Mesa Lejos wrote:
If the B12 agreed to dissolve prior to the
expiration of their GoR/contracts on the basis
of an agreement to disburse members to
the other P5 conferences, ALL members
would have to be accommodated, including
Baylor, unless they were expelled beforehand.
Anyone excluded would have a strong lawsuit
against all parties to the agreement, or the
affected school(s) targeted for exclusiion
would have to be paid-off bigtime as part
of the agreement.
The most likely scenario is that nothing is
done prior to the 2023/24+ period. In the total
scheme of expansion deliberations, that is
not particularly a long time away. Timelines
and existing agreements of the other P5
conferences are also factors interplaying.
To alter or negate the Big 12 contract and its terms and conditions, it would require eight members concurring, not the full ten. However, it would have to be done in a way that is seen as not deliberately generating "undue damages" to schools in the minority. Much depends on the language of their charter document.
I seriously doubt a conspiracy could be pulled-off with the other P5 conferences. There are some B12 schools that would not interest any other prime conference. What may happen as 2023/24 approaches, one of more schools in the B12 would declare an exit date that would be effective during the "window" period. Such school(s) would already have worked out, at least informally, admission to another P5 conference.
The B12 could try to prevent such by re-negotiating the TV agreement terms early, and extending the G0R again well in advance of its expiration date. The ACC pursued something similar when, before the GoR, voted to have a 30 million(+) or so exit fee placed upon themselves. FSU and Maryland voted against it. Maryland challenged it, when soon thereafter, they declared their intent to move to the B1G. That led to messy litigation.
When the SEC took Texas A&M and Missouri, they both had to be systematically free to move before they were officially accepted to the conference.
P5 conferences are not going to expand unless they are convinced that by adding school X and school Y, they will be adding 3 to 5 million to the coffers of each existing conference member yearly. How many B12 schools may actually provide that? Two to four, depending on who the new host conference(s) will be. That's where the networks have power in influencing expansion.