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PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:53 am 
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Some funnychoices Tulane to B12 or Syracuse and bc to the B10.Not happening


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:56 am 
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Tulane was reported to have been in talks with the Big XII. I suspect the work that's been done lately with all of their facilities (something in the $220-250m range) may have been either the result of those talks or the propellent. You don't toss that much coin around, Katrina or no, without it producing some sort of significant dialogue.

sec03: a lot of good information in that. So, you don't think WVU stands a chance getting an invitation ever? The strikes against them, deserved or not, are what they are, but are they so out of the race that you think the book's closed?

fighting muskie wrote:
Personally, I think FSU and Clemson ought to be SEC targets even though they duplicate markets because by taking them they deprive the SEC of some of its strongest assets.

If FSU isn't included in Slive's expansion it will be interesting to see whether they remain in the ACC and function similar to the way Texas and Oklahoma do in the Big 12--the anchor school, or does the Big 12, feeling their own vulnerability, expand and take ACC assets.


I think the whole footprint-driven expansion model will quiet down as cable braces for more consumer-friendly options and packaging/bundling. The current model is extortion and unsustainable. When consumers have the say they deserve, it comes back to demand for the content produced, and, thus, a push for content. For the SEC, if they do try to extract ACC programs, it kind of gets tricky...if Duke, UVA, and UNC are never going to happen for the SEC, but NCSU and VT are, as well as Clemson and FSU, who adds value to the conference? You have two money-makers in FSU and CU, but you have the "promised land" expansion into NC and VA with the other two. And who really knows if NCSU and VT really REALLY want to be SEC schools? Do we really believe Missouri wants to be one, even if the B1G started courting them?


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:31 pm 
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The Bishin Cutter wrote:
sec03: a lot of good information in that. So, you don't think WVU stands a chance getting an invitation ever? The strikes against them, deserved or not, are what they are, but are they so out of the race that you think the book's closed?

If the ACC cannot be broken, from UVA on down through Miami, and the SEC was expanding to 16 or so, I could see a scenario whereby WVU may be the last one in due to less desirable alternatives. That means movement in the B12 is open and options for the SEC are tight. I don't think the SEC has an attitude about WVU on the same level as the ACC and B1G have shown, though some similar perceptions may exist. For the SEC, from 1990 on, they simply have had more preferred candidates to accept. Will Alabama, Missouri, or Florida want to fly into Morgantown fairly regularly? WVU's task would be to convince the SEC they can make them a nice profit.

[/quote]I think the whole footprint-driven expansion model will quiet down as cable braces for more consumer-friendly options and packaging/bundling.[/quote]

With trends per streaming and catering to consumer interests to have avenues for independent selections for access to programming, the traditional concept for marketing telecasts shall change/evolve. While conferences may modify or adjust their perceptions about marketing, there's still the competition for in-footprint recruits and keeping an appreciable level of attention from regional and local media.
Frankly, I think, conferences and networks have paid too much attention to major population centers regarding expansion. Look at these efforts by the B1G and the ACC to claim the NYC metro region. On the other hand, look what the media has done to promote U.S. soccer and the World Cup this summer? On this matter, Ann Coulter may have a real point. But still, teams in college sports have largely retained their identities based on localized appeal. Even Notre Dame and the service academies each have somewhat select demographics.
________________
I recently read, but don't recall the article, that the SEC Commissioner Slive and Notre Dame AD Swarbrick worked closely together to advance the playoff format and got their way. Neimus/Bowlsby from the B12 were in tandem--but assuring there were no rules to penalize on not having a CCG . Slive wanted the overall "4 best"--implying potential multiple placements from a given conference. And of course, Swarbrick wanted to make certain the composition was not limited to four separate conference champions. Delany had been favoring the assured top conference placement concept, and looked to the PAC12 as being their ally.

Got to hand it to Notre Dame, they are brilliant operatives. For any given situation or issue, they know how to cultivate allies and IOUs'.

