at 10 members with Hawaii as a football only member, will lower per school payout. The MWC ended their own channel, Mtn this year. CUSA and the MWC are expected to form a football alliance in order to negotiate a single TV contract for that sport.

More figures here and here…

Overall Notes:
Note that many of these figures are fluid due to issues such as conference specific networks and their revenue growth potential. Per school payouts wil vary as well due to specific conferences distribution processes and their own TV rights factored in.

The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

As we’ve done in previous years, here’s an updated list for the 2011 NCAA television revenue by conference for the BCS conferences. Note that there will be additional changes once league specific networks (like Pac-12 Network) are finalized. Other contracts are expected to be altered to reflect new membership additions such as ACC, SEC and Big 12. The Big East contract is next up for renewal. The value is expected to be much lower with the losses of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, but will still increase due to inflated value within the industry for conference television contracts.

ACC

 
Big Ten

Big 12

Pac-12

SEC

 
OTHERS:

CUSA
5 years, $35 million, CBS College Sports (through 2016)
5 years, $35 million, Fox (through 2016)
Annual: $14 million
Average Annual per School: $1.17 million

Mountain West
10 years, $120 million, CBS College Sports (through 2016)
Annual: $12 million
Average Annual per School: $1.33 million
Notes: losses and additions now have the MWC at 10 members with Hawaii as a football only member, will lower per school payout.

More figures…

The conclusion is now that the Pac-12 now has the richest TV contract in the country, a result of crafty business dealing by Scott with the ideal timing as broadcasters are spending large for access to live sports content. Fox and ESPN were the eventual buyers, but had the likes of NBC/Comcast, CBS and Turner looking to get in the game as well…and driving up the price.

But what makes this deal an even bigger coup for the Pac-12 is that they’ll get their roughly $225 million per year, about $21 million per school per year. And they’ll get their coveted Pac-12 network launched. But the key to the deal is that unlike the Big Ten Network, which is has a near equal revenue split between the conference and Fox (51% Big Ten, 49% Fox), the Pac-12 Network will be solely a property of the Pac-12. So all future revenues such as subscriber fees and advertising will go into the Pac-12′s pocket.

Here are some specs on the deal:

Price: $3 billion
Length: 12 years
Annual revenue: $225 to Pac-12
Annual per school: roughly $21 million per school
Conference Network: Pac-12 Network, fully owned by Pac-12, to broadcast a minimum of 350 annual events
Online Network: similar to ESPN3, will carry 500 annual events

Broadcasting:
* 5 prime time football games on ABC and Fox
* Football games will also be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and FX
* Basketball games will be on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU and FoxSports regional networks
* ABC/ESPN and Fox will rotate the annual football championship game each year
* ESPN and Fox/FX will alternate the basketball conference tournament
* ESPN will also carry some of the Pac-12′s other olympic sports not on the Pac-12 network

Press Conference:

Highlights:
* Football will be on ABC and Fox, some primetime Saturdays.
* Pac-12 network will have football games as well
* Who gets what games is decided by Pac-12 at some point, not a real pecking order, more of a schedule. At beginning of season once schedule is out, the networks “draft” games like picks.
* Pac-12 Network: Pac-12 Media Enterprises is the official company they formed. Is both TV and Digital.
* All football games and basketball will be on TV (ABC/ESPN, Fox/FX, Pac-12 Network)
* Basketball: all games on TV: 68 on ESPN and Fox, all others on Pac-12 Network
* Women’s basketball likely the big component of Pac-12 network
* Pac-12 Media Labs: group of Pac-12 school members/alum will work on projects for the digital side of the network, bringing the schools into the process.
* Pac-12 Properties: will handle development and management of tournaments, etc

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News takes a stab at the matter.

According to my sources, there is no indication that ESPN will be willing to pay what the Pac-12 wants or provide the exposure opportunities the Pac-12 is seeking. “ESPN has no place to put them,” one analyst said. Consider this: The Pac-12 is looking for a deal in the $140-150 million range, which, when combined with BCS and March Madness money, would push the league’s total revenue beyond the $170 million benchmark established by the CEOs last fall. (Until total revenue reaches $170 million annually, the league must make $2 million payments to USC and UCLA.) Now consider that ESPN signed a media rights deal with the ACC last summer that was worth about $155 million per year – except it wasn’t really $155 per year. Raycom, a regional network that has partnered with the ACC for decades, is paying about $30 million in sub-licensing fees. So in reality, ESPN paid $120 or so for the ACC, and there is no equivalent of Raycom in the Pac-12 footprint. Would ESPN pay $20-30 million more to be the primary Pac-12 right holders? No chance, according to industry sources.

If ESPN is out, one has to wonder if this will open the door for someone like Comcast/NBC, as FoxSports would be the only other option.

But the regional networks will also likely be in the mix for some rebranding, such as ComcastSportsNet Bay Area (CSN Bay Area) potentially becoming NBC Sports Bay Area, or CSN New England becoming NBC Sports New England. Or course, Comcast networks like SNY in New York will likely be exempt, since they are a joint business by the NY Mets, Time Warner and Comcast.

