I just had a revelation.....
I look at a map, and with a strong Big XII, how is the PAC going to expand ?
Their footprint now is boxed in at the Rockie Mountains on the east.
So if we say the PAC owns the Mountain times zone, the Pacific time zone, and Hawaii, are there any expansion targets ?
You could pull in the entire state of Idaho by adding Boise State.
You could pull in a rabid mormon viewership wiht BYU.
You coud add Hawaii, but pulling in Hawaii (DUH)
Same with adding a school in Nevada or New Mexico.
Problem - the PAC financial distribution formula is now built on "equal share".
Never mind that UCLA / USC have an audience that dwarfs Washington State (in scenic Pullman, WA).
WSU is grandfathered-in....
But to expand to new TV markets, they could add specific schools in their footprint.
However, it is likely that overall viewership PER SCHOOL would dip, so the TV $ PER SCHOOL would take a hit.
WOULD IT MAKE SENSE to add schools under the proviso that they receive a partial [instead of a full] share ?
Then the concept of adding somewhat smaller schools is no longer economically silly ?
Disadvantages - Over time, Boise State gets P.O.'ed that they receive a 3/4 share, while WSU still receives it's grandfathered full share.
Advantages - Think about the case of adding SMU and Houston to Big XII (both schools are larger than TCU, I believe, but I could be wrong)
They get a partial share.... However, Texas starts including content from TT, TCU, Baylor, SMU, Houston on the Longhorn Network.
Now people might actually want a subscription to the LHN, since here is enough content to want to watch it more than 6 hours per year....
This would seem to be the purest economic model for the whole conference scheme, where each school gets paid by the eyeball,
in that each school would receive money commensurate wiht their actual TV worth, and there would be less incentive to try to create these ridiculous "cliques"...
Schools would then receive the same $ regardless of their association... and be less inclined to enter into these geographically preposterous alignmnets.
At this point, yes, it would make some sense. It's hard to justify any school in the Pac 12's footprint being worthy for expansion. I doubt any of their options would be able to even help their TV contracts just to break even. The options broken down by state populations are:
Utah is 34th (2.8 million), but BYU will NEVER be brought in to the Pac 12 and Utah brought enough of their fans
Nevada is 35th (2.7 million), but their fans split between UNR and UNLV
New Mexico is 36th (2.1 million). UNM would probably bring in most of those fans, especially if they start winning thanks to the Pac 12 money
Idaho is 39th (1.6 million). Boise would bring in the majority of those fans, especially if Idaho downgrades, but there would be some northerners that won't watch them
Hawaii is 40th (1.4 million). Hawaii would obviously bring in all sports fans from this state
Now, I was about to completely disregard all of these options but I noticed that Oregon has a population of around 3.9 million and they have TWO teams in that state. It stands to reason that Oregon State's fan base is probably not much bigger than some of those schools on that list. Worth noting, the states of Nevada and Utah grew the fastest on that list in the last 10 years. But the next question there is how many people in those states actually care about sports. Las Vegas is historically been a poor place for sports.