The value of the Rose Bowl for the B1G has been immense through the years. However, the B1G may want to diversity their high level strategic engagements beyond the PAC12. The newer B1G-BE bb challenge is one thing, but do more with those guys down south, particularly for fb. Notre Dame figured that out.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:14 am 
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Kansas City Star article discussing SEC and Big 12 athletic department subsidies at http://www.kansascity.com/sports/colleg ... 84117.html


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:20 am 
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If reading the indications correctly, B12 public schools operating in the black are Kansas, KSU, OU, Texas & TTU. SEC schools in the black would be Ala., Ark., Fla., LSU, Miss. State, Mizzou, and Texas A&M. So even in these two mighty conferences, about half are breaking above even.
Those that are highly subsidized by student tuition and related students fees can't really be called 'making profit'.
There's something very unseemly though, about student tuition going for paying million dollar-plus per year fb & bb coaches. That's better suited for funds from booster groups, alumni contributions specifically for such, gate receipts, portions off vendors, and part revenue from TV.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:59 am 
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I predict that the SEC Commissioner and Staff will love the new cash flow via the SEC Network so much that eventually they won't care about upsetting the ACC's apple cart. As the SEC adds to their National Championships between now and 2027 (year ACC's G.O.R. expires) surely it will eat that them that the Big Ten makes more money before National Championship/Playoff cuts are factored in. This is like LeBron James finally realizing (this NBA off-season) that he deserves the most/maximum in guaranteed money every season. For years, LeBron had been hovering in the 10-15 range of highest paid NBA players by salary. The SEC Network Offices are not located in a current SEC state. It is practically a given that the next SEC school will come from that state--North Carolina. Otherwise why move the offices there? That would be like the Big Ten Network choosing to relocate to South Bend, Indiana.

As we've seen with Texas and to a lesser degree Penn State (approached by ACC), if the state has multiple relevant football programs, no conference is going to take the main school on the first try. So, while North Carolina is quite obviously the best of the bunch, it would be foolish to assume anyone could land them in one try given how much they mean in terms of delivering their state and in this case how much their existence in the ACC allows the ACC to exist. Long story short, North Carolina State is the SEC's 15th and it might actually work out well for both conferences given what I predict will happen next.

ESPN is 50% of the SEC Network. ESPN wants to make the SEC happy but "not kill-the-ACC-and-add-Texas-to-the-SEC" level happy as that would cost them a fortune and lose them ACC hoops in the process. Here's where ESPN's desire to keep SEC payments down kicks in. Florida State. I know what everyone's gut reaction is. "They can't", "they already tried", "no doubling in owned markets" etc. But all I'm saying is lucky number 16 won't be the SEC's call and the SEC won't get any number 15 from the ACC at any point ever without ESPN allowing it to happen. From a business end, an ACC without Florida State costs ESPN less in payments to the ACC and an SEC with Florida State means that ESPN doesn't have to pay for Florida State's true market value (adding a football king program) if they move to the SEC. SEC fans, fear not. With this move, you will absolutely get the SEC Network on Tier 2 Cable Coverage (or better) in the State of North Carolina and whatever National Championships Florida State is then able to win in college football under the SEC banner. Keep in mind, the Playoff won't involve just four teams forever; as capitalism has never once worked under a "less money is more money" principle; so we all very well know that at minimum two SEC schools will get a chance to win the Football National Championship each year. All this means that realistically no amount of regular season losses by any SEC school (within reason) is ever going to diminish the SEC's Playoff Cut or chance to win the National Title. It goes without saying that the "pie slice" for each SEC will increase as that pie slice is determined by the facilitating party (ESPN). So, worry not, SEC pie slices will be guaranteed to increase as per the baker's mouth. In this case, the baker just doesn't want to buy "Florida State ingredients" at their true market value.

So how in the cheese does the ACC benefit? Notre Dame. Florida State leaving (N.C. State leaving does nothing to the ACC) is the impetus for the ACC's marriage proposal to Notre Dame. It's also ESPN's chance to claim all of Notre Dame football and not whatever loose claim them have now. Notre Dame is a bigger and better brand than Florida State will ever dream of being. At true market value, I think Notre Dame is above Texas. Debate that if you want, but it's not my main point here. My main point is that right now, the ACC would drop Florida State for Notre Dame. Right now, the Big Ten would drop Michigan for Notre Dame. If Texas wasn't running the Big 12, they would drop themselves for Notre Dame. Notre Dame is just that valuable from a monetary standpoint. Money is the reason people do crummy jobs. Money is the reason your kids don't die of measles at age eight. In short, no conference commissioner is ever going to decline a willing Notre Dame and Notre Dame's couch roommate status with the ACC is null and void should the ACC's contract with ESPN get restructured in a post-Florida State world. Unless Notre Dame wants to but their Olympic Sports in the Horizon League (again), it's full ACC or no (Division 1 and relevant) Olympic Sports at all.

