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 Post subject: FBS Realignment: 2025
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:56 pm 
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Hiya folks, new on the board. Here's what I see as a plausible scenario for the next round of realignment. I'm definitely no expert, so feel free to poke holes in it!

The dominoes fall when the Big 12 GOR expires in 2025. The Pac-12 is first to strike, becoming the Pac-16 by acquiring Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. The rest of the Big 12 is up for grabs. The Big Ten invites Kansas to make 15. Iowa State is a suitable add but offers nothing new. Instead, the Big Ten scores a coup by poaching Missouri from the SEC. West Virginia is added by the SEC to replace Missouri. Although the SEC already has a foothold in Texas with A&M, they could become the dominant conference in the state by adding any two of Baylor, Houston, and TCU. The latter two are invited, while small-market Baylor is shunned. The ACC must keep up by moving to 16 as well. Notre Dame is at last compelled to join as a full member. Cincinnati is chosen as #16 over Connecticut in order to improve the football strength of the now-weakest P4 conference. Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State fall down to the American.

Each P4 conference divides its teams into four pods, which rotate annually between divisions to allow each team to play all other 15 teams in the conference within two years (based on a 9-game conference schedule). In one year, you have the Northeast (North + East Pods) and Southwest (South + West Pods) Divisions, and the next year, you have the Northwest and Southeast Divisions. The four winners of the conference championship games automatically receive bids into the CFP.

So here's what we get:

ACC
East Pod: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
North Pod: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South Pod: Florida State, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest
West Pod: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Permanent crossovers: Duke/Wake Forest, NC State/North Carolina

Big Ten
East Pod: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North Pod: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
South Pod: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
West Pod: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

(Yes, the South Pod isn't very "south," but there's no help for it.)

Permanent crossovers: Illinois/Northwestern, Michigan/Ohio State

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

Permanent crossovers: none

SEC
East Pod: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North Pod: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South Pod: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West Pod: Houston, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M

Permanent crossovers: Alabama/Tennessee, Auburn/Georgia

This really only works if Texas and Oklahoma go to the Pac. I'm not confident that Missouri would defect, even though they originally preferred the Big Ten and the SEC has no exit penalties. And the SEC simply might not choose to move from 14 to 16.

So what does everyone think? Any questions, just let me know!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Certainly plausible (as are about 2 dozen other scenarios).

Missouri wanted to join the Big Ten, but was rejected, so I'm not sure that hard feeling don't linger.

I also might change up your Big Ten pods to put Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota together, but that's WAY down the road.

Lots of politics involved in all of this.


WELCOME TO THE BOARD !!!!


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:45 pm 
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And here's a map to go with the scenario: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x2m8uyqutzx4r ... 9.png?dl=0


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:54 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
Certainly plausible (as are about 2 dozen other scenarios).

Missouri wanted to join the Big Ten, but was rejected, so I'm not sure that hard feeling don't linger.

I also might change up your Big Ten pods to put Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota together, but that's WAY down the road.

Lots of politics involved in all of this.


WELCOME TO THE BOARD !!!!


Thanks for the welcome! Fair point about Missouri's rejection, but even they must have seen Nebraska was a better choice at the time. And time heals all wounds. ;)

So you'd have Illinois, Missouri, Northwestern, and Wisconsin in a pod together as well? I didn't want to break up both Minnesota/Wisconsin and Iowa/Wisconsin, since only one divisional crossover would likely be permitted as an annual matchup.

Definitely lots of politics, but that's unavoidable.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:09 pm 
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I think only Kansas state would go to the AAC. I think Umass would make 14. I'm wondering if Wichita state adds football and replaces Navy.
Though I personally think that 14 all sports membership is the best case scenario for the P-5 conferences. I think Texas will go "independent" like Notre Dame. Either tied to the Big 12 or southland. I think UTSA or another Texas school replaces Texas in the Big 12. I think then both Colorado and Cincinnati are added to the Big 12.
I think Utah State replaces Colorado to ease Travel. I would then add Hawaii and Boise State. Both Boise State and Hawaii are part of the Northern division. Hawaii allows for a week 0 game conference or non conference. A early season conference game opens up a potential late season non-conference game.
MWC adds NMSU and UTEP. Adds Louisiana Tech.
Sun belt readds Western Kentucky and North Texas.
AAC adds rice and UMASS. Drops Navy football.Adds Wichita state football.
C-USA adds FCS call-up schools or tries to add Army and Navy.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:38 am 
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Always fun to look at potential realignment. I did four separate posts on my blog last year about what could potentially happen (although I can be pretty sure none of my scenarios will end up 100% happening):

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/05/31/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-1/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/03/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-2/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-3/

https://bossmansblog.wordpress.com/2016/06/13/where-we-are-headed-in-college-football-part-4/

I did like what you had there nerdlinger and I kind of agree that the top end of FBS are going to continue to move towards becoming it's own top division (and the only division that would have access to the national championship).


