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 Post subject: FBS Realignment: 2025
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:56 pm 
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Hiya folks, new on the board. Here's what I see as a plausible scenario for the next round of realignment. I'm definitely no expert, so feel free to poke holes in it!

The dominoes fall when the Big 12 GOR expires in 2025. The Pac-12 is first to strike, becoming the Pac-16 by acquiring Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. The rest of the Big 12 is up for grabs. The Big Ten invites Kansas to make 15. Iowa State is a suitable add but offers nothing new. Instead, the Big Ten scores a coup by poaching Missouri from the SEC. West Virginia is added by the SEC to replace Missouri. Although the SEC already has a foothold in Texas with A&M, they could become the dominant conference in the state by adding any two of Baylor, Houston, and TCU. The latter two are invited, while small-market Baylor is shunned. The ACC must keep up by moving to 16 as well. Notre Dame is at last compelled to join as a full member. Cincinnati is chosen as #16 over Connecticut in order to improve the football strength of the now-weakest P4 conference. Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State fall down to the American.

Each P4 conference divides its teams into four pods, which rotate annually between divisions to allow each team to play all other 15 teams in the conference within two years (based on a 9-game conference schedule). In one year, you have the Northeast (North + East Pods) and Southwest (South + West Pods) Divisions, and the next year, you have the Northwest and Southeast Divisions. The four winners of the conference championship games automatically receive bids into the CFP.

So here's what we get:

ACC
East Pod: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North Pod: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South Pod: Florida State, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest
West Pod: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Permanent crossovers: Duke/Wake Forest, NC State/North Carolina

Big Ten
East Pod: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North Pod: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South Pod: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West Pod: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

(Yes, the South Pod isn't very "south," but there's no help for it.)

Permanent crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Permanent crossovers: none

SEC
East Pod: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North Pod: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South Pod: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West Pod: Houston, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M

Permanent crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

This really only works if Texas and Oklahoma go to the Pac. I'm not confident that Missouri would defect, even though they originally preferred the Big Ten and the SEC has no exit penalties. And the SEC simply might not choose to move from 14 to 16.

So what does everyone think? Any questions, just let me know!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Certainly plausible (as are about 2 dozen other scenarios).

Missouri wanted to join the Big Ten, but was rejected, so I'm not sure that hard feeling don't linger.

I also might change up your Big Ten pods to put Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota together, but that's WAY down the road.

Lots of politics involved in all of this.


WELCOME TO THE BOARD !!!!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:45 pm 
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And here's a map to go with the scenario: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x2m8uyqutzx4r ... 9.png?dl=0


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:54 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
Certainly plausible (as are about 2 dozen other scenarios).

Missouri wanted to join the Big Ten, but was rejected, so I'm not sure that hard feeling don't linger.

I also might change up your Big Ten pods to put Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota together, but that's WAY down the road.

Lots of politics involved in all of this.


WELCOME TO THE BOARD !!!!


Thanks for the welcome! Fair point about Missouri's rejection, but even they must have seen Nebraska was a better choice at the time. And time heals all wounds. ;)

So you'd have Illinois, Missouri, Northwestern, and Wisconsin in a pod together as well? I didn't want to break up both Minnesota/Wisconsin and Iowa/Wisconsin, since only one divisional crossover would likely be permitted as an annual matchup.

Definitely lots of politics, but that's unavoidable.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:09 pm 
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I think only Kansas state would go to the AAC. I think Umass would make 14. I'm wondering if Wichita state adds football and replaces Navy.
Though I personally think that 14 all sports membership is the best case scenario for the P-5 conferences. I think Texas will go "independent" like Notre Dame. Either tied to the Big 12 or southland. I think UTSA or another Texas school replaces Texas in the Big 12. I think then both Colorado and Cincinnati are added to the Big 12.
I think Utah State replaces Colorado to ease Travel. I would then add Hawaii and Boise State. Both Boise State and Hawaii are part of the Northern division. Hawaii allows for a week 0 game conference or non conference. A early season conference game opens up a potential late season non-conference game.
MWC adds NMSU and UTEP. Adds Louisiana Tech.
Sun belt readds Western Kentucky and North Texas.
AAC adds rice and UMASS. Drops Navy football.Adds Wichita state football.
C-USA adds FCS call-up schools or tries to add Army and Navy.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:38 am 
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Always fun to look at potential realignment. I did four separate posts on my blog last year about what could potentially happen (although I can be pretty sure none of my scenarios will end up 100% happening):

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/05/31/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-1/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/03/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-2/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-3/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/13/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-4/

I did like what you had there nerdlinger and I kind of agree that the top end of FBS are going to continue to move towards becoming it's own top division (and the only division that would have access to the national championship).