a) ESPN pays less than Florida State's true value-- win for ESPN
b) SEC Network coverage in State of North Carolina-- win for SEC and ESPN
c) ESPN claims Notre Dame year round-- win for ESPN and ACC
d) Just to make this ever sweeter for the ACC and ESPN, the ACC Network (finally) happens-- win for ACC (haha Raycom now???), costly, but is more ESPN produced content for ESPN
e) SEC Divisions look really nice if you move over Missouri and draw them out with FSU and NC State-- win for SEC fans who travel, SEC fans in general
f) ACC doesn't even have to add anyone after Notre Dame to make money than before-- very nice "expansion" ! Pie slice increase after a net loss of one school! also keeps P5 brass happy as no additional school is added to P5 mix such as Connecticut and Notre Dame loses "too cool for school status".
g) Big Ten's only possible way trump this (now embarrassed for not having the number one brand in the Midwest) is to add Texas who the Pac-12 would give up anything to get-- just a deathmatch really between two non-primary ESPN entities which ESPN has to at least smile at. Pac-12 would be desperate enough to allow the Longhorn Network so in all likelihood, the Big Ten loses.
h) Kansas, Oklahoma, Connecticut? There's not much the previous number one earning conference can do to keep the spot as those are all lower populated states. -- If the Big Ten is ever more Fox-leaning at this point with new Fox Sports Channels, does ESPN want a stronger Big Ten? Doubtful. win for ESPN.
i) SEC Football is completely untouchable barring once in a generation teams from: USC, Texas, Oklahoma or Ohio State -- win for SEC and ESPN who basically has a monopoly on airing the home games of the Vegas favorites to win the National Title each year

SEC East: Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, North Carolina State, Kentucky
SEC West: Texas A&M, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:58 am 
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bigshotbob wrote:
I predict that the SEC Commissioner and Staff will love the new cash flow via the SEC Network so much that eventually they won't care about upsetting the ACC's apple cart. As the SEC adds to their National Championships between now and 2027 (year ACC's G.O.R. expires) surely it will eat that them that the Big Ten makes more money before National Championship/Playoff cuts are factored in. This is like LeBron James finally realizing (this NBA off-season) that he deserves the most/maximum in guaranteed money every season. For years, LeBron had been hovering in the 10-15 range of highest paid NBA players by salary. The SEC Network Offices are not located in a current SEC state. It is practically a given that the next SEC school will come from that state--North Carolina. Otherwise why move the offices there? That would be like the Big Ten Network choosing to relocate to South Bend, Indiana.

As we've seen with Texas and to a lesser degree Penn State (approached by ACC), if the state has multiple relevant football programs, no conference is going to take the main school on the first try. So, while North Carolina is quite obviously the best of the bunch, it would be foolish to assume anyone could land them in one try given how much they mean in terms of delivering their state and in this case how much their existence in the ACC allows the ACC to exist. Long story short, North Carolina State is the SEC's 15th and it might actually work out well for both conferences given what I predict will happen next.

