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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:13 pm 
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BYU was a strong consideration when the B12 was formed, and the story went that Baylor got the spot. Since Colorado left the B12, maybe the attraction for BYU diminished. The B12 did converse with the AFA about joining. Still, CSU could be a bridge if BYU was still desirable. Of course, assessing the value of CSU would be necessary.
Since the B12 added WVU, maybe the focus is in that direction if they choose to re-consider more expansion. But the B12 passed on Louisville with WVU, and they don't show overt interest in Cincy though near everyone talking B12 expansion mentions them.
BYU had the 'no Sunday play' the first time they were under consideration. Maybe it is now more complicated with BYU's TV broadcasting contract along with BYU TV interests. Perhaps BYU's governance is even more less flexible now. I get the impression that the B12 and BYU have had serious, but quiet, discussions the last few years, but are unable to bridge certain differences.
It's unclear if a group of B12 schools are opposed to having BYU. I believe they have to resolve the financial, technical, and practical differences first. 'No Sunday play' can even be an issue for fb. BYU opposes even Sunday travel beginning with anything after 12:00am to get back to Provo. The B12 may view BYU's demands for accommodations on scheduling a bit too problematic.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:06 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
BYU was a strong consideration when the B12 was formed, and the story went that Baylor got the spot. Since Colorado left the B12, maybe the attraction for BYU diminished. The B12 did converse with the AFA about joining. Still, CSU could be a bridge if BYU was still desirable. Of course, assessing the value of CSU would be necessary.
Since the B12 added WVU, maybe the focus is in that direction if they choose to re-consider more expansion. But the B12 passed on Louisville with WVU, and they don't show overt interest in Cincy though near everyone talking B12 expansion mentions them.
BYU had the 'no Sunday play' the first time they were under consideration. Maybe it is now more complicated with BYU's TV broadcasting contract along with BYU TV interests. Perhaps BYU's governance is even more less flexible now. I get the impression that the B12 and BYU have had serious, but quiet, discussions the last few years, but are unable to bridge certain differences.
It's unclear if a group of B12 schools are opposed to having BYU. I believe they have to resolve the financial, technical, and practical differences first. 'No Sunday play' can even be an issue for fb. BYU opposes even Sunday travel beginning with anything after 12:00am to get back to Provo. The B12 may view BYU's demands for accommodations on scheduling a bit too problematic.


I kind of get the feeling that the BYU ship has set sail. If that is really the case, there really aren't that many options left in the west for the Big 12. Maybe Boise State and Colorado State. I'm not sure CSU is a very attractive get either. The New Mexico's and Wyoming should not even be brought up for discussion. Having them on your schedule as a conference game would do more harm than good. The California junior league teams don't really fit the bill either because of the travel. Losing two hours due to time zones every time you fly home would be tough on the kids who play during the week.

Looking in the opposite direction, other than Cincy, Memphis and possibly the directional Florida schools I'm not sure there is a whole lot of semi-attractive schools in the east. Memphis would hurt the conference in football, but they would make up for it in BBall. The Florida schools have great TV markets and great recruiting, but other than one season by UCF, neither has really done much to merit an invitation into one of the Power 5 conferences, especially the Big 12. Cincy is the best option for the Big 12 right now, solid in football and hoops. However, finding a partner to enter the league with them is the hard part, especially if BYU is indeed off the table.

IMO the Big 12 really missed the boat the last time they expanded. When they added TCU and WVU, they should have gone ahead and gone back to 12 teams by also poaching Louisville and Cincy. If the ACC is raided again, you can beat that they will try to replace whoever the lose with Cincy and UConn. If Cincy is off the table, I am not sure how the Big 12 could expand if they felt it necessary in order to survive.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:25 pm 
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Does anyone here think there will be a Big 12 in 2026?


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2014 6:46 pm 
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I don't think it was a mistake of the Big XII not going in on Louisville. West Virginia was better, and Louisville fashioned itself an eastern school. Not that West Virginia is a heartland one, but their "history" (read: issues) with the SoCon/ACC schools and Big East put them in a far more unique situation than Louisville had faced. Cincy would be the same...an eastern school "forced" to move into the Great Plains only because of opportunity. A GoR could keep anyone in one place for a few years, but viability and institutional identity would have created a rift between the institution and its athletic affiliations. The ACC (or SEC) would get them before the question was fully posed. West Virginia wouldn't be so lucky.

