Richard Tellshow's BCS site has projected TCU to finish 6th in lieu of major upsets.

http://geocities.com/rtell/

Click on "BCS Standings -> Projected" for his analysis results.

This would force some BCS bowl to pick up TCU as a team, if the situation persists.

It's Official: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news?slug=bcsrate1110&prov=st&type=lgns

Ironically, the Polls are what's hurting TCU, not the computer rankings. The computers have them at 5.

If they run the table, the BCS has to invite them over any 2 loss team, no matter what their ranking is.

Not necessarily. Many writers are suspicious that the last game of the season against SMU will hurt TCU's strength of schedule to the point of dropping them from the top 6, especially if potential non-conference champions like Ohio State (which finishes against a ranked Purdue and at Michigan) fill in the top 6. Yesterday's BCS poll is, like all polls, essentially meaningless. It's the last one that counts.

Do you think that TCU's run will delay their decision on whether to join the MWC?

There's speculation on a couple of Pac-10 boards that TCU may well end up in the Rose Bowl if USC goes to the Sugar.

The complaint is that the big cheese who front the dosh for the Rose Bowl will find this as a reason to want to bail out of the BCS. The possibility seems to be infuriating a lot of West Coast fans already.

Tellshow is incorporating the entire SOS *after* all games have been played in his "Projected" listing. (He makes a rather simplifying assumption that all teams will defeat lower-ranked opponents in the computer average and lose to those with higher ranking. If this doesn't hold, that is an upset.)

This "Projected" BCS includes the estimated effects of the TCU-SMU game (as well as the end of the season for all 117 teams), and assumes that all the top teams not playing each other will win out.

If no upset happens (an example of upset being a loss at Southern Miss as Joedadi writes), TCU will in all probability qualify for a BCS berth by being in the top 6.

GunnerFan, you are right in that the last standings are the only ones that count. These last standings are estimated by Tellshow, and he has done a remarkable job of nailing the closed-formula computer rankings in the past between the times when games were completed and the ratings were published on Monday.

Some key assumptions:
Ohio State beats Michigan, knocking them from the #5 poll spot. The reverse may not hold, i.e., OSU may not drop below TCU if they lose.
Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC Championship game, knocking them from their poll position close above TCU. Reverse may not hit LSU enough to do the same.
TCU will leapfrog Tennessee in the AP poll. (They are already ahead by 4 in the Coaches poll, and 1 behind in the AP.) If this does not occur, TCU will finish behind Tennessee and be BCS #7.

Interesting developments in the BCS...

it looks like Tennessee has taken over the sixth spot from TCU, and Georgia may have leapfrogged (pun intended) them as well. The fact that both SEC East teams are ahead of TCU means trouble, because at least one of them can finish out the season winning out without having to play in the championship game and risking a loss vs. LSU. Texas will benefit from this as well.

So this is what we know and/or can project about the BCS:

ACC: Florida State is in.

Big East: Miami, WVU or Pitt (in that order of likelihood).

Big Ten: Michigan/Ohio State winner, as it should be.

Big XII: K-State-Missouri winner vs. Oklahoma in the Championship, with Oklahoma winning, at least on this planet.

Pac Ten: Most likely USC.

SEC: Georgia from the east (unless they lose to Tech), and most likely LSU from the west. Who wins this is anybody's guess, since it is in Atlanta.

At-large berths:

none from the ACC or Big East.

Ohio State if it loses a close game to Michigan and the pollsters don't drop them too far.

Texas, provided it beats A&M (but who hasn't?)

Washington State can be considered only because USC may go to the Sugar Bowl and the Rose bowl would get to pick an at-large. Tradition, you know.

TCU, provided it gets by Southern Miss on Thursday.

Tennessee, if it wins out but doesn't go to the SEC Championship. And LSU, if it loses a close game to Ole Miss or loses the SEC Championship.

So that's Texas, Tennessee, TCU, Washington State, maybe Ohio State, maybe LSU. At this point, barring unforeseen circumstances, I would have to say it will be Texas and Tennessee.

By the way, the NYT poll absolutely has to go. A perfunctory scan will tell you that their top 25 has almost nothing in common with the top 25 of any of the other computer rankings. USC, LSU, Texas, Michigan, TCU, Florida, Miami (OH) and Mississippi are all ranked either way above or way below the average. You could get more accuracy from a monkey and a dartboard.