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:07 am 
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The NCAA format for tournaments seems to require half of all slots go to at-large teams.

I'm picturing the P5 consolidating to a P4,
an 8-team playoff with the 4 P4 champs getting automatic bids.
then the 4 at-large bids gong to mostly P4 runner-up teams and MAYBE an occasional G5 team.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:39 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
The NCAA format for tournaments seems to require half of all slots go to at-large teams.

I'm picturing the P5 consolidating to a P4,
an 8-team playoff with the 4 P4 champs getting automatic bids.
then the 4 at-large bids gong to mostly P4 runner-up teams and MAYBE an occasional G5 team.

Would a 12 team tournament work? The P-5 conferences and 1 G-5 team and 6 at large. The top 4 ranked conference champs get a bye to the second round and host the second round. The other P-5 and G-5 team hosts a first round game and the Two best at large hosts the first round. The Semi finals and final can be held like they are now.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Going to 12 or 16 would be adding 2 more rounds.

The CFP can't run too late without encroaching on the NFL playoffs.

So these additional round(s) might have to fit in around Christmas, and I think the bowl people might be fearful that and will moan about having to travel in there....
Some of the big bowl sites are actually scheduling a second minor bowl game in there now.

There seems to be a lot of consensus to move to 8 ASAP. I think it could be done after the first 6 years of the CFP (after the first complete rotation of semi-final sites).
Those 6 bowls (Orange, Gator, Peach, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta) could then realign so that the 4 currently not scheduled to host CFP Semi-finals in a given year could host quarter-final games. But those 4 would have to move from New Years time frame to a week earlier. Again - the scheduling issue....


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:11 pm 
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I am not so sure the Big 12 shall disassemble in 23/24.
Those schools really don't have it bad, and a new contract
then may be enough to discourage departures. The B1G
and SEC will pay more, but the discrepancy may not be
extreme. Texas and/or Oklahoma moving would create a
big change across the board.

While this forum appears B1G favorable, the conference
is not going to just pick whomever they want. Mizzou will
very likely remain in the SEC. If the B1G wants KU, time
shall tell. Their #16, could be geographically complicated
unless they choose to modify their stated criteria.

The PAC 12 could put a modified proposal back on the table
from about eight years ago for luring UT, TTU, OU, & oSu.
They later turned down a pitch by OU & oSu. First turn for
the PAC12 is no guarantee. The B1G and SEC would also
be in the game. I would not dismiss OU & oSu getting
SEC offers in 2023 as a both a defensive and advancing move.
That geographically splits the B12.

It is doubtful the politics of Oklahoma and Kansas would
agree to changes whereby oSu and KSU end up being in a
diminished conference, particularly if results leave them
with non-P5 status. In Texas, there will be interests to
protect TTU, a state school.

The SEC would not be interested in adding Texas private
schools such as TCU and Baylor. Houston would not be
pursued either. The SEC would not want to dilute their value.
Texas to the SEC doesn't appear plausible for now, given
the differences, some attitudinal. However, in several years,
some of that could change on both sides. Regardless, the
LHN will still be active, which may limit chosen options
for UT.

The ACC last year strengthened their GoR and extended the
time-frame to 2034 or so. None of those schools are moving.
If Notre Dame commits to FT ACC fb by then, expect #16
to be WVU if available. UConn and Cincy could be options.
ECU will not get voted into the ACC.

Major conference expansion could embrace other schools not
from within the P5. UConn, BYU (if they modify their honor
code and offer other compromises), Colorado State, and a
few others such as UCF, USF, SDSU, BSU, and Houston,
could upgrade in conference placements. If the B12 has a
couple of departures, or decides to really expand, there are
new opportunities for some schools from the AAC and/or MWC.

Again, I expect the B12 to survive. But unless they make some
developmental moves which they are not prone to do
collectively, they will falter and it will be their own fault.