As for BYU...they're a guaranteed money maker but a genuine pain. I think they remain out of the majors because there's a mistrust over how the tabernacle would use the institutional affiliation with these major schools to persuade kids they could get everything any of these other schools could offer in good ole Provo. And it's not a two-way street. BYU takes, and it doesn't give much back. Just ask Hawaii...


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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2014 4:24 pm 
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I think the Big 12 dissolves (various reasons, just ask me) whenever the P5 becomes the P4. I also think the ACC will become a major (the strongest?) player in the P4 by shedding 1-2 of it's NC schools (Wake and/or NCST) and adding ND, UConn and Cincy to reach 16. I think they will make big strides in football (over next 20-30 years) with: FSU, Miami, Clemson, ND and VT. And I think basketball reaches an untouchable level of excellence along with annual conference tournaments in NYC. Right now the ACC has the largest geographic and significant TV footprint. Losing 1-2 overkills/water in NC schools coupled with getting Notre Dame, into Ohio and having the wealthy state of Connecticut will only improve on that valuable trait. Also, should the sport of football drop in national popularity, the ACC would be home to the best collection of sports programs that aren't football programs from men's and women's hoops to lacrosse and soccer. Keep an eye on soccer, people. Another 20-30 years of popularity growth and it will pay to host good soccer. Think about say future Premier League players lacing up for Duke or Virginia. Or the next Lionel Messi CHOOSING to play for North Carolina instead of the Barcelona Youth Team when he is 18 years old (some Euro basketball recruits choose Kentucky, Duke, Kansas now for example).

The Big Ten is doomed to least powerful P4 as I think their recent moves show a sense of desperation not becoming of a conference poised to head the P4. If important candidate schools really honestly believed that the Big Ten would someday be top dog in the P4, then they would join now instead of spurning it. Virginia, for example, basically said it would rather play 4 NCs, Louisville and a bunch of private schools for the next 100 years RATHER than join the current richest conference. Notre Dame is clearly not joining either or they would have joined at 12 Big Ten schools (nearly voted to in 1999) and then shared less with other Big Ten schools (and they hate sharing more than they love earning). Same for joining at 14. At 16, forget about them sharing with 15(!) other Big Ten schools. They would share with say Boston College before they would dream of sharing with Michigan or Ohio State. Likewise, they have shown for 50 years and counting that they don't want to earn more sharing with Michigan or Ohio State. Funny enough, they have shared with and given to DePaul and Seton Hall during this time period. Just to show you that they will share as they know that there is no way the recipient will ever reach their level of money/power/influence (no school in the old Big East came within a light year of doing so).

SEC dominance in sports will obviously continue as it is based on local recruiting which is a natural trait, but I think that asset maxes out at some point after SECN has roots (few years?) to the point where yes, it matters a lot, but it doesn't matter to the point of say Auburn with additional football titles being more valuable than having Notre Dame or say Florida getting more titles, but SECN not carried in NY/NJ while ACCN (hypothetical) is carried there along with Boston, DC, Philly etc.

The PAC is not in good shape to ever lead the P4, but with populations rising in Western States, they edge the Big Ten for me. With Texas, they could pass the SEC for second but there will never be more people living out west than out east (at least for another 200 years) so the king of the east (I say will be ACC) will always be the king of the P4.

The fate of Big 12 is a money thing. It's really simple and the two main factors are consumer base and conference membership (including potential conference membership). Only a "dreamlike" Big 12 could have ever made it to 2050. Something like...

+ Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Iowa ect.

Some conferences have 14 nukes and some have 5. Eventually, they'll all get launched those with less won't defeat those with more. The only sort of tin foil hat-level way the Big 12 could make it to 2050 is if cost of travel becomes more than cost of fielding a team. Then it would behoove P5's to be smaller geographically and with less members.