But the key, is that with these upcoming moves, the door will be opened for NBC Sports to get more aggressive in obtaining more college sports broadcast rights for it’s regional networks, the primary NBC Sports Network (currently called Versus), and perhaps even NBC itself.
Since the business is currently tied to the model of networks partnering with conferences, there are only so many options at this time.
Comcast already has the Mountain West in it’s fold via the Mtn, in theory, so they have those west coast markets.

The SEC, Big Ten, ACC and soon to be Pac-10 are locked up or about to be locked up elsewhere via ESPN/ABC, CBS and FoxSports.

But all of a sudden, maybe the new TCU included Big East conference could make a push to be the east coast conference tied into the new NBC Sports, since the Big East is already a big part of SNY in NY.

And if Fox can’t fully pony up the $20 million for the Big 12 schools, a promise made to keep that conference together, then maybe you make a bold move to get that conference.

In the perfect world for NBC sports, that would mean having the Big East (east), Big 12 (Central) and MWC (West). That would be huge for the regional networks since like FoxSports, it would mean having (3) games on in EVERY region each Saturday: a 12pmET(9amPT) Big East game, a 4pmET(1pmPT) of a Big 12 game, and an 8pmET MWC game(5pmPT) each week on 1 network.

Even better, if you can get 1-2 more conferences on top of the MWC, even just the Big East, then you have a choice for having a featured game each week on NBC Sports (currently called Versus). Some weeks it might be Pitt vs WVU, or Syracuse vs Pittsburgh, while other weeks it might be more like Boise St. vs SDSU.

And if this works out, there is always the opportunity for the NBC Sports re-named network (currently Versus) to have a featured game each Saturday on NBC. There is something to be said about each week having Notre Dame on NBC either followed by or preceding a featured MWC or Big East game of a high magnitude.

But at this time, with only the MWC in the mix, and it’s not as strong a product to be putting out there on a national level on a network like NBC that would likely have higher ratings in golf.

Time will tell and we’ll know more as the Comcast and NBC merger makes more progress.

But it appears that with a national brand like NBC combining with the strong infrastructure already in place via the Comcast regional sports networks, that like ABC has with the ESPN properties of ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, or how FoxSports is with it’s regional contracts, perhaps we’re about to see a new power player enter the mix. Of course, with new competition, will mean even higher TV contracts for the schools/conferences to benefit from.

But for the Big 12, there has been much talk of will or won’t they expand. Fans and local media have suggested going after SEC schools such as Arkansas and LSU. In reality, the Big 12 is not entirely in the position to attract such programs. Those that they could get would be schools such as BYU, Louisville and TCU as the top schools that would consider the move. After that, it’s only schools from CUSA and the MWC. Even TCU is less desirable as they would bring a limited new revenue stream. Schools such as UNLV and New Mexico would open up new markets, but with no lock to provide the necessary revenue to justify expansion.

The Big 12 has come to similar conclusions if they are considering a name change. The move would likely be to remove the “12″ in some form. The conference has hired GSD&M Idea City to consider new name ideas. It’s a safe assumption that if a move were made to remove the “12″ that the conference would be less likely to expand in the near future as changing the brand would be a permanent change.

In other Big 12 news, Oklahoma is in discussions to launch it’s own TV network, similar to what Texas is currently negotiating.

Source:

Sports Business Daily:

CBS led all nets broadcasting college football this season with a 4.2 rating and 6.9 million viewers for its package of SEC games. The net this season topped ABC’s college football broadcasts for only the second time since ’90. However, CBS’ figures are down 4.5% from the net’s record-setting numbers last season, when CBS earned its best ratings for SEC games since the net began re-airing college football in ’96. ABC averaged a 3.5 rating for its 30 college football telecasts this season, which was down just over 10% from last year. The net saw ratings decline for both its Saturday 3:30pm ET games (-0.9%) and for its Saturday primetime games (-9.5%). NBC averaged a 2.1 rating and 3.1 million viewers for its eight Notre Dame football telecasts this season, down 12.5% and 15.0%, respectively, from last year.

CABLE TOWNS: ESPN averaged a 1.9 U.S. rating and 2.966 million viewers for its 75 college football telecasts. While the net’s rating was flat with ’09, the viewership level marks the net’s most-watched season since ’94. The net also saw a slight increase in audience for its 14 “College GameDay” telecasts, up 1.4% in viewership from ’09. ESPN2′s 56 telecasts averaged a 0.9 rating and 1.416 million viewers, down 10% compared to ’09. Versus saw gains in ratings and viewership this season, which included a mix of Pac-10, Mountain West and Ivy League telecasts. The net’s telecasts in ’09 last season also included games from the Big 12. Versus was buoyed by the Nov. 13 Oregon-Cal matchup, which marked the net’s most-viewed college football game ever. The net averaged 692,000 viewers for its seven Pac-10 telecasts (+46.3%) and 331,000 viewers for its eight Mountain West games (+56.9%).