If Louisville and Cincinnati leave C-USA (for anything but a BCS invite) then Memphis will undoubtedly go with them. Those three will stick together unless one is invited to the BCS (which I don't see happening).
There is no way Army would stay in a conference with only one member ANYWHERE near it (ECU) - so they would likely move their FB with the more northern schools. Navy could then join because there would be no conflict with a conference championship game - adding another attendence/TV powerhouse to the line-up.
Temple needs a new home for all-sports soon and ties in very nicely with the Military schools geographically.
Marshall (another eastern/northern school) would love to jump from the MAC to a stronger FB conference (which this would be) and it's addition makes this a very attractive TV conference for FB.
UCF is released from their MAC contract if Marshall leaves and would give the conference a warm weather spot for a Bowl game.
If they can get ECU (which would be the only C-USA FB team remaining that is east of the Appalachians) then you have a very good little FB conference.
Then if Charlotte jumps to join the other BB schools from C-USA and neighboring ECU - then you have a VERY good BB conference too.
Now they need only one more full member to be a full fledged I-A conference - and any team from the MAC (Toledo or Miami-Ohio) would jump at a chance to join - or perhaps MTSU or USF.
FB and BB(8): Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, ECU, Marshall, Temple, UCF and either Toledo, Miami-Ohio, Western Michigan, MTSU or USF
FB only(2): Army, Navy
non-FB only (4): DePaul, Marquette, Charlotte, St. Louis
It trades C-USA FB powerhouses TCU and Southern Miss for Marshall, UCF and whatever they determine is the next best FB team from the MAC, C-USA or SBC - but also sheds C-USA FB attendence weaklings like Houston, UAB, Tulane for better attended UCF, Marshall and Navy.
The FB strength is probably comparable to the current C-USA line-up, but is much better attendence wise - BUT - that's a better and smaller BB conference than C-USA is right now - with more reasonable travel.
Memphis can speak for themselves, but, imo, there is no way they join that league. They move from a southern team to a northern team. Yes, for baskets they'd like cincy and lou - for everything else, they southern alternative is preferable. Speaking of attendance weaklings in 2001 (latest I have available) Tulane outdrew WESTERN MICHIGAN, UCF, Miami O, Temple, MSTSU, and the rest of the "Weaklings" all outdrew Miami O, Temple, and MTSU. And no way does UCF pick that scenario - they'd stay with the choice down south. Cincy would probably prefer that; maybe ECU, but I doubt it. Army has no one close to them as it is and the whole point of them joining c-usa was that they had military bases all over the country.