The Recap:

So the ACC struck first by adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East. The SEC followed by adding Texas A&M and Missouri from the Big 12. The Big 12 then added TCU and WVU.

And things seemed normal. Patterns remained intact. And we waited for the next, seemingly logical move.

And then the Big East came up to bat…

What did the world expect? Some logical moves following the same familiar patterns. When the Big East lost 3 schools in 2003 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College to the ACC), the replaced those 3 all-sports schools with 3 all-sports schools from CUSA: Louisville, Cincinnati and USF. And to appease the 6 non-football schools in the Big East, non-football members DePaul and Marquette were also brought in from CUSA.

So when the Big East was down 4 football schools, we just assumed they would follow a familiar path. First, we expected the annual phone calls to Army and Navy. Upon the annual rejections, the Big East would then look to CUSA. In response to the initial losses of Syracuse, Pitt and TCU, the Big East then lined up UCF, Houston and SMU. And it made sense to everyone, knowing that if WVU or Louisville left for the Big 12, that the conference would still have local options to consider such as Temple, Villanova (FBS upgrade), Memphis, and ECU.

But instead, the Big East went bold, going coast to coast. The first school they called: Boise St. for football only. And Boise St. accepted.

Next school up: Air Force. Despite some interest, Air Force passed, as they did when the Big 12 reached out to them, citing the competition level, travel, etc, as reasons to pass.

Next up: BYU. Despite mutual interest, ultimately, BYU passed on the idea, citing financial interests as the reason. But many still think that with rival Utah being in the Pac-12, that remaining independent is the only move that can keep BYU on pace with Utah…as the Big 12 and Big East as less attractive options than the Pac-12.

With Air Force and BYU out, the Big East then went after San Diego St. for football only…who accepted.

So with the Big East football membership then at 10, the Big East was able to convince Navy to join for football only.

And with WVU leaving and the membership at 11, the Big East then passed on football-only and all-sports options like Temple in favor of all-sports membership by Memphis.

And with the Big East at 12, all seemed to settle down.

But now it was time for CUSA and the Mountain West to make their moves. The result? An all-sports merger by the conferences.

The CUSA/MWC Merger aka the “Countrywide Conference”:

The CUSA/MWC merger makes sense on a number of levels. It brings stability to a conference by bringing it’s membership to 15 all-sports and 16 football schools. If even 5-6 left, they’d still have 9-10 schools as a base. And for a new television contract, covering so many markets across the country will make the conference more appealing than as 2 separate entities. To save on travel, the conference will be split into 2 regional divisions. And with so many state schools in the conference (16 schools in 13 different states), the conference will have some political power, something it might not have as 2 separate conferences.

But what is most interesting is that even at 16 schools, the still un-named CUSA/MWC merger might add more schools.

Future Conference Realignment:

Let’s start with the conferences more people are interested in, the BCS level conferences:

Big Ten:

Despite the expansion by the SEC and ACC to 14, the Big 12 considering to go beyond 10,  CUSA/MWC at 16, the Big Ten will likely remain at 12. They sat at 11 for many years, waiting for the perfect opportunity (Nebraska). They have given up on Notre Dame, basically telling Notre Dame they will no longer invite them, but will listen if Notre Dame approaches them. Should Notre Dame ever do that, you could see them seek a 14th school to balance the divisions.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: slim to none

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the school the Big Ten wants, but the same school that seems set to pass on the Big Ten
Missouri: they are in the SEC now, so a move to their desired conference, the Big Ten, might be a long shot now
Pitt & Syracuse: both schools are now in the ACC, similar situation to Missouri. Both schools may be able to compete in the ACC for football, the Big Ten might be more difficult.
Rutgers: long thought to be future Big Ten member, the Nebraska addition makes a move less likely.
UConn: similar to Rutgers in providing access to the northeast.
Kansas: another longshot since they’d only be considered as a #14 school with Notre Dame, in which case an eastern school like Rutgers or Uconn would make more sense.

