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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:20 pm 
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hendu1976fl wrote:
Great insight tkalmus. While I don't disagree that we are probably a longshot, I don't see some of the expansion moves panning out the way you mentioned. I just don't see anyway the B1G goes after BC. From what I have read in several articles, Delaney wants to move south. Whether that be through the plains in an attempt to grab Kansas, OU and Texas, or somehow snake his way down the Atlantic seaboard.

First, I just want to point out that I don't "think" it will shake out like that either, I was giving you an example of how UCF would make it into the ACC where it still had enough schools where as they would be included in the next round of the post season. But this is why I picked a few of those moves.

Delaney wants a "crown jewel" like Penn State or Nebraska, and the only programs available are Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Florida State.

Texas/Oklahoma are likely a pair along with Kansas like you said but the politics of splitting them up from Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech (ntm Baylor/TCU) will likely be too difficult and the Big Ten will pass.

UNC seems to lean towards joining the SEC over the Big Ten though that could change. UVA, UNC, Duke, GT, FSU would all be great additions but w/o UNC I don't think the Big Ten goes after FSU who would be on an island, GT would be iffy but I think if they got UVA, GT in Atlanta would be too hard for them to skip over.

ND, despite running away from the B1G for years, is still the most likely "jewel" to join the conference. The B1G and SEC will pick apart the ACC eventually, and the new BCS (or whatever we should start calling it) will eventually force ND into a conference. Both those things will likely happen when the new playoff format and the ACC/B12 GORs expire starting around 2025ish. Once the train starts moving again look for the Big Ten to try one final time for ND while allowing them to bring a tag-a-long which could be Pitt, BC, or Syracuse. Pitt will likely not get the nod because they offer neither the Irish nor the Big Ten anything of substance, BC would add another non-secular private schools (like the Irish) w/ great academics, a new market in New England and a great hockey team which would fit well with ND in Big Ten hockey, and Syracuse (also a private school) brings awesome bball and LAX plus the state of NY which adds the higher cost per subscriber of the Big Ten network into the 3rd largest state in the nation (by population) which Rutger doesn't.

hendu1976fl wrote:
Also, I don't see FSU and Miami in play for the SEC. From a football competition standpoint, expansion would be easy; grab FSU and Clemson and call it a day. But I don't see Slive doubling down in a state as small as South Carolina. Florida would use all of their political muscle to prevent FSU and Miami from joining the conference. I believe that FSU would have to be approved by 75% of the conference to gain admission. I know where Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky sit on that vote. How Texas A&M would vote is the key. But beyond that, it would be over saturation in a market the SEC already dominates. I agree with you 100% about North Carolina and Duke. Slive wants the BBall improved. Adding Duke and UNC accomplishes that. Florida, Kentucky, Duke and UNC sounds like a final 4 to me.

Here's the thing, Clemson (like you said) virtually adds nothing of substance to the conference but FSU has a national following and adding a 2nd program in Florida can't hurt, ntm everyone on both sides of the conference would love to travel to Florida (be it UF, FSU, Miami) more often.

Miami, who doesn't have the national following that FSU does, does contain a market that the SEC doesn't fully own or dominate (as you put it). More people in Miami/South Florida watch the ACC as that area is full of transplants from the Northeast, plus when you really look at it Florida is more surrounded by the ACC more so than the SEC. I've heard various things on the adding of FSU into the conference but from what I gathered Kentucky doesn't want Louisville, and neither is GT as a former SEC member; but the real issue was FSU/Clemson, but many were anti Clemson (as like we point out they bring very little) as used the no existing schools to stop UGA/USC from trying to promote them, but it also backlashed against FSU who a majority of schools would still want to add.

I think that "rule" will not exists this time around and FSU will be a top candidate along with UNC, Duke, UVA/VPI, OU, and Texas.

All that being said, I also think its unlikely that the SEC adds both Miami and FSU though it has been talked about before a could still happen if the Big Ten come sniffing around looking to expand to 20 or 24 as was rumored add attempt to add Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, UNC, UVA; then the SEC would try to protect one of its most valuable states and offer both FL schools in order to shut out the Big Ten. But like I said in my first response to you, this too is a very VERY longshot.

hendu1976fl wrote:
If expansion does continue, and there are 4 power conferences, what are your thoughts in terms of league numbers? 16-20 teams each? I can see the B1G and the SEC each with 20 teams. The Pac with either 16 or 18 teams, and the ACC with about 16 teams.
It all depends on where the Big Ten stops, if they go to 20 or 24 I think that spells the end of the ACC as the SEC would most likely feel the need to expand to protect its TV/recruiting turf (as I mentioned above).

