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PostPosted: Thu Sep 11, 2014 3:52 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
Huan wrote:
Football content value? I can see BYU for this
But how does Cincinnati add football content value in itself?


Since 2000, the Bearcats have five football conference championships under three different coaches, and eleven bowl appearances under five different coaches. And a combined 111-66 record in that time, winning roughly 63% of their games. They may not take over the Big XII conference, but what those metrics indicate that Cincinnati knows how to run its football program, scout talented coaches, win conferences, or at least represent them for monies at these bowls.

It's the consistency thing. Cincy's got it. I don't know if the same can be said about UCF, and definitely can't be said of Tulane, Rice, or some of the other programs out there.

BYU's 114-63 (winning 64% of their games), got ten bowl trips under their belt, and had three conference championships to their name over the same span.

They both have what it takes to compete in that conference and contribute to its overall value and bowl affiliations.



I hear you
but that's five years of being on the radar, which isn't really that long
while certainly better than UCF, Tulane and Rice, these have other attributes going for them

when you get down to it, the Big XII doesn't really need a competitive team as a reason to go to 12, it needs reasons why the current 10 would gain in going to twelve
status as an academic conference? Tulane and Rice are AAU
recruiting ground? UCF is in Florida, Tulane is in Louisianna, Cincinnatti is in Ohio (which imho is less than Florida or Louisiana)
national prominence enough to add value to the current TV contract? maybe BYU

and to be seen as a peer of the current 10?
"academic standing"? Tulane and Rice
money/wealth to develop the athletic program/compete? Tulane and Rice


when the university presidents look for members, what do they want and what will they stand to gain, i think is the question more so than who is good on the field, when the big xii is already fairly competitive as is.
so i see these three programs, BYU, Rice, and Tulane, as front runners


the main edge Cincinnatti has is proximity to WVU
but this matters only to WVU


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:54 am 
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tkalmus wrote:
The Big 12 is already getting paid as if they have 12 members and a CCG.

Adding 2 members won't be done unless they change the rules and require them to play a CCG which I don't think will ever pass.

tkalmus, your comment referring to the Big 12 as getting paid for 12 members is not valid. The Big 12 did not finalize the TV contract until the new Commissioner Bowlsby took over the job and that included the current 10 members of the Big 12. One of Bowlsby's claims of major accomplishments after becoming the Big 12 Commissioner were to finalize and get the TV contract approved for the current 10 schools along with the signing of the GOR.

With that said, I do not see the Big 12 expanding to 12 schools regardless if the TV contract could somehow be renegotiated by ESPN and FOX.

I believe the rule requiring a minimum of 12 schools will shortly be dropped by the NCAA and the Big 12 fully understands this position.

Based on the projected rule change the Big 12 will most likely resume a championship game if and when the conference sees a benefit in getting teams into the four team playoff by having a championship game or better stated the lack of a championship game. It may take a couple of years to determine which is a better method of getting a team or multiple teams into a playoff.

It would appear to me the Big 12 prefers the stability and unity of having 10 members which is very important to a conference that had so many issues in past with divisions. This to me is the primary reason the Big 12 has no plans to expand.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:14 am 
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Huan wrote:
and to be seen as a peer of the current 10?
"academic standing"? Tulane and Rice
money/wealth to develop the athletic program/compete? Tulane and Rice


I don't disagree. I felt Tulane and Rice are probably among the most likely upwardly mobile programs because of the academics and location. I've always liked these two as candidates for various conferences, but I'm not sure either of them actually help the Big XII out athletically (well, Rice baseball would, but beyond that, it's not much else), and would either of them help the conference out in bowl negotiations or other agreements? When your conference is loaded with historic bottom-dwellers like Kansas and Iowa State, and some others who aren't historically consistent, either, I'm not sure both Tulane and Rice would serve the conference well. And with a conference that has as small a footprint as the Big XII has, I'm not entirely sure what another Texas school would do for the conference, or even going into a fairly small Louisiana, even if the state is loaded in terms of football recruitment. Maybe the benefit of adding yet another Texas program could be sharing the state of Texas with all of the Big XII, maybe placing Rice, Baylor, or TCU up in the north or some other configuration.

