Questions abound about ACC's surprise move

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By Andy Katz
ESPN.com


The ACC's reported stunning move to invite Miami and Virginia Tech to go to an 11-team conference raises a host of questions that won't be easily answered by an official announcement from the league Wednesday:

What happens next?
Under the ACC bylaws, the conference has to visit Virginia Tech for a site survey and continue official dialogue with the two schools (they already visited Miami). Miami and Virginia Tech have to deliberate and decide if they want to accept.

Will Miami and Virginia Tech accept the offer?
Miami wanted to join the ACC with Boston College and Syracuse because the Hurricanes don't want to lose their trips to the Northeast to appease an alumni base. Miami also didn't buy into the expansion plan for an 11-team league without a football championship game and the expected revenue that would come from that deal. The Big Ten, which has 11 members, doesn't have a football championship game so there is no reason to believe the NCAA would automatically change the rule to allow a conference with fewer than 12 teams to hold an event.

If the ACC did have 11 teams then the question remains, how would the divisions be divided? One with six and one with five would lead to an imbalanced schedule and the failure to crown a true champion.

Miami has to decide if the Big East has gone too far in its comments and with a lawsuit before opting to return. But the Hurricanes might find the money is a wash and simply wants to get out of the Big East.

Personal relationships would also be burned. Miami president Donna Shalala is a close friend of Syracuse chancellor Buzz Shaw. Leaving Syracuse behind could leave scars in the relationship.

Virginia Tech would be in the awkward position of joining a conference that it is a plaintiff against in a lawsuit with four other Big East members. The Hokies would take a public relations hit as being hypocrites if it were to immediately join the ACC. Virginia Tech is only in this position because its rival Virginia was pressured into voting for the Hokies.

What happens to men's basketball with 11 teams?
The product is diluted. The ACC would be like the Big Ten and have no-play games during the season. The ACC coaches were willing to go from 16 to 18-league games if the conference added just Miami. But the ACC wouldn't play 20 league games. That means adding four more conference games.

ACC schools like Duke or North Carolina value their non-conference schedules for TV games, neutral court games and a few guaranteed- win games. They won't sacrifice their non-conference schedules for the sake of having a true champion in a complete round-robin format.

The conference tournament would have an opening round and last four full days with no day off and that's if everyone was invited to the event.

And what does the ACC get in hoops? Not much. Virginia Tech has been one of the worst programs in the Big East. Miami turned the program around under Leonard Hamilton with a trip to the Sweet 16 in 2000 and Perry Clark was able to keep the 'Canes in NCAA contention the following season. But the 'Canes missed the NCAAs last season.

Adding Syracuse would have made a significant difference to the basketball power rating. Expanding to Virginia Tech and Miami does very little.

What happens to the lawsuit?
Connecticut attorney general Richard Blumenthal said Sunday that he was waiting for the ACC to move before the plaintiffs filed a motion to halt the expansion. He said he would seek damages and continue the lawsuit even if only one team left. Sources close to the process said that adding Virginia Tech was also an attempt to weaken the lawsuit but Blumenthal's camp believes it would strengthen their case.

What happens to Boston College and Syracuse?
If they are in fact left out of the expansion then they have no choice but to go back to the Big East. The conference won't treat them poorly because it needs them more than they need the Big East. But there will be some awkward moments during any conference meetings.

When would the change take place?
The more likely scenario is for the 2005-06 season. The television contracts with the ACC and the Bowl Championship Series expire after the 2004-05 season. They'll want to use the leverage of Miami and Virginia Tech to get a new deal. But that means likely two years of lame-duck status if they left the Big East.

What does the Big East do?
If this occurs then the Big East will go after Louisville and sources say the Cardinals would join if Syracuse and Boston College were still in the league with Connecticut and Pittsburgh. But the Big East can't stop with just one team for seven football/basketball programs.

They would have to go to eight or possibly 10 schools and that means looking at Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida, East Carolina and Marshall. The Big East has discussed a 16-team model that has eight football/basketball schools and eight non-football, basketball schools. If that were to occur then the Big East would look at Marquette and Xavier.

If all these dominoes were to fall then Conference USA suddenly becomes the carcass in the middle of college athletics, with little left to stand by itself but a gripe like the Big East to file suit against a hostile takeover.

_________________
The Bear may be dead but he still hates Tennessee. Roll Damn Tide

Dear BE,

I feel we have mutual interest worth pursuing and would greatly appreciate the chance to meet with you before you take Louisville ASAP.

It has been proposed that CUSA should explore expansion in various markets in order to survive a BE raid to enhance our product. A number of our institutions would be perfect for your conference share regional interests with yours and feel that we have an opportunity for exploring mututal benefit.

