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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 1:37 pm 
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For the American Athletic schools and the rest of the "Little 5" their destinies ultimately rest upon which of the three conferences sitting in the catbird's seat expands next and/or if they all choose to add at the same time. If the Pac 12 is the first to move and they are only ones to move some of the American schools (Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU?) might land in a depleted Big 12 and spend a few years in an elite conference for a few years until the playoff deal is up for renewal. In that scenario the American would just backfill with C-USA schools, attempting to replace lost markets and then C-USA backfills from the Sunbelt.

If the Big Ten or SEC act first the dynamic changes entirely. The ACC will be the ones trying to rebuild and adding American schools.

If all 3 or 2 of the 3 expand in the same cycle then all hell breaks loose and its incredibly hard to tell where everyone lands when the dust settles.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 8:13 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
For the American Athletic schools and the rest of the "Little 5" their destinies ultimately rest upon which of the three conferences sitting in the catbird's seat expands next and/or if they all choose to add at the same time. If the Pac 12 is the first to move and they are only ones to move some of the American schools (Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU?) might land in a depleted Big 12 and spend a few years in an elite conference for a few years until the playoff deal is up for renewal. In that scenario the American would just backfill with C-USA schools, attempting to replace lost markets and then C-USA backfills from the Sunbelt.

If the Big Ten or SEC act first the dynamic changes entirely. The ACC will be the ones trying to rebuild and adding American schools.

If all 3 or 2 of the 3 expand in the same cycle then all hell breaks loose and its incredibly hard to tell where everyone lands when the dust settles.


Yeah, I mostly agree with this. The AAC and MWC look the most likely to be plundered, with the conveyor belt of AAC plundering CUSA and MWC raiding SBC and western CUSA schools (or, maybe they get lucky and plunder the AAC of Houston and Tulsa). I think the bigger concern the AAC has is with scheduling agreements with the P5. Can AAC programs land any 1-1's or 2-1's? Getting a big game in some of these programs' venues is where the PR will shift. "This isn't viable for us," "we need these home games for heightened experience," and that kind of thing. We know some of these schools are looking to bolt (UConn, Cincy, the directional Floridas, etc.), but even if there isn't any plundering to be had, the issue of scheduling still remains...

Old Dominion scored three home games in a seven-game set with Virginia Tech. Big difference between that SMU's series with UNT running to 2025...


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:46 am 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
fighting muskie wrote:
For the American Athletic schools and the rest of the "Little 5" their destinies ultimately rest upon which of the three conferences sitting in the catbird's seat expands next and/or if they all choose to add at the same time. If the Pac 12 is the first to move and they are only ones to move some of the American schools (Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU?) might land in a depleted Big 12 and spend a few years in an elite conference for a few years until the playoff deal is up for renewal. In that scenario the American would just backfill with C-USA schools, attempting to replace lost markets and then C-USA backfills from the Sunbelt.

If the Big Ten or SEC act first the dynamic changes entirely. The ACC will be the ones trying to rebuild and adding American schools.

If all 3 or 2 of the 3 expand in the same cycle then all hell breaks loose and its incredibly hard to tell where everyone lands when the dust settles.


Yeah, I mostly agree with this. The AAC and MWC look the most likely to be plundered, with the conveyor belt of AAC plundering CUSA and MWC raiding SBC and western CUSA schools (or, maybe they get lucky and plunder the AAC of Houston and Tulsa). I think the bigger concern the AAC has is with scheduling agreements with the P5. Can AAC programs land any 1-1's or 2-1's? Getting a big game in some of these programs' venues is where the PR will shift. "This isn't viable for us," "we need these home games for heightened experience," and that kind of thing. We know some of these schools are looking to bolt (UConn, Cincy, the directional Floridas, etc.), but even if there isn't any plundering to be had, the issue of scheduling still remains...

Old Dominion scored three home games in a seven-game set with Virginia Tech. Big difference between that SMU's series with UNT running to 2025...


