The Big 12 stating that they want to stay at 10 unless Notre Dame calls.http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootbal ... on-for-now
To me, not expanding is short sighted. It's hard for me to believe it's true
. By not taking FSU and Clemson, it leaves the Big XII vulnerable.
Yes, the Big XII is number 4 now but by not taking out the ACC now, leaves the door open for the ACC to possibly over take them in the future. What happens if let's say that FSU can regain it's prominence and their recruit classes under Jimbo have been top notch. Clemson becomes a regular in the top 20 and Virginia Tech stays a top 10 team.
What about if Baylor returns to what it was before RG3, Oklahoma State is the same team without Blackmon and Weeden. What if Texas A&M status as an SEC team changes recruiting in Texas or the SEC starts winning the "Champion Bowl' like the win national championships.
Finally, what if Notre Dame chooses the ACC over the Big 12. Yes, the Big 12 can offer Notre Dame football independence and their 3rd tier rights but look at what the ACC could offer if they wanted
Hey Notre Dame, the ACC here. What if you join us as our #15, you choose #16 from UConn, Rutgers, and Louisville, pick any 3 teams for your pod, we will play a 7 game conference schedule so you can keep your rival games, 3 in your pod, 1 non pod rival, and 1 opponent from the other 3 pods. Oh yeah, ESPN said you could your home games on NBC.
Yes this is way out there, but if you are desperate to remain relevant, who knows what you offer. Point is, the Big 12 could have eliminated the ACC.
My first reaction to the Big 12 decision to remain at 10 was similar to yours. When you look more closely at this decision there are many reason to understand why the Big 12 is in no hurry to expand.
First up bigger is not always better or more importantly ensures stability. Ironically the Big 12 is more stable with 10 members compared to when the conference contained 12 members. GOR of course had something to do with that as well.
To your point, if the Big 12 is perceived to be able to snatch up Florida State and Clemson, then soon to be 14 member ACC is another classic example of bigger is not always better compared to a current 10 member Big 12.
You could make the same argument if Florida State and Clemson joined the Big 12, the ACC could on the other hand have a Virginia Tech type school jump to top of the ladder and have regular undefeated seasons and the ACC could be in position to get regular BCS final four bids with or without FSU and Clemson.
If we learned anything from pouching, the ACC is classic example of raiding the Big East just to have a couple leftover Big East teams rise up to BCS prominence and overshadow your accomplishment. The Big East in BCS outperformed the ACC after the raid.
College football is not organized well enough to have a separation of the big boys or big four because that would require a good leader in charge or an NFL type commissioner. With that said, I do not think the Big 12 or SEC has interest in destroying another conference just to gain ground. This may have been the case of the first ACC raid on the Big East.
The Big 12 does not have to destroy the ACC to keep well ahead of the ACC in performance. Ditto the SEC.
As long as the Big 12 has flagship schools such as Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 will remain among the top football leagues regardless If that league has 8, 10, 12, or 50 schools.
You could then argue that money may eventually make a difference and the ACC could somehow eventually make more money over the Big 12.
As long as football is driving the bus, the much more football orientated Big 12 is not going to fall behind the ACC. The ACC would have to drop a lot of small private schools and pick up some very strong football schools just to be the same comparison as the Big 12. The ACC can be just as strong at the top with Florida State in the mix, it’s the top to bottom ration of football performing schools that takes a lot of the worries out of the ACC becoming a super football power. At least to the point you would have to kill your competition to prevent this from occurring. This top to bottom ration is what makes bigger not better because with 14 schools there is a lot more room for bottom dwellers to pull down SOS.
If the ACC has learned anything from the Big East, Notre Dame is no savior to a football league. If Notre Dame joined the ACC tomorrow, the conference would most likely make the same revenue. I am basing this on the fact if the Big 12 expands, the revenue would be the same per school of estimated 20 million. Notre Dame has to be one of those schools factored into this scenario if the Big 12 expands back to 12 schools the conference contact would compensate to allow to keep each school at 20 million and would not change revenue shares regardless of which schools were included.
There is no argument here that 10 school conference are a better alignment with round robin football and basketball. All of the 12 and 14 member conferences are having unwieldy issues with schedules and retaining rivalries.
Just wait until the ACC which use to be the premier basketball league in the country with 9 schools and round robin basketball begins to plays regular season with 14 teams schools and includes all schools in the conference tournament. Is it ok to say gag me or yuk or what every four word you want to choose.
Summary: bigger is not necessarily better and if you got premier football schools in your league and your league is stable which means keeping up with Jones (“U of Texas comments the Big 12 is the Jones”), the only worry is how you want your conference to be aligned with no concerns what the ACC eventually ends up in alignment. Or for that matter any of the other BCS leagues.
For the next 13 or 20 years with Texas having 3rs tier rights there is no other league that can close to providing Texas the benefits of leaving. We are talking about a 35 to 40 million dollar share and the Big Ten is not anywhere in this neighborhood which is what it would take to get any interest from Texas. Ditto Pac 12. With Texas in the league the Big 12 will always be considered a top league.
So if Notre Dame is not available why expand beyond 10 schools just for the sake of doing it when 10 schools are a perfect alignment number.