Prediction.
11/20/03
TCU- 17
Southern Miss- 23

Call it nerves.

TCU will have to dominate Southern Miss in a serious way to finish in the top 6. TCU is dropping because the big guys are playing big teams and winning. Their strength of schedule is overpowering their 2 losses.

TCU has to make a statement to voters in order to be ranked higher in the human polls.

BTW, the reason TCU is ranked so high in the computer polls is that margin of victory is dissallowed in the BCS. Sagarin publishes two polls, one for the BCS, and one with margin of victory.

Here is Sagarins poll on USA Today http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm

TCU is ranked 34th in his "non-adjusted" poll. Using his ELO-CHESS methodology (no margin of victory) TCU is ranked 8th.

The discrepancy isn't limited to TCU. Sagarin has Ohio ST ranked 13 using MOV, they are ranked 3rd using Elo-Chess. For all of Craig Krenzel's pregnant doging about TCU being ranked to highly due to margin of victory, he fails to point out his Buckeyes are also in the same boat. Granted, the Buckeyes have a much tougher schedule than TCU, if they finish with one loss, they do deserve a Sugar Bowl bid.

I think that if TCU gets a BCS bid unless it beats So. Miss by 2+ touchdowns, it would be unfair. >:( They, being in the Conf. USA were able to get an easy conference schedule and an easy non-conference schedule. If they had to go through almost anyone's conference schedule in the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, or Big East, TCU would have at least two conference losses. This is why I want TCU to lose to So. Miss. The arguement that it is very hard to go undefeated with any schedule and that is why TCU is one of the best eight teams there is is just plain wrong. I actually believe that TCU scheduled all the cupcakes on purpose so they could go undefeated and get national attention. There would be so many new Horned Frog supporters if the people thought TCU was unfairly shunned a BCS bowl. This also would help Scott Cowen's cause. It is like the Horned Frog conspiracy. There should be a rule that says that to get into the BCS, a team must win against two teams from the top 25. TCU could not survive with Florida's or Alabama's schedule. It also seems like it is politically incorrect to say that TCU does not deserve to have a BCS bid. >:(

When the TCU athletic department put together the OOC schedule, most of their current players were in high school, so I wouldn't go so far as to say they did this to try to set up an undefeated season. In fact, they currently have opponents signed through the 2011 season, including Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Arkansas.

Scheduling OOC opponents is not easy, by the way. It's not like top-flight BCS schools are just waiting to schedule a strong mid-major that has a shot at embarrassing them. Take away the cross-conference rivalries, and how many quality teams do the big boys actually schedule? Usually no more than one a season. The rest of the schedule is padded with Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State and Florida A&M. Even then, only a handful will play you on the road. TCU did what it could -- two BCS conference teams (Arizona and Vanderbilt -- and Arizona wasn't nearly this bad when this game was scheduled) and their in-state rival SMU. Granted, Navy ain't much to talk about, but you have to have a gimme in there somewhere.

It's a weak schedule, there's no argument about it. But let's not start with the conspiracy theories.

As for your requirement that teams must have 2 wins against ranked opponents, I guess that would disqualify Florida State and Washington State, each with zero.

I admit that the conspiracy theory was dumb, but Washington St. does not deserve a BCS bowl and FSU won't unless they win at Florida. Maybe one top 25 win would be better.

Now that the BCS has been around a while, coaches and AD's from mid-majors should know how to schedule OOC opponents. A quality program is a a quality program. I can excuse someone scheduling say a Washington four years ago and then come game time they are weak. Arizona is the only team in the Pac-10 not go to the Rose Bowl and Vanderbilt...well.

Any mid-major that wants to be taken seriously needs to schedule at least two quality opponents, not top 25 at the time they play that has a luck factor. You know who I mean, maybe not the Fla. Sts, Oklahomas, Michigans, but maybe Auburns, Texas's, or Wisconsins, programs that may not be considered "elite" but are considered quality programs(I hope I didn't offend any Tigers, Longhorns, or Badgers)

Let's face it... a weak schedule is a weak schedule. TCU doesn't deserve to get an invite... and this from an admitted non-BCS guy. ;)