Utah Valley: Big Sky, Summit

Seattle: WCC

UTPA: Southland

Cal St. Bakersfield: Big West

New Mexico St.: Sun Belt, Southland

The WAC seems to be on a path to add Grand Canyon University, currently in Division 2, as the replacement for Denver.

For the Big Sky, the addition of Idaho gives them another school right in the middle of their footprint. For Idaho, the move will give them more stability than in the WAC while they wait to see what happens with the Mountain West. Idaho has long sought membership in the Mountain West while the conference has has little interest in adding them.

After months of negotiations, the Big West has accepted Boise St.as a member, effective 8/1/13. The move has been expected, but took some time as Boise St. needed the Big East to cover their entrance fees. With Boise St. joining Hawaii and San Diego St., the Big West has now brought in 3 western FBS football schools seeking homes for their non-football sports.

Per Chadd Cripe and Brian Murphy of the Idaho Statesman from the Boise St. press conference notes:

* Boise State President Bob Kustra: “Our going to the Big East was contingent upon finding a safe, secure and competitive environment for the rest of our sports.”

*  The Big East will pay half of Boise State’s $770,000 travel subsidy in the first two years ($385,000 per year for Big East). That’s a bridge to the Big East’s new TV deal.

*  The Big East will pay $2 million of Boise State’s $2.5 million entry fee to the Big West. As a result, Boise State will pay a full $2.5 million entry fee to the Big East.

*  Boise State will make a one-time equity payment to the Big West of $176,000. The school will receive a full share of conference revenue from the start.

* Boise State would owe an exit fee to the Big West. It starts at $1.5 million in 2014, then drops by $250,000 each year until 2018, when it hits $250,000 and stays there. If San Diego State leaves the Big West, the Big West can terminate Boise State’s membership with 24 months notice.

* Hawaii won’t have to pay travel costs to Boise State when the Broncos go to the islands. Hawaii reportedly pays about $500,000 in subsidies.

First, Idaho AD Rob Spears, has made it clear that Idaho and the Big Sky have indeed had discussions, but they involved Idaho joining the Big Sky for non-football sports. In other words, Idaho would not be downgrading to FCS and would remain in FBS.

But it’s a recent radio interview by Big Sky commissioner Doug Fullerton that really has people scratching their heads.

Fullerton has hinted that the Big Sky might take a more proactive role in regards to the WAC, considering a move that would partially absorb the WAC into the Big Sky. The idea would have some current Big Sky schools moving to the WAC in order for the WAC to retain their NCAA auto bid.

The idea is an interesting one. If the Big Sky were to simply absorb all WAC members, it would mean quite a large conference, adding 4-5 new schools to a 13 school conference. That would mean 17-18 schools fighting it out for a single at-large NCAA bid. But in moving a few schools over to the WAC, it would mean (2) NCAA bids for the 17-18 total schools.

So for basketball, there would be two conferences. For football, there would be one. And for some of the other sports, when there are not enough members to have (2) conferences, there would be one.

For an idea of how things might look, you would have your existing (5) WAC schools (assuming Boise St. does not join the Big West), moving over a handful of schools to balance out membership.

* Boise State
* Idaho
* Seattle
Eastern Washington
* Denver
Northern Colorado
* New Mexico State
Northern Arizona

Sacramento State
Portland State
Weber State
Southern Utah
North Dakota
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State

This is still just an idea, not something that has been finalized, and for good reason. You’ll have schools that might not want to be split from others. For instance, is Northern Arizona going to want to be in a conference that spreads from Las Cruces, NM to Seattle, with nearby Southern Utah in a different conference?

The idea is strong, it just needs some time to see if it could actually work. But any opportunity to secure (2) NCAA bids would be a huge plus. Safety also comes into play…and if a school or schools were to leave the WAC, the Big Sky would be able to just absorb the remaining schools in the WAC.

