fighting muskie wrote:
It will be interesting to see how things play out when the ACC and Big 12 GORs near their end. The result will essentially be a free agency period for the Pac 12, Big 10, and SEC to make their offers to the biggest fish in those two leagues. All three will likely express overtures to Texas and Oklahoma. I'm not sure that they hold the Big 12 together when 3 wealthy conferences are all waiving money at them.
In most conversations surrounding the Big 12's gem programs Kansas gets mentioned. I'm guessing the likely home for them is the Big Ten but correct me if I'm wrong in this thinking. The question is who else goes to the Big Ten? Are they part of a 4-team deal with Texas, Oklahoma, and a fourth school and if so who is that 4th? If the Big Ten doesn't land Texas and Oklahoma and someone else does and the Big Ten throws the Jayhawks a lifeline who does the Big Ten pair Kansas with to make an even 16?--do they make a move to take Missouri? Is it Notre Dame or an ACC school? Do they botch the whole thing and end up getting Iowa St?
As far as what's left of the Big 12 after the dust settles I expect that realignment will happen in phases a few months apart and the Big 12 will be inviting in new blood every time someone else walks out the door, thus keeping the conference alive, albeit weakened. Do you all think the Big 12 will look East (to American schools), to the West (to MWC schools), or some combination of both?
If the B1G grabs Kansas the obvious gem addition would be Notre Dame, but that would be a pipe dream at best. Also up for possible grab would be Missouri depending on if they are still sore at being snubbed in the Nebraska fiasco. An eastern school would also be an option. Maybe in the eastern list would be a number of: U. Conn, Virginia, U. North Carolina, Clemson, or Georgia Tech.
Personally, I see the PAC12 getting 1st dibs on the Texhoma 4, with them saying yes (PAC12 will not deviate from equal profit share, too many powerful institutions out west will not allow UT to have their way in the PAC regardless of who else they invite). The BiG then probably gets the duo of Kansas, Kansas St. and the SEC waiting on the ACC to open up. The remaining schools (TCU, Baylor, Iowa St., West Virginia) will invite schools to replace the top 6 leaving as best as they can. This list would include, but not limited to: Cincinnati, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston, Tulsa, SMU, and Northern Illinois.
With the ACC - I think that some schools can be convinced to leave at the right time. This list would be topped by: North Carolina St., and Virginia Tech. The SEC is looking at going east. If they can't get the Oklahoma the Kansas schools, look for the SEC to go north east.