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PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:41 pm 
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I think it's Rice's spot to lose if the Big XII gets another Texas school. If they can convince others that their athletic mission works for a P5 conference and won't embarrass a group of peers, they could go anywhere: B12, B1G, or PAC. Totally serious.

There is no other institution that's so close to a win than Rice. Huge, lucrative market, Ivy-like status, and they are a pretty clean ship.

Houston may be at their ceiling. If they get into the Big XII, it's because other Texas schools leave it first. The only thing they can hope to improve there is a new conference with MWC schools, BYU, and other AAC members.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:25 pm 
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I hope y'all are right about Rice! As a Texas native, I'd love to see as many Texas schools in the Power 5 as possible and Rice gives us academic credibility many in the northeast and pacific coast tend to not associate with our state. I do think Houston and Rice should, and hopefully would, be considered if the Power 5 conferences all end up at 16.


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:51 pm 
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BePcr07 wrote:
I hope y'all are right about Rice! As a Texas native, I'd love to see as many Texas schools in the Power 5 as possible and Rice gives us academic credibility many in the northeast and pacific coast tend to not associate with our state. I do think Houston and Rice should, and hopefully would, be considered if the Power 5 conferences all end up at 16.


I think if the Big12 adds a Texas school it'll be 45% chance that it's Rice 45% Houston and 10% SMU (only IF they have Boise/TCU type success).

But I think the odds that the Big 12 adds another Texas school are slim to none, AAC schools (minus HOU/SMU/Tulsa), MWC schools, and BYU are far more likely IMO.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:27 am 
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tkalmus wrote:
But I think the odds that the Big 12 adds another Texas school are slim to none, AAC schools (minus HOU/SMU/Tulsa), MWC schools, and BYU are far more likely IMO.


I agree, except instead of "slim to none," I think it's "not likely to slim." Rice ensures a permanent Big XII tentpole in Houston. I think it's a city the conference definitely needs to keep included routinely with college athletics. Yes, there are more deserving programs that do enhance the conference athletically, but I think Rice still sits relatively high in the queue. If not for a 12-school conference, then more likely if the Big XII chooses to join the rest of the conferences at 14.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:55 am 
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Expectations do have their suprises. TCU and WVU maybe will meet theirs later.


Last edited by sec03 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:52 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Huan wrote:
my inclination is that both Mizzou and aTm are aberration this year due to
1. coming from being contenders in a strong Big 12 to equivalently competitive though more top dominated SEC
2. an off year for many SEC teams like Florida and Georgia, and even LSU


Whether both schools went 11-1 or 6-6, the fact that both went bowling (and this being aTm's second time doing so in two years as a SEC school) meant these schools added to the bowl revenue pot. Still, be it a tip-top SEC or a "down year," going bowling and being in the best FBS conference is something remarkable. It took more time for Arky and USC to do it when they joined something like 20+ years ago, and the SEC was not much back then.

Let's hope both WVU and TCU failing to make bowls this past season isn't a routine. TCU especially, since it didn't do much to push the reach of the conference.


Most years, every conference is going to have a few fb programs below par for them, as Huan indicated given Florida and Georgia as examples. Of course, Florida was the big letdown, and Georgia in pre-season was viewed as a national championship contender. UGA did have more than their usual share of injuries for the year.

I'll take Bishin Cutter's point even further. Some of the beforehand posts imply the SEC is 'over-hyped' and saturated with weak teams. "Over-hype" happens, and that is largely driven by TV marketing and a degree of regionalism where interest is higher. "Over-hype" is certainly not limited to the SEC when one factors in the focus given to Ohio State, Notre Dame, etc. And certainly a couple of schools in the B12 have been the beneficiaries of such.

For the "weak team" suggestion, I'll use the one fb program in the SEC that arguably get's disparaged the most and probably get's the least attention: Mississippi State. Mississippi State has gone to four straight bowls and won three of them. They clobbered Michigan in the 2010 Gator Bowl, and this year defeated CUSA Champion, Rice, in the Liberty Bowl by the largest margin of all bowl games for the season. MSU played in the title series in NCAA baseball this past season and has one of the best baseball facilities in the league and country. MSU is expanding their fb stadium to 61,000+, while during the 80s' and into the early 90s', Scott field held 35,000 or so.

