The only Scenario I can see that would leave the Sun Belt a 1-A football conference is if C-USA gobbles up the remaining Big East schools.

Any other takes/opinions?

Aside from the MWC - I think every non-BCS conference gets a bit of a shake-up. Some may get all out new line-ups. Some will lose a team or two - or gain one or two.

I agree the way C-USA changes will effect, not only the SBC, but the WAC and MAC too. That said, I can't see C-USA adding teams from the BigEast. Rather, I see the BigEast FB schools starting their own conference and inviting whomever they wish to join. It avoids all the hassles of kicking partial members out and even kicking weak full members out.

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BigEast FB Teams
I read that the BigEast can not vote the 6 BB schools out - but they can leave (and oddly, take the name and NCAA BB money with them as they do). Whether they take all 6 or just 3, 4 or 5. I believe they take all 6 - realizing they don't have the pull to retain their BCS status anyway. I think they'll try and create a geographically sane conference that is as strong as possible - which means no gulf state teams.

Depending on how many teams they want to have in their conference, they may take Louisville and Cincinnati - or perhaps, Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and Marshall. If they want to go to 12 teams - then I think they'll make a play for the UCF-USF duo.

OPTION I (8 teams): UConn, Rutgers, WestVirginia, VaTech, Pitt, Temple, Louisville, Cincinnati

OPTION II (10 teams): UConn, Rutgers, WestVirginia, VaTech, Pitt, Temple, Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU, Marshall

OPTION III (12 teams - 2 divisions):
North: UConn, Rutgers, Pitt, Cincinnati, Temple, Louisville
South: USF, UCF, ECU, VaTech, WestVirginia, Marshall

Thus the MAC loses 0-2 teams, C-USA loses 2 to 4.

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MAC
The MAC (NoIll, BallSt, WestMich, CentMich, EastMich, Toledo, BGSU, Miami(OH), OhioU, Akron, KentST, Buffalo) does not need to add teams to survive and at 12 teams - all in the Great Lakes area - they are already geographically sane. If they lose teams to I-AA, the best candidate for replacing teams in the MAC is MTSU.

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C-USA
C-USA's decision depends on how many teams they lose. No matter how many teams they lose to the former BigEast FB schools - they'll lose Marquette, DePaul, St.Louis and Charlotte as they leave for some other conference (maybe to join the BigEast BB schools) - but it may not be right away. If they lose Cincinnati, ECU and Louisville, I would guess Army would go of its own volition - since there will be no teams anywhere near it still in the conference.

If they lose just Louisville and Cincinnati (Army may still leave) - and C-USA adds Marshall and UCF (so the MAC loses them anyway). The WAC-east teams just can't offer football programs or new territory like Marshall and UCF can. La-Tech (the only one of the 4 WAC-east teams that compares in football), is redundant territory for C-USA. The SBC teams are mostly too shaky yet to be preferred to either Marshall of UCF.

If C-USA loses Louisville, Cincinnati, ECU and USF (and therefore Army would have left, and Marshall and UCF would be unavailable), then they have only 6 teams left (TCU, Houston, Tulane, SoMiss, UAB and Memphis). C-USA adds the 4 WAC-east teams: Tulsa, SMU, Rice and La-Tech. They may add two more teams to get to 12 teams - or just stay at 10. If they add two more they take from the eastern SBC's teams: ArkSt, La-Laf, La-Mon, TroySt and MTSU.

EAST: Tulane, La-Tech, SoMiss, UAB, Memphis, TroySt or MTSU
WEST: TCU, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulsa, ArkSt, La-Mon or La-Laf

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WAC
If the WAC losses it's eastern members to C-USA, then the WAC raids the western SBC. Without La-Tech, SMU, Tulsa and Rice, they are a true Western conference again (Hawaii, FresnoSt, SJSU, Nevada, BoiseSt, UTEP) - but they need more teams. They add western SBC teams: UtahSt, Idaho, NMSU and UNT to get back to 10 teams. At 10 teams they can withstand a MWC expansion of up to 2 teams (BoiseSt, FresnoSt, Hawaii, and Nevada are all attractive additions - and if it weren't for political blackballing, UtahSt would be on that list too).

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SunBelt
The SBC could be gone entirely, have a few teams or be virtually untouched - depending on C-USA (could take 0-4 of: ArkSt, La-Laf, La-Mon, TroySt, or MTSU) and the WAC (could take 0-4 of: UNT, NMSU, UtahSt and Idaho). They most likely will need to add at least a few more teams to remain a conference. Some could come from I-AA Southern or SWAC teams moving up and/or their own I-AA ranks.

According to the Tallahassee Democrat, Florida A&M is looking into moving up to I-A as early as 2004; if they do, then they'd definitely be headed for the Sun Belt, if that conference is still around. It'd help that conference survive by cutting travel costs, since with ten teams in football, the Eastern teams would have to make the trip to Moscow and Logan less frequently, and vice versa.

There is another possibility that may thrrow a wrench into the equasion. What if the Big Ten +1 decides to take take Pitt? No disrespect intended, but I honestly can not see W Va. & Va. Tech in a league with USF, UCF, Marshall, ect. I believe hell will freeze over before you see WVa & Marshall in the same conference.

I can see something like W Va, VPI, ECU, Cinn, Louisville, Memphis, S Miss, and Pitt (if they stay) in something of a rebirth of the old Metro conference.

IMO, Rutgers & Temple are on the outside looking in here. I think their best shot is to get together with Army & Navy - football only, & U Conn and convince Delaware and U Mass to step up to 1-A. They could retain the Big East name and have a basketball league that still retains most of the Big East power players while adding A-10 headliners Temple & U Mass.

