Aside from the MWC - I think every non-BCS conference gets a bit of a shake-up. Some may get all out new line-ups. Some will lose a team or two - or gain one or two.
I agree the way C-USA changes will effect, not only the SBC, but the WAC and MAC too. That said, I can't see C-USA adding teams from the BigEast. Rather, I see the BigEast FB schools starting their own conference and inviting whomever they wish to join. It avoids all the hassles of kicking partial members out and even kicking weak full members out.
BigEast FB Teams
I read that the BigEast can not vote the 6 BB schools out - but they can leave (and oddly, take the name and NCAA BB money with them as they do). Whether they take all 6 or just 3, 4 or 5. I believe they take all 6 - realizing they don't have the pull to retain their BCS status anyway. I think they'll try and create a geographically sane conference that is as strong as possible - which means no gulf state teams.
Depending on how many teams they want to have in their conference, they may take Louisville and Cincinnati - or perhaps, Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and Marshall. If they want to go to 12 teams - then I think they'll make a play for the UCF-USF duo.
OPTION I (8 teams): UConn, Rutgers, WestVirginia, VaTech, Pitt, Temple, Louisville, Cincinnati
OPTION II (10 teams): UConn, Rutgers, WestVirginia, VaTech, Pitt, Temple, Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU, Marshall
OPTION III (12 teams - 2 divisions):
North: UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, Cincinnati, Temple, Louisville
South: USF, UCF, ECU, VaTech, WestVirginia, Marshall
Thus the MAC loses 0-2 teams, C-USA loses 2 to 4.
The MAC (NoIll, BallSt, WestMich, CentMich, EastMich, Toledo, BGSU, Miami(OH), OhioU, Akron, KentST, Buffalo) does not need to add teams to survive and at 12 teams - all in the Great Lakes area - they are already geographically sane. If they lose teams to I-AA, the best candidate for replacing teams in the MAC is MTSU.
C-USA's decision depends on how many teams they lose. No matter how many teams they lose to the former BigEast FB schools - they'll lose Marquette, DePaul, St.Louis and Charlotte as they leave for some other conference (maybe to join the BigEast BB schools) - but it may not be right away. If they lose Cincinnati, ECU and Louisville, I would guess Army would go of its own volition - since there will be no teams anywhere near it still in the conference.
If they lose just Louisville and Cincinnati (Army may still leave) - and C-USA adds Marshall and UCF (so the MAC loses them anyway). The WAC-east teams just can't offer football programs or new territory like Marshall and UCF can. La-Tech (the only one of the 4 WAC-east teams that compares in football), is redundant territory for C-USA. The SBC teams are mostly too shaky yet to be preferred to either Marshall of UCF.
If C-USA loses Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and USF (and therefore Army would have left, and Marshall and UCF would be unavailable), then they have only 6 teams left (TCU, Houston, Tulane, SoMiss, UAB and Memphis). C-USA adds the 4 WAC-east teams: Tulsa, SMU, Rice and La-Tech. They may add two more teams to get to 12 teams - or just stay at 10. If they add two more they take from the eastern SBC's teams: ArkSt, La-Laf, La-Mon, TroySt and MTSU.
EAST: Tulane, La-Tech, SoMiss, UAB, Memphis, TroySt or MTSU
WEST: TCU, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa, ArkSt, La-Mon or La-Laf
If the WAC losses it's eastern members to C-USA, then the WAC raids the western SBC. Without La-Tech, SMU, Tulsa and Rice, they are a true Western conference again (Hawaii, FresnoSt, SJSU, Nevada, BoiseSt, UTEP) - but they need more teams. They add western SBC teams: UtahSt, Idaho, NMSU and UNT to get back to 10 teams. At 10 teams they can withstand a MWC expansion of up to 2 teams (BoiseSt, FresnoSt, Hawaii, and Nevada are all attractive additions - and if it weren't for political blackballing, UtahSt would be on that list too).
The SBC could be gone entirely, have a few teams or be virtually untouched - depending on C-USA (could take 0-4 of: ArkSt, La-Laf, La-Mon, TroySt, or MTSU) and the WAC (could take 0-4 of: UNT, NMSU, UtahSt and Idaho). They most likely will need to add at least a few more teams to remain a conference. Some could come from I-AA Southern or SWAC teams moving up and/or their own I-AA ranks.
Last edited by nert on Sun May 18, 2003 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.