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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:16 pm 
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If there was ever going to be a formal, 4x16 realignment of major college football I think the logical school to boot would be Wake Forest--they are a small private school in a state that already has 3 other big time football schools.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 1:56 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
If there was ever going to be a formal, 4x16 realignment of major college football I think the logical school to boot would be Wake Forest--they are a small private school in a state that already has 3 other big time football schools.


I agree, if there was a leader directing realignment traffic Wake Forest would get the boot.

But there's not...so we have to work under the assumption the PAC, B1G, SEC, and ACC members are all in the club while some the Big 12 members are likely out.

It sucks that some get cut out while schools like them just happen to be in the right conference/geographic location and make the cut.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:10 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
If there was ever going to be a formal, 4x16 realignment of major college football I think the logical school to boot would be Wake Forest--they are a small private school in a state that already has 3 other big time football schools.

fm, I'll propose a scenario here, and it is just theory. But some factors could be compatible. This is confined to a combo of speculation and tad of having the ear to the ground.
It's no secret the SEC wants into North Carolina. The SEC, with ESPN, continues to focus on Charlotte as a developing hub for SEC interests. Chat on this remains constrained until the ACC-Maryland lawsuits are settled. The GoR in the ACC could allow an exception if the conference voted to do so with a deal on the table. ESPN could broker a deal among themselves, the ACC, and SEC. In such a deal the SEC gets a North Carolina school from the ACC (NC State, for example). That may actually help with complaints within the ACC about having too many NC schools. The ACC gets a desirable fb (and maybe some other sports such as baseball) scheduling agreement with the SEC. The NC school transitioning to the SEC would retain a permanent scheduled rival from the ACC. ESPN rewards the ACC with an enhanced ACC Network deal. Notre Dame, if cooperating, would be worked into deeper ACC fb scheduling, and may include a modest rotation between Notre Dame and some SEC schools. While Notre Dame's NBC contract complicates this, it could be worked into a more comprehensive deal. ESPN gets an improved menu for featured games. The ACC could add a #14, but really aim for #16, inclusive of a commitment from Notre Dame. The SEC would need a #16, but taking a Virginia Tech or Florida State would be asking too much from the ACC. Miami (Fl) could be the #16 for the SEC in a brokered deal. The ACC retains the usual choices for replacements, i. e. Cincinnati and UConn. But, at that point, WVU could be in the mix if the B12 would be willing to relinquish WVU. Even there, some deal may be negotiated. In theory----
ACC: loses NCSU and Miami (Fl); adds Cincinnati, UConn, Notre Dame for full football (with pick & choose) and WVU from the B12 (16 member conference)
SEC: adds NCSU and Miami (Fl) (16 member conference)
B12: loses WVU (which they really may not mind so much), and could be the catalyst for further B12 movement/change.

The Virginia schools and three NC schools, get to remain together in their favored ACC. The ACC affirms their stability.

The B1G would not be a direct player in the SEC/ACC/ESPN brokered deal because of ESPN.
The B1G and PAC12, as coop partners, then cut an agreement to extract their own choices from the B12. It may take two major conferences (PAC12 and the B1G) to further split the B12.
Remnants of the B12 do their replacements from the AAC, MWC, and BYU. Though diminished as a top power conference, the B12 could still be a decent collection of proficient schools, and an improvement over the current AAC/MWC conferences.

Can't say this shall happen this way, but something similar may not be out of the spectrum of possibilities.


Last edited by sec03 on Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:19 pm 
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Dennis wrote:
Count me as one who believes no major P5 realignment will occur until the GoRs expire in 2025 (B12) and 2027 (ACC). The B12 might add two schools in the interim, but likely for football only, and BYU would be one of them.


That might still be enough to get things moving again. The Big XII expanding at all might open up a can of worms regarding any contract extensions and GoR revisions. That the two are synced might create a bit of an issue. I think this is kind of why the conference is staying at ten. Between media partner demands and a lack of perceived quality additions, the subject is not worth considering...yet. The work to get things "stabilized" wouldn't be swift.