What about schools like UCF and Boise? Will it get easier or harder for them to get 1-1 deals with their recent success? I think it will be harder because teams realize they could get beat by them and upper echelon teams in power conferences will be reluctant to schedule them. I can UCF getting a good deal with team's like Purdue, but I don't see tOSU ever coming to Brighthouse Network Stadium in Orlando.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:19 am 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Yeah, I mostly agree with this. The AAC and MWC look the most likely to be plundered, with the conveyor belt of AAC plundering CUSA and MWC raiding SBC and western CUSA schools (or, maybe they get lucky and plunder the AAC of Houston and Tulsa). I think the bigger concern the AAC has is with scheduling agreements with the P5. Can AAC programs land any 1-1's or 2-1's? Getting a big game in some of these programs' venues is where the PR will shift. "This isn't viable for us," "we need these home games for heightened experience," and that kind of thing. We know some of these schools are looking to bolt (UConn, Cincy, the directional Floridas, etc.), but even if there isn't any plundering to be had, the issue of scheduling still remains...

Old Dominion scored three home games in a seven-game set with Virginia Tech. Big difference between that SMU's series with UNT running to 2025...


While I understand that schools have much trouble in filling out a schedule....I am having trouble understanding your last point.

ODU scored a nice series with Vtech(a historic quality team). While Vtech is playing down two levels to play a very young ODU(brand new to FBS) team.
SMU(average school in fb) is moving sideways to play UNT. While UNT(average school in fb) is moving sideways to play SMU.

What 'big difference' are we drawing from these comparisons?
Thanks for your clarification.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:29 pm 
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hendu1976fl wrote:
What about schools like UCF and Boise? Will it get easier or harder for them to get 1-1 deals with their recent success? I think it will be harder because teams realize they could get beat by them and upper echelon teams in power conferences will be reluctant to schedule them. I can UCF getting a good deal with team's like Purdue, but I don't see tOSU ever coming to Brighthouse Network Stadium in Orlando.


True, but a major is a major, be it Purdue or tOSU. Yeah, some majors purposely evade 1-1's with strong mid-majors, but I think programs with decent facilities don't tend to have that problem so much. Looking at the future schedules of Houston, ECU, Memphis, USF, and even SMU...they get their games. It's because their fans will travel, too, relatively or even outright (Houston and SMU have a lot of games with TCU, Baylor, Tech, etc...old intrastate SWC rivals).

It's always about money. UCF, while they play in a decent venue, doesn't necessarily travel well. How did they do with the Fiesta Bowl...couldn't even push half their 17.5K tickets? Some majors will use that as ammo to deny the travel. Who scratches their back? The same was with Boise, who took the issue and ran on a "we'll play anyone, anywhere" premise. UCF is probably going to have to do the same (and I suspect this is why a P5 school wouldn't want them...how popular are these teams, really, outside of internet message boards?).

AAC has programs like UConn and Cincinnati, who run their departments at relatively pricey rates. But, how are they to contribute, both to their own departments or the conference altogether, if they can't secure top content? Content at these universities are such a big deal with programs that have big budgets. They help fund the entire AD, and they help to generate interest in the program. Yeah, a school can do the Boise State thing...get paid to travel...but if the games aren't nationally televised, what worth are they, really? Is it sustainable? I don't think it is.

For the Tulane's and Tulsa's of the AAC, or the Temple's for that matter, it's business as usual. For UConn's and Cincy's...and maybe even UCF, who now has some questions to ask about what a top program needs to do beyond field performance, these are "the top" of the conference. The chasers. How are they bringing the money in?

This is why I'm so impressed with what ODU did. ODU's venue isn't that great. Programs like them take body-baggers for years, with little giveback. CUSA and ODU win big with that score. It makes them a commodity.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:42 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
hendu1976fl wrote:
What about schools like UCF and Boise? Will it get easier or harder for them to get 1-1 deals with their recent success? I think it will be harder because teams realize they could get beat by them and upper echelon teams in power conferences will be reluctant to schedule them. I can UCF getting a good deal with team's like Purdue, but I don't see tOSU ever coming to Brighthouse Network Stadium in Orlando.


