If they are really serious about being a player they should expand to take out another player . My feeling is if they want to create a strong conference they must destabilize their main competition, the WAC. I would take Fresno St., Nevada, Boise St., and a pick from New Mexico St or UTEP. It would be best for them to destabilize the WAC to be more high profile and more attractive for tv. Expanding into Central Texas for just 1 school just does not make sense geographically. It is just what the ACC did to the Big East.
Well, I think that the ACC didn't kill the Big East. They will survive and are actually a better b-ball conference. I think what they conceded with inviting those five schools was that they should return to what they do best, and that's Men's Basketball. The ACC will actually weaken in BBall. Miami, VaTech and BC weren't the best bball schools. However, the ACC solidified it's place at the BCS table. I think the Big East basically said, "Oh well, we will get back to Basketball."
The same could be said for the MWC weighing its options. They are looking for the upgrade in Football and stay within the region. That's why Boise State, TCU and Fresno State rise to the top. I think the other schools mentioned (Nevada-Reno and Hawaii) were merely afterthoughts. I don't think they will look at those two seriously. Hawaii has serious travel concerns and that's why the MWC formed in the first place, to reduce travel and become more regional. Nevada-Reno is not an upgrade in football. It would be just adding another bottom-feeder. They aren't good. Now, Boise State (51 wins over last 5 years), TCU (recent success) and Fresno State (recent success and better facilities) make much more sense to the football upgrade mentality.
I think the MWC will find out privately if TCU will accept. If they say no, then Boise State and Fresno State will get invited. Both programs have the known answers of "HELL YES!" where TCU is teetering. If the goal is to reduce travel and keep regional, then TCU would stay in CUSA. If the goal is to look for BCS status, then they would go. MWC will not entirely Kill the WAC, but they will significantly weaken it by selectively taking the best football performers.
The WAC won't go away. There are several schools in the WAC that play the MWC every year (NM-NM State, Utah-Utah State, UNR-UNLV, SD State-Fresno State). I don't think the MWC would be so foolish to raid the WAC to the point of reducing it to nothing. The issues would be for strength of schedule. The MWC would then be a stronger conference than the WAC (they all ready are, but by taking Fresno and Boise, they would expand the gap). But, the WAC would still be around to be good regional partners for the member schools and for the most part, easy wins.