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PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:44 am 
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Starting a single thread on big days to discuss everything in one spot. Feel free to add things both here AND in the specific conference forums: ... t-updates/

So here’s where we are at for Monday, September 19, 2011:

* As we know from yesterday, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will be joining the ACC

* Per sources, the ACC move came as a shock to the Big 12 schools, notably Texas, and has put the primary focus by Texas to be to join the Pac-12 (with Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech) or to rebuild the Big 12.

* Per reports, the Texas and ACC discussions HAD been solely about Texas joining for non-football sports and going independent in football.

* Notre Dame has been another ACC option for non-football sports. The idea was to expand to 14 for football with Syracuse and Pitt, and to bring in Texas AND Notre Dame for non-football sports. The addition of Texas without Notre Dame for non-football sports is not high on the ACC wishlist.

* Per sources, the ACC is showing some flexibility with Texas joining with Texas Tech for all-sports.

* Per sources, the ACC is not willing to be flexible in regards to the Texas LHN, meaning the network revenues would need to be distributed evenly to all ACC members (making membership in the ACC less appealing to Texas).

* Texas had similar interest in the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has no flexibility in regards to the Texas LHN.

* Per sources, the Pac-12 will almost certainly expand to 14 with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* Pac-12 expansion to 16 would be likely approved by the Pac-12 presidents if Texas agrees to the Pac-12 TV demands in regards to the LHN.

* Texas is willing to roll-up the LHN into the Pac-12 TV regional model, but the holdup is in the distribution of revenue. The Pac-12 is holding to it’s demands that a school like Texas will not be permitted to keep more revenue and would need to put that into the “Pac-12 kitty” to be shared by all members. The rationale is that there are Pac-12 TV regional networks in places like Los Angeles that will generate more revenue that say, “Mountain” (Colorado/Utah) yet USC and UCLA have agreed to split the revenue evenly…so Texas would be required to as well if a power like USC is.

* According to Pac-12 writer Jon Wilner, Missouri IS indeed a target for the Pac-12.

* Kansas is a Pac-12 target to a lesser extent.

* Kansas and Missouri would only be considered for the Pac-12 IF Texas passes on the Pac-12 TV demands.

* The Pac-12 is considering a 4 school “Pod” system for alignment so that schools aren’t grouped into hard 8 and 8 divisions. The pods being the preference because each school wants access to California and schools like Arizona and ASU fear being cut off forever if grouped with Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, Colorado and Utah.

* Missouri and Kansas would be part of a pod with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

* The very mention and consideration of Missouri and Kansas as potential Pac-16 options are to put MORE pressure on Texas to take it or leave it (regarding Pac-12 offer). Because if Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Missouri and Kansas leave the Big 12, and Texas has then the ONLY option to rebuild the Big 12, Texas would be forced to be in a rebuilt Big 12 conference with a core membership of: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. Even if they pulled a coup and brought in Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, TCU…it would be a vastly inferior TV product…especially with the risk that Rutgers and Uconn could still head to the ACC, WVU to SEC.

* The Big East basketball schools are considering a split from the Big East. The fear being that with the Big East down to 7 members, they will need to expand and the likely candidates would be less desirable basketball schools (since the Big East might need to bring in Baylor, Kansas St. and Iowa St. to get Missouri and Kansas without lawsuits from the other 3 mentioned schools.

* The Big East basketball schools are also positioning themselves so that if the core football schools leave for the Big 12, the non-football schools would not be forced to remain with less desirable basketball programs like USF and TCU.

* If the Big East non-football schools did split, they would likely target expansion candidates to 9 or 10 total members. Schools considered at the top of the list would include Xavier, Richmond, St. Louis, Butler, Dayton.

* There have been no developments with the SEC. TAMU has not officially joined until the Big 12 determines it’s own future and there are no threats of member lawsuits. If the Big 12 falls due to a Pac-16 creation, then the SEC would formally bring in Texas A&M for #13. There would be no rush for a #14, but if the Big 12 fell, Missouri would likely apply for the 14th spot, potentially even if the Pac-12 invited them, despite Missouri preferring Big Ten membership. WVU is also considered by many to be a candidate, but has much less to offer financially compared to Missouri in regards to TV market penetration.