True, but a major is a major, be it Purdue or tOSU. Yeah, some majors purposely evade 1-1's with strong mid-majors, but I think programs with decent facilities don't tend to have that problem so much. Looking at the future schedules of Houston, ECU, Memphis, USF, and even SMU...they get their games. It's because their fans will travel, too, relatively or even outright (Houston and SMU have a lot of games with TCU, Baylor, Tech, etc...old intrastate SWC rivals).

It's always about money. UCF, while they play in a decent venue, doesn't necessarily travel well. How did they do with the Fiesta Bowl...couldn't even push half their 17.5K tickets? Some majors will use that as ammo to deny the travel. Who scratches their back? The same was with Boise, who took the issue and ran on a "we'll play anyone, anywhere" premise. UCF is probably going to have to do the same (and I suspect this is why a P5 school wouldn't want them...how popular are these teams, really, outside of internet message boards?).


I thought UCF did travel really well for the game. On the broadcast I saw a lot of Knight fans in attendance, far more than the 6000 tickets we sold through the school. The tickets we returned were almost double the going rate on Stubhub and Ticketmaster from what I read on the UCF message boards. Then there were the morons who booked flights and hotels in New Orleans because they thought that is where we were going to be playing. What kind of moron does that before the bowl matchups are announced? Listening to the UCF radio network after the game, they seemed to indicate that it was a UCF house. Ticket sells for the BCS games were down all over. I heard tOSU wasn't selling very many of their tickets either. If they can't sell their tickets, who can. In relation to the Fiesta Bowl, Baylor gave back 5000 tickets as well, and they didn't have to drive half way across the country to go to the game or book an $800 flight.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:10 pm 
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hendu1976fl wrote:
The Bishin Cutter wrote:
hendu1976fl wrote:
What about schools like UCF and Boise? Will it get easier or harder for them to get 1-1 deals with their recent success? I think it will be harder because teams realize they could get beat by them and upper echelon teams in power conferences will be reluctant to schedule them. I can UCF getting a good deal with team's like Purdue, but I don't see tOSU ever coming to Brighthouse Network Stadium in Orlando.


True, but a major is a major, be it Purdue or tOSU. Yeah, some majors purposely evade 1-1's with strong mid-majors, but I think programs with decent facilities don't tend to have that problem so much. Looking at the future schedules of Houston, ECU, Memphis, USF, and even SMU...they get their games. It's because their fans will travel, too, relatively or even outright (Houston and SMU have a lot of games with TCU, Baylor, Tech, etc...old intrastate SWC rivals).

It's always about money. UCF, while they play in a decent venue, doesn't necessarily travel well. How did they do with the Fiesta Bowl...couldn't even push half their 17.5K tickets? Some majors will use that as ammo to deny the travel. Who scratches their back? The same was with Boise, who took the issue and ran on a "we'll play anyone, anywhere" premise. UCF is probably going to have to do the same (and I suspect this is why a P5 school wouldn't want them...how popular are these teams, really, outside of internet message boards?).


I thought UCF did travel really well for the game. On the broadcast I saw a lot of Knight fans in attendance, far more than the 6000 tickets we sold through the school. The tickets we returned were almost double the going rate on Stubhub and Ticketmaster from what I read on the UCF message boards. Then there were the morons who booked flights and hotels in New Orleans because they thought that is where we were going to be playing. What kind of moron does that before the bowl matchups are announced? Listening to the UCF radio network after the game, they seemed to indicate that it was a UCF house. Ticket sells for the BCS games were down all over. I heard tOSU wasn't selling very many of their tickets either. If they can't sell their tickets, who can. In relation to the Fiesta Bowl, Baylor gave back 5000 tickets as well, and they didn't have to drive half way across the country to go to the game or book an $800 flight.


