if they take another Texas team (which is highly unlikely imo) it will be either Houston or Rice to solidify the Houston market which is now somewhat divided with the SEC.
It'll be Houston, if they do. Rice is a great school with incredible academics, but, athletically, they don't fit in with the Power 5 conferences. I love Rice to death and have friends that went there, but they don't belong unfortunately. If Houston football shows some definite life in the American in the next couple years and if their basketball program begins to perform a little better, I can definitely see them getting a XII invite. They'll have a new 40,000 seat stadium that could probably be expanded. Rice would then take Houston's place in the American.
Don't disagree with your logic but let me sell you the other side.
Tech and Houston have been battling each other for state funds for years so they are not exactly on good terms. Texas isn't an ally of Houston with either.
Rice is on great terms with Texas, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma has been working more closely with Rice in order to gain their favor for a future AAU spot.
Iowa State and Kansas, beside both also being AAU, won't want to take a school that could end up better than them if they have a choice in the same market.
So only West Virginia, Okie State, and K State would rather take Houston over Rice IMO and the latter two could be persuaded by OU/KU.
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...