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PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 10:49 pm 
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Only the SEC strikes me as the conference who's made the best moves since the push past 10+. They've pushed their borders in every move, absorbing institutions from states with cultural links to the conference. It simply can't be said of the others. The PAC didn't need Utah, and it turned away a great school in Oklahoma. The Big Ten took a Nebraska program that's in academic cleanup mode, a historic non-contributor in Rutgers, and a Maryland program that will virtually cut the B1G off from any ACC programs who might have had some second thoughts about joining the Rust Belt conference. But, even in the ACC...they alienated UMD, spurned a beltway school in JHU who probably wanted to be there, and, honestly, I think there are others still not really thrilled how things have gone down.

But, when compared to the Big XII, when it seems content at ten after diluting itself with TCU and a West Virginia program that's already having viability issues? And the Big XII wants the NCAA to change and accommodate them...those other four still look like they're doing better. Maybe because they are.

I still don't see the unified front that Bowlsby says exists. Something like at least three of its members talking about wanting to expand when the commish is saying all is well at ten?


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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 9:00 am 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Only the SEC strikes me as the conference who's made the best moves since the push past 10+. They've pushed their borders in every move, absorbing institutions from states with cultural links to the conference. It simply can't be said of the others. The PAC didn't need Utah, and it turned away a great school in Oklahoma. The Big Ten took a Nebraska program that's in academic cleanup mode, a historic non-contributor in Rutgers, and a Maryland program that will virtually cut the B1G off from any ACC programs who might have had some second thoughts about joining the Rust Belt conference. But, even in the ACC...they alienated UMD, spurned a beltway school in JHU who probably wanted to be there, and, honestly, I think there are others still not really thrilled how things have gone down.

But, when compared to the Big XII, when it seems content at ten after diluting itself with TCU and a West Virginia program that's already having viability issues? And the Big XII wants the NCAA to change and accommodate them...those other four still look like they're doing better. Maybe because they are.

I still don't see the unified front that Bowlsby says exists. Something like at least three of its members talking about wanting to expand when the commish is saying all is well at ten?


I don't have any issues with any of your points except the one bolded above.

Everything you said is fair except that line as it implies that the Big 12 is leading the charge for their benefit when they are simply supporting a proposal.

The ACC (not the Big12) petitioned for the NCAA to make the rule change to CCG structure, the Big 12 just supported the petition.

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PostPosted: Mon May 05, 2014 1:06 pm 
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Trying to predict what major conferences may do is not real science, and I would not call it an art either, given some of the results.

I concur, that the SEC, comparatively, made the best strategic picks during the prior round of expansion. While leaving one conference there are the given disappointments and residue of bitterness resulting, the moves to the SEC transitioned about as good as one could expect. The additions were contiguous with very respectable academic and athletic dimensions.

I grasp the B1G's strategy in who and how they picked. The motive and influences that landed Nebraska as the B1G's #12, differ in terms of certain objectives and goals regarding the acquisitions of Maryland and Rutgers. The latter has a "yet to be proven" aspect to it, yet is an investment the B1G is expecting to pay dividends for the future. It may be a risk in terms of the actual results yielded, but the B1G was not doing this in the dark. They did run the figures, as vulnerable as such may be, that footholds in the northeast corridor shall gain them fantastic TV opportunities, and provide them with more impressive media coverage. Receiving lucrative venue deals and expanding recruiting grounds for fb, bb, etc., are anticipated. While keeping the bb challenge with the ACC, the B1G is now embarking on the new Gavitt bb challenge with the BE. The B1G, along with a new office in NYC, is using establishments (conferences) there to facilitate their imprint and growth to ultimately dominate.

I agree with Bigshotbob's comments pertaining to the cluster of ACC schools in North Carolina. No matter if the ACC adds more, it still is a perceptual and practical issue. My belief is that it would actually help the ACC to have less concentration there. NC State would be the most logistic school to move to the SEC. And frankly, the separation may actually be good for NCSU to project their own identity. The rest already in the ACC appear very solid to remain there. However, I don't think the ACC is going to overtake neighboring conferences in the pecking order among the Power 5. The conference is obviously dominant in North Carolina and Virginia, but beyond that, they have shared markets with some higher profile schools from the SEC and B1G.