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:07 am 
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The NCAA format for tournaments seems to require half of all slots go to at-large teams.

I'm picturing the P5 consolidating to a P4,
an 8-team playoff with the 4 P4 champs getting automatic bids.
then the 4 at-large bids gong to mostly P4 runner-up teams and MAYBE an occasional G5 team.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:39 pm 
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tute79 wrote:
The NCAA format for tournaments seems to require half of all slots go to at-large teams.

I'm picturing the P5 consolidating to a P4,
an 8-team playoff with the 4 P4 champs getting automatic bids.
then the 4 at-large bids gong to mostly P4 runner-up teams and MAYBE an occasional G5 team.

Would a 12 team tournament work? The P-5 conferences and 1 G-5 team and 6 at large. The top 4 ranked conference champs get a bye to the second round and host the second round. The other P-5 and G-5 team hosts a first round game and the Two best at large hosts the first round. The Semi finals and final can be held like they are now.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Going to 12 or 16 would be adding 2 more rounds.

The CFP can't run too late without encroaching on the NFL playoffs.

So these additional round(s) might have to fit in around Christmas, and I think the bowl people might be fearful that and will moan about having to travel in there....
Some of the big bowl sites are actually scheduling a second minor bowl game in there now.

There seems to be a lot of consensus to move to 8 ASAP. I think it could be done after the first 6 years of the CFP (after the first complete rotation of semi-final sites).
Those 6 bowls (Orange, Gator, Peach, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta) could then realign so that the 4 currently not scheduled to host CFP Semi-finals in a given year could host quarter-final games. But those 4 would have to move from New Years time frame to a week earlier. Again - the scheduling issue....


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:11 pm 
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I am not so sure the Big 12 shall disassemble in 23/24.
Those schools really don't have it bad, and a new contract
then may be enough to discourage departures. The B1G
and SEC will pay more, but the discrepancy may not be
extreme. Texas and/or Oklahoma moving would create a
big change across the board.

While this forum appears B1G favorable, the conference
is not going to just pick whomever they want. Mizzou will
very likely remain in the SEC. If the B1G wants KU, time
shall tell. Their #16, could be geographically complicated
unless they choose to modify their stated criteria.

The PAC 12 could put a modified proposal back on the table
from about eight years ago for luring UT, TTU, OU, & oSu.
They later turned down a pitch by OU & oSu. First turn for
the PAC12 is no guarantee. The B1G and SEC would also
be in the game. I would not dismiss OU & oSu getting
SEC offers in 2023 as a both a defensive and advancing move.
That geographically splits the B12.

It is doubtful the politics of Oklahoma and Kansas would
agree to changes whereby oSu and KSU end up being in a
diminished conference, particularly if results leave them
with non-P5 status. In Texas, there will be interests to
protect TTU, a state school.

The SEC would not be interested in adding Texas private
schools such as TCU and Baylor. Houston would not be
pursued either. The SEC would not want to dilute their value.
Texas to the SEC doesn't appear plausible for now, given
the differences, some attitudinal. However, in several years,
some of that could change on both sides. Regardless, the
LHN will still be active, which may limit chosen options
for UT.

The ACC last year strengthened their GoR and extended the
time-frame to 2034 or so. None of those schools are moving.
If Notre Dame commits to FT ACC fb by then, expect #16
to be WVU if available. UConn and Cincy could be options.
ECU will not get voted into the ACC.

Major conference expansion could embrace other schools not
from within the P5. UConn, BYU (if they modify their honor
code and offer other compromises), Colorado State, and a
few others such as UCF, USF, SDSU, BSU, and Houston,
could upgrade in conference placements. If the B12 has a
couple of departures, or decides to really expand, there are
new opportunities for some schools from the AAC and/or MWC.

Again, I expect the B12 to survive. But unless they make some
developmental moves which they are not prone to do
collectively, they will falter and it will be their own fault.

Expansion is cautionary with major conferences. Changes do
happen every several years or so, but no conference that is very
stable is going to take big risks with their products, nor should they.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:47 pm 
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ACC:
BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame
Duke, NC, NC State, Wake Forest
Miami, Florida St, Ga Tech, Clemson
Virginia, Va Tech. Louisville, Cincinnati


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