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 Post subject: what happens now?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 8:44 pm 
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Does the SEC, PAC-12,ACC and BIG10 go to 16 and CUSA and MWC go to 12 or 16? What Happens to the BIG 12 which is in most cases gone then the BIG10 and ACC divide up the BIG EAST which becomes a basketball conference again. "Lord knows what happens to the WAC" does Texas State, UTSA And others join the Sunbelt to make it a 12 team or more league? What happens to the schools moving up from FCS or Division 1-AA? ie Georgia State, App St, Villanova and others? How many right now do we know is moving up?

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:04 pm 
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footballgod wrote:
Does the SEC, PAC-12,ACC and BIG10 go to 16 and CUSA and MWC go to 12 or 16? What Happens to the BIG 12 which is in most cases gone then the BIG10 and ACC divide up the BIG EAST which becomes a basketball conference again. "Lord knows what happens to the WAC" does Texas State, UTSA And others join the Sunbelt to make it a 12 team or more league? What happens to the schools moving up from FCS or Division 1-AA? ie Georgia State, App St, Villanova and others? How many right now do we know is moving up?

My guess is the 4 (or 6 with a MWC/WAC and Big East/Big12/CUSA) 16 team conference split off and create a BCS league separate from the FBS thus creating a third football division of D1. They'd take the most attractive bowls games and establish some sort of playoff system.

The rest of the old FBS (MAC SBC and other leftovers) will either voluntarily downgrade to the FCS or attempt to change the rules (like number of scholarships, minimum attendance and sports sponsorships) to make it more attractive and easier for the stronger FCS schools and conferences like the Big Sky, Southland, CAA, and others to upgrade and leave the weaker ones behind.

This could also be the start of a Super League (or the nuclear option) where the new BCS league completely breaks away from the NCAA and creates a new governing body that hosts a new tourney for football, basketball, and even other sports like softball and baseball. A few sports may stay in the NCAA (like hockey or LAX) but for the most part this would be completely separate.

Of course everything could stay the same too...

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:22 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
footballgod wrote:
Does the SEC, PAC-12,ACC and BIG10 go to 16 and CUSA and MWC go to 12 or 16? What Happens to the BIG 12 which is in most cases gone then the BIG10 and ACC divide up the BIG EAST which becomes a basketball conference again. "Lord knows what happens to the WAC" does Texas State, UTSA And others join the Sunbelt to make it a 12 team or more league? What happens to the schools moving up from FCS or Division 1-AA? ie Georgia State, App St, Villanova and others? How many right now do we know is moving up?

My guess is the 4 (or 6 with a MWC/WAC and Big East/Big12/CUSA) 16 team conference split off and create a BCS league separate from the FBS thus creating a third football division of D1. They'd take the most attractive bowls games and establish some sort of playoff system.

The rest of the old FBS (MAC SBC and other leftovers) will either voluntarily downgrade to the FCS or attempt to change the rules (like number of scholarships, minimum attendance and sports sponsorships) to make it more attractive and easier for the stronger FCS schools and conferences like the Big Sky, Southland, CAA, and others to upgrade and leave the weaker ones behind.

This could also be the start of a Super League (or the nuclear option) where the new BCS league completely breaks away from the NCAA and creates a new governing body that hosts a new tourney for football, basketball, and even other sports like softball and baseball. A few sports may stay in the NCAA (like hockey or LAX) but for the most part this would be completely separate.

Of course everything could stay the same too...


I just dont see BCS leaving the NCAA yet but for now I see it as D1-A with the MAC and Sunbelt dropping back to D1-AA or FCS with schools wanting in not allowed " kinda like wall street hedge funds ha." I can see schools that don't allow scholarships for athletics ie you Ivy league schools move out of Division 1 back down to Division 3 where they belong and schools with no football be kicked out or downgraded to Division 2 or 3 until they get a football program or they can stay there if they like for example UNO is getting a football program started I figure in about 5 to 7 years they just might want back in the SUNBELT Conference.