For a look at how these schools would generally play out on a map. visit the NCAA Map:

Following what appears to be the trend started by UTSA (to CUSA), Utah St. and San Jose St. (to Mountain West) and likely Louisiana Tech to CUSA, Texas St. will flee as well.

Texas St. will likely be the replacement for North Texas, which is also expected to join CUSA. UT-Arlington allows the conference to remain in the Dallas market with the North Texas loss.

The WAC will now be left with only New Mexico St. and Idaho as football sponsoring members. But with all these departures to happen for the 2013 season, it appears this upcoming football season will be the last for the WAC.

But the non-football roster is facing it’s own extinction.

Remaining members will include NMSU, Idaho, Boise St., Denver and Seattle. The conference will likely need to bring in Utah Valley and UTPA just to remain at 7 and bring in an 8th member in CSU-Bakersfield. But with that instability, it is also just as likely that Denver flees for the Summit League. Denver and Seattle would both like to be in the WCC, but that conference has not shown any interest thus far in expanding to 12 following the addition of Pacific. Boise St. was tried for the Big Sky and Big West, but settled on the WAC as it was it’s only non-football option.

In November of 2010, we covered the State of the WAC: A Conference on Life Support. After receiving some donations from the FCS subdivision, the WAC took some time to rest and see if the new additions would take. To help ease the pain, the WAC even adding some support outside of football, by adding Texas-Arlington to help it’s eastern football wing of UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech…and even added Denver and Seattle to give it’s northern members, Idaho and Utah St. a hand.

But unfortunately for the WAC, it’s time as a football conference has come to an end.

First to leave, or at least to become just about official, is UTSA. The school plans on leaving the WAC to join the newest version of Conference USA. It’s quite a feat for UTSA, a new football program that was able to go from non-existent to CUSA in just a couple years thanks to the departure of 4 CUSA schools.

Next up for the WAC exodus are the team of Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. has for some time been a logical MWC addition, as a way to attempt to replace the lost market of Utah with the departures of BYU and Utah. Salt Lake City had been the epicenter of the MWC, and Utah St. has a chance to help the conference reclaim some of that lost market. San Jose St. brings very little on field success. But it’s presence in the Bay Area make it an appealing option for the MWC as they seek a better television deal.

Next up for the farewell tour of the WAC will likely be Louisiana Tech. The school is expected to be the selection for the #12 spot in CUSA, with UTSA, North Texas, and Florida International joining as well. There is still a chance that Charlotte or even Appalachian St. could sneak past Louisiana Tech. But even if that happens, Louisiana Tech is likely gone anyways. With the WAC now over for football, LA Tech will at worst leave the WAC for the Sun Belt in the event that they are passed over by CUSA at the last minute.

The next likely WAC member to waive goodbye? None other than the Fighting Armadillos, I mean Bobcats, from Texas St. While the San Marcos school has less clout than North Texas in the conference realignment pecking order, and doesn’t offer the market penetration that UTSA does, Texas St. does have something to offer: a school in Texas. It might not seem like much, but Texas St. appears to be in a position where they could benefit from all the Big East and now CUSA movement. With the Sun Belt expected to lose North Texas and Florida International, even with incoming Georgia St., the Sun Belt will be looking for members. With LA Tech likely in CUSA, it means the Sun Belt candidates will be Charlotte and Texas State. Others such as Appalachian St., Georgia Southern and ODU have yet to fully commit to upgrading to FBS football. Once the Sun Belt loses 2 schools, they will be back at 9 members with Georgia State. Charlotte might be the pick here. But the conference might also opt for another FCS upgrade along with Texas St. for a 12 school football conference. Even another lonely WAC member could slip in along with Charlotte and Texas St.

And that lonely WAC member? That would be New Mexico State.