SEC:

We can keep this one short and sweet. The conference just expanded to 14 and it will take some time to get it’s legs with 2 additional members, adding two new markets, new regions even, with Texas A&M and Missouri. There will always be a chance that the SEC might go bold with a move to 16 and redefine the landscape as the top football conference.

Probability of expanding in the near future: slim to none

Candidates:
Virginia Tech
NC State
Florida St.*
Miami*
Clemson*
Georgia Tech* 

* SEC has said they will not add any schools currently in a state that an SEC school is in.

Pac-12:

The Pac-10 laid out a bold plan and 2 years in a row, came close to pulling off a major coup. They seemed within hours of closing the deal, twice, to add Colorado, Utah, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In the end, the conference passed on expansion to 16 once they added Colorado and Utah, as the demands made by Texas and other elements involved in adding the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech led to Pac-12 stability at 12. While the door seems shut for expansion, we can never rule it out…given the on again, off again Big 12 relationships.

Probability of expanding in the near future:: unlikely. Once the current Big 12 television contract expires, Texas and Oklahoma might always consider the Pac-12 again…if the Pac-12 would listen. But for the time being, the Pac-12 seems set.

Candidates:
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Kansas 

ACC:

The ACC is in a rare spot where the conference, even at 14, might actually be in a position to increase their per-school revenue by adding schools that might not add obvious value. Notre Dame is the top option: if the school were to leave the Big East and forced into an all-sports conference, the ACC is considered the top option. Many would question that, thinking the Big Ten makes more sense. But the ACC would provide Notre Dame with a strong academic conference, an easier level of competition, rivalries with the popular northeast schools (and fellow Catholic school Boston College) and most importantly, recruiting access into the southeast.

If a Notre Dame addition happened in the ACC, Uconn would likely be brought in as #16.

But the ACC might be in a unique position where even if Notre Dame ultimately passes on the ACC for good, the ACC could still expand with Uconn and Rutgers. Yes, the same Uconn that is set to lose it’s long tenured basketball coach, and the same Rutgers that just lost it’s football coach. But with the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, along with existing members Boston College, Maryland and former Big East school, Miami (a popular school with people in the northeast), the ACC could put in the final blow to the Big East in taking over the northeast region as it’s own. The Atlantic Coast Conference could become the actual conference of the entire Atlantic coast..complete with a takeover of MSG for the basketball conference tournament.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.
Notre Dame is the key. The ACC would also need to get revenue estimates from the networks (ESPN) as to what the new value would be if Uconn and Rutgers were added. As no move has been made yet, we can’t assume that is because the revenue numbers are poor. Instead, perception could be a factor as the ACC has been labeled as “raiding” the Big East now for 5 schools…while the Big East, who took 9 CUSA members in less than a decade, has never had that negative label.

Candidates:
Notre Dame: the top option by far
UConn: if Notre Dame is added, Uconn would be #16
Rutgers: if Notre Dame passes, Uconn and Rutgers could be added

Big 12:

How things change. For the past 2 years, the Big 12 appeared ready to fold with 5-6 schools heading to the Pac-10 and Nebraska to the Big Ten. But the members held with only Texas A&M and Missouri leaving. Their replacements? TCU and WVU who one can argue have been superior football programs to the departed. After some legal hassles between WVU and the Big East, the Big 12 is set for 2012 at 10 members. But just a few months ago, Louisville appeared ready to join in the spot taken by WVU. Even today, it seems like only time before Louisville joins the Big 12. The problem is finding a #12 school for a conference named the Big “12″. BYU was approached, but passed over financial concerns. Would a newly united conference change their mind? Perhaps. Air Force was also contacted but passed due to fears of not being competitive. But with Navy now in the Big East and the CUSA/MWC merger all that is left for Air Force, maybe they would be wise to consider a tougher schedule in favor of higher relevancy. But after those 3 schools, 2 of which have passed on the Big 12, the candidate pool takes a step back. You have schools like Houston who could perhaps add something to the lost Texas A&M market. You have Cincinnati, the school many feel can most easily be slotted in for #12 with WVU and Louisville. And then there is Rutgers, a school that could give the Big 12 it’s stake in the vulnerable northeast region, current split up by the Big Ten (Penn St.), ACC (Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt) and Big East (Uconn and Rutgers). Uconn, like Rutgers, is an option, but Rutgers offers more access to the NYC market and is a closer proximity to WVU and Louisville. UNLV would be another option, pushing the conference footprint to the west, providing access to the Las Vegas market.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
Louisville: top choice for #11
Cincinnati
Rutgers
BYU
Air Force
Houston
UNLV 

