I rate Rice(xSWC) and Tulane as not under consideration by the B12 poor attendance and lack of performance.
this assumes that what the Big XII is looking for is a program that is competitive on the football field
which I am not sure holds true
even at 10 teams, the Big XII is rated as a top 3 conference, ahead of the ACC and the B1G
will the conference makes more money because it is a top 2 conference? unlikely as this assume that the additional teams will allow the conference to renegotiate its TV contract and or its bowl affiliation.
besides imo only available team that matches the Big XII in competitiveness is BYU
so if the Big XII go to 12 it is because of other circumstances such as need for a conference championship, or because the P5 separates from the G5 and the other P5 conferences all at 14, requires the Big XII do the same so that revenue sharing is equal per program
so the Big XII needs 2-4 teams.
given the limited availability of competitive national brands available, the Big XII will look for
1. academic peers
: here AAU and National universities matter and not regional programs
2. enhancement of recruiting ground and expanded tv markets
~ Florida will be considered, growing population with lots of football recruits
~ Louisiana is a strong football recruiting state & new orleans is a good market for a visiting Big XII team,
~ Ohio opens the midwest (but given WVU location, there is already a midwest presence), is a good football recruitment site, but has been bleeding population, and
~ Utah opens up the mountain west, a growing population, (and BYU is the premiere football brand in Utah, not the Utes)
3. If a program meets the above, it just have to be reasonably competitive, not a national football brand/powerhouse. It will be better for OU/UT to pad their record by beating Rice than a G5 program or a FCS program (which will no longer be on the schedule for many of the P5 programs, and certainly gone after the P5 separates). Getting a conference win will be better for the conference leaders than a non conference win against a patsy when it comes to national standing and consideration for the playoff.
so the perennial Big XII (XIV) would have
top tier: OU and UT
the middle pack: Baylor, BYU, KState, OSU, TCU, TTU, WVU
bottom: KU, ISU, (Rice, Tulane)
once one accepts the reality is that other than BYU there is nothing else that is of the same national standing, negating competitiveness as a value to be considered for Big XII expansion team #12-14
you'll have to ask if not football competitiveness, what will be significant factors other than academic peer staring and market/recruitment ground?
in fact, being able to make a good show but still losing to the current conference leader might be a good thing in a candidate
and who knows, with the infusion of P5 money, these programs could become the next Baylor
like the B1G making long term investment with Rutgers and Maryland, the Big XII (in addition to BYU) could invest
in Tulane, Rice, and a FL school