I think that the Big 12 is set for as many years as there is a BCS. Everyone is pretty happy the way it is. Oh, Baylor is pretty weak in football now but that will change. Remember, Kansas State was once a doormat and they can definitely handle themselves now.
JFin, big difference between K-State and Baylor. K-State is a public school and can use state funds to help with football. Baylor must rely on private donations. It's a lot harder to win at a private school than a public school. This is not only true at the college level, but at the high school level too. I know this because I used to attend a private high school (Grace Bible Academy), and if we dared to challenge one of the big public schools in Dothan in basketball (Northview or Dothan High), we would get blown out. Private schools tend to be MUCH smaller than public schools. Same goes for private colleges vs public colleges, although I'm sure there's some exceptions to that rule.
If the Big Ten does actually add a team it will likely be Pitt. Big rival with Penn State and inside the current boundaries. Of course, IMO Penn State and Pittsburgh should both be in the Big East but money talks.
While I won't argue that Pitt could be a possibility for the Big Ten, I will argue with you JFin, that Pitt is the front runner for the 12th spot in the Big Ten. While Pitt is a state school (much like Temple), Pitt is easily dwarfed by a giant state school like Missouri. Also, the Big Ten could pick up some new markets like St. Louis or KC, but if they get Pitt, it would be like the Big 12 adding SMU should Colorado leave. Both are dumb moves, IMO. Just like Texas, TAMU, & OU carry the DFW market, PSU carries the Pittsburgh market. See now why I'm not too hot on Pitt to the Big Ten???
If by some miracle the Big 12 should lose a team, I'd look at Arkansas as the replacement. Good attendance, great facilities, closer rivalries and shorter travel distance than most any possible replacement.
Ok, JFin, repeat after me: Arkansas is NOT going to the Big 12. Arkansas is not going to the Big 12. Not now, not ever. While Arkansas DOES want to renew some of its rivalries with former SWC mates, it really does want to be in the same conference as them again. As for Arkansas getting the shaft this year by the SEC, that's load of baloney for two reasons:
1. The SEC does not control who the bowls pick. Bowls with SEC tie-ins pick who they want. If Arkansas has gripes with SEC tie-in bowls, they need to send their gripes to the bowl committees of SEC tie-in bowls, not the SEC commissioner's office. Arkansas would have a legitimate gripe with the SEC front office if they won the conference title and got sent to the Music City Bowl. The SEC Champion is always supposed to go to the BCS. After that though, bowl selection is really out of the SEC's hands.
2. A couple of the teams that were picked ahead of Arkansas for better bowls, Auburn and LSU, played better OOC scheds than Arkansas did. To Auburn's credit, they actually scheduled at least one decent OOC opponent, Southern Cal. Turned out to be great matchup too!! Plus, Auburn is a great draw for any Florida bowl. I'm not entirely sure about this, but doesn't Arkansas not draw too well down in Florida??Also, to LSU's credit, they also scheduled one decent OOC opponent, Virginia Tech. LSU lost that game, but they did play a tough OOC opponent, and I'm sure the Cotton Bowl took that into consideration. Another thing that probably hurt Arkansas this year is that they got to go to the Cotton Bowl last year and they have faced Texas in the Cotton Bowl recently (back in either 2000 or 2001). Bowls hate rematches.
A much more likely candidate for the Big 12, JFin, is BYU, for reasons that I've already stated earlier in this thread.