Big East:

Now at 12 schools for football and 17 for all-sports, there would seem to be little room to grow. If football schools are added, it means expanding to 14. This would seem to only work if football-only schools joined like Air Force, BYU or Temple. Of that group, only Air Force and BYU would be true favorites since they would help provide stability and travel ease in the western region. Others such as Temple and ECU seem only to be possible is other Big East members left (Louisville, Uconn, Rutgers). For all-sports members, the list is even smaller: why add more members if they don’t benefits both football and basketball. There currently aren’t any schools that would fill that criteria.

The Big East coast-to-coast experiment could open some interesting doors though. Right now, the move is for football only. But what if that changed in the future. The Big East always seems to be 1 move away from a basketball/football split, yet they remain intact in a brutal hybrid: small catholic schools combined with mostly large, public football schools. But who knows what the future will hold? If a split did happen, it would open the door for the Big East to combine all-sports schools from the wast and the west, splitting into 2 divisions to ease with travel. And such a move wouldn’t be difficult to pull off. In the east, you could have a 6 team division of: Uconn, Rutgers, Temple, USF, UCF, Cincinnati. In the west, assuming Louisville left for the Big 12, you could have Memphis, Houston, SMU, BYU, Boise St., San Diego St.

But for now, it would appear that expansion is less likely. Any moves would be minor and likely just to replace any departing schools. For instance, if Louisville left for the Big 12, Temple could be brought in for football-only with 12 football members, 16 basketball members. If a 2nd school left, perhaps another run at Air Force or UNLV for football only could happen, with Temple joining for all-sports (giving 12 football members and 16 basketball members).

Probability of expanding in the near future: not entirely likely, yet still very possible.

Candidates:
Air Force
Temple
BYU
UNLV
 

 CUSA/MWC Merger

Things really got interesting when the two conferences just on the cusp of BCS status, lost their top members, and then opted to merge. The result is a 15 school all-sports conference with 16 for football. But all indications are that the conference is not done adding schools. You have Temple as a football-only (and perhaps eventually all-sports) candidate. The logic behind that is to expand the conference into stronger media markets, and support nearby ECU and Marshall in the process. You have the previous MWC candidates Utah St. and San Jose St. Utah St. would replace the Salt Lake City market, lost when Utah and BYU left. San Jose St. would provide television access to the populated Bay Area. With no Dallas area schools in the conference, North Texas is a top option. After that, you have other schools that could be options at some point as either part of an expansion to 24 or as replacements. All the other WAC schools fit into that category, such as NMSU, Idaho, UTSA, Texas St. and LA Tech. In the Sunbelt, you have Florida Atlantic and Florida International that could add a Florida presence to the conference after it’s loss of UCF. You also have various FCS schools considering upgrades that could be slotted in such as Appalachian St., Charlotte, Georgia Southern, and Georgia St. Even schools like JMU and Delaware could one day make sense. Recent FBS upgrade UMass would provide access to the Boston market, an ideal partner for Temple is they are brought in. In the Sunbelt, you also have some schools like MTSU and Troy that could gain some attention. And the FCS upgrades might not be limited to the east, where Montana could see the CUSA/MWC merger as their only future option to remain relevant and upgrade.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
North Texas
Temple
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Florida International or Florida Atlantic
UTSA
LA Tech
UMass
Texas St.
Montana
NMSU
Idaho
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
MTSU
Troy
Delaware
JMU
ODU
 

Sun Belt:

The Sun Belt has always seemed to be a conference at risk of losing members. But with the CUSA/MWC merger, and the addition of Karl Benson as commissioner (leaving the WAC), the Sun Belt is expected to make moves of their own. The likely targets will be WAC schools, but the conference will not rule out FCS upgrades.

