So this scenario appears to be assuming UNT, ULL, troy, graduate to the CUSA/SWC, Denver is booted out/leaves, and 6 new members join SHSU, Texas State, SFA, McNeese St, Georgia Southern, and App State.
I would judge a lot of this as very unlikely. A number of us have suggested that UNT would be a likely choice of a breakaway SWC, but would they really? I personally think it would be totally in the longterm interest of Houston and UTEP to pull in UNT, but the privates could be shortsighted jerks. In the short term adding UNT to the CUSA west makes sense, but the logic isn't obvious and as such might be overlooked/discounted.
Adding ULL makes little sense. Small public with a financially poor and insignificant media market very close to LSU. Solid basketball attendance, modest football. I can't see either part of CUSA wanting them.
Adding Troy to CUSA East is possible. A legit arguement can be made that they deliver ~500 TV households and they have solid football attendance at 20K.
Some think Denver getting booted seems destined to happen soon, but I tend to doubt it because of the way the landscape is likely to go.
I cannot see any of the 6 FCS schools you mention besides Texas State and maybe Georgia Southern being ready as of 2012. I think a lot depends on how CUSA breaks. If they break east 6 and west 6, then UNT and possibly UTSA might be invited to the west and schools that make TV sense and hopefully are solid or look to be solid soon to the East = FIU, FAU, Troy, Middle Tennesee, USA. I could see Temple being offered a slot and maybe suprise team Old Dominion would be #12 instead of USA.
If memphis and maybe UAB goes with the privates and Texas schools for the better TV revenue and the better academic reputations, then CUSA East is somewhat screwed. They only way they can get an autobid (if the NCAA actually followed their rules) would be to either join the Sunbelt or talk 6 sunbelt schools into breaking away and joining them in a new conference --- which unlike the WAC, the Sunbelt could survive as they have 13 members.
IMO the likely schools left behind are non-football UALR, Denver and New Orleans and football schools UNT, Ark St., ULL, and ULM.
With their automatic bid intact the Sunbelt would try to reload. I think they would put out the word that they need teams. Likely FBS jumpers UTSA, Texas State, Georgia Southern, Lamar, and Jacksonville State would all want in barring an invite from a better conference --- considering the often shortsighted private motivations of higher tiered schools who are chasing BCS status, not likely.
I haven't seen anything where App State is looking to move up. They would be a hot add if they were. I haven't seen anything about SFA and SHSU actually planning to jump. McNeese has a tiny poor market and is a small public. They would be ill advised to make the jump.
La tech and UTSA wants no part of the Sunbelt.
La Tech is bleeding over travel costs. I would not be suprised to see the administration lay down the law and the university reconsidering the Sunbelt, possibly initally only for non-football sports in the near future.
UTSA has only 3 potential homes:
1) The WAC as a geographically distant replacement for a potential lost team (Frenso St, or Nevada)
2) The CUSA West (as UTSA offers a new big market) --- but that may be below the dignity of the member schools and doesn't thelp their BCS chances.
3) The Sunbelt
UTSA is a little in the clouds, IMO. Additionally, a part of their concerns may be travel costs. If all the east members bail, that is no longer a concern.
I think a much more likely sunbelt would be:
and BB schools
That is not what I would do if I ran the Sun Belt though. If left with those schools, I would set conference goals of 3OK attendance in football and 8K in BB. Stadium and area capacity upgrades would be the order of the day. I would talk UTSA and Texas State into joining, offer NMSU then, a few years later, La Tech non-football memberships with the option to join as full members 7 years down the road. I would offer Lamar a non-football slot and publically promise Lamar all sports membership if they can average 28K in football attendance over any 4 consecutive seasons in FCS. That might take them 10 years if at all. I would try to talk sense into Jacksonville State. I would offer non-football memberships and the offer of full sports memberships to Sam Houston St, S. Ill, Missou St., and Wichita St. if they uprgrade to 35K stadiums in 5 years. I think they would all immediately bite. I'd offer Oral Roberts a non-football spot. I'd try to talk Georgia Southern into upgrading their stadium to 35K before they even consider FBS. Be a FCS attendance superpower for 5-6 years. Finally, I would offer St. Louis a non-football slot a few years down the road when we are established.
and BB schools
That comes 17 schools without St, Louis. I am sure some of these would not work out, so I added extra.
This would quickly become a top basketball conference, has a nice footprint that would allow fan travelling, offers good stability, has mostly right-sized schools, and has great TV potential.