NCAA Conference Realignment & Expansion Message Boards
NCAA Map

Discussions by Conference:
  It is currently Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:43 pm

Help support CollegeSportsInfo.com by shopping

All times are UTC - 5 hours




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 12:57 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:53 pm
Posts: 368
SUNBELT
West
-----
Ark st
La-Monroe
SHSU
Texas st
SFA
UALR
McNeese

EAST
---------
Fl AT
FL INT
South Alabama
MTSU
UNO
Georgia Southern
App st


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:57 am 
Offline
Freshman
Freshman

Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:51 am
Posts: 20
add LA Tech, UTSA,Harding, Abilene Christian and more


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:18 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:53 pm
Posts: 368
La tech and UTSA wants no part of the Sunbelt. Abilene Christian is looking at the Southland. I am hearing nothing on Harding.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:44 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:47 pm
Posts: 218
Location: Milwaukee, WI
No way this happens this fast unless the C-USA split is a definite go. Otherwise UL-Lafayette, North Texas, have nowhere to go but the WAC, and Western Kentucky nowhere but the MAC. Troy would have nowhere advantageous.

Now if the C-USA split actually happens...then this scenario might be reasonable.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:14 am 
Offline
All-Conference
All-Conference

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am
Posts: 556
Location: Dallas
So this scenario appears to be assuming UNT, ULL, troy, graduate to the CUSA/SWC, Denver is booted out/leaves, and 6 new members join SHSU, Texas State, SFA, McNeese St, Georgia Southern, and App State.

I would judge a lot of this as very unlikely. A number of us have suggested that UNT would be a likely choice of a breakaway SWC, but would they really? I personally think it would be totally in the longterm interest of Houston and UTEP to pull in UNT, but the privates could be shortsighted jerks. In the short term adding UNT to the CUSA west makes sense, but the logic isn't obvious and as such might be overlooked/discounted.

Adding ULL makes little sense. Small public with a financially poor and insignificant media market very close to LSU. Solid basketball attendance, modest football. I can't see either part of CUSA wanting them.

Adding Troy to CUSA East is possible. A legit arguement can be made that they deliver ~500 TV households and they have solid football attendance at 20K.

Some think Denver getting booted seems destined to happen soon, but I tend to doubt it because of the way the landscape is likely to go.

I cannot see any of the 6 FCS schools you mention besides Texas State and maybe Georgia Southern being ready as of 2012. I think a lot depends on how CUSA breaks. If they break east 6 and west 6, then UNT and possibly UTSA might be invited to the west and schools that make TV sense and hopefully are solid or look to be solid soon to the East = FIU, FAU, Troy, Middle Tennesee, USA. I could see Temple being offered a slot and maybe suprise team Old Dominion would be #12 instead of USA.

West
Middle Tennesee
Troy
Marshall
UAB
S. Miss
Memphis

East
UCF
FIU
FAU
ECU
Temple
Old Dominion

If memphis and maybe UAB goes with the privates and Texas schools for the better TV revenue and the better academic reputations, then CUSA East is somewhat screwed. They only way they can get an autobid (if the NCAA actually followed their rules) would be to either join the Sunbelt or talk 6 sunbelt schools into breaking away and joining them in a new conference --- which unlike the WAC, the Sunbelt could survive as they have 13 members.

IMO the likely schools left behind are non-football UALR, Denver and New Orleans and football schools UNT, Ark St., ULL, and ULM.

With their automatic bid intact the Sunbelt would try to reload. I think they would put out the word that they need teams. Likely FBS jumpers UTSA, Texas State, Georgia Southern, Lamar, and Jacksonville State would all want in barring an invite from a better conference --- considering the often shortsighted private motivations of higher tiered schools who are chasing BCS status, not likely.

I haven't seen anything where App State is looking to move up. They would be a hot add if they were. I haven't seen anything about SFA and SHSU actually planning to jump. McNeese has a tiny poor market and is a small public. They would be ill advised to make the jump.


Quote:
La tech and UTSA wants no part of the Sunbelt.


La Tech is bleeding over travel costs. I would not be suprised to see the administration lay down the law and the university reconsidering the Sunbelt, possibly initally only for non-football sports in the near future.