Look-in windows might be where the weak-links reside. The Big Ten's contract negotiation, for starters, may put the conference well ahead of all of the conferences, forcing some panic out of those toward the bottom to start catching up to that collective. While the PAC might not needlessly move to 14+ without Texas and OU, maybe B1G-PAC returns, which probably propels both sides to even more money. That might get the SEC thinking. And the ACC better have that network thing resolved. The Big XII will eventually be giving full shares to all ten schools...still no CCG.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:35 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Dennis wrote:
Count me as one who believes no major P5 realignment will occur until the GoRs expire in 2025 (B12) and 2027 (ACC). The B12 might add two schools in the interim, but likely for football only, and BYU would be one of them.


That might still be enough to get things moving again. The Big XII expanding at all might open up a can of worms regarding any contract extensions and GoR revisions. That the two are synced might create a bit of an issue. I think this is kind of why the conference is staying at ten. Between media partner demands and a lack of perceived quality additions, the subject is not worth considering...yet. The work to get things "stabilized" wouldn't be swift.

Look-in windows might be where the weak-links reside. The Big Ten's contract negotiation, for starters, may put the conference well ahead of all of the conferences, forcing some panic out of those toward the bottom to start catching up to that collective. While the PAC might not needlessly move to 14+ without Texas and OU, maybe B1G-PAC returns, which probably propels both sides to even more money. That might get the SEC thinking. And the ACC better have that network thing resolved. The Big XII will eventually be giving full shares to all ten schools...still no CCG.


The B1G/PAC thing was to establish a scheduling agreement between the 2 along with a bowl, basketball challenge, TV rights, and possibily the CIC.

The PAC was supposed to negotiated a short term TV deal for 2-3years in order to merge their rights with that of the B1G.

The PAC's TV is locked up, and the B1G expanded w/o them, and the bowl deals are already done.

However I do think that eventually the major conferences will once again decide to pool their resources on 1st/2nd tier rights once the realignment is complete and the new playoff/bowls are locked down.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:29 pm 
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sec03 wrote:
[The B1G and PAC12, as coop partners, then cut an agreement to extract their own choices from the B12. It may take two major conferences (PAC12 and the B1G) to further split the B12.

Not certain on this, but I read somewhere it would take 8 Big12 schools of the ten, to nullify the GoR agreement.
WVU to go east to the ACC or the SEC would be one.
Four Big12 teams to go to the PAC12 would be then be five.
Two Big12 teams to go to the BIG would make seven.
If all the above was promised, who would take #eight?
If it was the SEC to take one (or one additional), they would want a quality school that would probably conflict the choices.

Thus, assuming.......
Kansas would be a B1G selection
At least Texas w/TTU would be in the PAC12 camp to start.
The PAC12 would want OU, as may the B1G (though not AAU), could be even a SEC consideration, or some settling involving OSU.
Would OU and OSU agree to separate? Same question with Kansas and KSU. Maybe both would if each were promised placement among the PAC12/BIG/SEC.
Would the B1G cave and accept Iowa State with Kansas?
Would the B1G limit themselves to two more Midwest schools and give up on adding more from the east?

If the PAC took the UT/TTU/OU/OSU,
and the B1G took Kansas and Iowa State,
the ACC is taking WVU,
then the SEC takes Kansas State (odd), but maybe Missouri would like it or KU and KSU switch off so the MU-KU thing can happen again in conference.
BU and TCU are the excluded.

The PAC12 makes out in this deal; tough sell with the rest. It does eliminate a power conference. The drive for just four super-conferences @ 16 members each would have to be immense. Would three other power conferences want to cooperate and give the PAC12(16) that much strength and territory, probably exceeding near all others? It could happen in some parts in due time, but no package agreement involving more than one conference at a time. It's hard to see any circumstances whereby that level of cooperation and acceptance with multi-conferences and the schools involved, with conflicting preferences and agendas, could develop. But thoughts on out-of-the-box strategies can offer intrigue.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:52 pm 
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louisvillecard01 wrote:
sec03 wrote:
[The B1G and PAC12, as coop partners, then cut an agreement to extract their own choices from the B12. It may take two major conferences (PAC12 and the B1G) to further split the B12.

