American Athletic Conference Realignment & Expansion Thread

fighting muskie · **Posted:** Tue Mar 26, 2013 9:56 pm

Looking forward I am curious as to what the New Big East/America 12/Metro Conference will look like if and when UConn and/or Cincinnati leave---

The league has a nice western block of Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, and Houston. Should Cincy or UConn leave I think the logical move would be to add a western team that fits well with this block rather than trying to shoehorn an eastern school into this division. i'm thinking that within 5 years UTSA will be ready to move to a better conference and they would fit in well as the 6th western school. There is always Rice--the private schools are very loyal to the Owls but their tiny alumni-base and inability to get the city of Houston excited about them makes me think that the the nBE should go with the upstart roadrunners instead.

Thoughts?

TKthunder · **Joined:** Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:40 pm **Posts:** 1584

fighting muskie wrote:

Looking forward I am curious as to what the New Big East/America 12/Metro Conference will look like if and when UConn and/or Cincinnati leave---

The league has a nice western block of Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, and Houston. Should Cincy or UConn leave I think the logical move would be to add a western team that fits well with this block rather than trying to shoehorn an eastern school into this division. i'm thinking that within 5 years UTSA will be ready to move to a better conference and they would fit in well as the 6th western school. There is always Rice--the private schools are very loyal to the Owls but their tiny alumni-base and inability to get the city of Houston excited about them makes me think that the the nBE should go with the upstart roadrunners instead.

Thoughts?

I've been saying this the whole time but mostly in context of "if Navy doesn't join".

IMO in the SW, Rice and USM are the current favorites, but I always throw it UTSA and LA Tech.

Rice because they're AAU and of the private school camaraderie (Tulane, Tulsa, SMU) plus the city of Houston is behind them (though maybe not so much the fans) so politically the U of Houston would have to support them too.

So Miss would be the fb pick, Tulane and Memphis may like this pick better as is gives them a school a bit closer to home, but they bring virtually no media market. With Rice you at least are doubling up on what is now one of the biggest market the conference can claim. But if this new conference need more fb power and USM is winning CUSA every year then they have a really good chance of getting in.

LA Tech is interesting but I don't know if Tulane will block them or not. They have good fb and are in between two mid sized markets (Shreveport/Bossier & Monroe) so if they just start win CUSA titles left and right I think they could also have a real shot.

UTSA is the most intriguing school. Politically the University of Houston doesn't want another public school moving up in the conference realignment race as they are trying to establish themselves in the same category as UT/A&M/Tech and adding UTSA further associates them with a lesser public school within the state, and while that's not fair it is perception (which is one of the reasons I thought Houston joining the MWC might happen). Also SMU isn't crazy about any public state school that wasn't in the SWC.

That being said, if UTSA does well in CUSA and wins a few fb titles and gets a BCS bid then adding them will be a no brainer, otherwise I think they would need to be told by ESPN/FOX/NBC/CBS that UTSA will get them extra money or be the only way to maintain their current level of TV money for them to be added over Rice/SoMiss/LA Tech who all at least have some nation name recognition and are likely viewed as closer to these schools in many ways. UTSA is a good one to keep an eye on in the coming years, I'd love for them to do well.

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8631

ECU site release with announcement that ECU as expected,has officially accepted all sports membership into BE FB league at http://www.ecupirates.com/genrel/032713aaa.html

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8631

Mark Blaudschun blog article discussing BE FB league branding and expansion situation at http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=6148

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8631

More from Mark Blaudschun regarding BE FB league at http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=6167

Michaelkstevens · **Joined:** Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:45 pm **Posts:** 2

New Big East should add Army , UMass , Air Force and BYU ... Go to sixteen total for Football ... Fourteen for ALL other sports .. This would assure them a good media contract .. Lots of coverage on the Armed Forces network ... And access to quality Bowl opportunities ...

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8631

Tulsa World article with more on expected Tulsa to BE FB league membership announcement at http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article. ... eTul637572

jlog3000 · **Posted:** Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:58 am

Michaelkstevens wrote:

New Big East should add Army , UMass , Air Force and BYU ... Go to sixteen total for Football ... Fourteen for ALL other sports .. This would assure them a good media contract .. Lots of coverage on the Armed Forces network ... And access to quality Bowl opportunities ...

Love your way of thinking on this one, but expect having BYU and Air Force. The TBD conference should not be the "Great West Conference" type of conference in the D-I FBS level. Regardless of how Army competes in some sports, at least it'll be geographically fit, just like Navy, and as football-only members. UMass would make a great addition and to keep its rivalry with Temple on some sports (football and basketball to be exact like on their old A-10 days).

