Au contrare DawgNDuck - I have no doubt that WVU and Marshall would pack the house, but an ASU-UA game would also be a sell-out - Arkansan

The Ga Tech/UGA game's a pretty good analogy. Back in the late 70's early 80's Pitt/PSU was also a bit like FSU/Miami or UF/Miami. Both teams were usually highly ranked, one had much more fan support but both were a solid tv draw. I think one year they had a 1 vs. 2 showdown, or at least both were in the top 5.

If some of the UF folks with clout hadn't supported developeing a program in Tallahassee, FSU wouldn't even exist. The trade off for them palying us was FSU getting hsafted playing 9 straight years at Florida field (or whatever that hellish place was called then) and getting jobbed by the refs pretty badly. Given, UF was out of our league early on, but we also had some teams that were competitive and one year they flat out robbed us with a downright embarassingly crooked out of bounds call that is memorialized in a Tallahasse paper form the time. If a guy is several feet in bounds and you rule him out, that's bs. Yeah, I'm still bitter...

Anyway we still owe some of the UF folks. Many of them I'm sure they they'd suffer from helping a power program develop in Tallahassee, but the fact is UF only began dominating the SEC after Florida already had two elite football programs and Bowden had cemented FSU as a perennial power. I think it can be beneficial to develop a rival power program in state, because kids want in on that rivalry and the high school football in the state probrably starts developing more talent. But at the same time I think you need to be in a state that produces lots of talent on its home turf. I can see why Bama was threatened by UAB. The state of Alabama produces some rgeat talent for its population, but it can probably only support two power programs at once, and they have to be supplemented by talent out of Memphis, Mississippi, Georgia, texas, and Florida. Losing some depth and a start or two to a team like UAB could knock UA or AU down a peg, though Birmingham is more UA territory, so the threat to Bama, and their response, was much greater.

I think Pennsylvania could afford to have Pitt and PSU both as major powers. If they fight for recruits and the national spotlight, kids will want in on that rivalry. They may lose some recruits to each other, but they'll probably start keeping more kids from the region from heading to Michigan, OSU, Virginia Tech, BC, Syracuse, Notre Dame, etc.

I think the blood is so bad between Marshall and WVU, and the culture warp so severe--this isn't gonna be fair, but at the extremes this is WV hillbilles vs. WV snobs--the WV wil never let it happen. In fairness, it's tough enough to recruit well enough to put WV into the top 10. If Marshall snags some of their recruits, it REALLY hurts.

I think the major football regions, like Texas, Florida, California, and the Steel Mill region in Ohio and Pennsylvania, can probably afford to add a power program or two to the mix. They can even add another if it's a Fresno St./Marshall type program (hey, if Randy Moss doesn't flunk out, something's going on). I don't think any other states can afford to add another succesful program though, unless all the schools in that state raid one of the major high school football talent pools (i.e. Colorado teams raiding Texas).

I think Texas football is heading WAY back up. TCU is gonan continue to roll, Tech is a solid top 20 program at this point, and Francione is gonna make A&M top notch again. That means that Big 10 and of the northern Big 12 schools will have to cast a wider net to improve. Oklahoma will still get it's talent, but Michigan may have to continue raiding eastward. I think Pitt entering the Big 10 might at least make more of the Pennsylvania area talent consider choosing one of the two Pennsylvania schools instead of heading to OSU or Michigan. It'd be nice to see Pitt vs. PSU become the Big 10 equivalent of UF vs. Tennessee (although that game is probably headed down in the dumps in favor of the AU/UGA game).

Assuming it was possible, who would you guys bring into the Big 12 to help balance out the old SWC schools with the Big 8 teams? I'd like to see Colorado St. and TCU brought in. Not sur ewho you could boot out. Baylor would never be forced out, but in terms of football and basketball success it'd be nice to see them replaced (I know they have major pull and greta baseball so it will never happen). Kansas sucks at football but they're dominant in hoops. It would be nice to see Missouri and Iowa St. (this is just me being football-centric) flushed to the Big 10, PSU to the BE, then bring in two schools and realign the Big 12.