Not certain on this, but I read somewhere it would take 8 Big12 schools of the ten, to nullify the GoR agreement.
WVU to go east to the ACC or the SEC would be one.
Four Big12 teams to go to the PAC12 would be then be five.
Two Big12 teams to go to the BIG would make seven.
If all the above was promised, who would take #eight?
If it was the SEC to take one (or one additional), they would want a quality school that would probably conflict the choices.

Thus, assuming.......
Kansas would be a B1G selection
At least Texas w/TTU would be in the PAC12 camp to start.
The PAC12 would want OU, as may the B1G (though not AAU), could be even a SEC consideration, or some settling involving OSU.
Would OU and OSU agree to separate? Same question with Kansas and KSU. Maybe both would if each were promised placement among the PAC12/BIG/SEC.
Would the B1G cave and accept Iowa State with Kansas?
Would the B1G limit themselves to two more Midwest schools and give up on adding more from the east?

If the PAC took the UT/TTU/OU/OSU,
and the B1G took Kansas and Iowa State,
the ACC is taking WVU,
then the SEC takes Kansas State (odd), but maybe Missouri would like it or KU and KSU switch off so the MU-KU thing can happen again in conference.
BU and TCU are the excluded.

The PAC12 makes out in this deal; tough sell with the rest. It does eliminate a power conference. The drive for just four super-conferences @ 16 members each would have to be immense. Would three other power conferences want to cooperate and give the PAC12(16) that much strength and territory, probably exceeding near all others? It could happen in some parts in due time, but no package agreement involving more than one conference at a time. It's hard to see any circumstances whereby that level of cooperation and acceptance with multi-conferences and the schools involved, with conflicting preferences and agendas, could develop. But thoughts on out-of-the-box strategies can offer intrigue.

If you dig back in this thread someone (sry can't remember who) posted the conference bylaws and the GOR. I read both documents in their entirety. The GOR stated that dissolution is a way to end the GOR. And the bylaws state that 75% is required for dissolution.

So 8 if they don't expand or 9 if they expand to 12.

The most likely would be if they expand with UConn and Cincy and then the PAC12 takes the Texhoma4 and the Kansas duo (PAC18) while the ACC takes WVU, UConn, and Cincy (17/18 w/ND) TCU, ISU, and Baylor are left out in the cold.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:49 pm 
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tkalmus wrote:
If you dig back in this thread someone (sry can't remember who) posted the conference bylaws and the GOR. I read both documents in their entirety. The GOR stated that dissolution is a way to end the GOR. And the bylaws state that 75% is required for dissolution.

So 8 if they don't expand or 9 if they expand to 12.

The most likely would be if they expand with UConn and Cincy and then the PAC12 takes the Texhoma4 and the Kansas duo (PAC18) while the ACC takes WVU, UConn, and Cincy (17/18 w/ND) TCU, ISU, and Baylor are left out in the cold.


That's an interesting thought. Two thoughts cross my mind...

#1: Iowa St, Baylor, and TCU definitely want the XII to stay together because they are the bottom 3 when it comes to finding a home in another power conference. I would bet they would anticipate this tactic coming and collude to vote against disbanding the XII (at least until the GoR runs out) or bringing in other schools. I'm not sure what the voting rules are on bringing other schools into the conference - I would suspect the same. If, however, they weren't able to keep others out of the conference and the plan was to disband the XII, those 3 schools would have reason to sue for fraud. I do think it would take a conspiracy between a whole lot of bodies to make it all work: 7 members of the current XII, the PAC, the ACC, Cincinnati, and Connecticut. Maybe not impossible but not sure if plausible.