Ten team basketball league: U Conn, Delaware, Georgetown, U Mass, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, St John's, Temple, & Villanova (another possible 1-A move-up).

The A-10 would be left with ten teams.

What a novel concept! ;D
Next thing you are going to tell me is that the Big 10 will have 10 teams.
What marketing genius decides to keep these conference names when they no longer apply? ;)

Sunbelt Survival is getting better everyday it seems they may be the ones who come out on top in the long run. If they get rid of Louisiana-Monroe

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

This guy is awesome if all commish's was like him. College Football Would be Great.


Question (Chaz Smith): I have been a fan of the Sun Belt since its days as a basketball conference when UAB was a member and Coach Bartow was at UAB. Is it true that New Orleans is going to start up a football program? I read in the Daytona Beach News, Florida-International is pushing for 1-A and Sun Belt membership. As for Western Kentucky why can't they move up to Division 1-A in all sports? What are the chances of getting Alabama-Birmingham back in the conference?

Commissioner Wright Waters: Chaz, I do not see UNO adding football in the near future, there are just too many issues that have priority there. Maybe somewhere down the road. You make an interesting point about Western Kentucky and it speaks to the marketing/branding issue of IA. Western Kentucky is an outstanding institution that is doing some exciting things with their athletic program. I think there is a time in the future when they will approach the subject but right now they have some other issues to deal with. I am great admire of Watson Brown and what he has accomplished at UAB, certainly the local rivalries with Troy State, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky would be something everyone could enjoy.

Question (Bruce Rabon): Please don't sit back and wait on the Big East. Go ahead and develop a 16-team football conference. Combine with the C-USA teams that are going to be left behind. It would look like this:

Pioneer Division
Southern region teams

Tulane
UL Lafayette
UL Monroe
Southern Miss

Eastern region teams

East Carolina
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Troy State

Frontier Division
Western region teams

North Texas
TCU
Houston
Memphis

Northern region teams

New Mexico State
Utah State
Idaho
Arkansas State



A. Each team plays the other seven teams within their division; B. The first Saturday in December the first place teams in each region meets in Memphis or New Orleans to play an elimination game; C. On Thursday on the same field the Sun Belt all-conference game can be played with the coach of the third place team as head coach and two coaches voted by head coaches will assist. All the players that make all-conference will be invited except those playing for the championship. However every team will have at least one player on the team (even if they are not voted all conference). D. On the second Saturday in Dec. the Sun Belt Championship will be played.

What do you think?

Commissioner Wright Waters: Bruce, it is an interesting plan, but you have overlooked the need to maintain or enhance the balance of power within IA. We need all the Group of Five Conferences to remain competitive and to grow in statue. Good news, we are probably working together now better than any time in recent memory.

Question (Bruce Rabon): Please don't sit back and wait on the Big East. Go ahead and develop a 16-team football conference. Combine with the C-USA teams that are going to be left behind. It would look like this:

Pioneer Division
Southern region teams

Tulane
UL Lafayette
UL Monroe
Southern Miss

Eastern region teams

East Carolina
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Troy State

Frontier Division
Western region teams

North Texas
TCU
Houston
Memphis

Northern region teams

New Mexico State
Utah State
Idaho
Arkansas State



A. Each team plays the other seven teams within their division; B. The first Saturday in December the first place teams in each region meets in Memphis or New Orleans to play an elimination game; C. On Thursday on the same field the Sun Belt all-conference game can be played with the coach of the third place team as head coach and two coaches voted by head coaches will assist. All the players that make all-conference will be invited except those playing for the championship. However every team will have at least one player on the team (even if they are not voted all conference). D. On the second Saturday in Dec. the Sun Belt Championship will be played.

What do you think?

Commissioner Wright Waters: Bruce, it is an interesting plan, but you have overlooked the need to maintain or enhance the balance of power within IA. We need all the Group of Five Conferences to remain competitive and to grow in statue. Good news, we are probably working together now better than any time in recent memory.

Yes I like the guy too. I see the Sunbelt when the smoke clears and the dust settles to be a Great Conference with Great Rivals to go along with it.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

1. The Sunbelt needs to get rid of schools with no football. Invite New and up in comers ie FIU, FAU, and Florida A&M.

2. Get rid of the Out West Teams Idaho, Utah State and New Mexico St. let those teams go to the WAC/New SWC

3. If and When the CUSA folds invite UAB, Tulane, USM, Memphis, South Florida and Central Florida from the MAC.

Army has left the CUSA, Louisville and Cincinnati is on their way to the Big East.

East Carolina is either going to ACC or Big East.

TCU and Houston could end up anywhere from the WAC to the MWC or even a new SWC.

4. Teams like South Alabama, Western Kentucky, and UNO invest in them for football teams.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

The Sunbelts new song I will survive. No but seriously it seems this conference with all the rumors is getting stronger or is it me.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

I'd be patient on this one, fbgod. SunBelt may very well walk away the big winner by virtue of doing nothing and picking up the pieces. Then again, it also has the least to offer right now in terms of bowl ties and TV money, so its bigger schools (North Texas, MTSU, NMSU) could just as easily be lured away by CUSA or WAC as they try to save themselves.

The WAC can have Idaho NMSU and Utah St. but I figure the rest will stay. The Sunbelt could pick x-cusa schools if they decide to go their on way. The WAC could be splitted into with mountain and central divisions. BTW why are they going after tcu when the left just 2 years ago does anyone know.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

The CUSA, largely through basketball, offered a better financial arrangement: Easier travel, more TV $ and better bowl ties. CUSA was also actively moving toward a conference championship and had a fairly bright future. Particularly given that Hawaii and Fresno St. were only just beginning to show signs of what they'd become. Or so I surmise.