I think Rice will be moving somewhere. I think they're miserable in CUSA because of what that conference turned into. I doubt the AAC is going to nab them when Houston's finally in front of them (payback is a *****), but outside of the majors, it kind of only leaves the MAC and MWC, which don't seem likely.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:03 pm 
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rice and tulane adds academic credential
and they don't have to be bowl competitive it they allows other Big XII team to be bowl competitive
lets face it, there will be a separation of the P5 from the G5 and cross play games maybe a thing of the past
for instance, would Tech rather play Tulane or Central Arkansas?
would Baylor rather play Rice or Missouri State?

regarding geography
i would rate florida ahead of Louisianna ahead of Utah and ahead of Ohio
FL: this may be a good time to enter the market to get shares given FSU is up but both UF and Miami being down
LA: lots of football talents and gets the Big XII into SEC territory
UT: opens up the mountain west, and i would rate BYU presence in Utah higher than the Utes
OH: the state is dominated by OSU and is losing population

i rate BYU as #11
and Tulane & Rice as #13 and #14 (Big XIV rights is already owned by the Big XII)
#12? a FL school


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:05 pm 
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I rate Rice(xSWC) and Tulane as not under consideration by the B12 poor attendance and lack of performance.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:39 pm 
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ctx48c wrote:
I rate Rice(xSWC) and Tulane as not under consideration by the B12 poor attendance and lack of performance.


Maybe so. But remember that Rice won the C-USA title game last season. If the Owls keep winning games (including some quality ones vs. P5 schools) season-in and season-out in a consistent basis, then the Big XII might re-think this over.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:38 am 
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ctx48c wrote:
I rate Rice(xSWC) and Tulane as not under consideration by the B12 poor attendance and lack of performance.


this assumes that what the Big XII is looking for is a program that is competitive on the football field
which I am not sure holds true

even at 10 teams, the Big XII is rated as a top 3 conference, ahead of the ACC and the B1G
will the conference makes more money because it is a top 2 conference? unlikely as this assume that the additional teams will allow the conference to renegotiate its TV contract and or its bowl affiliation.
besides imo only available team that matches the Big XII in competitiveness is BYU

so if the Big XII go to 12 it is because of other circumstances such as need for a conference championship, or because the P5 separates from the G5 and the other P5 conferences all at 14, requires the Big XII do the same so that revenue sharing is equal per program
so the Big XII needs 2-4 teams.
given the limited availability of competitive national brands available, the Big XII will look for
1. academic peers: here AAU and National universities matter and not regional programs
2. enhancement of recruiting ground and expanded tv markets:
~ Florida will be considered, growing population with lots of football recruits
~ Louisiana is a strong football recruiting state & new orleans is a good market for a visiting Big XII team,
~ Ohio opens the midwest (but given WVU location, there is already a midwest presence), is a good football recruitment site, but has been bleeding population, and
~ Utah opens up the mountain west, a growing population, (and BYU is the premiere football brand in Utah, not the Utes)
3. If a program meets the above, it just have to be reasonably competitive, not a national football brand/powerhouse. It will be better for OU/UT to pad their record by beating Rice than a G5 program or a FCS program (which will no longer be on the schedule for many of the P5 programs, and certainly gone after the P5 separates). Getting a conference win will be better for the conference leaders than a non conference win against a patsy when it comes to national standing and consideration for the playoff.

so the perennial Big XII (XIV) would have
top tier: OU and UT
the middle pack: Baylor, BYU, KState, OSU, TCU, TTU, WVU
bottom: KU, ISU, (Rice, Tulane)


once one accepts the reality is that other than BYU there is nothing else that is of the same national standing, negating competitiveness as a value to be considered for Big XII expansion team #12-14
you'll have to ask if not football competitiveness, what will be significant factors other than academic peer staring and market/recruitment ground?
in fact, being able to make a good show but still losing to the current conference leader might be a good thing in a candidate
and who knows, with the infusion of P5 money, these programs could become the next Baylor
like the B1G making long term investment with Rutgers and Maryland, the Big XII (in addition to BYU) could invest in Tulane, Rice, and a FL school


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:24 am 
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I think the Big XII would benefit from adding Cincinnati and BYU at any point between now and 2025. Both are good schools and bring quality athletics in the only two sports that matter (football, basketball). I have a feeling that BYU would drop the "no Sunday play" to join the Big 12. But if not, you could just ensure that BYU never has to play on Sundays. Or go a different route and say that the Big 12 (as a whole) will no longer play on Sundays.

There should even be a North and South like the good old days...

North : KU, KSU, ISU, WVU, UC, BYU
South : UT, TT, BU, TCU, OU, OSU

Anything short of this between now and 2025 and the Big 12 won't be a power conference in 2026. There are only two remaining Go5's resembling high-level consistency in the money sports (Utah, Louisville and TCU are already gone) and those are the two mentioned here. Due to the expiration date of the ACC's Grant of Rights (2027) the Big 12 couldn't poach a P5 school until 2027. It's this (UC, BYU) or dissolve. BYU has a Nati in Football ('84) and UC has two in hoops ('60, '61). Rice, Central Florida and Tulane are light years from accomplishing anything like this. Connecticut (with their four very recent hoops titles) is the only realistic possibility beyond these two. With a new stadium, I suppose a final long shot case could be made for Colorado State on the economy of their state and their athletic potential.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:41 am 
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BYU is not giving up no Sunday games is only one of BYU terms that are not changing.