The chances that New Mexico St. join the Sun Belt are slim to none, but a bit closer to “slim”. Under a few scenarios, the Sun Belt might see a benefit in adding NMSU as it’s 12th football member. This would likely only happen if LA Tech does join CUSA, as well as North Texas and FIU. The Sun Belt, at 9 football members, could always add Texas St. and NMSU along with Charlotte for a 12 school football conference.

And then there is Idaho.

The poor Vandals have to sit back and watch all the other conferences come in and loot their conference, only to be left with no other football schools. Pride will likely keep Idaho in FBS football for many years, despite having no conference home. Idaho doesn’t have the clout of a BYU, Notre Dame or Army in being an independent, but they will have no choice. The only shot, and it’s a long one, would be if Idaho were to seek football only membership in the Sun Belt. If things worked out for them, perhaps NMSU is also left outside, and the tandem could attempt the get the Sun Belt to accept them as low revenue gaining football-only members in a 14 school conference. Idaho could also try to get the MAC to offer a similar spot, not that much different than when UCF was a MAC football member. But Florida certainly offers better incentives to the MAC than Idaho.

As for a life preserver, similar to what kept the WAC alive once before? It just doesn’t exist this time around. Schools like Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Sacramento St., Lamar and SHSU passed on upgrading last time when the WAC still had a core group with Utah St., San Jose St., LA Tech and others. With them all gone and only 2-3 schools remaining, there is no chance that a group of regional FCS schools would upgrade.

Breakdown of a Broken Down WAC – Options for it’s Members:

Status: SAFE
UTSA will be leaving the WAC for CUSA

Status: SAFE
Utah St. will be leaving the WAC for the Mountain West

Status: SAFE
San Jose St. will be leaving the WAC for the Mountain West

Status: SAFE
Louisiana Tech Options: will either be moving to CUSA as member #12 (with UTSA, North Texas and FIU) or joining the Sun Belt if LA Tech is passed over by CUSA for Charlotte or Appalachian St.

Status: CHANCE OF BEING LEFT BEHIND
Texas St. could be left out of the FBS football conference mix. Their primary hope is that the Sun Belt loses 2-3 schools with their membership dropping to 8-9. Either Charlotte or LA Tech would be the top replacement, whichever one is not invited to CUSA. Texas St. expects that it will slip into the next spot for school #11 under the scenario in which the Sun Belt loses North Texas and FIU to CUSA, adds Georgia St. for #9, adds Charlotte or LA Tech for #10, and Texas St. for #11. If the Sun Belt were lose lose out on Charlotte, it might be a blessing in disguise for other schools, as the conference might than take Appalachian St. (similar region as Charlotte) and Texas St. for #12.
Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while returning to the Southland for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Southland reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and re-join the Southland Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

Status: GOOD CHANCE OF BEING LEFT BEHIND
New Mexico St. is in a worse situation that Texas St. Their only hope is that the Sun Belt opts to expand to 12 schools, adding Charlotte or LA Tech along with Texas St. to get to 11 following the departures of North Texas and FIU. NMSU would have to beat out FCS schools like Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern for that final spot.

Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Southland for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Southland reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and join Southland Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

Status: POOR
Idaho is in the worst possible spot. They regionally are not an ideal fit for all-sports membership in the Sun Belt, the only conference that might have space for them (since the MWC does not have any desire for them at this time). Idaho’s only shot of not being am FBS football independent will be if they are able to join the Sun Belt in some capacity.

Scenarios if left behind:
A) Participate as a FBS independent while remaining in the  WAC for non-football sports
B)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Big Sky for non-football sports
C)  Participate as a FBS independent while joining the Summit League for non-football sports should the WAC fold and Big Sky reject them
D) Downgrade to FCS football and join Big Sky Conference
Other FBS option: school could seek football only membership in a conference such as the Sun Belt or MAC

WAC Survival Once Football is Gone:

Lost in the realignment news is that beyond being just about football, there are also non-football members with a stake in the action. The hope here is that the WAC can keep enough members such as Idaho and NMSU, and perhaps Texas St., and that they can pick up a few other members from conferences like the Summit League or Southland.