OK, getting bowl games is not so difficult anymore. But a school has to produce at least six wins. And I would not suggest Mississippi State is a power program. They are not. Wins against real power programs, such as LSU and 'Bama, are very infrequent. MSU recruits are basically in-state (competing against Ole Miss and some stronger neighbors) and those the big power programs do not usually aggressively pursue. Mississippi State is not going to sustain themselves at the level of LSU and such, and the best MSU can expect is to have a couple of seasons a decade where they mount a serious challenge and get near or barely reach double digit wins. Being dominated by more powerful schools is relative, circumstantial, and certainly situational. Every major conference is going to have programs that dominate nearly every year, and all have programs that struggle just to be mediocre, but in context, much of the time. Miss. State plays and has the talent and depth level as if they are challenging for the CUSA title. For the SEC, it falls a bit short.

The question for the B12 is not how it compares to the SEC. The questions are, can the B12 make it better, and if so, do they want to? For the immediate future, the conference shows they do not intend to expand, so in their minds they have addressed those questions.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:43 pm 
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Salt Lake Trib blog article with comments from BYU AD who believes that conferences like the Big 12 will eventually expand in order to have a FB Champ game.Gee,I wonder if he has any Big 12 expansion candidates in mind? Link at http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsbyusp ... e.html.csp


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:38 pm 
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freaked4collegefb wrote:
Salt Lake Trib blog article with comments from BYU AD who believes that conferences like the Big 12 will eventually expand in order to have a FB Champ game.Gee,I wonder if he has any Big 12 expansion candidates in mind? Link at http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsbyusp ... e.html.csp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I would've been more okay with BYU in the XII had the XII gone that route from the beginning. However, with West Virginia in the conference, I think the XII is kind of stuck. They can do whatever they want, but do they really want to be in 3 different time zones? I think the XII should go after Cincinnati and someone else (not sure who) for expansion. But they don't need to if they don't want.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:01 pm 
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BePcr07 wrote:
freaked4collegefb wrote:
Salt Lake Trib blog article with comments from BYU AD who believes that conferences like the Big 12 will eventually expand in order to have a FB Champ game.Gee,I wonder if he has any Big 12 expansion candidates in mind? Link at http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsbyusp ... e.html.csp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I would've been more okay with BYU in the XII had the XII gone that route from the beginning. However, with West Virginia in the conference, I think the XII is kind of stuck. They can do whatever they want, but do they really want to be in 3 different time zones? I think the XII should go after Cincinnati and someone else (not sure who) for expansion. But they don't need to if they don't want.


If the Big XII wants to plan on some expansion, they MUST get rid of West Virginia first, and then find at least 3 candidates (Cincinnati being one of the possible). Otherwise, they are destined to be stuck at 10 until another round of conference realignment occurs.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:43 pm 
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Cincy and BYU are still the best programs available to the Big XII, even if they both don't help WVU. And if the Big XII does take them both (and it has to be both), not only does it cripple the "best of the leftovers" conference, it REALLY puts UConn in a bad place.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:27 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Cincy and BYU are still the best programs available to the Big XII, even if they both don't help WVU. And if the Big XII does take them both (and it has to be both), not only does it cripple the "best of the leftovers" conference, it REALLY puts UConn in a bad place.

I'd take UConn over BYU. Going West of Texas Tech with West Virginia still in the conference should be out of the question...unless it was for fb only.

UConn and Cincy are the last of the former AQ teams (Temple doesn't count, and USF is now worse than UCF so they don't either) both have been to a BCS game and have good bball and would be respectable adds.

Still it won't happen because no one wants to be paired with them and WVU. Playing Texas and Oklahoma every year is what every school wants. The old Big12 South (including TCU) will want to keep that division and the Kansas schools won't like getting put in with the Eastern schools.

You need 80% or 8 votes to add a team. Split North/South and KU/KSU/ISU block you. Split zipper separating OU/UT and they plus any Texas school not in UT's division will block you.