If they stop at 16 then I think there's room for the 4x16 model as the ACC even w/o UNC, FSU, or ND still has enough quality teams to force their inclusion.

The only quality school, that should be worried about being left out is Kansas, because if the SEC and Big Ten both expand East and the PAC12 only takes the Texhoma 4, then where does Kansas fit in? I don't think they are worth another round of expansion once everyone hits 16 and the ACC won't go out of its way to grab KU when UConn/WVU/Cincy are all sitting in there backyard.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:13 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
Appreciate the comments, tkalmus.

I see where Texas AD, DeLoss Dodds has announced he'll be retiring. This is in addition to the on-going pressure on Mac Brown. The two circumstances may not be directly related.

They are directly related. I know this isn't a "Texas" board so I won't bore you but there is also a big EEOC suite going on with are form women's track coach that is also related, but Dodds is done and so is Mack, they'll announce a new AD before Dec and Mack will "retire" right after the season if not before.

sec03 wrote:
So, Texas shall be having multiple personnel changes. Texas shall seek to maintain their top revenue stream, yet they have to be assessing if the current B12 situation is best for them in the long-run. I wonder if ESPN's investment with the LHN shall be sustained. That's so much programming to fill based on one school, though they have tried to branch into some level of auxiliary coverage that serves the basic objective.

LHN is here as long as the B12 is both till 2025, the prime time programing is quite good, but reruns take up the hours between 10pm-4pm, same as it does on the PAC12network/BTN, but with just 1 school and one audience there is only so much you can watch/record. Still I love the content however I think the 1 school network is a bust. If A&M had joined up when first offered I think it might have been very successful.


sec03 wrote:
Does the B12 really offer Texas what it needs in terms of future high profile games? While the Oklahoma rivalry is marquee, and OSU has been appreciable competition; the in-state competition with TTU, Baylor, and TCU doesn't generally match the greater interest that was shown in the long series with T A&M (and valued games with UN & Mizzou, when ranked, showed decent national appeal). However though, TTU, Balyor, and TCU are showing ranked success. Many talk about Texas being a big winner in the current B12 configuration due to protection mechanisms of their financial assets. However, I believe the biggest winners in all this are TTU, Balyor, and TCU----not because they draw revenue on the level Texas does (which they don't), but because another situation would offer them so much less.
ISU, KSU, OSU, and KU for the most part, are also thankful they remain in the more northern reaches of this power conference with a rivalry group, given that greater options have not been presented. And WVU, despite the travel and geographic isolation, knows it's the best situation available to them for now.


tkalmus wrote:
not only has UT's conference schedule gone downhill with the loss of the 4 former Big 12 schools, but also the loss of the divisional format is forcing UT to play KU/KSU/ISU/WVU every year instead of 2 out of 4 years. Its getting old quick, and while I would enjoy getting home/homes with KU every year (if our bball program could win again) most fans don't enjoy it. But I'll go into more detail later.

No, it doesn't offer many great conference games, but it'll do for now...

Losing Colorado/Mizzou doesn't matter much to me other than academics, athletically speaking WVU is about the same (or possibly better).

Losing Nebraska sucks but there's not much we can do about it and we were only playing them 2 out of 4 years.

Swapping A&M for TCU isn't good but its not like we added Rice, TCU is a really good team. I'll address more on A&M below.

Most what suck is how much the round robin hurts the perception of the conference (though it does truly suck this year) while larger conferences get more top ranked teams as they play each other less. It easy to see that Dodds left us in a weaker conference athletically/academically and I think that there is little doubt that UT will join the PAC12 next time around where UT/OU will still be the center pieces of the PAC12 Eastern division just like they were in the Big 12 South.

As far as the big winners go, its easy to say its Texas with the LHN, but when you break it down they almost have it the worst in the conference, second only to Oklahoma who is the only school in the conference to have less money coming in than before. Every school other than OU (once TCU/WVU become fully vested) will have received more of a pay raise than Texas, who when all things considered will only be making 5 million more a year (which goes directly to the university and not the athletic department). So other than the exposure of the LHN (which is minimal at best) its hard for me to see how UT came out on top of this round of realignment as most suggest, which is why I sometimes take offense when people toss out the big bad mean ole Texas card around. Yes they acted in self interest but they also sacrificed a lot in order to make this conference work, so anyone in the Big 12 other than OU really has no room to talk.
sec03 wrote:
I have to believe there are basically only three schools in the B12 that can produce a real game changer. Texas and Oklahoma are the obvious two. Kansas is the third, particularly as it would most impact the northern tier of the conference.
If WVU would leave, the B12 may not care that much because of their location. Others, outside Tx, OU, and KU, initiating leaving on their own, just would not happen.

