fighting muskie wrote:
Let me posit a hypothetical scenario: if another major conference shift occurs in let's say 5 years or when ever the Big 12 and ACC GOR are up what happens to the American? Do the western members end up casting their lot with the schools left over from the Big 12 raid? Do some of the eastern members end up with the left behind ACC schools?
I'm inclined to think that the 5 truly western schools go with whoever is left in the Big 12 simply for their markets (Houston, the other half of the DFW market, New Orleans, and Memphis) and to fill a geographic gap (Tulsa). The Cincinnati bearcats could be in the mix too if WVU is still with the Big 12 group and not with the ACC group.
It's the eastern schools I'm not so sure about. If any ACC schools in NC are left (which I imagine at least WF will be) then ECU will face opposition. BC hates UConn. If the ACC has any FL schools left then UCF and USF will likely both be blocked
If the ACC loses any members they will add UConn, Cincy, and WVU in a heartbeat, USF might squeak in if they lose 1 FL school, UCF if they lose both, and ECU isn't getting in unless UNC/NCSU/Duke all bolt, UMass won't get in unless BC leaves, Buffalo won't get in unless Syracuse leaves, and Temple is a wildcard.
Future Big 12 - TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis + Rice, UTSA, Arkansas St, LA Tech and SoMiss (UTEP/UAB as alternates).
Future AAC Eastern targets - UAB, GA State, MTSU, UNCC, ODU, Marshall, UMass, Buffalo, JMU (if Navy leaves), App St (if ECU leaves), FAU/FIU (if USF/UCF leave)
I know you posted this back in September, but I am curious as to where you see UCF and USF in the pecking order of conference realignment. Today UCF did something USF never did, and that was to win the AAC/Big East conference championship.
If the Big 12 does lose the Texhoma 4 in the future, do you see the Big 10 going after Kansas and Kansas State as well as Iowa State? I can't see how that would help them with TV markets, or football, or really anything other than quality schools in terms of educational value. That being said, don't you think they would be able to find better alternatives in the ACC? I believe the only way the Big 10 goes after Kansas and the others is if they are trying to make a play for Oklahoma and Texas.
But assuming the Big 12 does lose the Texhoma 4 somewhere down the road, how does that impact their TV contracts? I can see some logic in adding a few more Texas schools like SMU and Houston, but not Rice, La Tech and So Miss. I think the best play for the Big 12 would be to try and get Cincy, Tulane (if they continue to improve over the next 5 years, I think they are better than La Tech, otherwise, I agree with you on La Tech) and UCF and USF. The I-4 Corridor could belong to the Big 12 in a few years. That would draw a lot of TV sets. which I would imagine would be good for TV contracts.