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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 9:36 am 
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Let's assume that the MWC takes three teams:

Boise State
Fresno State
UTEP


That means the CUSA needs another and immediate snatches up:

La Tech


Now the WAC is down to six and wants three more football members:

North Texas gives them the Dallas market.

They still need two more with not many options.

How about:

Sacramento State and UC Davis?


Both these schools are building new football stadiums. Sac St. is building a new bball arena and Davis already has a nice arena. Both have good olympic sports (including baseball). Both are very close to each other (literally a visiting team could stay at the same hotel and play both of these schools).


The Sun Belt goes from 13 to 12 and gain the football member back by getting Western KY to upgrade from I-AA to I-A.


Last edited by tman080808 on Sat May 13, 2006 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 10:42 am 
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I am not so sure at this time that UTEP would be the third pick for the 12th member of the MWC or Nevada would be a better pick. If the current coach/AD, Chris Ault, stays as coach of Nevada, they may stay at a level they were this past year. UTEP offers better attendance. El Paso right now is a slightly bigger market than Reno, but eventually Reno will out grow it. Also the buying power of the Reno market may exceed the El Paso buying power right now, considering the median income is probably higher in Reno compared to El Paso. Nevada's academics is probably better than UTEP's. Location also favors Nevada. Nevada has a rivalry with UNLV. However UTEP has old ties to many of their former WAC brethern in the MWC. Its more even as far as these two candidates for a very hypothetical 12th member of the MWC.

If the WAC was raided that deeply, it would make them a weaker conference compared to the Sun Belt. North Texas already refused a WAC membership already. They wouldn't take one after the WAC was weakened severely by such a raid. If the Sun Belt lost schools, then I could see the possible merger of the westernmost Sun Belt schools merging with the remnant WAC teams while the eastern Sun Belt schools go into the MAC if some of the MAC schools were dissolved by 1-A requirements. Western Kentucky is probably more of a MAC candidate than a Sun Belt football candidate at this point. The other thing I could see is the Big East pick some of the CUSA team apart, New Mexico State goes into CUSA along with La Tech, San Jose State goes away, Hawaii becomes independent and Idaho and Utah State move down to I-AA and go into the Big Sky Conference, or a good portion of the Big Sky Conference merges with the WAC and moves up.


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 2:43 pm 
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Here's what I like about your idea:

Hawaii as an independant. They get to play 13 games a year anyway and play teams from all over. If they were Indep, they could schedule many BCS teams (thought they might not win many games).

Perhaps the WAC even becomes a better league without the negative effect that potential members see in having to travel to Hawaii.

Overall, I like that a lot.


I also like that you're thinking ahead to the Big East bball/fball split and the possibility that the BE fball conference would raid the CUSA for some more members (CFla and Memphis come to mind).

Perhaps CUSA, SB, MWC, and WAC should just wipe the slate clean and compeltely reshuffle their membership. Though I doubt that would happen.


Not sure if I like it:

North Texas refusing WAC bid.

I still say a WAC without Fresno and Boise is stronger than the Sun Belt. I think a WAC is a step up for them.

Both the MWC and CUSA have a foothold in the Dallas market (TCU and SMU respectively) so I don't see why the WAC wouldn't want a peice.


West KY to the MAC. I could see it, but then again, would the MAC want them? They've got plenty of football members anyway. OTOH, the Sun Belt is begging for football members.


San Jose drops football. This is certainly a possibility, but if they do then it's going to be hard for them to remain in the WAC. The Big West might be a more likely target for them if they do. If they could just get some sustained winning seasons under their belt, they have everything else going for them as far as market goes.



I could only see NM St going to the CUSA if UTEP stays in.



Don't like:

The Big Sky moving up to I-A. I doubt many of the schools could afford the move. Montana would probably be ok. And Sac State is probably headed that way anyway. Not sure about the rest. Idaho State and Weber State are for sure no. The SLC market is already saturated with DI schools (Weber, Utah State, Utah, BYU, UVSC) including three football teams. They can't handle another one. Idaho State doesn't have the market for DI either. Most of the state watches Idaho or Boise. Eastern Wash. is in a Saturated Market with Wash. State and Gonzaga. Portland State is in the market with Oregon and Oregon State (and probably some Wash/Wash State too). If they can get a new on campus arena built for bball, they might drop football (they play in the city's minor league baseball stadium). Montana State might be able to make it, but only if they can stay with Montana. UNC couldn't make it at DI-A with Colorado State, Air Force, and Colorado in their market.

And as for Utah State and Idaho dropping back to I-AA? Never will happen. The only way that could happen is if the NCAA makes them for not meeting attendance requirements.

They'll give away free tickets before that happens.




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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2006 4:51 pm 
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Western Kentucky and the MAC have been rumored to be talking. Its at a further stage for them to go to the MAC than just speculation.

The WAC definitely wanted North Texas. They even extended them an invite, even before they took Idaho. UNT refused the invite because they were once a part of the old Big West-6 and see the western alignment with them as unstable. If Boise State and Fresno State were gone, they would continue to refuse. If Nevada was gone as well, the WAC would indeed be nothing to write home about. Only Hawaii would be the remaining school with some performance, that is if they didn't leave to become an independent.

