12 team conferences will be the standard.
It's far easier for me to believe that certain Big 12 schools will actually shuck what they see as dead weight by reconstituting the Southwest Conference... though many will find it odd that Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Missouri somehow became southwestern teams.
Need I mention how the Big East will turn out?
Do SEC schools really want to continue associating with both Mississippi schools? Do they regret taking Arkansas when a Texas school might have been available? What value does South Carolina really have besides filling the football stadium every time? (I'm actually going from a pet hypothesis that the SEC needs Vanderbilt to make the academics actually look relevant)
Can you imagine the permutations with the ACC? (Might be too valuable a name to leave, however)
The odd twist on this is that the Big Ten is the conference most likely to stick with 12 if they go there. That's the conference, IMO, where the association is actually (well, perhaps barely) more valuable than the individual schools.
I disagree that 12 is the future. If you understand the Tom Hansen argument about the economics of expansion, you don't have to dig much further to determine the economics of contraction. If you believe that television will actually lose fans to the internet, without the internet ever really finding a truly profitable platform establishment, then you tend to wonder how the big TV contracts will maintain... and therefore I wonder what happens when the money doesn't flow as much as now. I think individual schools will act to protect their money to the extent that one or two new conferences will be formed and won't grow all that large.