I wonder if we will add any teams, unless we lose somebody. if so, I guess that TCU would be a good replacement team, though some in the north might not like the notion of adding another texas team. I'd like being able to play some games in the DFW area, and I really dig Ft. Worth. CSU might not be the worst team to add either. I don't want Ark., even though they bring a lot to the table. I just don't care for that state in general, and don't like that they pretty much were the final nail in the coffin for the SWC. I think they'd really cut into the recruiting base down here.

There is an old adage...."If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"

That pretty well sums up the Big 12. Recent NCAA football champion. Two teams in Final Four. What's wrong?

Whomever you add, someone's going to wind up on the bottom. In football that's Baylor and Kansas at the momemt. Both still average more than 30,000 with relatively bad teams. I don't think that either CSU or TCU can do any better. TCU could aberage 40,000 or better with a winning team in the Big 12 but so can Baylor and Kansas.

I don't see any existing team bolting for the Big 10. Until that happens the question is moot.

Re: Iowa St. & Missouri

I think Iowa St. might be able to improve their lot in the Big 10, but I'm not sure what would happen to their recruiting. The game with Iowa at least could be moved to the end of the year, and they'd probably finish one team higher, on average, in both major sports in the Big 10. Even if the Big 10 was one of the best football conferences last year, there's no way Iowa St. would have played a worse schedule in that conference. They had the most brutal schedule I've ever seen in the second half of the season.

I think Missouri would definitely fare better in the Big 10. They could probably win a conference title in hopps right away, and the recruiting might be slightly better for them in the B-10 (though clealry the Big 12 region has loads of talent). I think Missouri could finally make a breakthrough in football as well, but their recruiting might drop off pretty quickly (not sure hwo many guys they pull outta Texas). Overall it'd be a push for Mizzou. They may pull off some huge upsets in the Big 12 in football next year, and the basketball tam under Snyder is probably ready to challenge Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for supremacy, so they don't have much of a reason to leave, apart from getting hammerred by bad football officiating in the past.

Re: Other B-10 Candidates

If you're right then the Big 10's potential 12th member list just got alot shorter:

ND
Syracuse
Pitt (Paterno at least has actually gone public on this one)

If ND joins any conference I think it'll be the BE. Too much potential for being pushed aorund in the Big 10. They'd have tons more clout in the BE, and a slightly easier schedule.

No idea what's up with Syracuse. I've heard from my Big 10 buddies that Syracuse has gotten feelers from the Big 10 and the ACC (when FSU was making the push to bring in Miami they were one of the names tassed around, along with WVa, Va Tech, and BC). I can't imagine Syracuse heading to the Big 10, but stranger things have happenned. Would probably kill their recruiting.

Out of the three remaining candidates, taht makes Pitt the most desirable acquisition in terms of athletic success in both big sports. And (sorry to beat this to death) they'd be a rival for PSU to keep them happy. Many reasons why this might not happen too, but that's true of any 12th member, unless the Big 10 shocks everyone and pulls in a team like UCF. Something goofy liek that wouldn't surprise me much several years down the road. If the Big 10 wants 12 bad enoudh and no BCS program will sign on, they may look for a really succesful indy. If someone like UCF wins their conference a few times and carries off a couple of big upsets, there's no telling what might happen. Most of the university Presidents would balk at bringing in such a school, but I think the conference will start to look at unconventional choices. One thing's for sure, UCF attendance would go through the roof with all the transplants living in Florida, and the Big 10 wouldn't mind regular visits to Florida for recruits, good weather, and exposure in a bowl town. If UCF were higher on the insitutional food chain, they might not be such a bitter pill to swallow.