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:14 pm 
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footballgod wrote:
Does the SEC, PAC-12,ACC and BIG10 go to 16 and CUSA and MWC go to 12 or 16? What Happens to the BIG 12 which is in most cases gone then the BIG10 and ACC divide up the BIG EAST which becomes a basketball conference again. "Lord knows what happens to the WAC" does Texas State, UTSA And others join the Sunbelt to make it a 12 team or more league? What happens to the schools moving up from FCS or Division 1-AA? ie Georgia State, App St, Villanova and others? How many right now do we know is moving up?

Sorry if you were simply asking for a conference lineup I can do that too...

Quinn had a story on what he thinks will happen here http://collegesportsinfo.com/2011/09/03 ... y-to-fall/

But this is my take in order...
The SEC adds A&M soon despite Baylor's legal maneuverings. (SEC=13, Big12=9)
The PAC12 adds OU and OSU. (PAC12=14, Big12=7)
Texas agrees to dump or revise the LHN and joins the PAC14 w/ Tech. (PAC14=16, Big 12=5)
The SEC add Mizzou as #14 right away. (SEC=14, Big12=4)
The Big East either jumps in and takes the final Big 12 members Kansas, K St, Iowa St, and even Baylor (since TCU has no vote yet and can't block them) for a 13/21 split or they create a new conference leaving the non-fb schools and adding Nova/Temple/UCF/UH for a new 14 team league.

At this point its obvious that the B1G and SEC are top dogs and the ACC is next while the BE is last...so either way they'll all get to 16 sooner than later. This probably all hinges on ND either they get dumped by a new BE/B12 hybrid conference (unlikely) or find that the new 20+ team Big East is too big, or the BE is destroyed by the SEC/ACC raids (most likely).
Either way the end result is that the SEC will take 2 from the BE(WV/Lville) or ACC (FL St/Clemson/UNC/VA Tech) and the B1G will take ND and 3 others (Maryland/VA/BC/Pitt/KU/Cuse/Rut/UConn), then the ACC will take the best 16 from the Big East (and possibly Temple) and be the final major super conference.

I see the SEC adding West Virginia since they are a flagship school and have similar culture that more akin to the SEC than the ACC or B1G, plus they have no baggage which is good. I also think that the gentleman's agreement between the SEC schools will not stop them from offering Florida St as the 16th school. Not only would adding another school in one of the most populated states help put the Florida TV market squarely in the SEC's corner (even a combo of Miami/USF/UCF won't stand a chance) it will also help recruiting and give them a Nebraska type splash that will turn heads and keep them ahead on the new PAC16 (w/ TX/OU) or B1G (w/ Neb/ND). I think VA Tech, and UNC won't be able to leave their in state conference mates and Lville doesn't have enough appeal to get the invite. Clemson is the wildcard here but I think adding them give you less market penetration than FSU (since its a way bigger state that can support 2 SEC programs) and WVU (since its a new state who alums/fans are dispersed all around like DC, VA, NC, OH, PN) most people in SC already watch both Clemson and USC so adding them will do little.

For the B1G I see them grabbing teams in the Big Eastern markets so besides ND (for obvious reason) Syracuse, Rutgers, and Boston College would help them get a strong foothold in the NY/NJ/NE markets, plus as I mentioned on here these schools would give ND a better reason to join and help the new B1G hockey league (ND/BC) and get them a B1G LAX league going (Mich, tOSU, PSU, ND, Cuse, Rutgers). I think the VA/NC schools are too far away and to politically intertwined into the ACC, Maryland is a real option but I think the B1G would rather dominate the Northeast (only UConn is left up there) than try to compete with ACC in the heart of its footprint.

Once those leagues expand I see the ACC adding Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Temple, Kansas, and K St (hey their bball is good and they've won a NC in fb too). BYU is a longshot here over Temple or K St but I really don't think they or ISU, Cinncy, USF, Baylor, TCU have a shot at being involved...

After this the MWC and CUSA could fight over the scraps and raid the WAC/MAC/SBC in hopes that they be included in whatever comes next but its highly unlikely.