A WAC conference remnant of New Mexico State, Idaho, Utah State and San Jose State is definitely weaker than the current Sun Belt, with UNT, Troy, and Arkansas State with better recent performance than the WAC-remnant-4 above. North Texas wouldn't want anything to do with a weak conference like that.

I don't see all of the Big Sky conference jumping to 1-A. If 4 joined it would be enough to allow the WAC to continue. It could be Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Sac State and/or Cal-Davis. The rest could remain in I-AA and merge with the Great West Conference.

Idaho, as Pounder mentions, continues to be courted by Commissioner Fullerton in Boise. If all that was left of the WAC was Idaho and Utah State, two teams who last year were hovering with the 15,000 attendance, wouldn't have many options left. I-AA drop down to a conference may be the only choice. Utah State was also independent for 1 year and may consider just dropping back down, or they could be justified as the only western Sun Belt team.


Last edited by metropolitan on Sat May 13, 2006 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 9:07 am 
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As I said, no I-A will ever drop down to I-AA unless they're forced to by the NCAA.

Montana State and esp. Northern Arizona won't be able to make a jump to DI-A. MSU is too isolated and NAU is in the same market as Arizon and ASU. No dice for either of them.


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 9:58 am 
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Iowa St to the B10?
Utah to the B12?
A recent ESPN Rumor.





















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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 11:15 am 
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Quote:
As I said, no I-A will ever drop down to I-AA unless they're forced to by the NCAA.


There have been a number of schools that have either dropped football or dropped out of 1-A. The University of Pacific is an example of a school that dropped football. Rice considered recently either going down to I-AA or down to D III. If given really difficult circumstances, it is an option that may appear for an institution if other options are not available, such as a conference, and they can not remain viable as an island independent.


Quote:
Montana State and esp. Northern Arizona won't be able to make a jump to DI-A. MSU is too isolated and NAU is in the same market as Arizon and ASU. No dice for either of them.


If Montana goes to I-A, Montana State wouldn't be isolated. Its no different for them as far as location to be in the Big Sky as compared to the WAC. Fairly similar location of schools. Utah, Idaho, California, etc.

The State of Arizona is one of the fastest growing states in the union. They currently have 5.5 million people and are approaching 6 million. That is the same size as Indiana, and Indiana has 4 D-1A programs. It is projected by 2020 that Arizona will have more than 10 million people and will be one of the 10 largests states. We are talking the WAC here not BCS. Arizona definitely has enough people 20 years ago to support 3 D-IA schools. Its location is not in Phoenix. There is coverage, albeit third place, of them in the Phoenix Media. Arizona, outside of their 3 state schools has very few 4-year colleges (Grand Canyon College, Northcentral College, and the University of Phoenix). So the three public universities carry deep penetration of the college sports market there.

I-A is possible for Montana, Sac State, UC-Davis, Montana State and Northern Arizona.


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 11:24 am 
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Quote:
Iowa St to the B10?
Utah to the B12?
A recent ESPN Rumor.


That is not an "ESPN Rumor."

Its an "ESPN Message Board Rumor". Big difference. Its like someone spreading a rumor on here. The root of it came from a Utah Ute Message Board not on ESPN back on April18th. Some guy who knew someone at the University of Arizona who he discusses Utah going to the Pac 10 came up with this.


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 12:46 pm 
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Met


Here is the link I read

http://www.ncaabbs.com/forums/mwc/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=725


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 1:37 pm 
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Quote:

Eastern Wash. is in a Saturated Market with Wash. State and Gonzaga. Portland State is in the market with Oregon and Oregon State (and probably some Wash/Wash State too). If they can get a new on campus arena built for bball, they might drop football (they play in the city's minor league baseball stadium). Montana State might be able to make it, but only if they can stay with Montana. UNC couldn't make it at DI-A with Colorado State, Air Force, and Colorado in their market.

Eastern Washington doesn't compete with Gonzaga in football. The Zags are basketball-only school, much like Seton Hall. The market is saturated though, due to having the share the same markets with Washington State and Idaho. Portland State won't be dropping football mainly due to the fact that no conference will take them without football, regardless of how nice of an arena they have. I know you're probably thinking about the Vikings going to the Big West, tman, but it's just not going to happen because the Big West is now the all-California bus league. If you're not in California, don't bother applying to join the Big Worst, I mean, Big West. It's more likely that Portland State would move up to IA. As for UNC, I have my doubts about them too, but again, for reasons different from yours. While the Air Force Academy is located in Colorado, and no doubt has some of that state for a market, it is not AFA's only market. I consider Air Force, Army, and Navy to all have national tv markets, because their graduates are pretty evenly spread throughout the country as opposed to being concentrated in one state or region. Northern Colorado's problem actually lies due north of them: Wyoming. Wyoming, Colorado, & Colorado State all share the Denver tv market. While Denver and the state of Colorado is growing, I don't know if UNC has a big enough fan base that doesn't already have allegiances to the previously mentioned three teams.
Agree with the rest.