#2L I wonder if the SEC or B1G would consider this a time to move to 18. If that were the case, I could see them raiding the ACC. If the ACC has the same 75% rule the XII has, it would take 12 members to leave (counting 15 members with Notre Dame) or 13 (counting Notre Dame, Connecticut, and Cincinnati.) I could see a couple going to the SEC and a couple going to the B1G, but that's it. Maybe the rest would form a new conference with the XII rejects and a couple American schools.

Maybe...

PAC adds - Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Kansas St (18)
SEC adds - North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, Florida St, West Virginia (18)
B1G adds - North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Boston College (18)
Metro Conference - Miami FL, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Baylor, TCU, Iowa St (12) + Houston, Tulane, Memphis, UCF, East Carolina, USF(18)
Not sure where Notre Dame would go
As far as the other American schools - Tulsa and SMU to Mt West; Navy to independent; Temple to MAC or CUSA


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:37 am 
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Article out of Columbus in reaction to recent Big 12 Commish comments regarding possibility of dire future of college athletics at http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/content ... -turf.html


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:51 pm 
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The ugly truth is that the eagerness and willingness of new programs entering FBS resulted in a major tantrum by the P5'ers because the structure allowed these "lessers" to coexist with programs who feel like the sacrosanct foundation of the whole structure.

The whole "let it burn" attitude of these leaders these days...and it's just rotten at the collegiate level. The courts are decidedly suggesting the schools have it wrong. Even in the face of it, schools and conferences dare to contest it and continue to portray events in a way where "the pesky kids" are all to blame. Or women, as Title IX is still just a whipping boy.

...and they must be, you know? Because it's so honorable for college and conference leaders having conversations with network and cable companies about stealing money from anyone who has cable television. Like my living in PA means the Big Ten is owed money from me because Penn State is a member of a conference with a really terrible network and I own a television.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:14 pm 
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I think one scenario that would radically alter the face of college football would be for the Pac 12, Big Ten, and SEC announcing that the three conferences were going to form an alliance and negotiate their television packages collectively. This would instantly destabilize the ACC and Big 12 and allow all 3 conferences to immediately extract whomever they want. The question is would those 3 conferences be able to agree to terms?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:09 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
I think one scenario that would radically alter the face of college football would be for the Pac 12, Big Ten, and SEC announcing that the three conferences were going to form an alliance and negotiate their television packages collectively. This would instantly destabilize the ACC and Big 12 and allow all 3 conferences to immediately extract whomever they want. The question is would those 3 conferences be able to agree to terms?

If the Pac 12 and Big Ten can not agree on a scheduling alliance for football between the old Rose bowl participants, there is no way either leagues can pursued the SEC into going along on any type of a TV revenue alliance.

If the SEC wanted to destabilize the ACC, the conference will not need any help from the Big Ten or Pac 12 and can just move to snatch up Florida State and Clemson which will accomplished the same task with out the need for messy alliance with conferences the SEC historically does not get along with.

The SEC is much more likely to align with the Big 12 on future issues concerning football and the Sugar bowl is already in place and owned by both conferences which is something the Big Ten and Pac 12 don't have total ownership of the Rose bowl and likewise can not agree on any type of alliances between each including simple schedule alliances.

I do not post much on this board any longer especially after the GOR were signed by most of the power leagues, simply because most of the post on this board today would have been suggestions to move to the dream thread a couple years back.

Maybe in the next decade we can resume talking about conference mergers when the current GOR start to expire, otherwise, any suggestion to break up any conference's GOR should be moved the dream thread if one still exist on this site.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:35 pm 
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lash wrote:
If the Pac 12 and Big Ten can not agree on a scheduling alliance for football between the old Rose bowl participants, there is no way either leagues can pursued the SEC into going along on any type of a TV revenue alliance.

If the SEC wanted to destabilize the ACC, the conference will not need any help from the Big Ten or Pac 12 and can just move to snatch up Florida State and Clemson which will accomplished the same task with out the need for messy alliance with conferences the SEC historically does not get along with.


I agree somewhat. Even if the B1G and PAC can't figure it out (which is a shame, because, really, this was about one big school, USC, and a follower, Stanford, poo-poo'ing on something 22 out of 24 schools wanted), there's no way the institutional association would extend to the SEC.

