Then there will be a period of major realignment where the P5 consolidates to P4, likely a 4 * 18 model, meaning there will be up to 7 openings for move up of deserving G5 schools.
By saying 7 openings, I'm assuming your already including Notre Dame. If so, the 7 I would pick would be (in no particular order):
5 guarantees (for me) --- Cincinnati, Connecticut, BYU, Houston, San Diego St
2 of --- UCF, USF, SMU, UNLV, Boise St, Colorado St, New Mexico, Tulane, Memphis (factors - markets/competition/flagships/academics)
He got seven by assuming its 4*18=72 and includes all the P5 schools (w/ ND)=65.
Personally I don't see that happening, it's far more likely to shrink than expand.
Left out is likely Big 12 and their remaining schools like Baylor, TCU, Iowa St, and Kansas State meanwhile school in the East like UConn, Cincy, and WVU all hit the realignment jackpot and get rescued by the ACC after the 2025 raids by the B1G/SEC. Still there will likely be one spot left in the ACC that may be up for grabs.
P12+Texhoma4; B1G+Kansas+1 ACC school; SEC+2 ACC schools
ACC(14)-3 lost in raids=11+WVU+UConn+Cincy=14+NDfb=15...still 1 shy of the magic number.
Temple is my best guess (growing school, great market also between to huge markets the ACC lost to the B1G in NYC/DC) but it could be Navy fb only (if ND wants them) or a longshot like Memphis (contiguous state, bball, rivalry with LVille/Cincy) or even BYU as fb only.
I don't see the ACC jumping past the Mississippi River for full member schools the leftover Big12 schools as they'd want the map to look somewhat common sense geographically as they Big East and now Big 12 have shown that it's not worth the headache.
Back to the Big 12...assuming it shakes out like I wrote above and the ACC's #16 ends up being Temple...could the Big12 even have a chance to keep their P5 status if they added all remaining fb schools they could muster or do they simply merge with the next best conference for football like the AAC and just add a select school or two to get them over the top?
2027 Big12+best remaining fb schools
West - SDSU, Boise, BYU, CO St (best PAC wannabes)
Texas- TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston (SWC best leftovers)
North- Memphis KSU, ISU, NIU (best B1G wannabes)
South- Tulane, USF, UCF, ECU (best SEC/ACC wannabes)
2027 Big12/AAC merger
Big12- Boise(fb only), BYU (fb only), TCU, Baylor, Tulsa, KSU, ISU, NIU
AAC- SMU, Houston, Tulane, Memphis, USF, UCF, ECU, Navy (fb only)
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...