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 2:00 pm 
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Quote:


And here is the ultimate source of that very rumor:

http://www.utefans.net/message.php?id=344729#message344729

This Ute fan knows someone in the AD office at the University of Arizona who he talks to about Utah and San Diego State getting invited to the Pac 10. Probably the U of Arizona AD staff guy got tired of this guy asking him a bunch of questions or was fearing saying something off the cuff that may be interpreted to mean that the Pac 10 was interested in Utah and as a result as a way to keep from saying something pejorative about the University of Utah and their chances for the Pac 10, picked out something from another conference that would keep him from being bothered by him again.

The guy talks about the Iowa legislature discussing this. There has been nothing out of Iowa that I have read lately that has any indication of this.

They even visited an Iowa State Board at the whole thought was laughed into the ground:

http://www.utefans.net/message.php?id=344828#message344828

This same website also has a rumor going on that the Big East will be inviting Utah State University as its 9th member:

http://www.utefans.net/message.php?id=344962#message344962


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 2:40 pm 
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Quote:


There have been a number of schools that have either dropped football or dropped out of 1-A.


::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)

That's not what I said.

I said from I-A to I-AA.


I know several schools have dropped football.



Quote:
Rice considered recently either going down to I-AA or down to D III.


Considered doesn't mean jack. Tulane considered going to DIII too, look what happened.

The ADs use it as a threat to scare up more donor money.


Quote:
If Montana goes to I-A, Montana State wouldn't be isolated.


Good point.


This is the only way Montana State could survive at I-A, if they were in the same conference as Montana.


Quote:
The State of Arizona is one of the fastest growing states in the union. They currently have 5.5 million people and are approaching 6 million. That is the same size as Indiana, and Indiana has 4 D-1A programs.


No offence to Arizona, but the reason it's growing is that it's filling up with hispanic immigrents.

You don't honestly think millions of white people are flocking to AZ?


Not that hispanics can't afford football tickets, but they just aren't interested in football.

They like soccer.


Last edited by tman080808 on Sun May 14, 2006 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 2:44 pm 
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Quote:

Eastern Washington doesn't compete with Gonzaga in football. The Zags are basketball-only school, much like Seton Hall.



My god...


you've been sitting on this information the whole time?!

THE WHOLE TIME?!?! DO YOU REALIZE WHAT YOU"VE DONE!?!?!?!?!?


Obviously, football isn't the only sport considered when moving to DI.


Quote:
Portland State won't be dropping football mainly due to the fact that no conference will take them without football, regardless of how nice of an arena they have. I know you're probably thinking about the Vikings going to the Big West, tman, but it's just not going to happen because the Big West is now the all-California bus league. If you're not in California, don't bother applying to join the Big Worst, I mean, Big West.



Everyone says this. Big West is a CA bus league.

Really? What about Utah State and Idaho?


You're telling me they wouldn't even consider PSU?


Well, since I know that you don't sit on the Big West board, I know that you can't know that.

PSU has to do something.


They play in a minor league baseball stadium. They're broke as broke gets. They had to drop tennis because they were so broke.


I do agree that without football their DI options are limited (other than the obvious Big West). But they have to do something.


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PostPosted: Sun May 14, 2006 2:54 pm 
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Quote:

Quote:


There have been a number of schools that have either dropped football or dropped out of 1-A.


::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)

That's not what I said.

I said from I-A to I-AA.


I know several schools have dropped football.


Villanova was up until the late 70's/early 80's I-A and then dropped down, and even eliminated football and then came back as I-AA.





Quote:
Considered doesn't mean jack. Tulane considered going to DIII too, look what happened.

The ADs use it as a threat to scare up more donor money.


Oh yes it does. If there are constraints to a program, it will be an option.




Quote:


No offence to Arizona, but the reason it's growing is that it's filling up with hispanic immigrents.

You don't honestly think millions of white people are flocking to AZ?


Not that hispanics can't afford football tickets, but they just aren't interested in football.

They like soccer.


That's part of their growth. Many retirees and young people move to Arizona.

Oklahoma, which has had 3 1-As successfully for many decades is the size of what Arizona was 15 years ago.

We aren't even talking Tulsa like numbers here for Northern Arizona to survive.

The market question for a divisional level is different than competing for someone for a division I-A conference. You can have a market as small as the University of Wyoming's and survive. Perhaps even lower. If the WAC was down to 4 or 5 members and couldn't get Sun Belt teams to join them, they would approach Big Sky members and see if they would want to join. In this case, if NAU was approached and there was no competition for that 8th WAC member, then they would be invited if they were willing to move up. Conferences are not going to go down folding because there are no more I-A teams available. If Montana, Montana State and Sac State left for the WAC, it would make the Big Sky less attractive and may compell an additional team or two to follow those three in their footsteps. The WAC wouldn't have any other option. The WAC hasn't been in the Arizona market since the 1970's when it was a state that had 1/3 the people it has now.


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2006 5:51 am 
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Quote:
Iowa St to the B10?
Utah to the B12?
A recent ESPN Rumor.

Iowa Stis not wanted by the Big 10. Only ND, Syracuse or Missouri.





















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