Looking at this new autonomy mechanism granted to the major conferences, I tend to believe the B12 is here to stay, largely as it is now. The term 'Power 5' if not branded from Madison Avenue, it looks as if the advertising and corporate enterprises have adapted the slogan. Would they seek to transition that to the 'Power 4'? That's doubtful, re-branding to a lower figure could be a tougher sales job.
So, 64 conference members plus Notre Dame are the tidy group? They may see adding schools to that select group would mean less revenue for the totality of distributions among themselves. And, does it mean that any re-alignment would be from among themselves, not any outsiders from the Group of 5; now almost formally regulated to be second class?
The Power 5's common adversary had been the collection of non-P5 FBS schools, FCS schools, lower division fb schools, and other schools without fb programs, all part of NCAA decision-making. They are viewed as impediments for the P-5 to make even more money. Those receiving less, will be expected to relinquish more in terms of revenue and influence.
The Power 5 will have first grabs at recruits. A recruit on the fence as to whether he wants to go to Auburn or Florida A&M will have even more distinct criteria to it.
Reducing governance and structural ties to the non-power 5 is just the first step. More intermediary acts shall follow. The biggest drama is yet to come. These power 5 conferences are going to turn on each other in a much bigger way. Fights won't be just about raiding a school from another within the group, but conflict in terms of self-governing rules, increasing player compensations, equity within, and playoff and bowl placements. Network battles will be a part of it.
The B12 could be comparatively less stronger in the political plays simply because of having a fewer number of schools. On the other hand, they simply align with one or more other power conferences to protect their interests as internal power 5 disputes arise. At some point, it will be time to get the popcorn.
sec03, I have been in agreement the Power 5 conference are here to stay for a while now and the autonomy NCAA vote was just one of the final locks to ensure my thoughts on this subject continue to be on target for the Power five leagues.
Several factors were contributing to the stability of the major five conferences which lead to the ability to push for the NCAA Autonomy vote. The GORs were significant and most believe they are to keep the big boys in the conference such as Texas or a Florida State. I see the GOR were more beneficial to keeping stability within the power 5 conferences for the so called non big boys and ensure the majority of the members were united and wanted to be in that conference. The GORs were the indication the big boys of the conference were finally committed to the conference and wanted to ensure no issues with the other schools continue to fracture and look for an out such as Nebraska which left the Big 12 for the Big Ten.
The other factor I believe in strongly is 14 is the absolute maximum a conference can expand and be functional. It is the primary reason the Big 12 had naming rights to both the Big 12 and the Big 14 and not a Big 16 or Big 20 etc. There was a lot of research that went into these studies when the Big 12 formed. The Big Ten spent almost a year in determining potential candidates for expansion and stopped at 14. There was no reason the conference had to stop at 14 other than common sense. We can discuss the pods in 16 type member formats and in the end it just more divisions and breaking unity which is why conferences formed in the first place to improve rivalries and regional interest.
With this autonomy vote, the future is clear to expand the playoff from 4 to 8 or possibly more and no conference wants to risk multiple conference playoff games before making the college playoff. Creating pods do not support this makeup and breaking into two eight team division is basically splitting into two conferences.
While it may be coincidental, the ACC and Maryland law suite just settled the day after the autonomy vote, I believe there go hand in hand.
Like or not these five power conferences are in bed together and any instability in any impacts the entire group of 65 schools.
I just do not see any movement between each group unless the five conferences worked together to align teams or schools such as the NFL moved teams between divisions.
There is just too much money involved in the future to create any instability in these group of five power conferences.
I agree with the sentiment.
The P5 are here and will play nice until they figure out this new system.
BUT (<<<<<<big but) if the Big 12 can't be competitive with the other 4 conferences either on the field or in the boardroom, then I don't see as being here to stay...
People are already talking about how easy OU and or Baylor's schedule are ("they basically just play each other and Texas and they get in the Playoff"). Let that happen for a year or two and then the other 4 force (this won't happen right away) them to add 2 (Cincy and UConn) to get a championship game. How's the TV money going to look when it's watered down by 2 more teams that dilute not only the $payout but also the strength of the fb league? Texas and OU at least will not hang around.
After that (and assuming it's just those 2 (which is highly unlikely IMO) they add Houston and BYU will this conference of 12 be equal to everyone else's 14 or 16?
Baylor, Houston, TXTech, TCU, OKSU, BYU, KSU, KU, ISU, Cincy, WVU, UConn.
Also the only expanding market in the Big 12 is Texas. When contracts are renegotiated in 2025, does anyone think that WV, IA, KA, or OK are going to grow as fast as the new footprints of the other Power4? Assuming stipends, trusts, and addition costs are lying in wait just around the corner, money is going to matter even more than it did before. Why would a dominate school, in a dominate region like Texas, or a national brand like Oklahoma, stay in the Big12 and risk falling further behind even a little when compared to the other P4?
For Texas the Big12-2-2+2 was a short term fix to weigh their options. If Texas and OU want to join the PAC12, SEC or B1G they aren't going to be turned down (assuming the LHN isn't an issue).
The term "Power 5" means nothing. It's simply a way to designate who get the "BCS" bids. If UT/OU abandon ship do we expect the bowls to resign with the B12? The ACC had to pull a deal with the devil (ND) and the SEC/B1G to find a spot this time around. Does anyone really think that the Sugar Bowl or the SEC will want to continue the relationship with the Big12 when it's top dog is Baylor, K State or BYU and some AACers like Houston? Not a chance, that will shift to the B1G #2 and a 1v1 game will be set up with the ACC.
Without a BCS bowl tie in the Big12 becomes the AAC.
Now that being said...we don't know what could happen in the NCAA governing...
Could their vote be taken away by the other four? Or could/would the full DI need to make that change? If the Power 4 want the Big12 out, they simply have to play their trump card again and threaten to take their ball and start their own basketball tournament. I think 5 is a good number for governing and establishing a majority or super majority vote so I would keep the 5th vote but possibly have it represent all the Gang of 5+Big12.
Sorry, went off on a tangent there, but basically I wouldn't count on the status quo past 2025. These decisions aren't going to stop that train, especially if the Big12 ends up being one of the lesser conferences in fb over the next decade (i.e. No championships, fewer playoff bids, less media attention, and less ranked v ranked match ups)(the last two are almost guaranteed as it's been mathematically proven that round robin play increases losses and produces lower average rankings which is one of the reasons the SEC/Big12 were so successful over the P12/B1G, plus when you add in the lack of population in nonTexas Big12 the media will always choose a SEC, West or East coast team to highlight).
Fan of the Big 12 Conference, the Mountain West Conference and...