We ask that you please contact our office immediately to discuss the possibility of such cooperation before you secure your BCS eligibility this opportunity passes us by. Thank you.

CUSA

Sucks for CUSA; The inability of the ACC to secure 3+ schools from the BE means the BE not only will survive but prosper at the expense of others. Best hope for CUSA, aggressively pursue the "best of the rest" for 12 all-sport members and work with MWC for becoming BCS conferences #7 and 8. Goodby Louisville, hello Marshall.

most of the answers may come tomorrow!

;DWell, Louisville is headed to the Big East and CUSA is suffering a slow dead. Agree or disagree?

At University of Louisiana tailgating last Saturday I heard the rumor spread around that CUSA has already decided to take Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, and Rice.

I had heard sometime earlier that Louisville and Cincinnati will be offered Big East membership in November.

We were interested in the CUSA rumor because several Sun Belt schools would be interested in a revamped CUSA. What we had heard is that Memphis vetoed Middle Tennessee's membership, Tulane vetoed Louisiana and Louisiana Tech, and TCU and Houston vetoed North Texas.

Probably you think that these Sun Belt schools don't deserve to be in the same conversation with CUSA expansion, but there is an upside because these are public schools. Choosing Tulsa, SMU, Rice, and one public school, Central Florida, means that the conference has decided to re-tool with private schools. Tuition and other expenses involved in the football operation have to be considerably higher. I think expanding with three private schools to get people with past "name recogntion" will hurt CUSA in the long run.

What I mentioned earlier about certain schools blocking the membership of others in their region or state is why it is nearly impossible to put together the optimum conference for everybody concerned. It also explains why interest in these "expansion" topics seems to be waning, because not enough happens fast enough to justify years of talking about it. When it is mentioned on the Sun Belt board I host, people are beginning to tell me that they're tired of this subject.

http://forums.delphiforums.com/SBCsports/start
Sun Belt Conference Delphi Forum

http://sunbeltsports.proboards22.com/index.cgi?
Sun Belt Conference Proboards Forum (same format as this forum)

C-USA will survive. Either the Sun Belt or the WAC will disappear, contingent on Mountain West expansion. Did everybody know that Louisville is the 2003 C-USA Tournament Champions? That's a lot more impressive than losing to Butler in the NCAA Tournament and failing to advance past the Second Round, but then again, since they have the greatest coach of all time, I wouldn't worry too much.

I think it's a question of whether the WAC or CUSA expires. The Sun Belt should be able to pick up the pieces either way.

After Louisville, Cincinnati and (hypothetically) the Florida schools go to the BE, CUSA reportedly will try to bring in Rice, SMU and Tulsa from the WAC. Then the MWC could pick off Hawaii, Fresno St, Nevada and Boise St from the WAC. Who's left? SJS, UTEP and La Tech. The last two could fit into the Sun Belt.

On the other hand, if the WAC is successful in bringing in TCU, Houston & Tulane, that could leave only ECU, Memphis, So. Miss and UAB - which would also fit into the Sunbelt.

I tend to agree, assuming you believe (as most do) that Louisville and Cincinnati to the Big East is a foregone conclusion at this point. One of CUSA and the WAC are in serious jeopardy. It all depends on which of them is successful in raiding the other. If CUSA can get Tulsa, Rice and SMU, then the WAC essentially folds (or absorbs some of the Sun Belt as a last resort) if the MWC takes enough WAC schools to get to 12.

But if the WAC can convince Tulane, Houston and TCU and perhaps one more to join them, place them in a six- or seven-team eastern division with Tulsa, SMU and Rice to make almost a small scale "SWC Lite", then the WAC's stability is more likely ensured, the MWC may have trouble convincing some of the WAC to defect (or might take only one WAC school) and CUSA is in trouble for football.

The Sun Belt (and possibly the MAC) would be left to take the remaining shards, the leftover members of the shattered conference and may or may not choose to keep the name "Sun Belt Conference." This would mostly consist of the weakest and/or most precarious programs in D1-A.

The MWC appears to be the most stable of the non-BCS conferences, and have the luxury of doing nothing...and if anything may expand to 9 or 12. The MAC will easily survive, too, but could lose a couple of their better programs.

Here is what I think will happen...

-C-USA: after losing members to BIG EAST (oh the hypocrisy!), C-USA will add selected members from WAC-East (e.g. Rice, SMU, Tulsa) and possibly members of the MAC as well (e.g. UCF, Marshall).

-WAC: after losing WAC-East members to C-USA (Houston and Tulane would be foolish to join "the sick man of conference realignment), the WAC will add selected members of the Sun Belt (e.g. Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, etc.). However, if the WAC loses more than two teams to Mountain West expansion or otherwise (e.g. Hawaii reasserts "Independent" status), then the WAC will cease to exist.

