Some points in the blog are well-taken, and others seem a bit off.
I have never heard the PAC-10 proclaim that they feel compelled to expand to 12 after the Big Ten does. They may do that, but I don't believe the conference office has ever released such a statement.
Not sure LaTech will have the leverage to tell the WAC what to do. Should the WAC drop to 8 (and with no football-playing FCS-> FBS potential move-ups west of Texas), the WAC's only expansion options might be:
a) raid C-USA or MWC (not gonna happen)
b) try to lure North Texas from the Sun-Belt
c) wait for the moratorium to end, and grab some move-ups from the Southland Conference.
Regardless of whether this is what LaTech would want, it may be the WAC's only options.
The initial premise is that the Sun-Belt will be down to 11, following imminent departure of New Orleans, and later departure of Denver. OK, I think we're on board with that much of it.
However, being the bottom rung on the FBS ladder necessarily puts the Sun-Belt in a reactionary position. They need to be engaged in some "game-playing" in terms of contingency planning. One way the Sun-Belt can survive is if C-USA splits, and the western schools want to take in more Texas-centric move-ups. If the C-USA East teams that want to depart lack critical mass (5 or fewer schools, such as: Marshall, ECU, UCF, UAB, Southern Miss), they might look to the Sun-Belt.
This scenario could unfold if the BE takes some C-USA East schools and a few remaining C-USA East schools feel isolated.
We are not the decision makers, and to guess how this all plays out is pure speculation. It would appear the Big Ten will set things in motion, and (like in 2003) the shake-out will trickle down to the Sun-Belt. When things do shake out, this 6/5 rule could likely play a big part in determining which conference entities survive... it'll be a numbers game and depend on which conferences further up the ladder expand to how many, and with whom. The Sun-Belt office might be having some conversations with various Southeastern colleges now, as part of their contingency planning.....
If the Big East ever expanded with UCF and CUSA with NMSU, North Texas, La Tech, etc... I wonder how ECU and Marshall would feel about that. When looking at CUSA vs the MAC, it's almost worth considering this: would Marshall and ECU be better off in the MAC vs a Texas-based CUSA?