Probability of expanding in the near future: very possible.

Candidates:
LA Tech
UTSA
Texas St.
NMSU
Texas St.
Appalachian St.
Charlotte
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.

MAC:

The MAC has an will likely always be a regional conference in the Ohio and Michigan area. The only two school likely to move on would be the 2 football only members, Temple and UMass. But as one of the only even somewhat eastern conferences that would accept FCS upgrades, you could see it as a transitional home for schools in the area such as JMU, Delaware, Charlotte, Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and ODU. Note that each of those schools would prefer the SEC, ACC or Big East, but they will not be options. They all would likely want into the CUSA/MWC merger if they upgraded, but even that is not likely. The Sun Belt might have room for 1-2 from the south. But it’s the MAC that would be the only real option, with the conference accepting the basketball scheduling agreement as part of the pact.

Probability of expanding in the near future: unlikely. If FCS schools upgrade, the MAC could show interest.

Candidates: 
JMU
Delaware
Charlotte
Appalachian St.
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
ODU 

WAC:

Really, nothing to add here. The conference lost so many members that they had no choice but to grab FCS upgrades. Just to help on the basketball side, they added Texas-Arlington, Denver and Seattle. If the CUSA/MWC adds multiple WAC schools such as Utah St. and San Jose St., the WAC is over. Right now, LA Tech is lobbying hard to join the CUSA/MWC merger. If they are passed over, they’ll be ringing the doorbell at Sun Belt commissioner Benson’s house…with UTSA, Texas St, and New Mexico St. standing at the door with them. Idaho and NMSU seem to be in the toughest spot, as due to location and markets, Utah St., SJSU, LA Tech, UTSA and Texas St. all seem to be strong candidates to be in either the CUSA/MWC conference or the Sun Belt. Idaho and NMSU might be left out of the mix.

Probability of expanding in the near future: they would love to, but have no school available. They would need to literally beg FCS schools such as Montana, Montana St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland St., Lamar, and SHSU to upgrade.

With Memphis no longer in the mix as they head for the Big East, Conference USA and the Mountain West can now progress with their merger plans. As there appear to be no more pending departures, the two conferences, hoping to find some stability in the form of an alliance or merger, can finally do so without the threat of another school leaving. That is of course assuming that Air Force does indeed opt to remain in the Mountain West and does not join Navy (as well as SDSU and Boise St.) in the Big East for football.

Later this week, the CUSA Board of Directors have planned to meet to discuss all aspects of a Mountain West merger.

On the table include what is the front-runner idea at this point: an all-sports merger. The merger would combine 15 schools for all-sports with Hawaii for football only.

Likely divisions would include:
West: Hawaii*, Fresno St., Nevada, UNLV, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St., Wyoming
East: UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Tulane, USM, UAB, ECU, Marshall

Another option remains to merge for a football alliance, but that would mean that CUSA would need to remain at 8 with no new invites and the Mountain West conference would likely need to add Hawaii as an all-sports member or invite Utah St. as the 8th all-sports member to remain a stable Division 1 conference. Such a situation would leave (2) 8 school conferences for non-football sports and 17 schools for football. This is a less likely scenario to happen versus a full, all-sports merge.

Many will look at the distance between schools and the schools comprising the merged conference and question the move. But it’s the strength in numbers that remain the primary driver behind the merge. A single voice will do more to keep the member schools in the conversations with the current BCS conferences, while as two separate entities, the political power will be minimal. With 16 schools from 13 states, the conference will at least have political power behind it, since it will not have the best media markets to help boost the television revenue.