* Utah Valley will be expected to join the WAC.

* CSU-Bakersfield is another option that the WAC to consider.

* UTPA will be expected to join if the WAC can keep any Texas members such as Texas St. and UT-Arlington and the Southland does not offer them membership

* They will also have to look at potential Division 2 upgrades in the region.

* If times are desperate, New Orleans is another option, as the school will rejoin Division 1 and is without a home

Looking at the math, the WAC would appear to be safe as a conference without football. Likely membership:

CSU-Bakersfield
Seattle
Idaho
Denver
Utah Valley
NMSU
Texas-Arlington
UTPA
New Orleans

WAC Non-Football members:

The newest WAC member, as a result of Boise St. moving it’s football program to the Big East. Should the WAC fold, Boise St. will have a few options.

Options if the WAC folds:
- seek membership in the Big Sky for non-football sports
- join the Summit League for non-football sports
- Try again to get the Big West to accept them for non-football sports
 Seattle has few options. They only joined the WAC because the WCC and Big West had no interest. Seattle would have one option: hope the WCC changes their stance and brings them in with a 12th school after Pacific joins for 12 member.

 Denver has a few options as well. They can always join the Summit League. The could also ask the Big West to change their football requirement rules ans apply. And Denver always has the hope that thanks to the WCC additions of BYU and Pacific, that the WCC would invite them as a travel partner for the Utah based school, becoming member #12 with Seattle.

 Texas-Arlington will always likely have a home back in the Southland if they want it. The fact that the Southland is flirting with schools like UTPA says much about their conference stability. Even more telling is that UTPA has yet to be invited, likely a case of the Southland holding out to see how the WAC membership shakes out. If the WAC folds, UTA will have a home again. If the Southland felt too jilted, UTA could always join the Summit.

Over the next few weeks, the WAC will undergo some more changes. But what you see above should cover just about every scenario…even some real longshots.

To keep up with all the scenarios and news, be sure to follow the Conference Realignment Grid .

The move will bring the Mountain West total membership to 9 all-sports members and 10 for football. While warm bodies for the MWC has been a priority, they have the luxury of also adding the Salt Lake City market and the Bay Area to help boost it’s television contract value. The Mountain West and CUSA are still expected to partner up, despite a full merger being shelved. The plan will likely involve the two conferences forming a football alliance where they negotiate a united television deal and arrange for some sort of championship game.

If the Mountain West were to add 2 more schools and grow to 12, combined with the expected growth of CUSA to 12, the alliance could hold two championship games with the winners meeting in a bowl game.

CUSA will be adding UTSA as well as likely North Texas and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech will likely be the 12th CUSA member unless Charlotte can get more support for it’s inclusion. Old Dominion is also keeping an eye on things in the event that they opt to upgrade to FBS.

The losses of Utah St. and San Jose St. from the WAC will put the final nail in them as a football conference.

With Utah St., San Jose St., UTSA and potentially Louisiana Tech leaving, the WAC will be left with only New Mexico St., Idaho and Texas St.

Texas St. will be pushing the Sun Belt hard for inclusion to replace the losses of North Texas and UTSA.

New Mexico St. will also likely petition the Sun Belt so that they are not left out. But the Sun Belt might have more appealing options such as Appalachian St., Charlotte and Georgia Southern. Even ODU might make itself available if they feel desperate enough. And maybe that would be the right call, since CUSA and the Sun Belt will be fairly locked into their new memberships and the MAC, already at 13 would remain the only FBS option.

For Idaho, it’s a tough a time as ever. Texas St. has the advantage of being in a close proximity to the other Sun Belt members, in comparison. Idaho and even NMSU remain far away with little value to the Sun Belt. It would not be shocking to see NMSU and Idaho seek even football-only Sun Belt membership with limited revenue in return to both schools as a means to secure a football home.