Driver 8 wrote:
A fascinating article from the NY Times that speaks to a frequent question debated on this site -- how big is the market for a given team?http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/?emc=eta1
The requisite grains of salt: I am not claiming that this analysis is 100% correct, the authors of the blog are not claiming this analysis is 100% correct, and (if you take a closer look at the websites from which the data was obtained) the data sources don't claim to be 100% correct. So it's reasonable to argue that the absolute numbers presented here don't have nearly the precision implied by the tables. But, as a concept, it all looks reasonable, and I'm willing to believe that the "real numbers" (whatever that means) are not too far off from these numbers, so I'm willing to take these at face value as a way to inform our discussions about market sizes.
So, in that spirit, here are some things that caught my eye:
- If Nebraska is considered to be a home-run addition to the Big Ten, I don't see why Missouri wouldn't be considered to be a stand-up triple. This analysis estimates that they have more fans than five other Big Ten programs, and they aren't that much below Nebraska.
- The argument that Penn State dominates the Pennsylvania market, including the city of Pittsburgh, is pretty well substantiated by this analysis, but it's not like Pitt is exactly chopped liver. The ACC's gain is the Big Ten's loss, from this analysis.
- Of all the "powerhouse" programs, the one whose (estimated) fanbase was surprising low to me was Florida State. While having the (estimated) 38th largest fan base is nothing to sneeze at (just ask most of the Pac 12 schools), I would have guessed their fanbase would have been larger. (And, of course, it very well could be, if there are any inaccuracies in the analysis, but again I'm just taking these at face value.)
- On the flipside, the program that was surprisingly high to me was Rutgers. Sure, being in the New York metro area is a plus, but I never would have pegged them for having the 32nd largest fanabase in FBS.
- Among the non-AQ programs, props to Wyoming -- I would have put them down at the bottom of the barrel, but this analysis puts them near the top of the MWC.
I'd be interested to hear what other folks think about this.
Regards, Driver 8
Nice find but seriously fllawedEXAMPLES
1. Rutgers has more fans in NYC than Syracuse, Uconn and Notre Dame combined.
2. Troy more than Louisville, Cincinnati, SMU, Houston, Baylor
3. UCF more than Boise, TCU, Kansas State, and half the PAC 12, and all the Mountain West
4. Arkansas State more the Army, Navy, Air Force
Also see a lot twice as many FSU shirts nationally than Georgia Tech, not the other way around.