For a glimpse as to what this conference would look like, here’s a map:

View CollegeSportsInfo.com CUSA / Mountain West Conference in a larger map
 

But that has all changed. Per Brett McMurphy of CBS,  Memphis & Big East are in final negotiations for the school to join for all-sports in 2013, with an announcement coming perhaps as soon as this week.

The addition of Memphis is coming hand-in-hand with the most recent news that Louisville is all but set to join the Big 12 as it’s 11th member, further depleting the Big East football membership.

With Pittsburgh and Syracuse leaving, the “football moves” previously made by the Big East apparently still required some offsetting on the basketball side. The departures of the two basketball powerhouses along with West Virginia, will leave the Big East as a less powerful basketball conference. But with the strong basketball addition of Memphis, there remains hope that the damage from the departures will be minimal.

The addition of Memphis will bring the basketball total to 17 schools. It is unknown what the exact plans are for football divisions within the conference as an argument can be made that the strength of the conference is all in the west now, and that a pure divisional setup (which was the initial plan) might be less balanced. But with travel concerns already in mind, balance might not be the key factor.

Membership for 2014, when we know for sure Pitt, Syracuse and WVU will all be gone, will include:

Likely divisional splits could include:
East: Cincinnati, UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, South Florida, UCF
West: Houston, SMU, Boise State, San Diego State, Navy, Memphis

For basketball, there will be 17 members with Cincinnati, UConn, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, UCF, Houston, SMU, Memphis, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Providence and DePaul.

There has also been some buzz of late that Villanova would be interested in upgrading to FBS and join the Big East as the 14th member should Air Force join as the 13th. Air Force was one of the initial targets by the Big East but the school initially passed on the idea. But with Navy now set to join the Big East, there might be more of an incentive.

The likely departure of Memphis from CUSA might also increase the chance of the expected CUSA/Mountain West merger. Both conference have seen some of their top media market schools leave recently with UCF (Orlando), Houston, SMU (Dallas) and now Memphis leaving CUSA while national powers Boise St. and TCU leaves the Mountain West as well as the loss of the San Diego market.

A potential merger might not leave too many television dollars for the remaining lineup:
East: ECU, Marshall, UAB, USM, Tulane, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP
West: Colorado St., Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nevada, Fresno St., Hawaii (football only)

The alternatives to a full-merger between CUSA and the Mountain West remain setting up a football-only partnership, which would allow each conference to remain at 8 members for non-football sports (MWC would need to invite Hawaii for all-sports). Both conferences would have a somewhat lackluster pool of candidates if they sought to add members with Utah St., San Jose St., Idaho the likely MWC candidates with UTSA, LA Tech, North Texas, Texas St and other Sun Belt schools as CUSA candidates.

The Mountain West also faces the possibility that Air Force will still leave for the Big East.

The Southland is dealing with some losses of their own with UTA, UTSA and Texas St. all leaving for the WAC. Oral Roberts was brought in as a basketball replacement for UTA and Houston Baptist next with their hopes of adding football. But while

the lack of a football program would seem to be a problem for UTPA, the Southland’s seeking of balance could be the key, potential membership as the reward.

UTPA membership in the Southland has it’s obstacles. Both University of Incarnate Word and Albilene Christian have sought membership in the SLC, and both sponsor football.

Navy had passed on the idea of joining in previous years, opting for it’s more national schedule. But with the addition of San Diego St., a prominent city for Navy, along with the additions of Houston (and SMU, UCF), Navy has changed their tune.

Navy will replace WVU, giving the conference 11 members. Big East officials hope that the addition of Navy will open the door for Air Force to join as the 12th member, allowing the conference to split into divisions such as: SDSU, Boise St., Air Force, Houston, SMU, Louisville in the West and Uconn, Rutgers, Navy, Cincinnati, UCF, USF and host a conference championship game. Other members that could join as the 12th member include Temple, ECU or Memphis, all which would be willing to join for football-only.