Still I think CUSA will grab Baylor, Iowa St, Cinncy, and USF to get to 16 while the MWC will add TCU, BYU, Utah St, San Jose St, Idaho, and New Mexico St (I know, sad right?), I guess Montana could be a possibility and even LA Tech, UNT, UTSA, TX St, but I doubt it...that would pretty much kill the WAC.

The MAC could expand (already at 14) and grab Villanova (if they upgrade and get left out) to replace Temple and then Youngstown St and another random upgrade (UDel?) or steal WKU or MTSU from the SBC.

The SBC would be basically untouched could take LA Tech, UTSA, TX St, App St, and two other upgrades (or NM St if they get left out) like Richmond, Lamar, SHSU.....the list goes on and on...

Obviously this get complicated and one or two moves differently at the top would change everything but that is my crazy theory on this...

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:44 pm 
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Everyone thinks we're about to go to hell in a hand basket. I said it last year and I still believe it. Texas will not give in and join the Pac 12. And without Texas, adding OU and OSU makes no sense (and OU won't leave Texas).

SEC adds A&M and one eastern school. If it's a BE school, no biggie, if it's an ACC school, than a BE leaves for the ACC. SEC will not go to 16 just yet. They need to be sure they'll be happy at 14 first.

Big 12 adds Houston, BYU, and Air Force.

Big East adds UCF, may accept Nova upgrade now.

C-USA adds either FIU or FAU

MWC adds USU, UTEP, SMU or SJSU....I think SMU :( Hawaii added full time or non football Denver is brought in.

C-USA adds N. Texas, Temple or lack of Texas influence lures Rice, Tulsa, and maybe Tulane to WAC (unlikely).

Sun Belt adds FCS upgrade(s) Appy State maybe other upgrades.

WAC adds Lamar and anyone else trying to make the upgrade.


If I've done my math correctly, only the WAC and SB aren't hosting conference championship games (though the SB could go to 12 easier than the WAC). Down the road, if the SEC feels 16 will work, they will do it.


Last edited by SJSUFan2010 on Thu Sep 08, 2011 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:09 am 
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SEANBO REALIGNMENT


THE BCS CONFERENCES

THE NORTH--(The Big 10)--Michigan, Michigan State , Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, NOTRE DAME, MARYLAND, RUTGERS along with Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin, KANSAS

THE SOUTH--(The SEC)--Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, VIRGINIA TECH, WEST VIRGINIA with Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, TEXAS A&M, MISSOURI

THE WEST--(The PAC West)--Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, Southern Cal, Washington, Wazzu with Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, Zona, TEXAS, TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA, OKLAHOMA STATE

THE EAST--(The ACC)--Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Wake, with Boston College, Virginia, UCONN, LOUISVILLE, PITT, SYRACUSE, ARMY, NAVY

THE FBS CONFERENCES

Big XII/Mountain West--Boise State, Fresno, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming, BRIGHAM YOUNG with Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, BAYLOR, IOWA STATE, KANSAS STATE, HOUSTON, TCU

Conference USA-- Alabama-Birmingham, UCF, East Carolina, Marshall, USF, APPALACHIAN STATE, CINCINNATI, TEMPLE with Memphis, Southern Miss, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, NORTH TEXAS

THE MAC--Ball State, Central Michigan, Miami, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WESTERN KENTUCKY with Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, UMass, Toledo, DELAWARE

WAC--Idaho, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Texas State, UT-San Antonio, Utah State, MONTANA, MONTANA STATE with the
SUN BELT-- Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, LOUISIANA TECH, South Alabama, Troy


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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:28 am 
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tkalmus wrote:
footballgod wrote:
Does the SEC, PAC-12,ACC and BIG10 go to 16 and CUSA and MWC go to 12 or 16? What Happens to the BIG 12 which is in most cases gone then the BIG10 and ACC divide up the BIG EAST which becomes a basketball conference again. "Lord knows what happens to the WAC" does Texas State, UTSA And others join the Sunbelt to make it a 12 team or more league? What happens to the schools moving up from FCS or Division 1-AA? ie Georgia State, App St, Villanova and others? How many right now do we know is moving up?