Impressive OOC scheduling has been an option, but what's available in-conference is a sticking label. Granted, the B12 has some very fine schools that are athletically successful in multiple dimensions. But does Texas, and a couple of others, see this "collection" as whom they most want to play in multiple sports, year in and year out?
Again, there are at least 3 that may have the opportunity to ponder the question, seriously, down the road.

I think you sell core of the Big 12 a little short, the only true loser in this scenario in ISU but if referencing realignment "jewels" you're right, but the tag-a-longs (TT/OSU) bring good value too.

I'd like to see the 4 go West, KU get the B1G invite, and WVU get the ACC invite.

I don't think the Big 12 is long term solution, but it'll will work until 2025, but at that point I think it'll be over and you'll the the remaining Big 12 schools add the AAC western schools (SMU/Houston/Tulane/Memphis/Tulsa) and continue on but without the playoff/bowl bid. I only really worry for Kansas who could end up w/o a seat if the PAC12 stops at 16 and the SEC/B1G leave them hanging.

Now for A&M...while the rivalry has stopped, it would be pretty hard to play it OOC with only 3 OOC games, look at Utah they stopped the BYU rivalry for that reason, so why would it be any easier for UT to schedule A&M every year. The SEC has 4 OOC games thus scheduling GT/Clem/FSU/Lville is fairly easy but with Texas already scheduling some good OOC game over the next few years (just did 2012-14 w/ Ole Miss, UCLA, BYU; '15-16 ND/Cal, '17/18 USC/MD, '19/'20 ND, '21 Arky, '22/'23 tOSU) it would be hard to get A&M into the schedule until 2019 and even then it would only further make our schedule worse as we'd just be adding anther TX school to the mix thus giving us ten routine games.

IF the Big 12 expand with say Cincy/UConn, then I think we go back to a straight North/South divide because that's what the South schools want and it will make the most money for everyone involved and make the conference appear less weak though we just add 2 additional doormats. Then and likely only then you might see Texas restart the annual A&M series at that point.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:17 pm 
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The Big 12 doesn't want UConn. No one wants UConn.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:56 pm 
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The problem of discounting ISU is their size and academics. That's the second biggest school in the Big XII...it has to be worth something.

Quote:
The Big 12 doesn't want UConn. No one wants UConn.


I think they're desired, probably most by the ACC, but tell that to the schools they sued that now reside there.

I think the Big XII wishes there was someone else of the status of UConn (flagship school, sizable) they could attract to justify their inclusion. UConn to the Big XII by itself as a northeastern school is not likely in the cards, and UConn and Cincy isn't attractive, either. UConn and BYU is a definite "heck no," even if the most attractive combination for big, decent schools.

The Dude is spreading UCF-B12 rumors, as well as BYU still being a PitA in negotiations with the conference...


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:36 am 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
The Dude is spreading UCF-B12 rumors, as well as BYU still being a PitA in negotiations with the conference...


Now we know where you get your insight Bishin Cutter. :idea: :o :)

Yep, trying to have an eastern division to the B12, as said, one would find very slim the pickins'. UConn is so far away and nothing much is around to add to it.

The Big12 doesn't want to sing forth an old Pet Shop Boys hit, 'Go West'. But that's where some of the more plausible possibilities reside.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:33 am 
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louisvillecard01 wrote:
The Bishin Cutter wrote:
The Dude is spreading UCF-B12 rumors, as well as BYU still being a PitA in negotiations with the conference...


Now we know where you get your insight Bishin Cutter. :idea: :o :)

Yep, trying to have an eastern division to the B12, as said, one would find very slim the pickins'. UConn is so far away and nothing much is around to add to it.

The Big12 doesn't want to sing forth an old Pet Shop Boys hit, 'Go West'. But that's where some of the more plausible possibilities reside.


Hahaha! Done deal!

To his credit, sometimes he riles up enough of a reaction that schools have to make public statements. A sort of "accountability check." Problem with these two schools are that BYU never says a word, and this is actually flattering for UCF. The Big XII has rarely budged from "we're good at ten." Nothing substantive can really be had from this.

One thing I eagerly await is for WVU to be happily situated where it wants to be (SEC or ACC). Having been slighted by the ACC and rejected by the SEC, they've really thrown a wrench into conference stability. Acting like a bunch of hot-heads over how the Big East handled its business, taking their squeaky wheel act to the Big XII where any expansion seems to have to satisfy the Mountaineers' eastern issue when the supply is more out west...this "revenge mode" they seem to take has really gotten out of hand.