I know I'll get flamed for the UCF stuff, so I just wanna say I don't think it will happen, but if the Big 10 get's really frustrated they're gonna do something, and without many options they could make a surprising choice based on benefits to the conference as a whole and the future potential of a 12th member.

It's interesting you only mention UT here and not A&M, Zebbie. If you had mentioned A&M, I would have two words for you: Jackie Sherrill. Yes, Sherrill is a current SEC coach, but prior to coming to the SEC, he coached at TAMU, where he was involved in numerous scandals. Speaking of which, your own Texas Tech has been on probation before too, haven't they? And this occurred when TTU was in the Big 12.

Right now it seems as though the SEC is going through more with 'bama, Georgia and ark. than the Big12 is currently.... That's my main point. Yes, Tech had some problems back in 97-98. We have served our punishment and corrected those problmes. With us, it was more incompetent administration, as many of our athletes had received improper counselling regarding their course work. There were 76 players who were theoretically ineligible over a five year period, or something like that. Most didn't meet satisfactory progress on their degrees as defined by the NCAA. However, most of those players ended up graduating eventually. this year we were second in the Big12 with a 68 percent graduation rate, second only to Baylor.

As for Mizzou, i suppose if Northwestern can win the Big10, then so can Mizzou. Speaking of probation and problems, the Mizzou basketball team is now in some pretty deep trouble...

I am presenting some thoughts that are off the wall and (at least today) don't seem likely as the Big 12 is publically stating a love of Baylor.

If I were the schools in the Big 12, I would drop Baylor ASAP. They are non-competitive and don't look to be any time soon. They had an out of control basketball program and still weren't winning. They don't draw well and are the probably the home of the biggest athletics scandal(s) of my lifetime. Where are the positives? I think the only reason they weren't dumped during the scandal is that it would be too harmful for the Baylor and UT & A&M feared the financial implications of killing Baylor athletics.

(I don't think you could drop them during the scandal because that would be more or less the death penalty for their athletic program at that point---in the state of Texas that wouldn't fly. Now, a little while removed, you could probably do it. Even the most ardent Bears supporter will have to admit Baylor hasn't been competitive. In Texas, if you can't compete, you don't belong.)

I think if Baylor will be forced out the Big 12 better know who they want to replace them and better secure access for Baylor into C-USA to blunt any backlash. The Big 12 better have all of their ducks in a row and be ready to move quickly and decisively before the Baylor alums can regroup.

I think a compelling arguement can be made suggesting that a small private school cannot compete in the Big 12.

I would probably want either CSU, UTEP, or UNT as a replacement.

CSU - My first choice. If the Big 12 has CSU AND colorado, they OWN the Denver market. That cripples the MWC's next TV contract, and in essence kills any hope BYU has of making a mormon dominated BCS conference. Concerning the duplicate market theory, If the Denver only tuely cares about the Big 12, the revenue stream will increase enough to make this worth doing.

The negatives are that while I feel that Baylor could be removed from the Big 12, I don't know if that would be accepted by the legislature for an out of state school. In fact I doubt that could be approved. I don't think Tech alums would rally behind that.

UTEP - I read that UTEP doesn't get state funds for their athletics. If so, that is a bunch of crap. That could be righted by the legislature (Texas, A&M, Tech, and UTEP grads) if a movement to get rid of Baylor started up. They are one of 3 Texas candidates who could fill that spot. UTEP to me would be a pretty good school to add as Baylor's replacement, if that were fixed. UTEP, with the funding issue fixed, offers a lot of positives. El Paso is a pretty big population (if you include the Mexican part). UTEP is a natural parter for Tech. UTEP has always been the toehold that western schools use to gain access to Texas for recruiting. Bringing UTEP in does a lot to seal that leak. UTEP has drawn more fans than any other Texas schools in the past 5 years when they have been competitive, even with dog competition coming in. Presumeably, with government funds, they would be better able to compete in with the public schools in the Big 12 than TCU for example. Although underfunded, of the non- Big 12 schools, they are the most established athletic program at a Texas state university. They project into Mexico which certainly doesn't hurt in south Texas. (Big 12 football on Mexican TV in 2012? Hmmmmm...? Additional revenue streams???)