I like UCF, heck Texas played at UCF and has them on the schedule in a year or three (final game in the 2 and 1 deal from a few years ago), but you're not doing UCF any favor telling me y'all were almost as good as Baylor was bad.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 6:52 pm 
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hendu1976fl wrote:
I thought UCF did travel really well for the game. On the broadcast I saw a lot of Knight fans in attendance, far more than the 6000 tickets we sold through the school. The tickets we returned were almost double the going rate on Stubhub and Ticketmaster from what I read on the UCF message boards. Then there were the morons who booked flights and hotels in New Orleans because they thought that is where we were going to be playing. What kind of moron does that before the bowl matchups are announced? Listening to the UCF radio network after the game, they seemed to indicate that it was a UCF house. Ticket sells for the BCS games were down all over. I heard tOSU wasn't selling very many of their tickets either. If they can't sell their tickets, who can. In relation to the Fiesta Bowl, Baylor gave back 5000 tickets as well, and they didn't have to drive half way across the country to go to the game or book an $800 flight.


As long as the bowl economy is what it is (just when I'm thinking "don't blink," the schools find a way to LIMIT fan options instead of expand them), the definition of "travels well" includes buying the inflated priced tickets the school bought. Not doing that threatens to lose the school money.

Not that the practice of school ticket allotments is anywhere near ethical or sustainable.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 07, 2014 1:59 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
hendu1976fl wrote:
The Bishin Cutter wrote:
hendu1976fl wrote:
What about schools like UCF and Boise? Will it get easier or harder for them to get 1-1 deals with their recent success? I think it will be harder because teams realize they could get beat by them and upper echelon teams in power conferences will be reluctant to schedule them. I can UCF getting a good deal with team's like Purdue, but I don't see tOSU ever coming to Brighthouse Network Stadium in Orlando.


True, but a major is a major, be it Purdue or tOSU. Yeah, some majors purposely evade 1-1's with strong mid-majors, but I think programs with decent facilities don't tend to have that problem so much. Looking at the future schedules of Houston, ECU, Memphis, USF, and even SMU...they get their games. It's because their fans will travel, too, relatively or even outright (Houston and SMU have a lot of games with TCU, Baylor, Tech, etc...old intrastate SWC rivals).

It's always about money. UCF, while they play in a decent venue, doesn't necessarily travel well. How did they do with the Fiesta Bowl...couldn't even push half their 17.5K tickets? Some majors will use that as ammo to deny the travel. Who scratches their back? The same was with Boise, who took the issue and ran on a "we'll play anyone, anywhere" premise. UCF is probably going to have to do the same (and I suspect this is why a P5 school wouldn't want them...how popular are these teams, really, outside of internet message boards?).


I thought UCF did travel really well for the game. On the broadcast I saw a lot of Knight fans in attendance, far more than the 6000 tickets we sold through the school. The tickets we returned were almost double the going rate on Stubhub and Ticketmaster from what I read on the UCF message boards. Then there were the morons who booked flights and hotels in New Orleans because they thought that is where we were going to be playing. What kind of moron does that before the bowl matchups are announced? Listening to the UCF radio network after the game, they seemed to indicate that it was a UCF house. Ticket sells for the BCS games were down all over. I heard tOSU wasn't selling very many of their tickets either. If they can't sell their tickets, who can. In relation to the Fiesta Bowl, Baylor gave back 5000 tickets as well, and they didn't have to drive half way across the country to go to the game or book an $800 flight.


I like UCF, heck Texas played at UCF and has them on the schedule in a year or three (final game in the 2 and 1 deal from a few years ago), but you're not doing UCF any favor telling me y'all were almost as good as Baylor was bad.


Then I am certainly glad you hired Charlie Strong, just teasing you.

As far as the tickets go, I guess we were not able to unload that many. I think the national perception of that game was that UCF went into the Fiesta Bowl and beat up Baylor pretty good right next to their back yard. In 5 years very few people will even remember this game. Those that do, will remember this as UCF kicking the crap out of Baylor (though the game was reasonably close or tied throughout most of the game) , and they won't remember who sold what in terms of tickets. I really don't see how a school that has 34 years of football tradition, and less than 20 years at the FBS level, could hope to sell as many tickets as teams that were playing for almost 100 years longer than UCF. Surely you guys have some fans out there.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 08, 2014 3:24 pm 
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pounder wrote:
As long as the bowl economy is what it is (just when I'm thinking "don't blink," the schools find a way to LIMIT fan options instead of expand them), the definition of "travels well" includes buying the inflated priced tickets the school bought. Not doing that threatens to lose the school money.