Greatly impacting what a separated-out Power 5, or even a suggested or implied Power 4, will look like, depends largely on what the Big 12 does or does not do. To narrow that further, Texas and/or Oklahoma making a change could have profound effects. They know it, and shall play their cards accordingly. I do think the PAC12 made an unwise decision not accepting the Oklahoma duo deal. Had the Oklahoma schools left the B12, the conference could become ultimately dismantled or highly diminished, Texas' options would still be there, though piecing together the remnants of the B12 would not be one of them.

Four power conferences at 16 members each may look nifty for consistency in formats, CCGs', bowls matchups, and playoff assignments, but I am not sold on the idea there are going to be the flexibilities, incentives, and cooperation to reach such. There's so much selfishness and protectionism going on with a number of individual schools within the major conferences that compromising just to make improved divisions, schedule 'coop' agreements in fb, or decide how many and which conference teams within to play, that movement on the minor stuff poses challenges each time a proposal is advanced. The more global objectives just look beyond reach, currently, to be labeled as a comprehensive vision they are all buying into while embracing new growing pains. It's what partial objectives will be met, and that is in the process of happening in a somewhat disjointed and piecemeal way. And of course whatever they do, they don't mind sacrificing those on the outside looking in; but can sure bet on the them giving Notre Dame special criteria and accommodations.

A new super-division is really about greed, exclusion, and making newer, more friendly rules for themselves. I would not declare equity and fairness, even from within the 'haves', are the prime intent.


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PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 9:38 am 
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USAToday article(previously posted in another thread)discussing Big-12 2012-2013 revenue numbers at http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/co ... es/9020973


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PostPosted: Fri May 16, 2014 5:57 pm 
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bigshotbob wrote:
Keep an eye on soccer, people. Another 20-30 years of popularity growth and it will pay to host good soccer. Think about say future Premier League players lacing up for Duke or Virginia. Or the next Lionel Messi CHOOSING to play for North Carolina instead of the Barcelona Youth Team when he is 18 years old (some Euro basketball recruits choose Kentucky, Duke, Kansas now for example).


I looked at this the first time, I laughed. Messi was taken on in Barcelona, where they corrected his hormone issues (he wasn't growing properly) and, along the way, he got paid well before turning 20. Does anyone see a college doing that?

Even MLS is trying like heck to go the other direction.

I almost wondered if my sarcasm meter was running... or not. But no, this isn't the way of things in the sport.


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PostPosted: Fri May 16, 2014 9:27 pm 
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bigshotbob wrote:
I think the Big 12 dissolves (various reasons, just ask me) whenever the P5 becomes the P4. I also think the ACC will become a major (the strongest?) player in the P4 by shedding 1-2 of it's NC schools (Wake and/or NCST) and adding ND, UConn and Cincy to reach 16. I think they will make big strides in football (over next 20-30 years) with: FSU, Miami, Clemson, ND and VT. And I think basketball reaches an untouchable level of excellence along with annual conference tournaments in NYC. Right now the ACC has the largest geographic and significant TV footprint. Losing 1-2 overkills/water in NC schools coupled with getting Notre Dame, into Ohio and having the wealthy state of Connecticut will only improve on that valuable trait. Also, should the sport of football drop in national popularity, the ACC would be home to the best collection of sports programs that aren't football programs from men's and women's hoops to lacrosse and soccer. Keep an eye on soccer, people. Another 20-30 years of popularity growth and it will pay to host good soccer. Think about say future Premier League players lacing up for Duke or Virginia. Or the next Lionel Messi CHOOSING to play for North Carolina instead of the Barcelona Youth Team when he is 18 years old (some Euro basketball recruits choose Kentucky, Duke, Kansas now for example).