UTSA has only 3 potential homes:
1) The WAC as a geographically distant replacement for a potential lost team (Frenso St, or Nevada)
2) The CUSA West (as UTSA offers a new big market) --- but that may be below the dignity of the member schools and doesn't thelp their BCS chances.
3) The Sunbelt

UTSA is a little in the clouds, IMO. Additionally, a part of their concerns may be travel costs. If all the east members bail, that is no longer a concern.

I think a much more likely sunbelt would be:
UNT
Ark St.
ULL
ULM
UTSA
Texas State
Georgia Southern
Lamar
Jacksonville State

and BB schools
UALR
Denver
New Orleans

That is not what I would do if I ran the Sun Belt though. If left with those schools, I would set conference goals of 3OK attendance in football and 8K in BB. Stadium and area capacity upgrades would be the order of the day. I would talk UTSA and Texas State into joining, offer NMSU then, a few years later, La Tech non-football memberships with the option to join as full members 7 years down the road. I would offer Lamar a non-football slot and publically promise Lamar all sports membership if they can average 28K in football attendance over any 4 consecutive seasons in FCS. That might take them 10 years if at all. I would try to talk sense into Jacksonville State. I would offer non-football memberships and the offer of full sports memberships to Sam Houston St, S. Ill, Missou St., and Wichita St. if they uprgrade to 35K stadiums in 5 years. I think they would all immediately bite. I'd offer Oral Roberts a non-football spot. I'd try to talk Georgia Southern into upgrading their stadium to 35K before they even consider FBS. Be a FCS attendance superpower for 5-6 years. Finally, I would offer St. Louis a non-football slot a few years down the road when we are established.

UNT
Ark St.
ULL
ULM
UTSA
Texas State
S. Ill
Missou St.
Wichita St.
SHSU

and BB schools
NMSU
La Tech
UALR
Denver
New Orleans
Oral Roberts
Lamar

That comes 17 schools without St, Louis. I am sure some of these would not work out, so I added extra.

This would quickly become a top basketball conference, has a nice footprint that would allow fan travelling, offers good stability, has mostly right-sized schools, and has great TV potential.


Last edited by finiteman on Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 12:08 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:53 pm
Posts: 368
Lafayette and Lubbock MSA are the same size.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:26 pm 
Offline
All-Conference
All-Conference

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2002 8:05 am
Posts: 556
Location: Dallas

Quote:
Lafayette and Lubbock MSA are the same size.


Again, Media ads are sold by DMAs not MSAs, and if you look at west texas, there are only two FBS schools in that region. As someone who lived out there I can tell you Tech holds their own with A&M & UT in West Texas. UTEP is an El Paso and the neighboring DMA only concern. Tech has great pull in about 7-8 DMAs in that region that rival the Lafayette DMA and that at best have a small struggling FCS university. At best.

Lafayette has nothing like that.


Last edited by finiteman on Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 4:13 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:53 pm
Posts: 368

Quote:
No way this happens this fast unless the C-USA split is a definite go. Otherwise UL-Lafayette, North Texas, have nowhere to go but the WAC, and Western Kentucky nowhere but the MAC. Troy would have nowhere advantageous.

Now if the C-USA split actually happens...then this scenario might be reasonable.

Yes, it was based on the CUSA splitting.

Texas st is leaving the Southland.
Sam Houston st will not allow Texas st to up them.
SFA will not allow SHSU to up them.

See the pattern.

CUSA will split and lose members. Sunbelt schools will fill a few spots.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: 2012 Sunbelt....
PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 4:15 pm 
Offline
Senior
Senior

Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 2:53 pm
Posts: 368

Quote:
Adding ULL makes little sense. Small public with a financially poor and insignificant media market very close to LSU. Solid basketball attendance, modest football. I can't see either part of CUSA wanting them.


Lafayette is not a small market.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 9 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
 

 

cron




Looking for College Sports apparel? Support our partner:








Support Our Partners: Search Engine Marketing - Search Engine Optimization - Search Engine Training - Online Marketing for Restuarants

Subway Map Shirts - Food and Travel

Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group