Not that the practice of school ticket allotments is anywhere near ethical or sustainable.


Agreed. It's a terrible system...but it's the system.

UCF needed to represent itself better regarding those tickets. That's the kind of stuff major conferences will remember were they to consider the school. The AAC was more than happy to soak up some of the losses. The majors? No way.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:05 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
pounder wrote:
As long as the bowl economy is what it is (just when I'm thinking "don't blink," the schools find a way to LIMIT fan options instead of expand them), the definition of "travels well" includes buying the inflated priced tickets the school bought. Not doing that threatens to lose the school money.

Not that the practice of school ticket allotments is anywhere near ethical or sustainable.


Agreed. It's a terrible system...but it's the system.

UCF needed to represent itself better regarding those tickets. That's the kind of stuff major conferences will remember were they to consider the school. The AAC was more than happy to soak up some of the losses. The majors? No way.


Baylor had around 15,000 enrolled this year. UCF was just over 60,000 this year. With those types of numbers, who will have the larger fan base in 10 years, 20 years, 30 years? We are talking about a long term investment right. I mean if you just want to rent a team for a couple of years, then UCF probably isn't what you are looking for. How about we move the game to where the Big 12 champ will play in the future, the Sugar Bowl. UCF would sell that sucker out in no time. I would have gone to that one and taken about 6 people with me. Can somebody tell me how many Cincy sold for the Belk Bowl?


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:27 pm 
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I'm a little worried about the quality of the American's basketball product this year. This league was supposed to be anchored in bb by Cincy, Memphis, UConn, and Temple and so far this season Cincy seems to be the only one living up to expectations. I think the American might need to expand for the sake of basketball. Bring in UMass and agree to some benchmarks that the Minutemen have to meet before their football team can come in. Why not consider Wichita St and St Louis too? Sure St Louis is hoping for a spot in the Big East with their Catholic brethren but if the American offers first then maybe the Bilikens would be convinced to go with the public schools. St Louis spent some time in the Metro, Great Midwest, and the original C-USA with some of the American schools so it wouldn't necessarily be a shotgun wedding.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:02 pm 
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Are you kidding ?

Why is this thread 200 pages longer than any other ?
Perhaps MAYBE because the conf. structure was TFU for so long as a hybrid of public football schools + catholic basketball schools.....

I assure you that none of the members want to go back to that....

UMASS maybe.

SLU............. NO WAY. SLU is definitely holding out for a Big East invitation


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 24, 2014 3:22 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
Are you kidding ?

Why is this thread 200 pages longer than any other ?
Perhaps MAYBE because the conf. structure was TFU for so long as a hybrid of public football schools + catholic basketball schools.....

I assure you that none of the members want to go back to that....

UMASS maybe.

SLU............. NO WAY. SLU is definitely holding out for a Big East invitation

As well they should. They fit much better with their Catholic brethren than the geographic hodgepodge which is the AAC.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 25, 2014 1:13 pm 
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The hybrid is not a broken model--the way the old Big East handled its hybrid however was flawed from the very beginning. A hybrid conference works so long as the football schools make up 75% of the league. The Big East decided to go with a 50/50 split in 2005 and it left the league locked into a status quo that became untenable for both sides--first the football side, causing the best football programs to dart; and then the basketball side when the replacement programs lacked the hoops pedigree that Pitt, Cuse, and the other departing schools had.

American Athletic Conference basketball looks very weak--when they get all 11 of their members next year they look like a 2 maybe 3 bid league. All I was trying to say is that there are basketball programs out there that could help improve their image. Yes, St Louis would rather be in the Catholic Big East but they would definitely have to be in the American's expansion discussions even if the result from the Bilikens ended up being thanks but no thanks.


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