By the way, now with Tulsa officially joining the fb-spekked Big East conference without a yet official name while Western Kentucky replacing Tulsa's spot as of 2014, I assume that it'll find another school from C-USA while C-USA would find another member from the Sun Belt to replace that on in years to come.

tute79 · **Joined:** Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:25 pm **Posts:** 2156

Agree.
But Army doesn't want to get beaten up in a conference, they want to play an independent schedule and get beaten up by teams from all over... go figure...
And Air Force doesn't want to split up their sports (I think).
And I think BYU will make more money in their current situation.

Ideally UMass could be all-sports #12, and Army & Navy both for FB only to get it to 12/14.

louisvillecard01 · **Joined:** Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:04 pm **Posts:** 544

The BE before it broke up, tried some of this---trying for BYU, Air Force, etc., before it broke apart and Boise State & SDSU backed-out.
Having all the service academy fb programs in the same conference would be a nice financial enhancement if it could be pulled off in a good way.
Agree tute79, BYU shall stay fb independent, given the PAC12 will not invite them; and apparently nothing has been worked out with the B12 so far. BYU would want a major conference friendly to their special terms.
If the fb/unnamed-nBE goes around 16, they do risk more unsettlement with their eastern schools unless expansion includes UMass and/or Army or another from the east.

If this conference is really trending westward/southwest, and most of the eastern schools eventually leave, one wonders about a could have: resurrecting the old name of 'Southwest Conference' and have both schools or so that have rights to the name. It has sentimental value at least.

Is the fb-nBE, or whatever it is to be called, is really superior in content to C-USA, and some in the MWC? The leaders of fb-nBE, C-USA, MWC, maybe even the SunBelt & MAC, should really all get together and have a summit and discuss regional profiles and make certain transitions. While new markets and venues have their merit, some have stretched themselves in less practical ways. Of course they won't converse or agree for their collective overall good, and all this disjointed decision-making shall continue and compositions shall continue to be coupled with instability along with TV greatly impacting who to add among more strange and narrow options. Having an identifiable and stable footprint in a 'region', even for a mid-major level, has value too, and that should be kept in mind. The MAC has not been so much 'all over the place', yet they have maintained a sense of stability and commonality. While they are real low on the general pecking order, they have avoided some of the troubling aspects so far.

tute79 · **Joined:** Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:25 pm **Posts:** 2156

I don't think the 5 conferences lay out that badly, after Marinatto was fired and the Big East super-hybridization unraveled.

I would characterize them thusly (aftet the big 5):

Conf. TBD - Rank 6A - Top schools in Eastern / Central time zones
MWC - Rank 6B - Top schools in Mountain / Pacific / Hawaii time zones (mirror of the Conf. TBD)
MAC - Rank 8 - Upper Mid-west / Great Lakes
CUSA - Rank 9 (was ranked higher, but better schools migrated to Conf. TBD). Texas to Virginia (South-east / Lower Mid-west)
Sun-Belt - Rank 10 (better schools migrated to CUSA). geographic over-lap with CUSA (Texas to Virginia = South-east / lower Mid-west).

We COULD be done with FBS re-alignment for a while, pending the following:
1. Sun-Belt adds team #12 (expecting it to be JMU).
2. B1G settles on divisional alignment for FB.
3. Conf. TBD settles on a new name.
4. B1G and Big XII settle on staying with their current number of schools for the time being (14 and 10, respectively).

TKthunder · **Joined:** Fri Sep 10, 2010 11:40 pm **Posts:** 1584

tute79 wrote:

I don't think the 5 conferences lay out that badly, after Marinatto was fired and the Big East super-hybridization unraveled.

I would characterize them thusly (aftet the big 5):

Conf. TBD - Rank 6A - Top schools in Eastern / Central time zones
MWC - Rank 6B - Top schools in Mountain / Pacific / Hawaii time zones (mirror of the Conf. TBD)
MAC - Rank 8 - Upper Mid-west / Great Lakes
CUSA - Rank 9 (was ranked higher, but better schools migrated to Conf. TBD). Texas to Virginia (South-east / Lower Mid-west)
Sun-Belt - Rank 10 (better schools migrated to CUSA). geographic over-lap with CUSA (Texas to Virginia = South-east / lower Mid-west).

We COULD be done with FBS re-alignment for a while, pending the following:
1. Sun-Belt adds team #12 (expecting it to be JMU).
2. B1G settles on divisional alignment for FB.
3. Conf. TBD settles on a new name.
4. B1G and Big XII settle on staying with their current number of schools for the time being (14 and 10, respectively).

Other possible issues...