The Big Ten is doomed to least powerful P4 as I think their recent moves show a sense of desperation not becoming of a conference poised to head the P4. If important candidate schools really honestly believed that the Big Ten would someday be top dog in the P4, then they would join now instead of spurning it. Virginia, for example, basically said it would rather play 4 NCs, Louisville and a bunch of private schools for the next 100 years RATHER than join the current richest conference. Notre Dame is clearly not joining either or they would have joined at 12 Big Ten schools (nearly voted to in 1999) and then shared less with other Big Ten schools (and they hate sharing more than they love earning). Same for joining at 14. At 16, forget about them sharing with 15(!) other Big Ten schools. They would share with say Boston College before they would dream of sharing with Michigan or Ohio State. Likewise, they have shown for 50 years and counting that they don't want to earn more sharing with Michigan or Ohio State. Funny enough, they have shared with and given to DePaul and Seton Hall during this time period. Just to show you that they will share as they know that there is no way the recipient will ever reach their level of money/power/influence (no school in the old Big East came within a light year of doing so).

SEC dominance in sports will obviously continue as it is based on local recruiting which is a natural trait, but I think that asset maxes out at some point after SECN has roots (few years?) to the point where yes, it matters a lot, but it doesn't matter to the point of say Auburn with additional football titles being more valuable than having Notre Dame or say Florida getting more titles, but SECN not carried in NY/NJ while ACCN (hypothetical) is carried there along with Boston, DC, Philly etc.

The PAC is not in good shape to ever lead the P4, but with populations rising in Western States, they edge the Big Ten for me. With Texas, they could pass the SEC for second but there will never be more people living out west than out east (at least for another 200 years) so the king of the east (I say will be ACC) will always be the king of the P4.

The fate of Big 12 is a money thing. It's really simple and the two main factors are consumer base and conference membership (including potential conference membership). Only a "dreamlike" Big 12 could have ever made it to 2050. Something like...

+ Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Iowa ect.

Some conferences have 14 nukes and some have 5. Eventually, they'll all get launched those with less won't defeat those with more. The only sort of tin foil hat-level way the Big 12 could make it to 2050 is if cost of travel becomes more than cost of fielding a team. Then it would behoove P5's to be smaller geographically and with less members.


As long as football is America's favorite sport, the SEC will stay ahead of the ACC. College athletics revolves around football, and there is no comparison between the two leagues. There are 4 really good programs in the ACC (FSU, Clemson, Miami and Va Tech). For now at least, the rest are middle of the road programs (I don't count Louisville because I haven't seen them play in the ACC and Notre Dame is not a full time member). The SEC has 7 legitimate contenders (Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas AM, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina). I would also say the middle of the pack teams in the SEC (Ole Miss, Miss St, Mizzou, Vandy, Tenn) are better programs than what you find in the middle of the ACC. As far as men's hoops goes, the ACC is better hands down. But the SEC should get better, way better. Arkansas will eventually find a good coach and start winning again. How long can Mizzou stay down? Bruce Pearl has a track record of turning programs around. The SEC will probably never catch the ACC in men's hoops, unless the SEC expands to 16 and takes UNC and Kansas, but they will be more competitive.


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PostPosted: Sun May 18, 2014 12:55 pm 
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bigshotbob wrote:
I think the Big 12 dissolves (various reasons, just ask me) whenever the P5 becomes the P4. I also think the ACC will become a major (the strongest?) player in the P4 by shedding 1-2 of it's NC schools (Wake and/or NCST) and adding ND, UConn and Cincy to reach 16.

Unless it is something like the situation with Temple fb in the old BE; and the time before they got the invite to return for all-sports right before the conference basically disintegrated. While politics and pettiness were involved, Temple did little at the time to improve their situation prior to the ax falling. This differs from situations such as UMass' fb-only contract with the MAC or what the future holds for partial memberships contracted with the SBC. There's a big difference between not renewing an agreement, and a scenario where some school would be booted out as an all-sports member because of the perceived failure to deliver or the conference sees itself having too much saturation due to the number of schools in a particular geographic market.