As for the SEC taking what it wants from the ACC, while I agree...the schools have to actually want to go. I think FSU and Clemson had some administrative barriers that stopped the possibility of that happening. It may be "a matter of time," but how long is that? How long did it take Nebraska to join the Big Ten?

Quote:
Maybe in the next decade we can resume talking about conference mergers when the current GOR start to expire, otherwise, any suggestion to break up any conference's GOR should be moved the dream thread if one still exist on this site.


Once one of these GoR-clad conferences can survive a look-in window, I might agree. Sorry, but I think that's where the nukes are.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:38 pm 
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fighting muskie wrote:
I think one scenario that would radically alter the face of college football would be for the Pac 12, Big Ten, and SEC announcing that the three conferences were going to form an alliance and negotiate their television packages collectively. This would instantly destabilize the ACC and Big 12 and allow all 3 conferences to immediately extract whomever they want. The question is would those 3 conferences be able to agree to terms?


That kind of thing existed in the '80s and '90s as the College Football Association, then the Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC (and Notre Dame & Big East) made their own media deals and it fell apart. I could see the Big Ten and Pac-12 potentially working together on a media deal, but that's not very likely. And the SEC is even less likely to work with another conference because they likely wouldn't make as much per school if they did.

Those three could work together privately and hand-pick who want out of the ACC and Big 12. If they each want to get 16 I could see:

Pac-12 adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
SEC adds NC State, Virginia Tech
Big Ten adds Virginia, Kansas

The SEC wants new markets and UNC and Duke aren't leaving the ACC unless major events make the ACC far less valuable/competitive as the SEC/Big Ten/Pac-12. With Virginia Tech gone, Virginia would rather join the Big Ten than the SEC and has more of a reason to leave, while the Big Ten has previously considered Kansas and they are an AAU member with at least slight access to Texas.

If they each want 18:

Pac-12 adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor
SEC adds NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke
Big Ten adds Virginia, Kansas, Georgia Tech, Syracuse

The options are far more limited if going to 18. Whether Kansas and Kansas State would go to different conferences is questionable but more likely than Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. I could see Pac-12 or Big Ten wanting the Kansas pair just to get KU. Kansas State would add more to a Pac-18 than Iowa State, and Baylor was considered in 2010 for the Pac-16. UNC and Duke would be the best options left for the SEC, giving them the Triangle rivalries and 2 more national fan bases. I don't see UNC and Duke separating, and I know UNC would rather be in the SEC than Big Ten (or at least their fans feel that way). Big Ten would get a southern school with mutual interest with Georgia Tech, and Syracuse is the best option left and would give them more of NYC market.

Florida State and Clemson seem missing in this, but the SEC has said they're not interested in doubling up in markets, and the Big Ten wouldn't want them. I think FSU, Clemson and Miami will be the core of the ACC if most Carolina/Virginia schools leave.

Ultimately whatever happens the ACC will survive simply because of numbers. Cincy, UConn, Temple, West Virginia, East Carolina and so on can be quality additions if 4-6 members leave. I do think the Big 12 will dissolve around 2025-27. The Big 12 GOR ends in '25, ACC GOR ends in '27, the last playoff contracted as of right now will be in '25-'26, SEC and Pac-12 negotiate new media contracts for '24 and Big Ten likely will around then too. I think West Virginia will go to the ACC then as if the above played out like that they would have more friends willing to get them in. However, I don't see how the ACC would have any interest in any other Big 12 schools that would get left behind. I can see TCU, Baylor, ISU and even KSU having to go to the American, since by themselves they couldn't get anyone to leave a stable conference for a shaky conference with not much better competition (Montana/MSU with the WAC for example). Baylor is clearly doing work to show they deserve a spot in a future Power 4, but anyone who's still a question mark in the Big 12 or elsewhere on that likely won't make it.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:00 pm 
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Syracuse is not getting an invite to the B10.


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