MAC #14 (could be fb only could not) still not major if FCS upgrade but could be a steal from CUSA/SB (Marshall, ODU, JMU)
Navy doesn't join Conference TBD (While it sounds like it will happen, I won't fully believe it until July 2015)
BYU and MWC decides that BYU can keep its TV deal a join in all sports along with a 14th

Still relative to a year ago, this is a pretty short list but don't overlook the B1G, they're waiting on the MD lawsuit and still have a tV deal up for negotiation soon...they may once again start a whole new wave of realignment.

freaked4collegefb · **Joined:** Tue Jun 13, 2006 2:37 pm **Posts:** 8631

Tulsa World article reporting that Tulsa is expected to officially announce BE FB league invite at 10:30 am (local)presser tomorrow at http://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsextra/T ... ring756448

Dennis · **Joined:** Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:07 pm **Posts:** 80

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

tkalmus wrote:

Dennis wrote:

freaked4collegefb wrote:

Mark Blaudschun blog article discussing new BE FB name and ECU situation at http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=6023

While it certainly appears that ECU will be elevated to full member, I question whether that makes sense.

Historically, ECU has a worse basketball RPI than any team in the conference, including Tulane, UCF, and USF, current season not withstanding. Why would the basketball schools (UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis) accept a school that will lower the conference's basketball RPI, when there is really no need to do so?

As a full member, ECU would get a full share of the conference's media revenue. While the difference may be only a few hundred thousand dollars per year, this conference cannot really afford to pay more than necessary. And why pay ECU to lower the conference's basketball RPI?

There are no all-sports conference members anywhere close to ECU, making significant olympic sport travel cost savings unlikely. ECU is a flight trip, not a bus trip. Stopping at ECU to get another game on a road trip would mean another flight (or two) for the traveling team, and they could just as easily stop at Memphis, Temple, or Cincinnati. In any case, cost of a flight often has more to do with the particular lane than with distance.

Ideal conference size may be 10 full members plus 2 football-only members. Why go to 11 + 1?

I've made this very same point before too, but the general consensus is that its "the right thing to do" so they'll do it...

If I was the commish or a schools AD/prez I'd think long and hard about this issue before adding them as full members. If Navy backs out then I tend to think that it would be a no brainer to invite them because they'll want 12 all sports members but if Navy joins up it makes a lot of sense to just stay at 10.

tkalmus wrote:

Unless they want 10 all sports members and 2 fb onlys (ECU/Navy) 11 just isn't as clean (I know the Big Ten did it, but that was for Penn St, and the MWC is doing it but that was to take back BSU/SDSU and to help out long time rival Hawaii's fb)

East Carolina also doesn't really have much nonfb success 0 NCAA championships, 2 NAIA titles (57' men's swimming, '61 baseball), men's ball 2 NAIA & 2 NCAA tourney appearances (lost all four in 1st round) and in 2010 also lost first round of the CIT, women's bball made the NCAA tourney twice (and lost both time in the 1st round), baseball has made the NCAA tourney 25 time but has only gone to 1 super regional (and lost), softball has made the tourney twice but never won a regional, and it sounds like their golf and track are okay (a few all Americans, Olympians, and NCAA individual appearance) but nothing that special.

Couple all that with a small media market and I could see them not getting an invite and letting the current all sports members play round robin in bball, they have 8 for baseball/softball which is enough to sponsor the sports, and plenty for all the normal sports (they may even still be able to sponsor women's rowing) the only benefit to the Big East would be in swimming where they may be a member or two shy of being able two comfortably sponsoring the sport.

It's stupid to tell a school no that was all sports in a conf w/....
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF
Tulane
Memphis
Houston
TCU
S.Miss
UAB
UCF(added in 05)
SMU(added in 05)
Tulsa(added in 05)

...for a conf w/
Cincinnati
USF(3 tourneys)
Tulane(3 tourneys, last 1996)
Memphis
Houston(2 tourneys in last 21 years or 1 in 20)
UCF(4 tourneys)
SMU(last tourney in 1993)
Tulsa(last tourney 2003)
Temple
UConn
Navy(fb)
ECU(2 tourneys, last 1993)

In what world are UConn, Temple so mighty that they trump Louisville, TCU? I'd take that old CUSA over this A12 and ECU good enough for that but not this? ECU middle of the pack bball, SMU, Tulane not better, Houston either. They made it to 1 tourney in 20some years so that's 1 better than ECUs last in 93.

This may be "beating a dead horse" at this point, but just to set the record straight, ECU basketball is not "middle of the pack" - they are bottom feeders.

C-USA winning % 2001 - 2011
Memphis 82.3%
Cincinnati 73.4%
Charlotte 67.2%
Marquette 65.6%
Louisville 65.6%
UTEP 64.9%
UAB 63.9%
Tulsa 59.6%
St. Louis 51.6%
DePaul 50.0%
Marshall 50.0%
Houston 49.4%
UCF 48.9%
TCU 37.5%
Southern Miss. 37.3%
Tulane 34.8%
South Florida 32.8%
SMU 30.9%
East Carolina 26.6%
Rice 25.5%

No one is surprised that ECU was elevated to full membership, but let's not pretend it was a good decision.