Using the term 'shed' implies a conference action against their own, in terms of the referencing of Wake Forest and NC State, ACC charter members. Forced departures will not happen with either of those two. Both have strong alliances within the ACC. Wake Forest would be the last school that would want to leave the ACC. Voluntarily leaving for a better situation as Maryland thought---yes; but such, initially, may only be available to a handful or so of ACC schools at maximum if new circumstances allowed. There is alleged SEC interest in NCSU, particularly if UNC is off the table as a future option. Thus, NCSU may have appeal for elsewhere (namely the SEC) among the power 5; for Wake Forest, that's not there. Now, if the ACC helped facilitate, for example, a NCSU transition to the SEC in the context of a more comprehensive deal, then I suppose one could say they sort of shed somebody for what may be perceived as the greater good. But high profile departures seldom appear pleasant for the former host, and the ACC has shown itself to be highly spiteful with the Maryland departure.

If the ACC is able to pressure anything, maybe they should start with pushing to get a full commitment from Notre Dame. But ND has their terms with the ACC inked solidly. The ACC are the ones left 'hoping' with this deal. Never sign a contract whereby one party is left 'hoping', and the other is not.

There may be a future point whereby all major conferences are influenced or forced to drop or trade off members. This would be driven by broadcasting networks and marketing. But do we really want to see the climate for that to happen? It's forcing expansion already, but how long before they turn to deletions within a conference to make room to be more powerful and lucrative? Talking about really injecting instability and paranoia.......

Right now, the B1G, SEC, and PAC12, are the three conferences not apt to lose anybody. All of them will eventually add a couple or so members each and not lose anybody. The B12 and the ACC could, and probably will, lose members to two or all of the other three power conferences. The current GoRs' may certainly postpone it, but ultimately, not stop movement.

I believe the ACC and the B12 survive the next round of expansion. However, both will have significant change. The ACC can replace two to four loses and still be functionally respected but diminished in the perception of power. The B12, by comparison, is more vulnerable with any new loses. Even now, they don't see adding anyone brings value. If Texas and/or Oklahoma go, probably taking one or two with them, the B12 is devastated as a power 5 type. Even Kansas or Oklahoma State leaving, would hurt badly. The remnants of the B12 would either re-group with some MWC and AAC schools, or be absorbed by one or both of the two.

What the following schools do, or don't do, shall have a profound impact on what happens as to the power 4 idea: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, and Notre Dame. Others that could influence the process in a major way include Oklahoma State, Clemson, GT, VPI, Miami(Fl), and Duke (tied to UNC), and even West Virginia by making a move as a catalyst.


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PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 6:31 pm 
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SEC03--Great analysis as always. When we look at the Big 12 and ACC I think what we have to ask ourselves is "Which members can these conferences not afford to lose?"

For the Big 12 this is a simple answer---Texas and Oklahoma--if they leave they bring a couple retainer schools with them and the league is diminished to roughly the same level as the MWC and AAC in terms of competitiveness and only marginally better than those two leagues in terms of television value.

For the ACC this is a more complicated answer. Florida St is the only true elite, college football blueblood. Their loss would be severe in terms of overall perception of the conference and television value. Clemson also has decent value. UVA and UNC, while not elite football institutions, would certainly leave a massive gap in the conference.

With the removal of just a few schools we have a new order in college football and the dawn of a three-conference system.


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PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2014 9:46 am 
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No way UNC every leaves the ACC. When you ask anyone, anywhere in the USA to name a team from the ACC, majority of them would say UNC. Why because of the Brand! UNC is not going to leave the ACC (Best basketball conference hands down, yes had a tough year this year but will be back). The ACC is to basketball what the SEC is to football. Neither of these conferences will desolve or lose any members. Maryland left because they could no longer compete in basketball in the ACC and with new comers coming in they would have been pushed even further down the pecking order. Lower teams like Wake and Georgia Tech arn't going anywhere because who else is going to invite them. UNC and DUKE basketball is the best rivalry in all of sports (hands down) and no way will the ACC let either leave. However NCST and UVA are intertwined with UNC and thus UNC will not leave them. Say what you will about the big conferences making more money. But they still are greedy. UNC has it made. They are in a P5 conference, has the Brand name, and still has 3 other member schools in the same state to have close travel games not to mention 4-5 other member schools that are in neighboring states. Much easier to travel to then say the BIG 12 conference.


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PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2014 10:44 am 
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Va Tech and Nc St could certainly go to the SEC.
Clemson and FSU could go to the B12
Ga Tech and UVA could go to the B10


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