So perhaps Temple won't re-commit until April 12th, when we know what's up with Villnova and BE football.
My thinking (maybe I'm dead wrong) is that if Villanova says NO, UCF or Houston would be invited for BE#10 before Temple.
So if you agree, Temple is not getting into the BE at least until the BE goes to 12 FB teams.
HOWEVER, maybe Temple sees the possibility of a CUSA team accepting BE #10, and an all-sports CUSA invitation to replace UCF or Houston.
If that is attractive to Temple, then maybe that is the hold-up which is delaying them from re-commiting to the MAC.
I also am not sure why inviting UMass for FB only is dependent on Temple.
However, the delays make one think that this is the case.
I'm thinking UMass's decision depends on Nova actually. The similarity to the timing of all the announcements seems like everything is related and comes down to Nova's decision. Like you said, Temple might hope that Nova says no and UCF goes to the BE and they get C-USA's #12 spot then UMass stays in the CAA with Nova. If Nova upgrades I would think Temple will commit to the MAC and UMass joins as #14. After that, things will probably be pretty stable for awhile.
My big question is why has it taken this long? If the money was better then it should have happened for Nova already. I think they're going to say no, but maybe that's because I'm rooting for Nova to stay in the CAA though. I'd love some shake ups. Let's go for a full on Big East split!!
Then again, the timing of everything might be pure coincidence and we are reading too much into things, but like Gibbs says on NCIS, I don't believe in coincidences.