Perhaps, SEC. But from the basic research I've done, it just seems like if Utah were the only option (goto 11), that the revenue just doesn't seem to be there.
What we know...
1) Increase revenue for the current 10 schools (via a new Tv contract)
2) see 1
3) see 1
4) If expanding will increase the revenue for each of the existing 10 Pac-10 schools, then the presidents would consider it
5) Pac-10 expansion is not likely if the current 10 schools would not benefit by expanding.
So it's like this in my eyes:
* Pac-10 sets a number that they want to see for the new TV contract. Let's say it's going from $58 to $100 million = $10 per P10 school.
* Recos by ESPN/Fox/NBC-Comcast/new P10 Network suggest that by expanding with Schools A & B, that the contract coudl go from $100 million to $115 million.
* Pac-10 then says, "alright, $100/10=$10 each, $115/12=$9.5 million...Pac-10 says no thanks.
* If 2 team expanded conference could get $120/12=$10 each, maybe they do it
* If 1 team expanded conference (Utah) was good for $115, and would lower the per school revenue, the Pac-10 would likely pass, you think?
So it comes down to what the Pac-10 AS-IS can get on their own during the negotiations. And if new schools increased that payout, it makes sense.
We just need to be sure to look at the big picture. Someone can throw around numbers like $100 for the Pac-10 and we might assume that is for a 12 team scenario. It very might well be that the $100 number (or whatever hypothetical number) would also exist for the current 10 teams WITHOUT expansion. But that would be no fun for us