Does anyone think it's possible the NCAA could address how "The Dude" gets his information and how WVU fans help to spread it throughout the internet? Is there an institutional connection?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:34 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
One thing I eagerly await is for WVU to be happily situated where it wants to be (SEC or ACC). Having been slighted by the ACC and rejected by the SEC, they've really thrown a wrench into conference stability. Acting like a bunch of hot-heads over how the Big East handled its business, taking their squeaky wheel act to the Big XII where any expansion seems to have to satisfy the Mountaineers' eastern issue when the supply is more out west...this "revenge mode" they seem to take has really gotten out of hand.

Does anyone think it's possible the NCAA could address how "The Dude" gets his information and how WVU fans help to spread it throughout the internet? Is there an institutional connection?


The Dude throws a lot of stuff out there and sees what sticks and then points to it. There could be WVU sources that feed him tidbits or urge him to generate certain rumors that may favor WVU's objectives. On the other hand, he may be regarded as an independent figure without direct connections, that few of importance listen to, and who craves attention.

I don't believe the NCAA has any grounds to inject itself into "speech" coming from twitter, chat boards, etc. But they injected themselves into the Penn State scandal in a unique way, so if they somehow tried, it would not be all-suprising.

I think it's up to the B12 to ask WVU officials if they are leaking information contrary to the B12's interests. If something is found, they could press the university to find the source and discreetly take care of it.

I do believe WVU is misplaced in the B12, not because of capabilities, but because of the geographic divide. The toll with this is showing sooner rather than later.

WVU would be more comfortable within the SEC than their situation now, but the ACC would appear to be the best spot for them.

I certainly agree, WVU is out there showing certain expansion decisions were not the best, and lends credence to the impression that expansion is unsettled.

Messages like those from the Dude can be entertaining, but have to be taken with a few grains of salt. If they do reflect viewpoints going deeper at WVU, then it's at least some indicator as to what is being batted-about there.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:39 am 
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I just wonder if there's any confidentiality being breached. It's one thing to report old FoIA stuff, but those kind of findings aren't packaged for mass consumption/speculation the way the Dude handles them. The other potential red flag is how the Big XII benefits from these matters to the detriment of others.

To what extent happened between the Big XII and Florida State, yeah...it was kind of odd and a bit fishy.

It's not that the Dude is all that wonderful a source. I know he's full of crap most/all of the time. But why *his* stuff gets propelled into the sky time and time again, it's not just a concern about his sources (if there are any), but who's giving the guy a bigger platform and speakers. It's not as organic as it seems. :?

/tinfoilhat

One thing is for sure, they sure are a disingenuous bunch in Morgantown. This big need for more eastern schools, with the best options coming from Florida? That's not a reprieve on the schedule. That's a recruiting advantage. And now it figures why USF was so desperately needed after Miami left. Right.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:21 am 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
I just wonder if there's any confidentiality being breached. It's one thing to report old FoIA stuff, but those kind of findings aren't packaged for mass consumption/speculation the way the Dude handles them. The other potential red flag is how the Big XII benefits from these matters to the detriment of others.

To what extent happened between the Big XII and Florida State, yeah...it was kind of odd and a bit fishy.

It's not that the Dude is all that wonderful a source. I know he's full of crap most/all of the time. But why *his* stuff gets propelled into the sky time and time again, it's not just a concern about his sources (if there are any), but who's giving the guy a bigger platform and speakers. It's not as organic as it seems. :?

/tinfoilhat

One thing is for sure, they sure are a disingenuous bunch in Morgantown. This big need for more eastern schools, with the best options coming from Florida? That's not a reprieve on the schedule. That's a recruiting advantage. And now it figures why USF was so desperately needed after Miami left. Right.


Is this tuxedoyoda the same person?


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:46 am 
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louisvillecard01 wrote:

Is this tuxedoyoda the same person?


I don't think so. They feed off each other, though. And Mhver3 is like their free press.

I don't know why so many people indulge them. I don't know if they were ever really right on anything. None of them EVER had anything about the Big Ten moves.

These guys were also pushing the whole UNC/UVA-Big Ten thing. Well, if this recent article sheds any light, it's no coincidence the Big Ten couldn't do better than Rutgers. They don't want the Big Ten in Chapel Hill.