The only way I see it working is if the ACC championship game waiver passes and they decide to split into 3 team pods w/ a protected rivalry game for UT/OU and then the only the misplaced Texas school (likely TCU or Tech) would be the only "No" vote, but that's a longshot at best.

I'd bet money that unless a rule like the above is changed, or a requirement for a CCG is somehow added, the Big12 will not be expanding anytime soon (unless they are fb onlys).

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:58 am 
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Then why bother the Big XII being a P5 conference, since the major FBS conferences should be known as the Power-4? If the Big XII keeps staying at 10, it'll be bad for business. Why not having 8 like the old Big 8 times instead of adding West Virginia and TCU from the old Big East and the MW respectively at that time?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:29 am 
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ncaanopaawaa2000 wrote:
Then why bother the Big XII being a P5 conference, since the major FBS conferences should be known as the Power-4? If the Big XII keeps staying at 10, it'll be bad for business. Why not having 8 like the old Big 8 times instead of adding West Virginia and TCU from the old Big East and the MW respectively at that time?

The Big 12 is a power conference. Its often one of the best conferences that will be getting multiple BCS bids and playoff spots. Its not like the Big East who rarely got into any good games after Miami/VPI left.

The Big 12 makes more money per school than any conference right now except the Big Ten, the Big 12 the 3rd most BCS games appearances and 2nd most in NCG appearances, typically has a tougher strength of schedule than all other conferences due to the fact that they play everyone in the conference.

I'm not sure how perception that they must expand and add a CCG is bad for their business when in fact business is pretty good without those things.

If the tide turns on the Big 12 over the next few years we might see something happen, but until then they're standing pat...at least until 2025.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:07 pm 
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When the B12 took WVU (and TCU) the question arises 'why did the B12 decline to offer Louisville and Cincy at the same time'? The B12 had an answer: monetary distributions for each member. Surely, the B12 and WVU knew there would be travel issues regarding WVU being a geographic outpost. WVU was anxious to leave the old BE for a more powerful conference and obviously could have been a bit dismissive about the logistics involved.

The B12 chose to hold at ten and view it as a controllable, cooperative number. That's worked in gaining the consensus for the GoR and tier rights understandings. Former UT AD Deloss Dodds was attributed by certain media sources to have been the force behind the new set-up. Some have suggested his failed courting of his friend, ND AD Swarbrick, resulted in missed opportunities. But citing one school, though the most powerful one in the conference, looks to be oversimplification. If the conference is indeed run by Texas, or the rest allow it to happen, then that is basically dependency. So, the B12 schools that left the conference earlier may have, in part, been seeking to escape such a role as it applied to the B12.

I don't believe the WVU travel problem can be really fixed unless they leave the B12 for a more geographic feasible conference. Adding Cincy may help a little, but it is one school, and even Cincy would be relatively remote from the core of the B12.

The B12 will eventually change one way or the other. It may take years.

The B12, overall, has quality schools, before and after the changes that happened. Those that left earlier did not cite 'poor competition' as a reason for leaving. Most of it was political with unresolved disputes. Then, the 'security' concerns became enhanced.

The marriage of the old Big 8 and a Texan segment of the former SWC did not get consummated well. Remnants of that unsettling dimension may still remain, though much diminished. A little more expansion could help, and that does relate to market size.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:38 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
The B12, overall, has quality schools, before and after the changes that happened. Those that left earlier did not cite 'poor competition' as a reason for leaving. Most of it was political with unresolved disputes. Then, the 'security' concerns became enhanced.

The marriage of the old Big 8 and a Texan segment of the former SWC did not get consummated well. Remnants of that unsettling dimension may still remain, though much diminished. A little more expansion could help, and that does relate to market size.


It was a town with too many people thinking they wore the sheriff's badge. The troublemakers left, though. WVU is kind of a pain, but what leverage do they really have?

I just wish Colorado had left for the PAC back before the B12 commenced. I really don't know what they expected to happen there. Their decision definitely impacted a lot of other programs' fates.


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