Expansion is cautionary with major conferences. Changes do
happen every several years or so, but no conference that is very
stable is going to take big risks with their products, nor should they.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:47 pm 
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ACC:
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame
Duke, NC, NC State, Wake Forest
Miami, Florida St, Ga Tech, Clemson
Virginia, Va Tech. Louisville, Cincinnati


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 11:25 am 
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westwolf wrote:
ACC:
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame
Duke, NC, NC State, Wake Forest
Miami, Florida St, Ga Tech, Clemson
Virginia, Va Tech. Louisville, Cincinnati


Westwolf, the ACC could end up looking something like that if ND finally goes full time fb in the ACC. I have doubts though, since Swofford rendered to ND and full share of ACC revenue consistent with the full contributing members. That agreement runs to nearly 2036. That assures ND can maintain their independent NBC (or with another future bidder) contract for the duration.

Cincy would have competitors for that #16 spot when/if that point is reached.

The problem with pods though, is that the NCAA/P5 would need to change their rules. A year or two ago, they voted to confirm divisions and ban the pod format proposed by the ACC at the time. Had that been approved, the ACC probably intended to work ND into a pod.

If conferences employed the pod system, 3 pods @ 5 each for a conference, could work for some. That would avoid adding by "twos".
With a new school needing to bring around 35 million or so per year to the coffers of the conference to make expansion feasible, there is virtually nothing available out there for at least the next five or so years to reach that.


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 9:09 pm 
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Mizzou and KU to the B1G is the most plausible. Missouri is an oddball in the SEC. Both are AAC.

SEC backfills Mizzou with OU and stays at 14. Big12 backfills with... who the hell knows, and stays with UT as the anchor team. I don't see any other moves for 3 reasons:

    1) 16+ conferences stretch the definition of a conference. Divisional play in 14-team leagues are already a mess. Playing a former rival once every 4+ years is the big strike against megaconferences. Pod structure was explicitly ruled out last time it came up. That could change by 2020s but no momentum now.
    2) Cord cutting. A lot of the TV money and conference networks was based on carriage fees. The money for conference deals doesn't try up, but it likely plateaus. This will likely cause conferences to prefer less mouths to feed, rather than saying "we have to go to 16 because the B1G did".
    3) Longhorn network. They get whatever reduced package the networks give after OU leaves, plus pocket another $15m/yr. They know they are a crown jewel and could find a place in a network after the LHN expires.

The ACC isn't going to add anyone unless ND decides they want to join a a full member.

SEC stays at 14 to preserve cross-divisional play and have less mouths to feed.

WVU isn't an attractive team to anyone but the B12. WV has a population of 1.8M, comparable to Idaho, and is one of the few states shrinking in population. They don't pull weight in carriage fees or advertising. The B12 took WVU because they were desperate to preserve football credibility, and since they bonked on Louisville, the mountaineers were the best team on the board. The other conferences don't have a credibility problem, and so the financials -- and academics -- work against WVU.

OU/OSU/TT/+1 to the PAC is plausible, but I think OU would join the SEC instead if invited to backfill Mizzou. Gives them more security and more money. Without OU the Pac balks at

The B12 stays a P5 conference because of UT, but with a much-reduced package. ESPN probably lowballs because of their financial problems, obligation to ACC network, and irritation of the B12 bluff to demand full shares in last year's expansion/no expansion fiasco.


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:19 am 
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Most chat and blogs, and the occasional articles by mainstream sports writers center around what 3 schools may do. That would apply to the '23/'24 timetable based on the B12's current GoR contract.

This may have been posted last week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... uqgv102dts"
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There's little new there, but Oklahoma appears to be stirring the most speculation, particularly with recent comments from Feinbaum, Tramel, and later Boren. What they decide to do, or not do, will have major implications in several years.

Notre Dame basically assured their independence status for football to the mid-2030s, thanks to the ACC media deal and ND's NBC
ongoing coverage. Only external developments related to playoffs, bowls, and scheduling may change that. If they go full conference football during the period, they have agreed it would be with the ACC. Fox Sports Tim Brando fueled commentaries about ND being in discussions with the ACC about full time football participation. Then the denials or qualifiers by officials followed.

Texas has almost every kind of option, and none may look perfect from their point of view. The LHN, protecting rivalries, location, etc., makes these decisions more complex.


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:49 am 
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It is seriously doubtful Mizzou would
leave the SEC to take a 5 year or more
reduction in conference distributions
in the B1G. That was an issue the first
time. SEC money now exceeds, and
athletically, recruiting is better to their
south. Mizzou would not want to cut
recruitment connections to Texas, Florida,
and elsewhere in the southeast.
Nebraska's pipeline suffered when they
made the move from the B12.


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