So, after all of these rounds of expansion rumors, the only thing that becomes more accurate is that West Virginia wants a Florida school. LOL, I wonder how long it will be until we see FAU or FIU in the conversation.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:35 am 
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Let's say the Big 12 gets blown up--everybody is gone but Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU. Do those 4 rebuild the conference or do they look into joining the American and/or MWC? I could see the Texas schools going to the. MWC and the prairie schools in the American. I don't see either league expanding by 4 to take them all in. If they rebuild the big 12 I could see them grabbing up the western American schools as well as Cincinnati, and the two Florida schools of a league like this:

East: Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ISU, K State, Memphis
west: TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:27 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
Let's say the Big 12 gets blown up--everybody is gone but Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU. Do those 4 rebuild the conference or do they look into joining the American and/or MWC? I could see the Texas schools going to the. MWC and the prairie schools in the American. I don't see either league expanding by 4 to take them all in. If they rebuild the big 12 I could see them grabbing up the western American schools as well as Cincinnati, and the two Florida schools of a league like this:

East: Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ISU, K State, Memphis
West: TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa


I would add more schools to make the conference more balanced (especially for the East schools).

East: Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, Navy
West: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Tulsa, Kansas St, Tulane


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:58 am 
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fighting muskie wrote:
Let's say the Big 12 gets blown up--everybody is gone but Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU. Do those 4 rebuild the conference or do they look into joining the American and/or MWC? I could see the Texas schools going to the. MWC and the prairie schools in the American. I don't see either league expanding by 4 to take them all in. If they rebuild the big 12 I could see them grabbing up the western American schools as well as Cincinnati, and the two Florida schools of a league like this:

East: Cincinnati, USF, UCF, ISU, K State, Memphis
west: TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa

If the Big 12 gets blown up so will the ACC to Cincy won't be there...

I'd propose getting back staying somewhat regional, major conferences need markets, non-major conferenes need regional interest and rivalries.

North: Northern Illiniois, Iowa St, K State, Tulsa, Memphis, +1 (WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, ArkSt, USM, UTEP/swap w/ Tulane)
South: TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Rice, Tulane

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:59 am 
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I think the Big XII remnants tap into that original Mountain West core, since more than a few of those schools have a "friendly" history going back to the WAC, Big 8, and SWC days.

Good news for schools like Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force, and New Mexico; bad for the directional Floridas and mid-south city schools.

I could see: Iowa State, Kansas State, Tulsa, Baylor, TCU, Rice/Houston (pick one), New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, and Wyoming. Maybe BYU is willing to work with this cluster, and if so, then USU gets a spot. There's your 12.

I see Tulsa getting in because there was some support for them back in the day, but because of OU and OSU, were obviously marginalized. I see them getting more favor than a school like UTEP, especially because of that MWC core.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:48 pm 
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The B12 could enhance themselves by expanding. There are possibilites, but very limited in quality choices for their purpose. When they added WVU, they refused to take also Louisville, let alone Cincinnati. The conference had to know WVU, alone, would be sticking out there like a sore thumb in terms of a geographic connection. But Bowlsby's tenure has added nothing once he came onboard. His comments about expansion have been more status quo than any commissioner out there, and the conference is two less than what they had before, and two less to even match their name. The conference does not want a CCG if it means expanding, and apparently refuse to add with anybody willing. If they were earlier trying to court FSU and Clemson, that went no-where. Frankly, most of that, then, was alot of unsubstantiated rumors and speculation, and later was suggested as moves once the B1G and SEC extracted whom they wanted from the ACC.

The B12 needs more market footprint, and bring in way more fans and more appealing rivalries to the conference. BYU could help in this. Cincy may not add a whole heap, but it is probably the only plausible choice for heading in the direction of WVU. CSU, UNM, Wyoming, etc., are certainly not particularly distinguished in dimensions sought; but it could be more of 'come and build'. I really don't see where the Florida schools are going to do grand things for schools in the plains states and southwest.

It may be true that some schools in the B12 have strong interest to really move to another major conference and are just playing the waiting game. Yet, they all embraced the GoR. With what the ACC has done, the B12 still will not budge about further expansion. The odd thing is they still have dandy schools in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and maybe a couple of more. But to elevate themselves further with the power-5, adding new and formidable fans bases with connecting locales would help.

B12 is indeed a strange (less a point about right or wrong) conference with some of their decisions. But that does not excuse the ACC either. The ACC invited ND to leech on them, refused to accept WVU but Louisville was fine for replacing Maryland, a charter member they lost. That great northeast domination they sought got pricked by the B1G taking their Maryland plus adding Rutgers. One day, that ACC core in North Carolina (and Virginia) will get busted. The B12 may or may not survive in the future. In either case, the ACC will ultimately be on the recieving end of more substantial change also.


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