If the the B12 wants to expand it needs more tv money.The addition of Rice or Tulane is not doing that.

If the B12 wants more tv money it will go to to UCF or USF.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:38 pm 
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I remember reading something some time back that suggested LaTech as an outside runner. I thought that if the Big XII really went there and indulged them in some hypothetical conversations, it made it seem going into the Gulf was a big deal. Apparently Tulane did have some chats, as did SMU, but I suspect they were convos about what big conferences would find appealing about their respective programs. I'm sure Tech's not too thrilled the CUSA it finally landed into turned into the Sun Belt it had evaded. I wouldn't be surprised if Tech wasn't sending out feelers to see what else they could do. It was definitely out there to hear/read, though.

For BYU, I'd chuckle if they couldn't get it done with a major conference like the Big XII because of those ollies and the no-Sunday thing. Like, BYU was so hardline about it for something like baseball, which would be about the biggest and dumbest mistake the Cougs could make with those guys.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:41 pm 
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ctx48c wrote:
If the B12 wants more tv money it will go to to UCF or USF.


And there is saturation there. Top Florida recruits get multiple offers from schools inside and outside the state. The B12 taking one or both shall have B12 schools playing there, but the value of it has limitations. UCF and USF have got presence in two big metro markets, but neither dominate state-wide interest; and aside from UCF's BCS bowl win last season, don't offer a whole lot in cultivating very significant national attention. Of course getting placed in a major conference offers the opportunity to further excel, but that would apply to most schools given the commitments and accessible resources.
--------------------
It would be interesting to see the current ratings for the LHN. If Texas was ranked in the top ten or so, I can see where the network would get a lot of hits. But a Texas fb team, as now, showing less than stellar performance, has to lose viewership from the masses that are not the most enthusiastic. Subject matter basically centered on only one school has to be quite challenging for programming.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:10 pm 
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If we go by the talking heads on ESPN discussing the lack of a championship game hurting the Big 12 chances of making a playoff if there are several one loss teams out there at the end of the season including a potential one loss Big 12 champion, could the Big 12 change it mind with expansion?

How often are these so called TV experts really correct on predictions and how much is the push of getting two SEC teams into the playoff and benefiting the ESPN lead SEC network?

Interesting questions! There could be some truth to this if say a one loss Michigan State ran the table in the currently perception football weak Big 10 and squeaked into the four team playoff over say a one loss Baylor or Oklahoma.

If the above were to occur and that is big if, there could be some discussion of the value of having a championship game regardless of the cost of expansion.

Today if I had to make a decision for the Big 12 on a potential two schools which would most likely be the only scenario of a possible expansion of the Big 12, BYU and UConn are probably the best bets if you look at both schools on paper.

I have always thought travel was a concern, however, some recent articles by current Big 12 players make me rethink travel is really not an issue. Is a four hour bus ride any better than a three hour plan ride? The players do not have issues with travel and the perceived concern has more to do with the fans of the school attending away type games appears to be the biggest obstacle. When you look at the Pac 12, there is not much of concern with the fan issue as well since Arizona campus is closer to LSU that its own conference mate Washington. In other words some leagues have to have wide geographical areas to get the teams they want and need.

BYU is probably a no brainer for football and looks very much like a Power five school in every factor including attendance.

UConn on the other hand brings something in basketball. While football has been the major focus with expansion, basketball has benefits as well.

I have often dismissed UConn due to lack of football tradition and potential football requiting in the northeast, there are other factors that could push UConn in the top two teams if the Big 12 in fact wanted to expand back to the actual Big 12 number of schools. UConn is just a small hop from the nations largest TV market and the Big 12 went to NYC for last month sponsored forum of college sports.

On paper of you split the Big 12 back into a North and South division would it be much different compared to the old Big 12?

North: West Virginia, UConn, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU

South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma

On paper in the North division, it would appear WVU, BYU, and UConn would not be much a fall off in competition compared to Nebraska, Missouri, and Colorado. This is especially true with the way Colorado and Nebraska have performed in their new conference homes.

TCU for obvious reason was a very good replacement for Texas A&M if you had to pick a replacement team which the Big 12 needed or wanted four Texas schools.


Who knows if the talking heads are on to something and if the Big 12 will need to expand back to 12.

On paper BYU and UConn would appear to be very good expansion candidates for both major revenue sports of football and basketball if the Big 12 started to look on paper at benefits of what each potential candidate would bring to the table.


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