Agree - losing one (1) school (I guess the rumors would lead you to think it'd be Cincy or Houston) shouldn't be THAT traumatic.
I think the AAC would pull in UMass and move on. UConn shouldn't freak out over that.
If however, the Big XII went to 14 and added BYU, Houston, Memphis, and Cincy, the loss of those 3 schools would sort of "gut" AAC football.
ESPN might downgrade the AAC to CUSA money (nest to nuthin'...).
This would have zero effect on the MWC.
Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane might now feel a bit isolated. Would they be happier back in CUSA ?
The East Coast remnants of AAC would be: UConn, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF, and Navy (FB only).
I could see them looking to UMass, Army (FB only), James Madison, ODU, UNC-Charlotte, maybe Marshall....
The question I would have is that would Navy prefer to go back to the independent ranks in football. I think the mwc may debate possibly taking a AAC western school should they want to replace Hawaii with a all sports school.
If we add all the schools you mentioned minus Army and Navy we would have a 10 team conference. Maybe if they try and get buffalo and coastal Carolina they could split North and South.