ESPN is 50% of the SEC Network. ESPN wants to make the SEC happy but "not kill-the-ACC-and-add-Texas-to-the-SEC" level happy as that would cost them a fortune and lose them ACC hoops in the process. Here's where ESPN's desire to keep SEC payments down kicks in. Florida State. I know what everyone's gut reaction is. "They can't", "they already tried", "no doubling in owned markets" etc. But all I'm saying is lucky number 16 won't be the SEC's call and the SEC won't get any number 15 from the ACC at any point ever without ESPN allowing it to happen. From a business end, an ACC without Florida State costs ESPN less in payments to the ACC and an SEC with Florida State means that ESPN doesn't have to pay for Florida State's true market value (adding a football king program) if they move to the SEC. SEC fans, fear not. With this move, you will absolutely get the SEC Network on Tier 2 Cable Coverage (or better) in the State of North Carolina and whatever National Championships Florida State is then able to win in college football under the SEC banner. Keep in mind, the Playoff won't involve just four teams forever; as capitalism has never once worked under a "less money is more money" principle; so we all very well know that at minimum two SEC schools will get a chance to win the Football National Championship each year. All this means that realistically no amount of regular season losses by any SEC school (within reason) is ever going to diminish the SEC's Playoff Cut or chance to win the National Title. It goes without saying that the "pie slice" for each SEC will increase as that pie slice is determined by the facilitating party (ESPN). So, worry not, SEC pie slices will be guaranteed to increase as per the baker's mouth. In this case, the baker just doesn't want to buy "Florida State ingredients" at their true market value.

So how in the cheese does the ACC benefit? Notre Dame. Florida State leaving (N.C. State leaving does nothing to the ACC) is the impetus for the ACC's marriage proposal to Notre Dame. It's also ESPN's chance to claim all of Notre Dame football and not whatever loose claim them have now. Notre Dame is a bigger and better brand than Florida State will ever dream of being. At true market value, I think Notre Dame is above Texas. Debate that if you want, but it's not my main point here. My main point is that right now, the ACC would drop Florida State for Notre Dame. Right now, the Big Ten would drop Michigan for Notre Dame. If Texas wasn't running the Big 12, they would drop themselves for Notre Dame. Notre Dame is just that valuable from a monetary standpoint. Money is the reason people do crummy jobs. Money is the reason your kids don't die of measles at age eight. In short, no conference commissioner is ever going to decline a willing Notre Dame and Notre Dame's couch roommate status with the ACC is null and void should the ACC's contract with ESPN get restructured in a post-Florida State world. Unless Notre Dame wants to but their Olympic Sports in the Horizon League (again), it's full ACC or no (Division 1 and relevant) Olympic Sports at all.


bigshotbob, some of your predictions appear within a perceptual scope of possibilities with some interesting rationales if a given scenario falls a certain way; others I would regard as free speculation. Nothing is fluid right now, but they may be doing some exploratory, preliminary talking.
As I conveyed in an earlier post, I anticipate some collaborative deal shall be attempted involving the SEC, ACC, ESPN, and perhaps Notre Dame. There's already tweet rumors being generated that ND will join the ACC for full fb sometime after the 2017-18 fb season. (We know how those unsubstantiated tidbits get going....someone from Florida or wherever supposedly leaks insider information to someone in West Virginia who......_)

While I cannot see all the specifics falling a particular way, I believe the theme does offer merit.

1) Agree, the ACC could lose NCSU and not particularly miss them. NCSU would do much for the SEC's market expansion. NCSU and South Carolina at one time had been a close rivalry. NCSU could be part of a deal. VPI? That may be a bridge too far.
2) Notre Dame or not, I would find it difficult for the ACC to bargain FSU away. That's a bread N butter fb school for the ACC. And the SEC would still be concerned about market duplication. I had suggested Miami as a compromise by default. The ACC is going to want to stay as contiguous as possible. Miami is still in Florida, but south Florida is a major market for recruiting.
3) The ACC will only add if ND fully commits or lose somebody beforehand. They're counting on that GoR, and only a comprehensive deal involving a lot of network money and cross-conference cooperation could possibly change that. With a ND full commitment, replacements could include Cincy or UConn or an arrangement with Navy. Involving WVU would complicate the negotiations because it would involve another conference whereby ESPN would have less direct influence.
4) The question concerning Texas and/or Oklahoma ultimately coming to the SEC could still be remotely possible, but I would bet strongly against it. It involves so many conditions, demands, attitudes, and tangential accommodations, nothing appears practical about it. I believe the SEC is looking into the State of North Carolina as the top priority.
5) For ND to budge on anything, it will take formidable, collective pressure; not just carrots and getting little in return. ND has proven time and time again, they are savvy operatives and don't mind being sly about it if such satisfies their agenda. If conferences and network executives approach them with excessive deference, Notre Dame will only accept the parts that fit into their current scheme.


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