-The Sun Belt Conference already has 14 teams, so I fail to see a scenario under which they would cease to exist, even if they did lose several members to the WAC (unless it were more than 8, which seems highly unlikely)

Point of clarification: Sun Belt could easily cease to exist in terms of I-A football, but should remain overall (e.g. UALR, UNO, USA, WKU)...

After the first 23 home games, 8 out of the 9 Sun Belt 1-A football schools are meeting the 15,000 average in actual attendance, including Louisiana-Monroe, which averaged 8,700 last year but is now getting the necessary fan support despite a 1-6 record. Idaho is the only one who doesn't average 15K. The conference as a whole is averaging 18-19,000 per game. Utah State leads the conference with a 22,000 average and drew 26,000 last weekend. Because of the improved attendance, I feel better about the SBC than I did before the start of the season.

That doesn't mean that it is safe and secure. We are still getting beaten regularly out of conference and that has to improve. The only good showings vs. BCS competition was an Arkansas State 26-11 loss to Texas A&M and a Middle Tennessee 41-40 loss to Missouri, which I believe was ranked at the time. Troy State, who joins the league in 2004, defeated Marshall at home.

Judge the Sun Belt from now through the rest of the season because we're largely playing each other, and see how the league champion fares in the New Orleans Bowl.

The future is up to the fans. I don't think the better teams can count on an exciting new conference affiliation to rescue them from the SBC. Personally I think the Mountain West will pluck Boise State, Fresno State, and Hawaii, and the private schools in the Eastern WAC will go to Conference USA. The Sun Belt's best hope for a secure future is if Louisiana Tech, UTEP, Nevada, and San Jose State wind up without a conference home and join forces with us. That would give us either 13 or 14 with the addition of Troy State (depending on whether Louisiana-Monroe joins us in all sports and Idaho makes it), enabling us to break up into divisions.

If the Sun Belt survives in football, I think it's entirely possible that the non-football playing schools will get tired of the travel expenses put upon them to accomodate football and either join or form a non-football league with basketball and baseball as its points of emphasis.

What the SBC needs as much or more than football success is basketball success. I feel the real revenue sport for us has declined the past 10 years and that must be reversed. We have to get to a level where we can get at least two bids to the NCAA Tournament. This hasn't happened since 1994.

As I stated in an earlier post, if Vic Bubas is dead, he is turning over in his grave. The conference has now turned into what he never wanted it to be. In fact, it has become a concotion more grotesque than he possibly ever could have imagined.

Was the last SBC two-bid year in 1994 or 1993? I seem to remember New Orleans (Ervin Johnson) and Western Kentucky (Sweet 16) both being in the tournament in 1993, but perhaps 1994 was a multi-bid year as well. All I what to know is "what happened?" In the early to mid-80s, Sun Belt consistently sent multiple teams to the tournament (including 4 in 1986), but by the latter half of the decade it more or less became a one-bid league. There was no more UAB in the Elite Eight, VCU as a #2 seed, etc., etc., but the membership remained the same until 1991. Anyone have answers?

Vic Bubas is very much alive, and Wright Waters said in one of his monthly "Ask the Commissioner" Q/A features that he still depends on him for counsel.

The Sun Belt's original members left the league in 1991 except for Western Kentucky, Jacksonville, and South Alabama. Jacksonville has since departed. So we're talking about different teams. The American South Conference absorbed the three Sun Belt schools left and the Sun Belt name was retained because it had name recognition. Since most of the original members went to the Metro Conference, the forerunner of Conference USA, I would objectively have to state that the original Sun Belt was better. One year Western Kentucky made the Final Four. We're talking about UAB, South Florida, North Carolina Charlotte, VCU, Old Dominion, and possibly others leaving all at once. Some like VCU and ODU have since left CUSA.

My personal feeling is that Craig Thompson did a lousy job as Commissioner of the American South/Sun Belt Conference. I don't know how he gets on all of these committees and got the Mountain West Commissioner's job. Possibly the university presidents tied his hands and he didn't get the resources to upgrade the SBC. Commissioner Wright Waters said himself in another Ask the Commissioner Q/A that we let the success of the 80s slip away (although he wasn't there at that time) and in retrospect should have done more to maintain it.

I believe the last two-bid year for the Sun Belt was 1994. If I were a betting man I would guess that the Sun Belt will evolve into an all-sports conference and the non-football playing schools will move. The league would have probably broken up had football not been picked up. When Waters took over it was formed within a year. He said a school that offers 1-A football has more voting power in the NCAA.