UNT- current darling of expansionists, is another potential replacement. They are the third largest school in Texas, which should mean they have some clout in the legislature. I suspect they will eventually be in the big 12 for this reason, but I don't think the day of UNT is yet upon us. The school is honestly barely a Div 1 athletic program. They have SMU-type stadium parking (ie. not enough). Their facilities need a major upgrade. Ultimately, I think they are cranking out enough grads that eventually they will get their facilities upgraded and force their way in. In the short term, I can't think of a reason why Texas and A&M would want a school CLOSER to DFW in the Big 12. A simple promise by Texas, Tech, and A&M (as well as UTEP) to vote to bring them into the Big 12 the next time a slot opens could win the support of UNT alums in the legislature. Buying their votes with some additional state funding for their facilities could also pull it off.

Finally, the favorite?

TCU - They are at the point where they can be say "Tech good" in the big 12. If you can play football you have legitimacy in Texas. I could see a scenario where TCU petitions to replace Baylor in the Big 12. I think they might actually have the support to pull that off right now---especially if they make a BCS bowl and don't get blown off the feild. There is still a lot of jealousy over Baylor getting in and SMU, Rice, and TCU "getting the shaft". TCU would become a wildcard and BCS schools don't want TCU bringing another conference to the table. SMU and Rice would not want to lose TCU, but might be agreeable to losing TCU to the Big 12 and (in essence getting Baylor back) vs. losing TCU to the MWC and getting LTech.

(ooooooohh. This is sinister. If the Big 12 were to really hammer on the private schools not cutting it angle, What about admitting TCU in place of Baylor as a "probationary member". Basically let them in based on them improving their facilities and being competitive for 5 years. If they are not competitive at that point the understanding is they get dumped for the best public school available. That kills the MWC effort, probably speed reform at UNT and UTEP, AND probably gets rid of private schools in the big 12 WITH Texas legislative approval in 5 years.)

Arkansas would have to be the favorite then TCU, Colorado State, and then SMU, North Texas.

I say boot Baylor. (Baseball, track, and women's bb are Baylors strengths.) Add Arkansas, with TCU as a back up plan.

FiniteManWorks, I always thought of TCU as a fairly small private school. Am I wrong?

Only TCU or CSU would be a likely replacement for Baylor, if it comes to that. Colorado has desired another MT member, and CSU is already their rival. Certainly UTEP, SMU don't qualify, and it would be a stretch for NT.

BYU was supposed to be in the Big XII but was replaced by Baylor at the last minute when Gov. Ann richards came down hard on the other SWC schools in Texas who were joining.

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Lt. Governor is actually a more powerful position in Texas. Lt. Governor Bob Bullock had both Baylor and Tech ties. Ann Richards had Baylor ties and the Speaker of the House had ties with Tech. Combined the three made it clear Baylor and Tech had to go with them UT and A&M.

To respond to someone's question, TCU has only around 7,000 students. Baylor has around 14,000. And Baylor outdraws in fb and bb the 4 former SWC schools, UNT, UTEP and CSU. Despite its bad fb teams, it still has averaged over 31,000 a game over the last 7 years. It has vastly better programs with the exception of the two revenue sports. In fact, it has vastly better overall programs than KSU or TT. Baylor's not going anywhere. And if they were replaced, Arkansas is the only school that would be considered. And Arkansas isn't going to leave the SEC $ behind. BYU and Utah might be considered except that they wouldn't fit geographically (a southern division team would be needed).

Nope, you are absolutely right. But I do have to list them as a possiblity, and, because of what would be neccessary to get Baylor out, the favorite if a change is made. And no, I don't think small private schools can compete with the UT's of the world on a consistent basis.