Ranking-School-Value-Conference

#1) Texas: $129 million (Big 12)

#2) Notre Dame: $112 million (Independent)

#3) Penn State: $100 million (Big Ten)

#4) LSU: $96 million (SEC)

#5) Michigan: $94 million (Big Ten)

#6) Alabama: $93 million (SEC)

#7) Georgia: $90 million (SEC)

#8) Arkansas: $89 million (SEC)

#9) Auburn: $88 million (SEC)

#10) Oklahoma: $87 million (Big 12)

#11) Florida: $86 million (SEC)

#12) Tennessee: $82 million (SEC)

#13) Ohio State: $78 million (Big Ten)

#14) Nebraska: $77 million (Big Ten)

#15) Wisconsin: $67 million (Big Ten)

#16) South Carolina: $64 million (SEC)

#17) Texas A&M: $63 million (SEC)

#18) USC: $62 million (Pac-12)

#19) Michigan State: $59 million (Big Ten)

#20) Iowa: $48 million (Big Ten)

By Conference:

Big 12:

#1) Texas: $129 million (Big 12)

#10) Oklahoma: $87 million (Big 12)

Big Ten:

#3) Penn State: $100 million (Big Ten)

#5) Michigan: $94 million (Big Ten)

#13) Ohio State: $78 million (Big Ten)

#14) Nebraska: $77 million (Big Ten)

#15) Wisconsin: $67 million (Big Ten)

#19) Michigan State: $59 million (Big Ten)

#20) Iowa: $48 million (Big Ten)

Independent:

#2) Notre Dame: $112 million (Independent)

Pac-12:

#18) USC: $62 million (Pac-12)

SEC:

#4) LSU: $96 million (SEC)

#6) Alabama: $93 million (SEC)

#7) Georgia: $90 million (SEC)

#8) Arkansas: $89 million (SEC)

#9) Auburn: $88 million (SEC)

#11) Florida: $86 million (SEC)

#12) Tennessee: $82 million (SEC)

#16) South Carolina: $64 million (SEC)

#17) Texas A&M: $63 million (SEC)

The rationale is understandable: the Big East has made all these moves of late to support football…and they have come at the expense of the basketball schools. UCF, SMU and Houston do little to improve the Big East basketball profile (that also added non-basketball powerhouse USF 6 years ago)…the same Big East that is losing powers Syracuse, Pitt and even a strong WVU program.

The basketball schools seemed poised to take the beating and admit whomever the remaining football schools wanted since it meant keeping the branding advantage of an all-sports conference as well as keeping UConn happy. Uconn is still a threat to leave for the ACC as soon as an invitation comes…as would Rutgers. Louisville insiders feel it’s just a matter of time before they will be in the Big 12 with WVU and a 12th school.

If any or all of these movements happen, the Big East basketball schools will be stuck with the likes of USF, UCF, SMU and Houston and that is hardly a powerful basketball conference.

Some of the schools you’ll see mentioned in this proposal will be Xavier, Temple and Butler. Don’t be surprised to see others like St. Louis, Dayton and perhaps even Creighton is indeed this is to have a “mid-west” flare. The principle seems to be that if these 2 schools could get enough outside support, they might be able to get the other non-football schools to join as well. If a larger eastern push were needed, schools like Richmond, ODU, UMass, Charlotte, and others would likely be considered to some extent.

If you’re wondering what this new conference might look like:

Providence
St. Johns
Seton Hall
Villanova
Temple
Richmond
Xavier
St. Louis
DePaul
Marquette
*Notre Dame,Dayton, or other options could be considered if the conference were to be at 12 members.

But when Liberty announced they were putting together a study to look into upgrading to FBS, the hiring (specifically, Gill accepting the job) made sense.

More…

NKU will pay the Atlantic Sun $200,000 over the span of 5 years and will join in 2012, as the first year of their upgrade to Division 1 athletics.