Fresno St. Alum · **Joined:** Mon Feb 23, 2009 6:56 pm **Posts:** 2803

Dennis wrote:

Fresno St. Alum wrote:

tkalmus wrote:

Dennis wrote:

freaked4collegefb wrote:

Mark Blaudschun blog article discussing new BE FB name and ECU situation at http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=6023

While it certainly appears that ECU will be elevated to full member, I question whether that makes sense.

Historically, ECU has a worse basketball RPI than any team in the conference, including Tulane, UCF, and USF, current season not withstanding. Why would the basketball schools (UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis) accept a school that will lower the conference's basketball RPI, when there is really no need to do so?

As a full member, ECU would get a full share of the conference's media revenue. While the difference may be only a few hundred thousand dollars per year, this conference cannot really afford to pay more than necessary. And why pay ECU to lower the conference's basketball RPI?

There are no all-sports conference members anywhere close to ECU, making significant olympic sport travel cost savings unlikely. ECU is a flight trip, not a bus trip. Stopping at ECU to get another game on a road trip would mean another flight (or two) for the traveling team, and they could just as easily stop at Memphis, Temple, or Cincinnati. In any case, cost of a flight often has more to do with the particular lane than with distance.

Ideal conference size may be 10 full members plus 2 football-only members. Why go to 11 + 1?

I've made this very same point before too, but the general consensus is that its "the right thing to do" so they'll do it...

If I was the commish or a schools AD/prez I'd think long and hard about this issue before adding them as full members. If Navy backs out then I tend to think that it would be a no brainer to invite them because they'll want 12 all sports members but if Navy joins up it makes a lot of sense to just stay at 10.

tkalmus wrote:

Unless they want 10 all sports members and 2 fb onlys (ECU/Navy) 11 just isn't as clean (I know the Big Ten did it, but that was for Penn St, and the MWC is doing it but that was to take back BSU/SDSU and to help out long time rival Hawaii's fb)

East Carolina also doesn't really have much nonfb success 0 NCAA championships, 2 NAIA titles (57' men's swimming, '61 baseball), men's ball 2 NAIA & 2 NCAA tourney appearances (lost all four in 1st round) and in 2010 also lost first round of the CIT, women's bball made the NCAA tourney twice (and lost both time in the 1st round), baseball has made the NCAA tourney 25 time but has only gone to 1 super regional (and lost), softball has made the tourney twice but never won a regional, and it sounds like their golf and track are okay (a few all Americans, Olympians, and NCAA individual appearance) but nothing that special.

Couple all that with a small media market and I could see them not getting an invite and letting the current all sports members play round robin in bball, they have 8 for baseball/softball which is enough to sponsor the sports, and plenty for all the normal sports (they may even still be able to sponsor women's rowing) the only benefit to the Big East would be in swimming where they may be a member or two shy of being able two comfortably sponsoring the sport.

It's stupid to tell a school no that was all sports in a conf w/....
Cincinnati
Louisville
USF
Tulane
Memphis
Houston
TCU
S.Miss
UAB
UCF(added in 05)
SMU(added in 05)
Tulsa(added in 05)

...for a conf w/
Cincinnati
USF(3 tourneys)
Tulane(3 tourneys, last 1996)
Memphis
Houston(2 tourneys in last 21 years or 1 in 20)
UCF(4 tourneys)
SMU(last tourney in 1993)
Tulsa(last tourney 2003)
Temple
UConn
Navy(fb)
ECU(2 tourneys, last 1993)

In what world are UConn, Temple so mighty that they trump Louisville, TCU? I'd take that old CUSA over this A12 and ECU good enough for that but not this? ECU middle of the pack bball, SMU, Tulane not better, Houston either. They made it to 1 tourney in 20some years so that's 1 better than ECUs last in 93.

This may be "beating a dead horse" at this point, but just to set the record straight, ECU basketball is not "middle of the pack" - they are bottom feeders.

C-USA winning % 2001 - 2011
Memphis 82.3%
Cincinnati 73.4%
Charlotte 67.2%
Marquette 65.6%
Louisville 65.6%
UTEP 64.9%
UAB 63.9%
Tulsa 59.6%
St. Louis 51.6%
DePaul 50.0%
Marshall 50.0%
Houston 49.4%
UCF 48.9%
TCU 37.5%
Southern Miss. 37.3%
Tulane 34.8%
South Florida 32.8%
SMU 30.9%
East Carolina 26.6%
Rice 25.5%

No one is surprised that ECU was elevated to full membership, but let's not pretend it was a good decision.

The last couple years they've been around 500, in the world of what have you done for me today. Even under your model that excludes the last 2 years to make the #s work in your favor, they are about the same as SMU, USF, Tulane, all full members. ECU 22-12 this year 15-16 last year

American Athletic Conference Realignment & Expansion Thread

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