Sorry if you were simply asking for a conference lineup I can do that too...

Quinn had a story on what he thinks will happen here http://collegesportsinfo.com/2011/09/03 ... y-to-fall/

But this is my take in order...
The SEC adds A&M soon despite Baylor's legal maneuverings. (SEC=13, Big12=9)
The PAC12 adds OU and OSU. (PAC12=14, Big12=7)
Texas agrees to dump or revise the LHN and joins the PAC14 w/ Tech. (PAC14=16, Big 12=5)
The SEC add Mizzou as #14 right away. (SEC=14, Big12=4)
The Big East either jumps in and takes the final Big 12 members Kansas, K St, Iowa St, and even Baylor (since TCU has no vote yet and can't block them) for a 13/21 split or they create a new conference leaving the non-fb schools and adding Nova/Temple/UCF/UH for a new 14 team league.

At this point its obvious that the B1G and SEC are top dogs and the ACC is next while the BE is last...so either way they'll all get to 16 sooner than later. This probably all hinges on ND either they get dumped by a new BE/B12 hybrid conference (unlikely) or find that the new 20+ team Big East is too big, or the BE is destroyed by the SEC/ACC raids (most likely).
Either way the end result is that the SEC will take 2 from the BE(WV/Lville) or ACC (FL St/Clemson/UNC/VA Tech) and the B1G will take ND and 3 others (Maryland/VA/BC/Pitt/KU/Cuse/Rut/UConn), then the ACC will take the best 16 from the Big East (and possibly Temple) and be the final major super conference.

I see the SEC adding West Virginia since they are a flagship school and have similar culture that more akin to the SEC than the ACC or B1G, plus they have no baggage which is good. I also think that the gentleman's agreement between the SEC schools will not stop them from offering Florida St as the 16th school. Not only would adding another school in one of the most populated states help put the Florida TV market squarely in the SEC's corner (even a combo of Miami/USF/UCF won't stand a chance) it will also help recruiting and give them a Nebraska type splash that will turn heads and keep them ahead on the new PAC16 (w/ TX/OU) or B1G (w/ Neb/ND). I think VA Tech, and UNC won't be able to leave their in state conference mates and Lville doesn't have enough appeal to get the invite. Clemson is the wildcard here but I think adding them give you less market penetration than FSU (since its a way bigger state that can support 2 SEC programs) and WVU (since its a new state who alums/fans are dispersed all around like DC, VA, NC, OH, PN) most people in SC already watch both Clemson and USC so adding them will do little.

For the B1G I see them grabbing teams in the Big Eastern markets so besides ND (for obvious reason) Syracuse, Rutgers, and Boston College would help them get a strong foothold in the NY/NJ/NE markets, plus as I mentioned on here these schools would give ND a better reason to join and help the new B1G hockey league (ND/BC) and get them a B1G LAX league going (Mich, tOSU, PSU, ND, Cuse, Rutgers). I think the VA/NC schools are too far away and to politically intertwined into the ACC, Maryland is a real option but I think the B1G would rather dominate the Northeast (only UConn is left up there) than try to compete with ACC in the heart of its footprint.

Once those leagues expand I see the ACC adding Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Temple, Kansas, and K St (hey their bball is good and they've won a NC in fb too). BYU is a longshot here over Temple or K St but I really don't think they or ISU, Cinncy, USF, Baylor, TCU have a shot at being involved...

After this the MWC and CUSA could fight over the scraps and raid the WAC/MAC/SBC in hopes that they be included in whatever comes next but its highly unlikely.

Still I think CUSA will grab Baylor, Iowa St, Cinncy, and USF to get to 16 while the MWC will add TCU, BYU, Utah St, San Jose St, Idaho, and New Mexico St (I know, sad right?), I guess Montana could be a possibility and even LA Tech, UNT, UTSA, TX St, but I doubt it...that would pretty much kill the WAC.