* Over the next week of two, we could possible see:

Pac 14: Oklahoma & OSU joining
Pac 16: Oklahoma, OSU, Texas & Texas Tech joining
Pac-16: OU, OSU, Kansas and Missouri joining
ACC 14/16: Texas and Notre Dame joining for non-football sports
ACC 14/16: Notre Dame and Villanova joining for non-football sports
ACC 16: Texas and Texas Tech joining
ACC 16: Uconn and Rutgers joining
SEC 13: Texas A&M joining (confirmed)
SEC 14: TAMU and Missouri joining
SEC 14: TAMU and WVU joining
Big 12 Rebuilt: Texas, TTech, Kansas, Missouri, Baylor and Iowa St. adding 4 new members such as Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, UConn, BYU, TCU, Houston
Big East Reboot: 7 remaining schools bring in 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 football/20 school basketball conference
Big East Split: 7 remaining football schools bring in all 5 remaining Big 12 schools for 12 school all-sports conference
Big 12 Reboot: 5 remaining Big 12 schools bring in 7 remaining (or less is some leave) for reboot of Big 12 conference (would allow football schools to all leave Big East, causing a split from basketball schools)
Big East as Basketball-Only: 7 remaining Big East schools, all basketball members, bring in 3 other non-football schools, keeping the Big East brand.

That’s it so far…but it’s only 12:00ET today.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:34 am 
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Updated for Tuersday, 9/20/11: ... t-updates/
* In addition to the Big East non-football schools discussing a split, the potential Big 12 remnants (should Pac-16 occur) and the remaining Big East football schools are considering a merger. There are multiple scenarios on the table:
1) Big East hybrid brings in all remaining Big 12 schools wich is expected to be a maximum of 5...would give Big East 12 for football and 20 for all-sports.
2) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big East umbrella without basketball-only schools
3) Big East football 7 merge with Big 12 5 under Big 12 banner (assuming the better Big 12 bowls for the time being)

* As mentioned on this site earlier, Villanova did officially apply to the ACC. Mentality is they don't want to be left behind. Nova would upgrade to FBS football if need be, but would also love to join as a non-football member should a 15th school like Notre Dame join for non-football sports.

* The Big East has claimed that they will hold Pitt and Syracuse to the conference contract, meaning both schools will need to wait 27 months before leaving for the ACC. That's 3 lame duck seasons and a $5 million exit fee. You can bet that the Big East and ACC lawyers will be negotiating, trying to find a way to get both schools out early for a set fee. ACC schools would likely contribute to the cause since the sooner they get those schools in, the sooner they can renegotiate their TV contracts by adding the Pitt and Syracuse value.

* Note that the Big East TV contract is up for renewal soon. It's unlikely that networks will be willing to pay as much knowing that both schools and perhaps others will be leaving soon. So it would be wise for the Big East to try to milk the ACC for extra money via exit fees in return to letting the schools out early.

* If the Big East is planning to hold exiting schools to the 27 months, then one shouldn't be shocked if the ACC invited Uconn and Rutgers sooner than later as they would need to plan 3 years in advance due to exit dates. Adding those 2 schools, 4 total, would give the ACC the majority of the markets/schools that the proposed new Big East TV contract would include.

* As expected, the Big East basketball school coaches want the hybrid to remain as for now, it means they compete against Uconn, Louisville, etc.

* The Mountain West has had preliminary discussions internally (and feeling out the school) about asking TCU if they'd like to remain in the Mountain West. If the Big East were to lose Uconn and Rutgers to the ACC and say Missouri was not part of the Big East/Big 12 merger, TCU might be wise to consider remaining in the MWC. Key will be if the MWC can get a BCS autobid, something the Big East/B12 merger will likely have. But if the group is: TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, USF and 1-3 CUSA schools, TCU might still find this group to be more appealing than remain/returning to the MWC.

* The Mountain West and CUSA are again discussing a football-only merger. The idea would be for the 2 separate conferences to combine their TV contracts for football, possibly staging some sort of championship game of champions. Note that the primary motive of the merger will be to gain a BCS automatic berth by claiming that it's 1 spot for 24 schools, taking political heat off the BCS as it would give BCS access to those 24 schools.

* MWC might try to get BYU back if the conference had a BCS AQ.

* ECU, a school expected to once again be left out of the conference realignment shuffle by the BCS conferences, released a statement you'd expect from the former Iraqi Minister of Propaganda, proclaiming ECU is actively involved in what is happening now. That is not true if by "involved" they mean they have BCS options on their own.

* Both Oklahoma and Texas have granted authority to their school presidents to pursue Pac-12 membership. For Texas though, the regents would need to be back involved if a formal move to the Pac-12 were recommended by their president.

* Oklahoma made it clear that they are less interested in rebuilding the Big 12 due to the threat of litigation by Big 12 members, claim such threats should not be the basis of goodwill if trying to keep a conference member from leaving.

* The ACC has had discussions with Texas regarding all-sports membership, but one of the reported issues is that if Texas joined for all-sports (which is what the ACC seems to be demanding), the ACC would prefer Texas and Kansas, NOT Texas and Texas Tech.

* Uconn feels it has a better than average chance of joining the ACC.

* SEC is rumored to have less interest in WVU as previously thought.

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