The MAC could expand (already at 14) and grab Villanova (if they upgrade and get left out) to replace Temple and then Youngstown St and another random upgrade (UDel?) or steal WKU or MTSU from the SBC.

The SBC would be basically untouched could take LA Tech, UTSA, TX St, App St, and two other upgrades (or NM St if they get left out) like Richmond, Lamar, SHSU.....the list goes on and on...

Obviously this get complicated and one or two moves differently at the top would change everything but that is my crazy theory on this...





I pretty much have stopped discussing the conference realignment topics on general message boards for the reason that things change very fast and unless you are really focused on the topic, you get left behind. For instance, people on general forums will time to time, post a link to a "conference realignment" story in say, discussing TAMU to SEC. But if posted even a day later, it can be completely outdated.

That said, the article you linked to that was written on September 3rd, is pretty outdated. even what was written yesterday morning (http://collegesportsinfo.com/2011/09/07 ... ent-moves/) is outdated.

At this point, based on just 2 phone calls, I think that what I originally thought as gospel is what is likely to happen. I stressed here int he past that the ideal position for Texas is for them to be in a smaller conference where they can have more control and more games on the LHN. More control equal more control over schedule, meaning better chance of better record. And since the BCS has made it clear that once you're in the BCS club, it's pretty much a life membership (Big East lost it's 2 real good programs, 1 good, with only 2 "good" remaining, and brought in an FCS school, a 4 year FBS program, a then up-and-coming Petrino led Lousiville squad that since has stepped backwards and Cincy)...then a texas led Big 12 will be fine. Ideally, Oklahoma would remain (and OSU). But if they leave, then Texas can still rebuild. Doesnt' matter if it's a 5 school Big East raid, or adding MWC or CUSA schools.

Regardless, Texas leaning towards staying in the Big 12 is their power grab, their attempt to be in the position of control that seemingly they lost with the TAMU and then Oklahoma talks. It's actually very interesting from a social standpoint as we see the alpha dynamic change day to day, where Oklahoma challenged Texas, seemed to take over the alpha spot, and now Texas is fighting back. Greed is the motivator, and once again, if the B12 survives (and Oklahoma leaves) Texas will be the savior. But if they were the savior this time with tAMU/OU and OSU leaving, it will be a PR win for Texas WITH them holding on the the alpha spot. Interesting stuff to watch.

Pete Thammel had a great tweet yesterday which I retweeted at http://twitter.com/ncaasports. It still holds true today.

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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2011 10:54 am 
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What I see happening...

The PAC-12 adds the big 4 (Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas Tech) and goes to 16.

The SEC adds Texas A&M, and then goes after 3 in the SEC, with Virginia Tech and NC State as their top choices (therefore expanding their footprint up the east coast with new states). Florida St. is probably their 3rd choice. Not sure if they get Virginia Tech, or NC State, though. This will put the SEC at 16.

The ACC then takes teams from the Big East, and goes after Army and Navy. I think they go for Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers, Army, Navy, West Virginia, and Connecticut.

The instability in the Big East then sends Notre Dame to the Big Ten (which then changes its name to the Big-16. They also raid the Big East in order to get to 16. They will then change their logo to B16, with the 6 looking halfway between a G and a 6).


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 Post subject: Re: what happens now?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:20 am 
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I've loosened my hold on the idea that states should be more consolidated in conferences. I have some positive thoughts about "conference crossover" now. I think it makes things interesting in Florida, GA, SC where you have SEC and ACC schools who have the school-to-school competition on and off the field, but also the SEC vs ACC rivalry factor. This will happen in Texas too where TAMU will be in the SEc and Texas in the (Place Conference Name Here). Iowa has B10 vs B12. PA has PSU in B10, Pitt in BE.

So personally, I think it would be somewhat cool is you had the SEC with VA TEch (VA), NC State (NC) and a 16th like FSU. Problem of course being that only the SEc benefits. Not like the ACC can follow the same path with Uconn, Cuse, Rutgers which would be the likely top picks. Pitt as a 16th might make the Pitt/MD vs Penn St something, but a stretch,

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